Week 17 Morning Aftermath: 50 percent turnover rate persists

When it comes to predicting the teams that will make it to the playoffs in a given year, we try to consider the reality that, historically, 50 percent of the teams that made it to the postseason in a given year don’t make it back the next year.

2009 was no exception.

In the AFC, the bottom three seeds from 2008 — the Chargers, Colts, and Ravens — are back.  The top three seeds — the Titans, Steelers, and Dolphins — have been bounced.

In their places are the Patriots, Jets, and Bengals. 

In the NFC, which saw a whopping five playoff teams from 2007 not return a season ago, three teams have returned — the Vikings, Cardinals, and Eagles.  Gone are the Giants, Panthers, and Falcons, replaced by the Saints, Cowboys, and Packers.

Amazingly, all four teams that earned first-round byes a year ago failed to qualify for the postseason.

So keep that in mind come September 2010.  Half of the teams still alive now likely won’t play more than 16 games next season. 

But don’t get too crazy.  Otherwise, you might do something really dumb, like pick the Redskins to go to the Super Bowl.

11 responses to “Week 17 Morning Aftermath: 50 percent turnover rate persists

  1. Yeah, I can just hear the howls of east coast bias under those systems. Not a bad first thought though. How about this though, why not leave the seeding up to the fans, coaches, and players similar to how pro bowl players are picked. Well, seeds 1 through 4 anyway. That way those teams know they’ve got a home playoff game coming and can go ahead and presell the tickets like they probably need to. But beginning Sunday night at midnight and lasting until noon the next day, fans can submit their votes for who the seeds should be. They’d be one third of the vote. The players a third of the vote. And the coaches a third of the vote. Tally the votes and at 3pm eastern you announce the seedings. Wild card teams shouldn’t host a game regardless and you usually don’t have to worry about them throwing the last game as they tend to be fighting for that last spot on the last weekend. Sometimes not, but not enough to worry about.

  2. Yeah the NFC turnover from ’07 to ’08 was nuts. One of the six teams returned, including ZERO the division winners.
    A disclaimer should have been included with this post; you wouldn’t want to get the hopes of fans of Detroit, St. Louis, Buffalo, Tampa, KC, or Chicago to get their hopes up for no real reason.

  3. @ehatem
    Cause the teams that have the biggest fan bases will always have a step up in the seedings. Since the public has been able to vote in pro bowl players each year there are a few players that get there on “name” alone.
    Also a team that ended the season Hot, would be more than likely to get a higher seed because they will be fresh in peoples mind.

  4. I can see Buffalo and Detroit getting better, so lets not get too far ahead of ourselves. They could very well be playoff teams in a year or two.

  5. “Half the teams alive now won’t play more than 16 games next season.” That means The Eagles are OUT next year. The Cowboys exposed them like a case of Simplex 12.

  6. @ehatem…Not well thought out. Teams start to presell playoffs games before the seasson is over. Secondly, a wild card team can host a game…consider, what if the last two teams standing are wild card teams. OH..then we have another vote to see what nutral site will host the game.

  7. @ Ehatem
    Why not just let the fans vote on who should get the super bowl trophy and save everyone the risk of getting injured….
    Then you won’t have to play any games at all…

  8. Haha Florio, keep bringing that Redskins pick for superbowl up, it is still funny. I think it deserves a “c’mon man.”

  9. Hap, no way the Cowboys beat the Eagles three times in one season. No way. Enjoy the season sweep because it is going to be one more year since 96′ since the Boys’ won a playoff game.

  10. What bothers me about the Colts is that the one year they have to play the entire season like it meant something they won the Super Bowl. Of course it really helped the Jets get in since their last two games were against teams that had no incentive to win. Maybe the Jets will beat the Bengals and Colts in the playoffs (that’d be funny).

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