Vegas was eerily close. Colts were there and a TD @ the end would have put it within the parameters of what we had been talking about.

28 points w/variation of 4.5 for line. Alas, that’s what you can’t perfectly size it up. Still, odds better than a lottery and tonight proved it can be made easier w/out a bunch of research….. ]]>

Seriously? You’ve read what I wrote & you actually understood it?

Re-read (b) and (c) from my posting above.

a) I INCLUDED the possibility of scoring less than 10 points. Got it? INCLUDED IT for conference championships.

b) Super Bowl was an example re: another conversation on how to calculate odds. We simplified it to one game and it was the Super Bowl because, well, they’re playing that tomorrow.

As for lotteries, let’s try this:

Each entry is essentially an individual game. So, they can “run” the contest millions of times without a winner.

You can re-read my post for other examples of contests and non-contests that can run 1,000+ times without a “winner,” so to speak.

As for the Haiti auction: if this thread is any indication of interest, he better do the right thing…………oh, and I’m not his agent. Too smart for that….ha! ]]>

I have read your posts the first time, perhaps you could show the same courtesy. Because for all your blather, you keep dodging my points.

First, it makes no sense for you to pretend that its not possible to score less then 10 points. Its not some rarity in Conference Championship games, heck the Bills by themselves have kept opponents to less then 10 twice in 4 of their games.

I get that you keep on talking about Superbowl scores, but thats just asinine. The contest was for the Conference Championship, not the Superbowl, so use the data for that, or even all football games. Dont be so transparent as to try to skew your results with ridiculous assumptions. Frankly you sound like Whitners agent.

And Florios basic point remains correct. It is absurd to run a contest where the chance of Whitner having to pay out is less then .5% (according to you), and probably way less then .1% if less dubious assumptions are used.

Can you name a single contest where they payout less then once in a THOUSAND times the contest is run? Ive posed this question before, and you keep avoiding it. You cite a lottery where the chance of ONE person winning is 1 in X million, but that is not relevant unless you can name one that didnt payout TO ANYONE after they ran it 1000 times.

Probably because they dont exist.

As Florio stated, Whitner ran a contest that after promising Free Tickets, made the contest so hard that it was extremely unlikely (probably close to as low as 1 in 10,000) that anyone would ever win it.

And thats ridiculous.

Just waiting now to hear about the Haiti auction, that should be funny. ]]>

You’re either have not read all of my posts completely, haven’t read them at all, or you’re not reading for comprehension.

You are confusing two seperate issues involving different posts.

a) re: Super Bowl: As I stated, in the last 25 years, only once has a team scored less than 10 points. I was using the last 25 years, as an example, to show how the odds for a contest would be calculated.

b) re: Conf. Championships: As I stated directly to you, I included those in the analysis. So, in summary, I did not eliminate them and therefore my numbers are not “suspect” at all.

c) 250:1 is the probability not an individual’s personal chance. The odds that your entry would be correct are approximately 2,560,000:1

d) Legitimate other contests where odds are worse than 250:1 –

Lotteries.

You’ve got to pick 6 correct numbers out of 80, your odds are approximately: 300,464,091:1

The difference for a Lottery is that, depending on how many people play it, the PROBABILITY that someone will win increases. NOT your individual chance of winning. This is what we were, originally, discussing. Probability that someone could win Whitner’s alleged contest.

If you play golf, your chances of hitting a hole in one another example. Pretty much any scratch card you buy from your local state lottery.

For a non-contest, your life insurance policy or your car insurance. You pay the premium, but your chances of dying during each individual day/occurrence is a lot less likely than 250:1.

Whether you agree or not, is not really of a whole lot of concern. I am correct.

I do, however, agree with you on the last two paragraphs of your post. ]]>

And sorry I just plain disagree with you that a contest where the chance of ANYONE AT ALL winning ANYTHING is just 1 in 250 (if we take your numbers which have already been shown to be faulty). Thats just ridiculous.

Can you name any reasonably legitimate contest like that, where 99+% of the time they dont give away ANY prizes?

Whitner clearly never meant to give away these tickets. He wanted to get a bunch of followers on twitter, without having to give away anything.

Florio, make sure you ask him on Monday how his auction of tickets for Haiti relief donations went. Its one thing to cheat 10,000 people in a stupid twitter contest, quite another to cheat a charity. ]]>

TFBuckFutter says:

“And YOUR odds are still 1:2,500,000” “There is a 1 in 256 (roughly) chance SOMEONE will win. But again, a 255:256 chance that NO one does. And that is also assuming that all 10,000 people enter AND produce 10,000 unique guesses.”

——– That’s EXACTLY what I was saying originally. That probability and individual chance were different. That it is “roughly” and not exact & based on very “simple” math.

Re-read the post.

“and your process is needlessly complex”

————- Actually, my process isn’t complex at all. It is really simple, but does take into account that (a) teams aren’t going to score over 50 points and (b) they aren’t going to score less than 10 points.

@ Thronsen:

First, the illustration was based on the Super Bowl & not the conference championship games. The odds for the championship games did include scoring less than 10 points.

“Second, even if we assume your bad data is correct and the chance for ANYONE AT ALL to win the contest was 1 in 250, those are still ridiculous odds. Can you name any reputable lottery like that? ——————-

My point was that at 250:1, the PROBABILITY that someone could win was greater than what was being interpreted. Your individual odds remain the same, unless you play more than once. And since I used data that included scoring less than 10 points, I assume that now we can agree that my data isn’t bad.

As to your second point re: a lottery like that…….I’ll ask, are you saying that the lotteries have odds better than 2,500,000:1?

@ Thronsen: “As Florio said, making a contest where there is a 99.6% chance that you never have to give a prize is ridiculous.”

—————– Here’s the rub: how many people play the lottery with worse odds & “you have to PAY to play.”

So, which is more ridiculous?

Look, I stated that the “probability” is based on simple math and assuming that all entries were received and of different combinations. It was for illustration purposes. I even mention it and allude to the fact that to get at true odds, it would be much more complex.

The point was to show that I was, in fact, using proper mathematics and to illustrate what the rough odds were that it could happen. Nothing more.

Whitner is still a dumbass…. ]]>

First of all I have no idea why you are assuming scores under 10 dont exist. In the conference championship games there are plenty of examples of scores under 10. Heck, I can think of 2 just using the Buffalo Bills. There are probably more then a dozen more.

Second, even if we assume your bad data is correct and the chance for ANYONE AT ALL to win the contest was 1 in 250, those are still ridiculous odds. Can you name any reputable lottery like that? Arent there lotteries in the US where if there isnt a winner the money is rolled over to the next week? When was the last time one of those went for 250 weeks (5 years) without a single winner.

As Florio said, making a contest where there is a 99.6% chance that you never have to give a prize is ridiculous.

Finally, there were plenty of ‘tweets’ where Whitner stated or implied there were would be a winner regardless.

But where this story is going to get really fun is when some reporter notices that he promised to auction 2 tickets off and give the money to Haiti, then asks Whitner whether or not he did that. Because given his actions in the past, Im going to go ahead and guess he didnt. ]]>

February 4, 2010 9:38 PM

No worries, you now understand that I was not, in fact,

“absolutely and positively incorrect””

Your numbers are still faulty (and your process is needlessly complex) but yes, I was far more off after briefly refreshing my memory on permutations.

However…

“So, factoring in all of this, you have a much better than 200:1 chance of winning something worth a few thousand dollars for no consideration (you’re not putting something up to wager)”

Is still wildly inaccurate. There is a 1 in 256 (roughly) chance SOMEONE will win. But again, a 255:256 chance that NO one does. And that is also assuming that all 10,000 people enter AND produce 10,000 unique guesses.

And YOUR odds are still 1:2,500,000 ]]>

“It’s cute that you used 40…..of course, that’s unlikely to be a COMBINED SCORE for the game. That is where your math is faulty.”

Um, nope. Not faulty and not the “combined” score.

_________________________________

“It is two separate equations that have to be figured separately.” —— yup, I’m on that.

_________________________________

“Of course, if you think 40 is a cap per team, then take 160 and with an r-value of FOUR and see what you get.” ——– 2,560,000:1 on it, but thanks.

________________________________

“Your numbers are absolutely, positively incorrect.” ———– really? cause, I could have sworn……wait a tick, what’s this (see next quote below)?!?

________________________________

“Oopsie doodle…..I see the mistake in my math. However, if you figure a permutation of 2 numbers 1-35 (not 1-70) you still have odds of 1225. Haven’t done stats in a LONG time.”

I see. First, I didn’t use 1-35. Second, only once in 25 years has a team scored under 10 points (mentioned above). So, odds for Super Bowl are 900:1, approximately. Nice try at the “kick save” like that, but why not just cop to it and say, “my bad dawg. Opie, you were right on this one.” ?????

No worries, you now understand that I was not, in fact,

“absolutely and positively incorrect”

—- if I had a microphone and a stage, I’d throw the damn thing down and walk off the stage……… ]]>

However, it you figure a permutation of 2 numbers 1-35 (not 1-70) you still have odds of 1225.

Haven’t done stats in a LONG time. ]]>

Now, TFBuckFutter, if you think this is absolutely, positively incorrect……do enlighten us all with your wizardry.”

I did, but the post was posted and then mysteriously removed.

And it’s actually a quite simple permutation. Figuring a possible but unlikely combined score of 70, and ANY combination but the 1 is possible (we’re ignoring likelihoods here), there are 4900 possible combinations FOR EACH GAME.

That means the chances of picking a combination of 2 numbers 1-70 correctly for BOTH games is 4900 squared, or 24,0100,000. (There’s a little play because 1 and ties aren’t possible, but it’s such a minor thing it doesn’t really chance the outcome in a noticeable way.)

If you take the ACTUAL scores of the game 59 and 47, you get 4381 x 2209. So assuming you set the cap for possibilities at the actual number scored, you STILL have odds of 1:9,677,629

Now divide that by 10,000 (and also assume those are 10,000 completely different guesses) and you have odds of 1:2400 or 1:968 that ANYONE will pick right.

Or conversely, 2399:2400 and 967:968 chances that nobody wins a damn thing.

It’s cute that you used 40…..of course, that’s unlikely to be a COMBINED SCORE for the game. That is where your math is faulty. You’re taking 40 points, and suggesting 4 participants. It’s not 4 teams playing in ONE game. It is two separate equations that have to be figured separately.

Of course, if you think 40 is a cap per team, then take 160 and with an r-value of FOUR and see what you get.

Your numbers are absolutely, positively incorrect. ]]>

@ Nuckinfutz: yes, your math is similar. 43 possible points, I used 40. However, when you square it, it obviously makes a “bit” of a difference.

@ slutnuts: I did it in simple form “assuming for the sake of argument” that each entry picked a different combination.

@ JoeSixPack: Actually, you have to take out some of the number combinations. So, the permutations aren’t that large.

@ Adam-Chris Scheftersen: Yes, you’re correct. I did it in simple form. As for the half court shot, not knowing you, you probably are better than the “average citizen.” I would be much more likely to hit a half court shot than these odds, as well.

To break it down: I simply did easy math that assumed that:

a) all 10,000 entered

b) they all picked different numbers

c) and (although I didn’t clarify it well enough) that the probability that “someone” would get it right was “roughly” 256:1. Each person’s individual odds were 2,560,000:1.

Probability is different from an individual’s chances to win.

To break it down a little more complex for Super Bowl:

Over/Under is 56.5

Spread is 4.5

Each team then is 28.25 points (half the spread) for the game w/variance of 4.5 either way.

What that means is neither team will score 50, 60, 70, 80, or 90 points, for the sake of this illustration. Over the past 25 years only once has a team scored less than 10 points, so I will throw that out.

What you’re left with is 10, 20, 30, or to a lesser degree 40 points could be scored by either team. The 2nd digit of the score could be anything from 0-9 for both teams. So, you would “generally” have a 1 in 30 (maybe 40) chance of picking each teams final score. To get both teams exactly correct, would be a 900:1 chance………roughly.

Again, this is generally and not absolute, but it would take a lot longer and be even more boring to break it down here to get it exactly correct.

Now, TFBuckFutter, if you think this is absolutely, positively incorrect……do enlighten us all with your wizardry. ]]>

Don’t your statistics assume that all 10,000 followers actually predict game scores? How many did?

Didn’t you also assume that all 10,000 followers would collude to ensure 10,000 actual score predictions would be guessed? Instead of 200 predictions replicated many times..

And for the record, if I get 200 half-court shots I’m probably making a few of them. Where’d you get the probability for half-court shorts? ]]>

Even that seems too “good” as we’re talking about having someone correctly guess and pair the correct four single or double digit numbers.

But even if it is 2.5 million to one you can’t just divide that by 10,000 and say it’s 256-1. That would assume that each and every person entered had chosen a different number and pairing.

And while there’s no doubt that scoring by 7s and 3s is more likely than scoring by 4s and 5s, the permutations are so numerous once you factor in multiple random scores that nearly any number is possible.

So tack on a few more zeros to that 256.

The real chance is low enough that even I would be comfortable offering such a deal. ]]>

this seems like it would have produced a winner, although a lot more work than whitner would have probably ever done, even in college. ]]>

February 4, 2010 10:40 AM

@ Florio:

The odds of doing so are, roughly, 2,560,000:1

Divide that by the, roughly, 10,000 entries and you have a probability of 256:1 that someone will guess the correct answer.”

That is absolutely positively not correct. Nor is it even close. ]]>

If you set a limit on the high score for each team at, say……45 points that gives you 2025 possibilities. Then you deduct for the fact that neither team can finish with a score of 1 point, and you deduct further for the fact that the game can’t end in a tie. That leaves you with 1892 possible scores for ONE game. Square that, and it gives you 3,579,664 possible scores for the two games.

Disclaimer: This is probably not very accurate, because I’m actually not very good at mathematics. ]]>

Donte, as a Bucks fan, shape up boy! Get yer head outta yer ass and just play ball! ]]>

I don’t tweet but I considered following Whitner for the chance to get tickets.

I love the NFL but the one thing the NFL doesn’t need is twitter, a chance to listen and explore what goes on in NFL players’ minds… which means it is a bad thing because for far too many, there is nothing going on upstairs.

Most of these guys didn’t have the intelligence or intellectual ability to finish high school let alone, get into college if it were not for football. Whitner is just another further example that these guys are gifted athletes but if it weren’t for athletics they would have nothing to offer society. ]]>

“Chuck Norris doesn’t tweet, he just kicks your ass…” ]]>

The odds of doing so are, roughly, 2,560,000:1

Divide that by the, roughly, 10,000 entries and you have a probability of 256:1 that someone will guess the correct answer.

However, there are numbers that are more likely to happen than other numbers. For example, the last digit of each teams’ score is twice as likely to be (0) or (7) than (2) (4) or (6). And the first digit of each teams’ score is twice as likely to be a (1) or (2) as a (4).

So, factoring in all of this, you have a much better than 200:1 chance of winning something worth a few thousand dollars for no consideration (you’re not putting something up to wager)

As a reference, you would have a better chance doing this than making a shot from half court.

Now, assuming that it was stated that you had to “correctly guess the exact score for all four teams in the conference championship games,” you have no beef and are just whining.

Life ain’t fair and fair ain’t equal, my boy……now, go practice that half court shot and tell me how many you make out of 500……. ]]>