Week 16 Morning Aftermath: Suh sweepstakes not yet resolved

With the Lions and the Rams losing again on Sunday — and the Bucs and Browns winning — only Detroit and St. Louis remain in the running for the first overall pick in the draft.

With the Lions at 2-13 and the Rams at 1-14, a loss by the Lions to the Bears and a win by the Rams against the Niners would leave Detroit and St. Louis knotted up at 2-14.

Given that the Rams beat the Lions, some are assuming that the Lions automatically would “lose” the tiebreaker, and thus “win” the clear shot at Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.

But it’s not that simple.  Playoff tiebreakers take a back seat when when it comes to figuring out draft order. 

For draft position, ties initially are broken by strength of schedule.  For present purposes, “strength of schedule” refers to the total won-loss-tie performance of a team’s full slate of opponents.

As of right now, the Lions’ opponents are a combined 122-114.  The Rams’ opponents?  125-113.

Advantage Lions.

Barring a tie in Monday night’s game between the Vikings and the Bears, the Lions’ opponents will move to 124-116 (they played the two teams twice each, so there will be two wins and two losses to add to the total), and the Rams’ opponents will be 126-114 (the Rams played the Vikings and the Bears once).

Advantage Lions, albeit slimmer.

To get to a 2-14 tie, the Lions will have to lose, which would move their opponents’ record to 126-116, since they played the Bears twice.  The Rams would have to win, moving their foes’ combined mark to 126-116, since they played the 49ers twice.

Advantage neither.

The Week 17 outcomes of the other teams on the Lions’ and Rams’ schedules would then come into play.  In the end, the team with the lower strength of schedule would get the first overall pick.

If the combined records of the Lions’ and Rams’ opponents remain equal, then the head-to-head tiebreaker would apply, pushing Detroit into the top spot in the draft due to their loss to the Rams.

So for this weekend at least, Lions fans should be pulling for the Rams to beat the 49ers, and for the Lions to do against the Bears what the Lions have done 29 out of 31 times since the start of the 2008 season.

Lions fans also need to hope that the Lions’ 2009 opponents do the same or worse in Week 17 than the teams that the Rams have played.

27 responses to “Week 16 Morning Aftermath: Suh sweepstakes not yet resolved

  1. Really?
    You sat down and thought all this through for these two diggleberry teams?
    You really need to get a hobby Mike.
    Do you really think he will take a 2-14 team and make them a playoff contender?
    Ive taken sh*ts with more meaning than this article.

  2. Lions should get Suh, even if they have the #2 pick. If the Rams pick #1, they’ll likely spend it on a QB (most likely Clausen). None of the Rams’ current QB’s is a good NFL starting QB.
    So Detroit should be happy to get Suh at #2 (for #2 money) instead of having the questionable honor of having the top-pick in back to back years…

  3. It would come down to a coin flip, not head-to-head. In the 2007 draft, TB and Cleveland both had the same record, and same SOS. Also, the Bucs beat Cleveland straight-up. But it came down to a coin toss at the combine, to which Bruce Allen brought his own coin, and subsequently lost the flip. Some speculate that he used a trick coin in order to intentionally get a lower pick and not have to spend as much money (true story.)

  4. Suh will not be the overall first pick. His stock will drop like so many others, last year it was Smith.

  5. Funny how some people rip on a article be written but take time to comment on it.
    Mike needs a hobby? Uh I think he has one. One that is getting him paid and you have took time out of your life to make an account and be a part of.
    Also no QB is going #1. None are worth pick/money. Suh is #1 no matter who gets it.

  6. I’d like him on my team. He seems to be as close to a can’t miss prospect as it comes. However, there really aren’t many of those out there.

  7. Birdman, open invite ?
    And did I hear someone project Clausen as the top QB prospect ? I don’t think so.
    Let Suh fall to Dallas.

  8. This is such typical NFL BullSh!t…3 years ago the Bucs tied with the Browns and the 3rd and 4th picks were decided by a coin toss. Did they change the tiebreaker??

  9. BigEasy33 says:
    If I was Suh I would get caught smoking weed so I could drop into a better situation!!!
    Classic! lol

  10. Either way, the team with the Number 1 pick should try to trade it away. That’s not to suggest this would be easy. Still, some teams may be interested in the cost of trading up to nab Suh. I’m sure the speculation will begin as soon as the Pro Bowl is over!

  11. # geek says: December 28, 2009 3:38 PM
    Either way, the team with the Number 1 pick should try to trade it away. That’s not to suggest this would be easy. Still, some teams may be interested in the cost of trading up to nab Suh. I’m sure the speculation will begin as soon as the Pro Bowl is over!
    perhaps you should check to see exactly when the probowl is before others start speculating on which orifice your head is shoved up.
    There is a lot of time between now and the draft and a ton of things can happen. untill the guy is signed to a contract, lets not get carried away. and nothing is saying that the guy doesn’t bust out either, similar to reggie bush.

  12. Rams are going to take Suh if they are smart. They will have the first 2nd round pick where they can take a QB; Colt McCoy may still be up for grabs here, and a very underated QB in Tony Pike can be drafted here. Rams have the ability to really turn things around next season… 6-10 not too shabby

  13. Rams will trade the #1 pick to Tampa for Tampa’s #4 and 1 of Tampa’s 2 second round picks BECAUSE the Rams know the Bucs are drooling over Suh AND because the Rams know that the Lions, Chiefs and Bucs will not draft a QB in the first.
    Of course if Radio makes the decision he may trade away the first 3 picks for Bert Emanual. Radio is an idiot.

  14. Suh will go to the Rams, Okung to the Lions – Lord knows Stafford needs him and the Bucs take McCoy or Berry depending upon how they send up with Cleveland in front or behind them.

  15. I really like the new format for the aftermath, by the way.
    As for the draft order, no way my Rams beat the 49ers with Null at QB. They’re in the “lets see what the youg guys have and evaluate for next year,” mindset. Of the 45 players active for Sunday’s game, 30 entered the league as either a sixth- or seventh-round draft pick or an undrafted free agent. So no controversy regarding the #1 pick – Rams have it locked up.

  16. Suh will have to fall off a cliff not to be taken first overall. Yes, the Rams need a quarterback, but they’ve past on quarterbacks the last two years. Picking at the top of round 2 I thik they can find a quarterback there that can get killed just as easy as any of the other quarterbacks. Right now, Claussen and Bradofred are the only two “locks” for the first round.

  17. and after wading through all this, there is still the possibility Suh, like any draft pick, will be a bust.

  18. No way St. Louis uses another top pick on the D-line. That’s way too much cap money tied into one position group. They don’t have an NFL caliber quarterback and rule number one of the draft is you don’t pass on a franchise quarterback if you don’t have one. They’ll leave Suh in the conversation all the way to the draft to try and keep the contract they pay to Clausen, Bradford, etc slightly more manageable.
    People will say, well what about their money tied into Bulger, etc. Next year is uncapped and since his contract is over before their other big money players (mostly first round linemen), they can dump him next year and pay without affecting the salary cap.
    The Lions already have Suh wrapped up, you can take that to the bank. I’m willing to bet you that the Lions are concentrating on who to take at 34 and beyond more than anything. They’re also probably trying to gauge the market for Suh to see what kind of trade possibilities are there.
    PS: Thanks for writing this article, even though some snobby bitches will read the article title, click and read, and then bitch anyways. Sounds like they’re the ones that are mentally challenged.

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