Possible trades could make draft night nutty

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The recent trend of trades in the NFL has subsided for now, but it could continue. Specifically, it could continue on the first night of the draft.

Despite no clear consensus on how the top of the draft will or should unfold, specific teams eventually will finalize their boards, and presumably will have a short list of players they covet above all others. Some teams may decide to make a move up the board, with the ideal timing being when the pick they are acquiring is on the clock.

In hindsight, the Jets’ decision to spring from No. 6 to No. 3 before the draft starts could be the aberration. The better move when acquiring a pick always is to get the pick at a time when no one else can react to the development by trying to acquire a higher pick.

The most obvious candidate to make a move up is the Bills, who already have jumped from No. 21 to No. 12 in a climb that most see as a stepping stone to something much higher. The Giants remain the most likely partner at No. 2, but other teams could be interested in the pick, and the Giants have no reason to rush a trade, given the reality that the offers will get better, not worse, as the draft approaches.

Other teams in the top 10, primarily those who don’t need a top-flight quarterback, could be looking to trade down and stockpile picks; the question becomes which quarterbacks will be left after the first three or four picks are made. Which makes those types of trades even more conducive to waiting and seeing how things pan out.

Then there are the two veteran players generating the most pre-draft trade buzz: Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski. As to both players, the ideal timing to move them for picks would be to do so when the highest selection to be obtained is on the clock. This would require a deal to be done late in the process — or with complete and total secrecy. As to Beckham, that won’t be easy to accomplish, since he’ll want a new contract as part of the new location. Still, for both the Giants and the Patriots, waiting until the best pick they’d get is on the clock provides maximum value.

When it comes to acquiring draft picks, waiting until the pick is on the clock always provides maximum value. Which means that there could be a rash of trades in 23 days in Dallas, when the 2018 draft commences.

15 responses to “Possible trades could make draft night nutty

  1. So much talk about Gronkowski being traded, it feels like a fait accompli… If so Patriot reporters are going to miss the guy as well as the fans. He was colorful on a team full of quiet assassins.

  2. Takes 3 things for that type of trade to happen: a team willing to trade down, a team willing to trade up … and a player they covet enough to trade away multiple other draft picks for. Not sure those conditions are present in this draft.

  3. .
    I think that the Jets were driven by the “fear factor” of being shutout at QB if they remained at #6. Or, they were fearful that with another move the picture could change dramatically and the price would rise beyond their means. Last year Arizona GM Steve Keim stood pat at #13 while Kansas City and Houston traded up to take Pat Mahomes and Deshaun Watson at #10 and #12 respectively. Meanwhile, the napping Cards ended up with LB Hasaan Riddick.
    .

  4. I speculate this is a place-holder article so that in three weeks you can say, “I told you so.” To the future folks reading the article and comments, my prediction is that while trades are inevitable, I believe most will be draft pick related trades, and not so many high profile player trades like this article references (OBJ, Gonk).
    Trades will happen, media pundits will look to boost their credibility- but nobody knows exactly what will happen until each team is on the clock. It’s the wild west of player acquisition, which is why it is appealing to fans. Get cha popcorn ready.

  5. The big difference with the trades the Patriots made in the past is that NOBODY and I mean NOBODY saw them coming. That alone makes Gronk being traded less likely to happen.

    I’m playing the same speculation game but I’m following the rules that history has set for us. Trading Brady (Lord please no) would fit historically better as that would be something that NOBODY is talking about.

  6. Trading a high #1 pick for a two year TE (Gronk) or a one year receiver (OBJ) is an awful lot to give up without any guarantee of a long term contract.

  7. Aska Feld says:
    April 3, 2018 at 6:54 am
    So much talk about Gronkowski being traded, it feels like a fait accompli… If so Patriot reporters are going to miss the guy as well as the fans. He was colorful on a team full of quiet assassins.

    ——————————-
    Not as much talk as there as about Belichick leaving and Brady retiring, and those things didnt happen either. And of course there are the annual reports about how ‘this time’ the Patriots are falling apart the dynasty is over the decline starts now. Thats just how it all sounds when you have people dreaming up their wishes and then reporting them as fact.

  8. Jazzeppi says:
    April 3, 2018 at 9:19 am
    Trading a high #1 pick for a two year TE (Gronk) or a one year receiver (OBJ) is an awful lot to give up without any guarantee of a long term contract.

    ————————-
    Well then the good news is OBJ insists a long term contract has to be in place. The bad news is he thinks it should be for 18 million a year.

  9. “The better move when acquiring a pick always is to get the pick at a time when no one else can react to the development by trying to acquire a higher pick.” “When it comes to acquiring draft picks, waiting until the pick is on the clock always provides maximum value.”

    Congrats, you just managed to completely contradict yourself in a single post. So the Jets made the “worse” move by trading up now, even though you then go on to state that the price gets higher when teams wait until the pick is on the clock. I’d say the logic for the Jets was pretty obvious then: they know they would be happy with ANY of three prospects, and so preferred going with the lower cost now than paying more knowing precisely which guy they would get. Duh.

  10. dal1as says:
    April 3, 2018 at 8:39 am
    The broncos are begging anyone to trade up with them. They want nothing to do with number 5.

    ——————
    Lol, if they want to use that in a trade for Gronk I think Pat fans would suddenly be ok with letting him go. But my guess is they kerp it. They do have needs.

  11. Gronkowski is likely to be traded, and the story has viable, verifiable legs.

    This Odell stuff was a complete lie made up by a local (alleged) “reporter” here who has it out for him, and not a single viable source has heard anything but facts to the contrary from Beckham or the team. He’s not going anywhere.

  12. factschecker says:
    April 3, 2018 at 9:10 am
    The big difference with the trades the Patriots made in the past is that NOBODY and I mean NOBODY saw them coming. That alone makes Gronk being traded less likely to happen.

    I’m playing the same speculation game but I’m following the rules that history has set for us. Trading Brady (Lord please no) would fit historically better as that would be something that NOBODY is talking about.
    ———–

    You should WANT someone to overpay for Brady, the system QB. He’s at the end of the line and would get exposed on the team dumb enough to give up too many pieces to acquire him.

    Gronkowski has far more trade value.

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