A warning against labor negotiation predictions

It’s been a nice few days for fans that want to view the NFL’s labor negotiations through rose-colored lenses.

Agreeing to federal mediation and talking for two straight days is a positive step, but it doesn’t tell us much.  As PFT tracks the daily developments, I’m trying to remember that it’s bound to get ugly while watching how the CBA sausage gets made.  There’s no point getting overly emotional about the ups and downs.  They are inevitable.

As Liz Mullen of the Sports Business Journal pointed out Friday in her visit to PFT Live, no one knows what’s going to happen.   Including the people in the room.

That’s why predicting when an agreement will be reached is tricky business.

It’s like when we predict the Super Bowl champion at PFT.  We might be right every once in a while, but that doesn’t mean anyone really has a clue what is going to happen.

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8 responses to “A warning against labor negotiation predictions

  1. In other “news” a warning against smoking because its bad for you and the sun can cause skin cancer. Thanks for this enlightening piece of journalism.

  2. Here is my prediction and you can take it to the bank.
    The owners are going to get whatever they want in this CBA. No matter what it costs, or if they have to cancel the whole season.

  3. I firmly believe that the owners should resist the temptation of a player lockout on March 4, and instead declare a labor “impasse,” if warranted. In my opinion, that’s a stronger hand for them in this high-stakes poker game.

    Of course, if significant progress is being made, then the owners could simply extend the CBA deadline. While not probable, don’t discount the possibility of that happening—especially if it has the practical effect of “melting the ice” and breaking the logjam in negotiations.

  4. The players have nothing to lose and this is good PR.
    The owners want to stall so maybe Judge Doty does not rule against them this week. And its good PR.
    Nothing will happen. Possibly both sides hired woman to comfort them in separate rooms and they never got together at all.
    Do not expect anything.

  5. Another thing to think about was brought up by Tony Grossi of the Plain Dealer.

    “11. What about the rookie wage-scale?
    Most everyone agrees it’s ridiculous for unproven high draft picks to receive contracts now routinely calling for $25 million and up in guaranteed money. The owners say a rookie wage-scale would redirect more money to veteran players. Players aren’t sure about that. The union contends nobody’s held a gun to the heads of a team to give lavish guarantees. Player agents would suffer most from a wage-scale because they wouldn’t get their lucrative cut of high-end rookie contracts. ”

    Personally, I would be very worried that the owners would use the rookie wage-scale to save money overall and not share it with the veterans. (based on how they handled the uncapped year). This may become the big sticking point.


  6. jokendave says: Feb 19, 2011 8:19 PM

    Union is involved, Lockout is going to happen. It’s smoke and mirrors people, thats all.

    So if a lockout occurs you’re blaming the union?
    Haven’t you got it backwards?

    If the players walk and refuse to work, it’s called a
    “strike”, but if the owners lock the doors and refuse to allow the players to work, then it’s called a “lockout”.

    So…. and I’ll go slow… if a “lockout” occurs, it’s.. the.. owner’s.. fault.

    Understand now?

  7. No, What I am saying is when the unions are involved, nothing gets done on time because its more profitable if they don’t cooperate. Period. Pretending they are trying to help players is a joke, its just posturing. Players are not clients to the union, they are pawns.

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