Whitner welshes on Super Bowl ticket giveaway

On January 23, Bills safety Donte Whitner asked us via Twitter to publicize his promise to give away two Super Bowl tickets once he reached 10,000 followers.  Since he seemed sincere in his promise (e.g., Giving away the 2 tixs….SUPERBOWL TIXS!!!!!! FREE!!! FREE!!! FREE!!!! FREE!!! FREE!!!!! Follow to win!“), we decided to help him out.

So, with our help, he climbed from 8,372 followers to 10,000.  Then, once he made it to 10,000, he announced the rules of the contest.

To win, the follower had to guess the scores of both conference title games.

As it turns out, no one did.  So now Whitner won’t be giving away the tickets.

He defended his decision with this tweet:  “There’s plently of people that were ‘close’ some almost dead on.  But I never said close I said guess the scores….it was fair!

No, Donte, it wasn’t fair.  You created a clear impression that someone would get the tickets once you accumulated 10,000 followers.  Then, once you accumulated 10,000 followers, you created unreasonably difficult rules for winning the two tickets that you had led everyone to believe you would give away.

So now he keeps the tickets, and he has 10,000 followers.  So the truly “fair” outcome would be for everyone who followed him in order to have a shot at winning the tickets to unfollow him, immediately.

And if other people who already were following him would choose to do the same, we’d be fine with that, too. 

We just did.

133 responses to “Whitner welshes on Super Bowl ticket giveaway

  1. I unfollowed his ass as soon as I decided to follow him and saw that he does not stop tweeting. It’s annoying. I don’t regret my decision

  2. FLORIO – “unreasonably difficult rules”… how is guess the scores correctly to win a difficult rule??
    Sometimes I feel like you just like to complain just to complain.
    Nobody got it right… nobody got tickets. Seems pretty fair to me!!

  3. I am from Buffalo and like to think of myself as the worlds biggest Bills fan. I try to defend everything the team and its players do…im the ultimate optimist. But this? My god what a tool.

  4. quit crying Florio.. he only had two tickets.. what if their were more than a couple people who were close? how does he decide who goes between them and how do you know he didnt give the tickets to some poor kid who wanted to be their anyway?? plus he made the rules pretty clear and seeing how NOONE guessed right why would you win for that anyway??

  5. He never tells the truth, remember when he told all of us that the bills were going to make the playoffs 2 years ago. Not only did he say that, he guaranteed it. Someone needs to taze him a little bit longer next time.

  6. just checked his page out of curiosity. he’s already under 10,000 — and he just tweeted a message to profootballtalk saying that’s going to give the tickets to somebody in buffalo.

  7. I knew this would happen. Right after you mentioned this, I decided to follow him because naturally I wanted to enter.
    Between the time you mentioned it and the time the contest actually “started”, he had probably changed the rules at least 10 times. It was ridiculous. First the contest started at the beginning of the Colts/Jets game and ended at the end of the 1st quarter (the logic in that rule, showed me from the get-go that we weren’t dealing with a bright lightbulb, and he was making this stuff up on the fly). Then it was from midnight until 2AM. Then he started picking certain entries as if he was only going to pick 10 random entries and only have those be eligible. And then stopped in the middle. It was absurd. Reminded me of a 10 year old. I don’t understand how some of these guys are allowed to use Twitter, you’d think some of their PR guys would stop and say “Hey, you know what? It’d probably be in your best interest to let me handle this.”
    Some of them handle it just fine, some of them do let their PR people do it, but there are quite a few out there who don’t only embarrass themselves, but embarrass the NFL. All professionalism thrown out the window. Somebody needs to step in. Soon.

  8. Do not get me wrong I love the NFL but the players come and they go, some you will remember more than others.
    But who in the right mind would want to follow a player on Twitter? I do not mean to knock the simple minds but what the ^&%$.
    What the superior man seeks is in himself, what the inferior man seeks is in others. It is one thing to love a sport as a whole, but most of these guys are jerks once you get to know one anyway.
    The clown in the article sounds like pure PUNK.

  9. As an avid Bills fan I can also say that he also fooled me into thinking he was a good football player. Cut him now dammit!

  10. I’m a huge Bills fan, but wow how pathetic.
    Guess the EXACT SCORES of BOTH title games?
    No wonder he wanted Michael Vick on our team.
    Takes a scumbag to know one.

  11. Ten years from now, when some player has gone to jail and/or been sued dry because of what they “tweeted”, people will wonder why idiots like Whitner ever bothered. You don’t let small children play with matches. They shouldn’t let moronic athletes play with Twitter. Goodell would be saving these dolts from themselves if he banned it all together. What say you WV lawyer boy? Possible class action lawsuit against Whitner?

  12. What a colossal DICK move. He should have made someone very happy and now it’s too late for anyone to realistically make travel plans, not to mention lodging without getting charged an arm and a leg.
    Donte, this karma’s for you.

  13. Haha, Awesome. I sent PFT an e-mail last night about this so I’m going to have to take partial credit on this one.
    Except you guys forgot to throw this quote from his Twitter in: “Come on people….2 FREE SUperbowl tixs!!!! Some lucky person is going to win them today! I promise…”
    Donte, I know two of your homeboys probably wanted to go really bad, but you got a lot of cash and a few in’s, I’m sure, couldn’t you have found an additional two tickets instead of giving these ones to them…?
    I’m through with following him, maybe I’ll go see what J.Byrd is up to…

  14. WOW if you guess the score you could win the tickets…NO ONE guessed the score SO NO ONE GETS THE TICKETS THAT MAKES SINCE TO ME. That is what is wrong with people today. There are no losers everybody wins.
    So if I have a lottery ticket for the power ball and could win 120 million but I am one number off will they just give me all the money?

  15. How could he do something like that – especially after his followers put together that great “Whitner’s tots” dance.

  16. With all the BS and scams in the world is it really necessary for Whitner to do this?
    Kudos to Florio for helping but like everyone else Florio got scammed. Th pathetic part is Whitner sees nothing wrong with what he did…..What a horses @ss!!!
    I can only hope karma justice comes back to Whitner 10X. Maybe then he will learn the hard way you don’t do this…..

  17. that’s a shocking story…shows the dark side of tweeting thats for sure
    seems like he gave the tickets to himself & had some fun….you cant expect him to tweet with 1628 people do you?
    seems easier to tell them all at once
    maybe you should write a big article & then remind everyone of this every time you mention him in the future
    that might even get the Goodall or Mike Freeman interested & who knows?Peter King might mention you in his column…
    tweet Mike Tice….

  18. Somehow I just can’t picture Charles Bronson getting into a pissing match with another grown man about how he cheated his way towards more “Twitter” followers and how people out there should unfollow his “tweets” so as to teach him a lesson.
    Florio, you are truly a dork.

  19. Was this really worth a column? No one won, so he’s not giving away the tickets, get over it.

  20. Needed 10,000 followers? Notice the Verizon logo in his background?
    Yeeeahhh…. I bet he gets a little more dough from Verizon for breaking the 10,000 follower barrier.

  21. Donte Whitner=Ed McMahon except that Whitner uses Twitter vs. Ed’s off yellow envelops

  22. According to Mr. Whitner, Yall Suck.
    Say’s he is going to give them away to a Buffalo fan in Miami, good luck with that. That’s like giving them away to a Rams fan in Ethopia.

  23. I don’t know. I sort of lean both ways. I think the idea that someone is perfectly going to guess the score of both games is unrealistic. But I don’t necessarily think he “tricked” people into the contest either. I find twitter to be almost impossible to follow, but I just scrolled through his page and he clearly says “details to follow” and then he gives the details, and apparently nobody won. That said, I think it’s wrong if he keeps the tickets for himself because no one guessed perfectly.
    He says in a tweet to PFT that he’s going to give the tickets to a Bills fan in Miami. If that’s true, I’m fine with that.
    Us Bills fans deserve a happy Super Bowl Sunday.

  24. This is the 2nd time he has screwed a fan over on promised tickets, the 1st, apparently was some months ago, when he asked his twitter followers to find his 2 cousins a job when they move to town and he would give them tickets to a game, long story short, the guy did get them both a job at a car dealership, Whitner got his mailing address and now will not give the tickets.

  25. What an asswipe.
    The NFL (hell, pro sports in general) has too many of these selfish losers nowadays. We need more Kurt Warners and a helluva lot less Whitners, T.O.’s, JaMarcuses, and the like.

  26. My guess is nobody won. You should be glad. The rules weren’t changed like they are on a per-game basis like the rest of the nfl. That being said, since I’m a buffalo fan and was pretty close, he should give them to me.

  27. I didnt play the contest, but all these quotes are from Whitners Twitter page about the contest:
    ‘Come on people….2 FREE SUperbowl tixs!!!! Some lucky person is going to win them today! I promise’
    ‘I’m going to give away 2 and auction off the other two and give the proceeds to the Haiti relief fund….leggo!’
    ‘**** all these people on twitter and no one wants free superbowl tixs? All I asked for was followers and I’ll deliver on the promise..IDLE’
    ‘Well since the followers are starting to roll in…I’m gonna give away 4 superbowl tickets I promise! And the winner gets a nite out on the’
    He has done things like this before. He offered to hook someone up if they found his cousin a job, they gave him a good lead and then got nothing.
    And he has listed this on twitter also, but no follow up:
    ‘Next week I’m going to be giving away Nike sweat suits and Nike sneakers…stay tuned! Then maybe tixs to the NBA all-star game n Dallas!’

  28. As an avid Ohio State fan I tend to keep track of former Buckeyes. I find it trashy that he would make rules after the fact. He should be ashamed of himself. Whitner obviously is not “good people”. It also seems where ever Donte goes trouble follows. He recently had some charges dropped in Cleveland for an altercation outside a nightclub. Ah I got it his Lawyer/wallet “WON” the tickets for keeping his overpaid *** out of jail!!!!

  29. Dude has to keep those tickets, its the only way he will get to a Super Bowl. The way anyone on the Bills can even get there is just by being in the league, who knows if they will ever get back.

  30. Donte Whitner is overrated as hell, just like Ohio State, and the Bills. Actually, the Bills are rated right where they should be.

  31. As if the Bills needed more bad karma.
    Guess he realized he plays for the Bills and tickets were the only way for him to get near a Super Bowl.

  32. I don’t know who is the bigger Jackass. Donte Whitner or the 10,000 jackasses who actually follow him or anyone on twitter….

  33. Florio you are completely wrong.
    The rules of the contest were announced before he reached 10000. I joined when he had 9300. I knew the full rules of his contest at that point.
    Don’t blame Whitner that nobody got the scores right. He was giving thousands of people a free shot at the tickets, everyone just missed.

  34. No different than any other scam marketing offer in America. Since when is any offer what seems on the surface e.g. airline tickets, cell phone contracts, on and on and on.

  35. Well he is down to 9,900 now so let’s hope that trend continues. If you say you are going to give away two tickets when something happens you should do it.

  36. @Profootballtalk yall suck….my followers are here to stay…..chumps!
    about 6 hours ago from UberTwitter
    I Like How Whitner Says This With Less Then 10,000 Followers.

  37. I’m out!
    Here are his tweets, FYI:
    1/24/10 – 2:52 p.m. “9 mins til I stop the contest hurry….free superbowl tickets!”
    1/25/10 – 12:11 a.m. “Now I have to sort thru and see who won….stay tuned!”
    1/25/10 – 1:50 p.m. “I’m still checking to see who won….there’s a lot of entries….will have a winner tonite!!!”
    Sounds to me like whoever got the closest score, not the actual score, would be winning the tickets. And get we get somebody to put odds on likelihood of getting the two scores, let alone the teams attached to the scores, right?

  38. Way to make the Bills look even better Whitner. Im no longer a followerr.
    I hope this head case gets traded. Nothing but problems and a high price tag….dump him and let the senator and byrd shore up the SS and FS position

  39. If he had a lick of PR sense he would have blamed it on a lawyer reminding him that contests like this may not be legal in all the places his followers live.

  40. Sounds like ole Mikey didn’t get his tickets. What a stupid story. “No, Donte, it wasn’t fair”…. Hahaha. Lame.

  41. And if other people who already were following him would choose to do the same, we’d be fine with that, too.
    We just did.

    Donte, we are no longer best friends!

  42. So I guess… building an audience is a bad thing? How is it really different from half of the other bogus ass contest out their that are difficult to win?
    Ohhhh… forgot I was dealing with the NFL version of TMZ. Sorry.

  43. Has it really come to this? Revenge via Twitter. I would agree with you; Whitner screwed up.
    However, this post seems a tad childish. You unfollowed him on Twitter?!!? Noooooo!!!!! How could you? Now you won’t be one of the first people to know what he ate for lunch or what movie he went to last night. Tragedy.

  44. Reminds me when i was in high school.Had a girl at my house in my bed ,shirt off,bra off,pants off, and hand in her panties, then says no!

  45. What else can you expect from a bills player. I would unfollow him but luckily there is no way I would have followed him in the first place.

  46. why is there such a big void in people’s lives that they need to have X amount of followers on twitter. and who follows people on twitter? do you really need to know what donte whitner is doing at any given moment?

  47. another buffalo first round bust,get rid of him like lynch. george wilson is better any way

  48. It’s a relief to know that most sport fans realize this guy is a product of Ohio State, and it’s not the Buffalo Bill in him bringing this out. Donte peaked in Ohio, now send him packing, the Bills had a solid secondary without him.

  49. Tweeting is gay anyhow. Why would any self respecting man follow another man’s tweets? Do you watch gay’s anatomy on Thursdays as well?

  50. I can’t believe the Bills blew the #8 overall pick on this bum, when our biggest need was D-Tackle, and Ngata was still on the board.
    You stay classy, Donte Shitner.

  51. Can’t wait for his whining about how the team should pay him more… unfair contract etc…

  52. looked in first thing this morning to catch the unfolding drama…
    Donte Whitner…unfollowed…a broken man

  53. Who is donte whitner? Why would anyone follow him? His posts look like a feeble attempt by a little kid to spell big boy words. Sounds like a tool. I’m going to go back to having never heard of him again.

  54. Well I did not follow him, but my question is did his rules state “Guess the score” or “correctly guess the score.” Because if this douche bag didn’t word it correctly, then I think a whole bunch of people are eligible for tickets.

  55. “herse182 says:
    February 4, 2010 1:27 AM
    And this is why Twitter is worthless”
    You clearly don’t follow Jesus or Shitmydadsays. Aside from that, yes, it’s worthless. I don’t need to know when Miley Cyrus or Chad Johnson take a dump.
    “prd3806 says:
    February 4, 2010 2:42 AM
    Geez Florio. The term is “welches”. Hire a proofreader for god’s sake.”
    Learn the history of the English language. Where, exactly would “welch” on a bet derive from? The guy who makes grape juice? Is he a notorious cheat?
    It’s derogatory slang derived from WELSH people. Kind of like when someone says “Jewed me out” of something.

  56. so, now has he not only, through his play, established himself as a safety not worth a top ten pick, but also as a douche who refuses to live up to his end of the bargain. He needs to spend less time fighting in clubs and twittering, and more time in the film room. BUST

  57. Assignment to PFT:
    Please find a picture of this guy at the game.
    Ill follow PFT for life if you can find it!

  58. Ok Superbowl tickets cost a few thousand dollars it was a contest just like the Lottery if you dont guess the correct numbers you dont win a prize its not his fault no one guessed the right numbers…You guys act like you lost money on this stop being so f’ing greedy and say hey thanks for the contest im a sore loser…He didnt have to offer anything so be grateful for a chance to win free tickets to the super bowl the biggest sport in the nation so stop your bitching and complaining

  59. Waaaah. If I entered and guessed wrong (even if I was a point or 2 off), I wouldn’t be complaining that I didn’t win. If I had the scores dead-on and didn’t get at least some compensation (in case of a tie) then I’d be pissed.

  60. Main Entry: welsh
    Pronunciation: \ˈwelsh, ˈwelch\
    Variant(s): also welch \ˈwelch\
    Function: intransitive verb
    Etymology: probably from Welsh, adjective
    Date: 1905
    1 sometimes offensive : to avoid payment —used with on
    2 sometimes offensive : to break one’s word : renege
    — welsh·er noun, sometimes offensive

  61. Just like a Bills player. Every year – WE’LL BE IN THE PLAYOFFS !! WE’LL BE IN THE PLAYOFFS !!! WE’LL BE IN THE PLAYOFFS !!!
    And what happens every year… no playoffs.

  62. Could this situation constitute gambling? Seems to me that Whitner was betting on two games here. Not only that but he was acting as oddsmaker. Essentially he runs his own racket.

  63. Wait, did I miss something? He didn’t lie. He laid out what you have to do and nobody did it. Why are people crying over it?

  64. I was surfing the web and a banner-ad popped up and said if I threw a banana at the dancing monkey I would win an X-Box360. I hit the monkey, signed up for a free 8-day trial of a credit monitoring service and still have never seen that damn X-Box360. Is this really any different?
    Honestly, as a season ticket holding Bills fan, the only way (in my opinion) to redeem what he has done is to uphold his beleif that nobody won the contest and sell the tickets to benefit Haiti or some other charity.

  65. You advertised it for him, so since he didn’t give them away and you feel he screwed people, then you give them away. Seems fair to me, saves you from False Advertising, Law Dog! lol
    Whitner is a bum!

  66. did donte steal your ex-gf from you or something?
    u have a deep-seeded vandetta against him dont you
    a classy dude he is not, worthy of a top ten pick he was not & one-of-the-most-newsworthy-players-in-sports ((like u pretend)) he also is not…..
    …to sum up: “dig a ditch, flood the valley, build a bridge and get over him”
    sorry about ur man-crush on him flaming out but read the fine print before u advertise for him

  67. @ Florio:
    The odds of doing so are, roughly, 2,560,000:1
    Divide that by the, roughly, 10,000 entries and you have a probability of 256:1 that someone will guess the correct answer.
    However, there are numbers that are more likely to happen than other numbers. For example, the last digit of each teams’ score is twice as likely to be (0) or (7) than (2) (4) or (6). And the first digit of each teams’ score is twice as likely to be a (1) or (2) as a (4).
    So, factoring in all of this, you have a much better than 200:1 chance of winning something worth a few thousand dollars for no consideration (you’re not putting something up to wager)
    As a reference, you would have a better chance doing this than making a shot from half court.
    Now, assuming that it was stated that you had to “correctly guess the exact score for all four teams in the conference championship games,” you have no beef and are just whining.
    Life ain’t fair and fair ain’t equal, my boy……now, go practice that half court shot and tell me how many you make out of 500…….

  68. I suppose I could see someone joining to win the tickets but who were all the losers that had signed up before the contest?

  69. @ Notorious VIC: hillarious! Bronson, tweeting or twittering or whatever the hell it’s called = priceless. For that matter, what do you think Ditka, Butkus, or Tommy Nobis thinks about these guys doing that?!?
    “Chuck Norris doesn’t tweet, he just kicks your ass…”

  70. Anybody that defends somebody that makes up rules AFTER the game starts are probably moronic idiots with no scruples as well.
    I don’t tweet but I considered following Whitner for the chance to get tickets.
    I love the NFL but the one thing the NFL doesn’t need is twitter, a chance to listen and explore what goes on in NFL players’ minds… which means it is a bad thing because for far too many, there is nothing going on upstairs.
    Most of these guys didn’t have the intelligence or intellectual ability to finish high school let alone, get into college if it were not for football. Whitner is just another further example that these guys are gifted athletes but if it weren’t for athletics they would have nothing to offer society.

  71. donte whitner is a total JOKE. he is the definition of a BUST. dollars to donuts sez he isnt even a starter next year. loser- low-life trash.

  72. I don’t use twitter so here’s a question I have: Why the hell does anyone care if you achieve 10k followers on your tweets? Seriously? What was his objective there that could have netted him anything of greater value than what scalping 2 SB tix could have gotten him? I’d like to know.
    Donte, as a Bucks fan, shape up boy! Get yer head outta yer ass and just play ball!

  73. I calculate the odds at more like 3,579,664 to one.
    If you set a limit on the high score for each team at, say……45 points that gives you 2025 possibilities. Then you deduct for the fact that neither team can finish with a score of 1 point, and you deduct further for the fact that the game can’t end in a tie. That leaves you with 1892 possible scores for ONE game. Square that, and it gives you 3,579,664 possible scores for the two games.
    Disclaimer: This is probably not very accurate, because I’m actually not very good at mathematics.

  74. “Opie says:
    February 4, 2010 10:40 AM
    @ Florio:
    The odds of doing so are, roughly, 2,560,000:1
    Divide that by the, roughly, 10,000 entries and you have a probability of 256:1 that someone will guess the correct answer.”
    That is absolutely positively not correct. Nor is it even close.

  75. @opie, you clearly have the knowledge of the numbers. humor me, and let me know what the chances would have been had only one entrant been allowed to pick a certain score, thus making every entrant have a different set of outcomes.
    this seems like it would have produced a winner, although a lot more work than whitner would have probably ever done, even in college.

  76. Opie – I’m not sure if the chances of guessing correctly is 2,560,000:1
    Even that seems too “good” as we’re talking about having someone correctly guess and pair the correct four single or double digit numbers.
    But even if it is 2.5 million to one you can’t just divide that by 10,000 and say it’s 256-1. That would assume that each and every person entered had chosen a different number and pairing.
    And while there’s no doubt that scoring by 7s and 3s is more likely than scoring by 4s and 5s, the permutations are so numerous once you factor in multiple random scores that nearly any number is possible.
    So tack on a few more zeros to that 256.
    The real chance is low enough that even I would be comfortable offering such a deal.

  77. @Opie:
    Don’t your statistics assume that all 10,000 followers actually predict game scores? How many did?
    Didn’t you also assume that all 10,000 followers would collude to ensure 10,000 actual score predictions would be guessed? Instead of 200 predictions replicated many times..
    And for the record, if I get 200 half-court shots I’m probably making a few of them. Where’d you get the probability for half-court shorts?

  78. Okay:
    @ Nuckinfutz: yes, your math is similar. 43 possible points, I used 40. However, when you square it, it obviously makes a “bit” of a difference.
    @ slutnuts: I did it in simple form “assuming for the sake of argument” that each entry picked a different combination.
    @ JoeSixPack: Actually, you have to take out some of the number combinations. So, the permutations aren’t that large.
    @ Adam-Chris Scheftersen: Yes, you’re correct. I did it in simple form. As for the half court shot, not knowing you, you probably are better than the “average citizen.” I would be much more likely to hit a half court shot than these odds, as well.
    To break it down: I simply did easy math that assumed that:
    a) all 10,000 entered
    b) they all picked different numbers
    c) and (although I didn’t clarify it well enough) that the probability that “someone” would get it right was “roughly” 256:1. Each person’s individual odds were 2,560,000:1.
    Probability is different from an individual’s chances to win.
    To break it down a little more complex for Super Bowl:
    Over/Under is 56.5
    Spread is 4.5
    Each team then is 28.25 points (half the spread) for the game w/variance of 4.5 either way.
    What that means is neither team will score 50, 60, 70, 80, or 90 points, for the sake of this illustration. Over the past 25 years only once has a team scored less than 10 points, so I will throw that out.
    What you’re left with is 10, 20, 30, or to a lesser degree 40 points could be scored by either team. The 2nd digit of the score could be anything from 0-9 for both teams. So, you would “generally” have a 1 in 30 (maybe 40) chance of picking each teams final score. To get both teams exactly correct, would be a 900:1 chance………roughly.
    Again, this is generally and not absolute, but it would take a lot longer and be even more boring to break it down here to get it exactly correct.
    Now, TFBuckFutter, if you think this is absolutely, positively incorrect……do enlighten us all with your wizardry.

  79. “# Opie says: February 4, 2010 6:01 PM
    Now, TFBuckFutter, if you think this is absolutely, positively incorrect……do enlighten us all with your wizardry.”
    I did, but the post was posted and then mysteriously removed.
    And it’s actually a quite simple permutation. Figuring a possible but unlikely combined score of 70, and ANY combination but the 1 is possible (we’re ignoring likelihoods here), there are 4900 possible combinations FOR EACH GAME.
    That means the chances of picking a combination of 2 numbers 1-70 correctly for BOTH games is 4900 squared, or 24,0100,000. (There’s a little play because 1 and ties aren’t possible, but it’s such a minor thing it doesn’t really chance the outcome in a noticeable way.)
    If you take the ACTUAL scores of the game 59 and 47, you get 4381 x 2209. So assuming you set the cap for possibilities at the actual number scored, you STILL have odds of 1:9,677,629
    Now divide that by 10,000 (and also assume those are 10,000 completely different guesses) and you have odds of 1:2400 or 1:968 that ANYONE will pick right.
    Or conversely, 2399:2400 and 967:968 chances that nobody wins a damn thing.
    It’s cute that you used 40…..of course, that’s unlikely to be a COMBINED SCORE for the game. That is where your math is faulty. You’re taking 40 points, and suggesting 4 participants. It’s not 4 teams playing in ONE game. It is two separate equations that have to be figured separately.
    Of course, if you think 40 is a cap per team, then take 160 and with an r-value of FOUR and see what you get.
    Your numbers are absolutely, positively incorrect.

  80. You recognize it’s a permutation because 35-30 is different than 30-35 in the equation, right?

  81. Oopsie doodle…..I see the mistake in my math.
    However, it you figure a permutation of 2 numbers 1-35 (not 1-70) you still have odds of 1225.
    Haven’t done stats in a LONG time.

  82. @ TFBuckFutter:
    “It’s cute that you used 40…..of course, that’s unlikely to be a COMBINED SCORE for the game. That is where your math is faulty.”
    Um, nope. Not faulty and not the “combined” score.
    “It is two separate equations that have to be figured separately.” —— yup, I’m on that.
    “Of course, if you think 40 is a cap per team, then take 160 and with an r-value of FOUR and see what you get.” ——– 2,560,000:1 on it, but thanks.
    “Your numbers are absolutely, positively incorrect.” ———– really? cause, I could have sworn……wait a tick, what’s this (see next quote below)?!?
    “Oopsie doodle…..I see the mistake in my math. However, if you figure a permutation of 2 numbers 1-35 (not 1-70) you still have odds of 1225. Haven’t done stats in a LONG time.”
    I see. First, I didn’t use 1-35. Second, only once in 25 years has a team scored under 10 points (mentioned above). So, odds for Super Bowl are 900:1, approximately. Nice try at the “kick save” like that, but why not just cop to it and say, “my bad dawg. Opie, you were right on this one.” ?????
    No worries, you now understand that I was not, in fact,
    “absolutely and positively incorrect”
    —- if I had a microphone and a stage, I’d throw the damn thing down and walk off the stage………

  83. “Opie says:
    February 4, 2010 9:38 PM
    No worries, you now understand that I was not, in fact,
    “absolutely and positively incorrect””
    Your numbers are still faulty (and your process is needlessly complex) but yes, I was far more off after briefly refreshing my memory on permutations.
    “So, factoring in all of this, you have a much better than 200:1 chance of winning something worth a few thousand dollars for no consideration (you’re not putting something up to wager)”
    Is still wildly inaccurate. There is a 1 in 256 (roughly) chance SOMEONE will win. But again, a 255:256 chance that NO one does. And that is also assuming that all 10,000 people enter AND produce 10,000 unique guesses.
    And YOUR odds are still 1:2,500,000

  84. Opie-
    First of all I have no idea why you are assuming scores under 10 dont exist. In the conference championship games there are plenty of examples of scores under 10. Heck, I can think of 2 just using the Buffalo Bills. There are probably more then a dozen more.
    Second, even if we assume your bad data is correct and the chance for ANYONE AT ALL to win the contest was 1 in 250, those are still ridiculous odds. Can you name any reputable lottery like that? Arent there lotteries in the US where if there isnt a winner the money is rolled over to the next week? When was the last time one of those went for 250 weeks (5 years) without a single winner.
    As Florio said, making a contest where there is a 99.6% chance that you never have to give a prize is ridiculous.
    Finally, there were plenty of ‘tweets’ where Whitner stated or implied there were would be a winner regardless.
    But where this story is going to get really fun is when some reporter notices that he promised to auction 2 tickets off and give the money to Haiti, then asks Whitner whether or not he did that. Because given his actions in the past, Im going to go ahead and guess he didnt.

  85. Okay, reading comprehension is apparently not a common thread running threw my fellow posters.
    TFBuckFutter says:
    “And YOUR odds are still 1:2,500,000” “There is a 1 in 256 (roughly) chance SOMEONE will win. But again, a 255:256 chance that NO one does. And that is also assuming that all 10,000 people enter AND produce 10,000 unique guesses.”
    ——– That’s EXACTLY what I was saying originally. That probability and individual chance were different. That it is “roughly” and not exact & based on very “simple” math.
    Re-read the post.
    “and your process is needlessly complex”
    ————- Actually, my process isn’t complex at all. It is really simple, but does take into account that (a) teams aren’t going to score over 50 points and (b) they aren’t going to score less than 10 points.
    @ Thronsen:
    First, the illustration was based on the Super Bowl & not the conference championship games. The odds for the championship games did include scoring less than 10 points.
    “Second, even if we assume your bad data is correct and the chance for ANYONE AT ALL to win the contest was 1 in 250, those are still ridiculous odds. Can you name any reputable lottery like that? ——————-
    My point was that at 250:1, the PROBABILITY that someone could win was greater than what was being interpreted. Your individual odds remain the same, unless you play more than once. And since I used data that included scoring less than 10 points, I assume that now we can agree that my data isn’t bad.
    As to your second point re: a lottery like that…….I’ll ask, are you saying that the lotteries have odds better than 2,500,000:1?
    @ Thronsen: “As Florio said, making a contest where there is a 99.6% chance that you never have to give a prize is ridiculous.”
    —————– Here’s the rub: how many people play the lottery with worse odds & “you have to PAY to play.”
    So, which is more ridiculous?
    Look, I stated that the “probability” is based on simple math and assuming that all entries were received and of different combinations. It was for illustration purposes. I even mention it and allude to the fact that to get at true odds, it would be much more complex.
    The point was to show that I was, in fact, using proper mathematics and to illustrate what the rough odds were that it could happen. Nothing more.
    Whitner is still a dumbass….

  86. First of all, why are you using the assumption that Superbowls score generally score over 10 points? The contest was for predicting the score of Conference Championship games, nothing to do with the Superbowl other then the prize. And Conference Championship games do have scores under 10 points, so your eliminating of all those scores in your ‘analysis’ is pretty suspect.
    And sorry I just plain disagree with you that a contest where the chance of ANYONE AT ALL winning ANYTHING is just 1 in 250 (if we take your numbers which have already been shown to be faulty). Thats just ridiculous.
    Can you name any reasonably legitimate contest like that, where 99+% of the time they dont give away ANY prizes?
    Whitner clearly never meant to give away these tickets. He wanted to get a bunch of followers on twitter, without having to give away anything.
    Florio, make sure you ask him on Monday how his auction of tickets for Haiti relief donations went. Its one thing to cheat 10,000 people in a stupid twitter contest, quite another to cheat a charity.

  87. @ Thronsen:
    You’re either have not read all of my posts completely, haven’t read them at all, or you’re not reading for comprehension.
    You are confusing two seperate issues involving different posts.
    a) re: Super Bowl: As I stated, in the last 25 years, only once has a team scored less than 10 points. I was using the last 25 years, as an example, to show how the odds for a contest would be calculated.
    b) re: Conf. Championships: As I stated directly to you, I included those in the analysis. So, in summary, I did not eliminate them and therefore my numbers are not “suspect” at all.
    c) 250:1 is the probability not an individual’s personal chance. The odds that your entry would be correct are approximately 2,560,000:1
    d) Legitimate other contests where odds are worse than 250:1 –
    You’ve got to pick 6 correct numbers out of 80, your odds are approximately: 300,464,091:1
    The difference for a Lottery is that, depending on how many people play it, the PROBABILITY that someone will win increases. NOT your individual chance of winning. This is what we were, originally, discussing. Probability that someone could win Whitner’s alleged contest.
    If you play golf, your chances of hitting a hole in one another example. Pretty much any scratch card you buy from your local state lottery.
    For a non-contest, your life insurance policy or your car insurance. You pay the premium, but your chances of dying during each individual day/occurrence is a lot less likely than 250:1.
    Whether you agree or not, is not really of a whole lot of concern. I am correct.
    I do, however, agree with you on the last two paragraphs of your post.

  88. Opie-
    I have read your posts the first time, perhaps you could show the same courtesy. Because for all your blather, you keep dodging my points.
    First, it makes no sense for you to pretend that its not possible to score less then 10 points. Its not some rarity in Conference Championship games, heck the Bills by themselves have kept opponents to less then 10 twice in 4 of their games.
    I get that you keep on talking about Superbowl scores, but thats just asinine. The contest was for the Conference Championship, not the Superbowl, so use the data for that, or even all football games. Dont be so transparent as to try to skew your results with ridiculous assumptions. Frankly you sound like Whitners agent.
    And Florios basic point remains correct. It is absurd to run a contest where the chance of Whitner having to pay out is less then .5% (according to you), and probably way less then .1% if less dubious assumptions are used.
    Can you name a single contest where they payout less then once in a THOUSAND times the contest is run? Ive posed this question before, and you keep avoiding it. You cite a lottery where the chance of ONE person winning is 1 in X million, but that is not relevant unless you can name one that didnt payout TO ANYONE after they ran it 1000 times.
    Probably because they dont exist.
    As Florio stated, Whitner ran a contest that after promising Free Tickets, made the contest so hard that it was extremely unlikely (probably close to as low as 1 in 10,000) that anyone would ever win it.
    And thats ridiculous.
    Just waiting now to hear about the Haiti auction, that should be funny.

  89. @ Thronsen:
    Seriously? You’ve read what I wrote & you actually understood it?
    Re-read (b) and (c) from my posting above.
    a) I INCLUDED the possibility of scoring less than 10 points. Got it? INCLUDED IT for conference championships.
    b) Super Bowl was an example re: another conversation on how to calculate odds. We simplified it to one game and it was the Super Bowl because, well, they’re playing that tomorrow.
    As for lotteries, let’s try this:
    Each entry is essentially an individual game. So, they can “run” the contest millions of times without a winner.
    You can re-read my post for other examples of contests and non-contests that can run 1,000+ times without a “winner,” so to speak.
    As for the Haiti auction: if this thread is any indication of interest, he better do the right thing…………oh, and I’m not his agent. Too smart for that….ha!

  90. @ Thronsen:
    Vegas was eerily close. Colts were there and a TD @ the end would have put it within the parameters of what we had been talking about.
    28 points w/variation of 4.5 for line. Alas, that’s what you can’t perfectly size it up. Still, odds better than a lottery and tonight proved it can be made easier w/out a bunch of research…..

  91. Really? Nobody was smart enough to google the answer??? I’m sorry but that’s not Whitners fault, that’s the stupid lazy fans problem for not using their little pea sized brains. You guys have time to come on here and cry about it, why don’t you look at what your government is doing to you instead of worry about Whitner giving away superbowl tickets. what i bunch of cry babies you are. And Florio, you have nothing better to write about and nothing better to to with you time then try and piss Whitner off?? Grow up dude.

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