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Punters off to big start indoors, in good weather

Indianapolis Colts rookie Pat McAfee is off to a big start this season, contributing to the Colts' special teams both as a punter and on kickoffs.

"He was a big factor," Colts coach Jim Caldwell said after the Colts beat the 49ers, per Len Pasquarelli of ESPN.com. "We needed everything he gave us."

McAfee is looking like a good pick for the Colts in the seventh round of this year's draft, but in pointing out his good start, it should also be pointed out that he's been kicking indoors or in good weather outside.

Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders points that out in noting that Pasquarelli's larger thesis -- that punters around the league are on pace for a historically great year -- is flawed. Punters are on pace to have better numbers than in seasons past because punters regularly put up better numbers in the first half of the season than they do in the second. When bad weather hits in November and December, punting numbers go down.

In fact, Schatz pointed out the same issues two years ago, when Pasquarelli wrote a similar piece on punters being off to big starts. A story about kickers being on pace to have a great season could be written in early November of every season. And then those same kickers will fall off that pace when the winter winds start whipping their kicks around.

So, yes, Pat McAfee is a good-looking rookie for the Colts. But a punter's performance through half of a season shouldn't be taken as part of a larger trend.

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