Bill Belichick: Draft trade chart has changed, but most teams are on the same page

Getty Images

When the Cowboys acquired a bounty of draft picks in several trades to build a roster that won three Super Bowls in the 1990s, they devised a chart that assigned point values to every pick in the draft to determine how valuable picks were, and what would constitute a fair trade. That chart made its way around the league and was eventually used by everyone, but it has changed through the years.

Those changes, caused by things like the rookie salary rules and teams beginning to see less value in moving all the way up to the top picks in the draft, have resulted in a new consensus about what constitutes a fair trade of draft picks.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick has been around long enough to see the changes in the chart, but he says those changes have now spread around the league thoroughly enough that every team is more or less on the same page.

“One of the problems with the draft chart, if we all have our own draft charts, which is fine, sometimes it’s hard to make a trade because, ‘Well, my draft chart says this. Well, your draft chart says that,’ whereas if we all use the same chart, we all agree on basic value,” Belichick said. “Then it’s a lot easier to get what we call, I’d say, a fair trade, which I’d say over the last few years the majority of the trades that we’ve studied have been within a few percentage points one way or the other of being the correct value for the trade. In some cases in later rounds, sometimes those get a little bit skewed just because you have fewer picks. So if you don’t have many picks to work with then you can only use the ones that you have, but a lot of times in the earlier round picks, a sixth round choice will get thrown in or given back or something like that to sort of balance out the value of the trade. I’d say, overall, in the last couple of years, as we’ve studied the trade values, they’ve been pretty consistent with what our evaluations show on the trade chart, which I think is what the majority of the teams use. Relative to resetting the draft, the trade chart, I’d say there’s been a little bit of a modification there.”

The Patriots have two first-round picks and two second-round picks, so they’ll surely be consulting the chart often on draft weekend, as they should be major players in trade talks.

31 responses to “Bill Belichick: Draft trade chart has changed, but most teams are on the same page

  1. Does this trade value also consider the Redskins three first round draft picks to move up from the 6th pick to the 2nd pick?

  2. One of my favorite Belichick trades was when he gave up pick #29 (Cordarelle Patterson to Minn), and got picks that produced Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan, and a 7th rounder which was traded for LeGarette Blount. And now they acquire Patterson for a mere swap of 5th and 6th rounders. If he has a good year and signs elsewhere next year as a FA, they will receive a compensatory pick.

  3. Every time I see him now, I think of his inability to get a stop against the Giants or Eagles as much as the wins. Mostly the Eagles and Butler though, as not letting him play even a snap was a straight spite petty move, and everyone knows it. That’s not how you lead, Bill.

  4. Shouldn’t this guy of been kicked out of the league by now for multiple cheating infractions? I guess when Goodell hangs out at the owners house special perks are given.

  5. .
    There’s a misguided perception that Belichick fleeces all the league’s GMs in the trade market. It’s a false belief. In most cases Belichick’s deals are value for value. However, there have been a few times when the Patriots side of the transaction works out better than the other side.
    .

  6. The draft chart is a pile of crap. The math works out that a mid to late round 2nd round pick is worth any other teams 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th round picks. Clearly, that is just garbage.

  7. Bill is saying the right things. But rest assured, Bill is looking deeper at the true value of the draft picks to HIS TEAM as well as how many dumb teams don’t know what they are doing nor focus too much on the bottom line of what it takes THEIR teams to win the SB! Most of them play this thing that Bill DOES NOT engage in is media MARKET talk. If a player buys into that-HE WILL NOT BE A PATRIOT. I.e. Danny Amendola.

  8. isn’t this similar to price fixing, which is collusion? I get that a range of values will eventually settle down to some standard deviation, but if every team uses the same trade chart, how do players stand a chance of increasing their compensation?

  9. Saw an interesting show about the time he traded a 4th to the Raiders for Randy Moss. It originally was a 6th round pick because some Raiders exec called Belichick up and made that as his opening offer. Al Davis had to intervene and push it up to a 4th. I guess my point is that the Raiders can’t read charts or evaluate talent.

  10. Nice try Bill.
    Your late 2 first round picks won’t get you anywhere near a top 10 pick to get one of the top QB’s in this draft.

  11. bullogne says:
    Nice try Bill. Your late 2 first round picks won’t get you anywhere near a top 10 pick to get one of the top QB’s in this draft.
    __________________________________________

    Well, you’d be right, IF he thought like you.
    The way Bill works with so much less, there’s no doubt he’ll be leveraging.

  12. “if every team uses the same trade chart, how do players stand a chance of increasing their compensation?”

    Um, they’re talking about draft picks, not free agents. All picks have slotted rookie wage scale payouts. They’re not going to increase the value of what they get paid. The only variance on this is where they are picked ie round and pick in a given round.

  13. patsfiend says:
    April 14, 2018 at 6:53 am
    Every time I see him now, I think of his inability to get a stop against the Giants or Eagles as much as the wins. Mostly the Eagles and Butler though, as not letting him play even a snap was a straight spite petty move, and everyone knows it. That’s not how you lead, Bill.
    ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
    Petty? He was so sick he couldn’t travel with the team which has doctors. He seemed to also have problems making curfew. I think if you were a GM or coach that you would also be the water boy for your back-up a band punter. Would Butler have been the difference in the game? Nothing the Pats defense did was slowing the Eagles offense down. Perhaps hyper would have gotten lit up to like he did against the Jags.

  14. its the trade that BB didnt make that probably cost him a championship……2006 al davis was trying to trade randy moss or jerry porter to the pats and i guess al wanted too much and the deal didnt happen…..that year in the afc championship reche caldwell dropped a perfect pass right in his hands on the way to a winning drive…next year they made the trade for moss

  15. I hate the Patriots and I think the Belichick “mystique” is lame. However I like it when he speaks about football, the guy has a great perspective on so many things, I learn something new every time he opens up.

    For instance, what he’s basically saying that the Patriots have two charts, plus charts detailing their approximation of each team’s chart. The Patriots then will use at least three draft trade value charts in evaluating any deal. They have their chart, of what they personally value. They have a league chart, which tracks the changing values over time, established with each new trade. Then they have their chart detailing the trade history of the team/personnel they are dealing with. That’s pretty thorough for just one small part of the GM’s job.

    Also, he constantly says “we.” He clearly delegates well and must be a heck of a leader. There’s not many people I bother parsing but he’s a fascinating guy.

  16. watchem313552556 says:
    I’m convinced B.B. has photos of Roger boy.
    ————————————————–
    If he didn’t, Brady would be getting tested every week.

  17. “…next year they made the trade for moss…”

    Uhhhh…and STILL didn’t win the SB!! So how did Belichick failing to pull the trigger on the trade a year prior “cost him a championship”?? I swear, some of y’all act like BB is a god. Even your cracked theories assume way too much credit to him.

  18. Jets traded up ????

    It would be interesting to hear BB really open up and say what he thinks about the Jets giving up all those picks to move up to #3 and still probably not end up with the QB they really want.

    For me, The Patriots have shown beyond anything what a great job they do in assessing and valuing talent over multiple years, and knowing when to trade draft picks away for veterans when a draft class is weak, and just doing a great job in squeezing the best out of a veteran knowing their value. Wish my team was half as good…….

    Good example this year; trading Cooks for a 1, knowing Patterson will be able to cover maybe half of Cooks snaps….

    Don’t like the Pats; but boy are they good at getting the best out of players; (and knowing when to get rid of them)……..

  19. vaphinfan says:
    April 14, 2018 at 7:30 am
    Shouldn’t this guy of been kicked out of the league by now for multiple cheating infractions? I guess when Goodell hangs out at the owners house special perks are given.
    ——————–
    How about last year when the Phins deliberately left the tarp off the field for predicted storms to create another Mudgate? Or 2009 when Phins improperly got hold of a secret tape of Brady’s calls, so as to get the jump on him and mimic calls to cause false starts? Or go back to all of Dirty Don Shula’s mega-cheating (and the original mudgate). By comparison, Belichick is “guilty” of having a camera on the sidelines for the first 15mins of week1 game after the rules changed – and even then, Tagliabue (who wrote the rule before he left) said that’d be ok, you just couldn’t use that video during the game, but Fraudger (who now wants all teams to have that) retrospectively reinterpreted the rule in orfer to get Jets’ enemy No.1. Keep taking the salt tablets dude.

  20. Belichick is being honest, and the fluid ‘value’ chart can be used to finagle something out of an over-anxious potential trade partner. To be fairly assessed, the chart should be by pick number rather than by round, as this also accounts for compensatory picks. A Cleveland 7th round pick is about as good as an Eagles 6th rounder.

  21. Got to love any Patriots fan who tries to slam Bill after all the Super Bowls they have won. Get used to being like every other team when Brady retires or starts declining. It will be funny when half of their fans jump ship.

  22. Saw an interesting show about the time he traded a 4th to the Raiders for Randy Moss. It originally was a 6th round pick because some Raiders exec called Belichick up and made that as his opening offer. Al Davis had to intervene and push it up to a 4th. I guess my point is that the Raiders can’t read charts or evaluate talent.

    ___________________________________________
    Yep Lol. It just so happened that executive was one of Belichick’s best friends name MIKE LOMBARDI. As the story goes, (my sub was getting ready to deploy for 6 months so we were training out to sea and i missed the draft), this began because Lombardi, who was the senior executive to Al Davis, had intended on selecting MEGATRON 1st overall instead of Jamarcus Russell. Lombardi didnt think Russel was worth the #1 overall selection. Lombardi had talks with us and the Packers about Randy. When Al Davis heard the news, he demanded Lombardi acquire no lower than a 4th round selection. Of course, Davis drafted Russel as well. Lombardi resigned at the end of the 2007 season. It comes circle when you think about it though. In 2009, we traded Richard Seymour for the raiders 1st round selection. We obviously could not afford Richard, but man, the defense sucked from 2009-2011.

  23. The chart value isn’t as important as the talent and vision of the person making the picks.

  24. tootitan says:
    April 14, 2018 at 1:43 pm

    “we all agree on a basic value.”
    Isn’t that collusion?
    ———————–

    How would agreeing on draft pick value constitute collusion?

  25. mmack66 says:
    April 14, 2018 at 6:08 pm
    tootitan says:
    April 14, 2018 at 1:43 pm

    “we all agree on a basic value.”
    Isn’t that collusion?
    ———————–

    How would agreeing on draft pick value constitute collusion?

    ========

    I guess you could say that “making a trade” is “agreeing on a value” and “collusion”… but that is what every trade has always been.

    OMG, every team is “colluding”, stop the presses!!

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to leave a comment. Not a member? Register now!