PFT’s Week 11 picks

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As Rosenthal continues to pull away in this 17-week race (he added two more games to his lead), I’m possibly getting close to waving the white flag.

But I don’t plan to be a good loser.

So I’ll keep the hanky in my pocket for now, especially since we disagree on two games this week, giving me a chance to make back the ground I lost last Sunday.

Last week, Rosenthal was 11-5, and I was 9-7.

For the season, he’s 99-47.  I’m 88-58.  And, yes, he has an 11-game lead.

And I now officially hate him.

Jets at Broncos

Florio’s take:  The Jets have the ideal defense to shut down the T-bone offense.  Whether the Jets are able to get ready on a short week after a deflating loss to the Pats will go a long way toward determining whether the Jets will be able to execute what should be an effective game plan.  Doubting the Broncos seems to fuel them, but if a run-heavy offense were truly the key to success in the modern NFL someone would have done it successfully long before 2011.

Florio’s pick:  Jets 24, Broncos 10.

Rosenthal’s take: Tim Tebow gets the attention, but this Broncos season turned around when Elvis Dumervil started applying pass pressure along with Von Miller.  (Miller should make the Pro Bowl and win defensive rookie of the year.)  They probably won’t get a chance to pass rush much Thursday.  The Jets will happily run all game because Rex Ryan knows Denver’s offense is limited.

Rosenthal’s pick: Jets 20, Broncos 13.

Bengals at Ravens

Florio’s take:  If the Bengals were 3-6, they’d have a good chance to beat the Ravens, since the Ravens overlook the bad teams.  Since the Bengals are 6-3, the Ravens will be ready to roll into a tie with the Steelers atop the AFC North.

Florio’s pick:  Ravens 21, Bengals 16.

Rosenthal’s take: Andy Dalton impressed me more in the loss to Pittsburgh than most of his wins. He made a number of “NFL” throws and mostly made good decisions against the blitz. Dalton will have to be even better against the Ravens, because Cincinnati’s secondary is ready to spring a leak without Leon Hall.

Rosenthal’s pick: Ravens 27, Bengals 21.

Jaguars at Browns

Florio’s take:  For the second straight week, the Browns host a game and there’s a good chance no one beyond Cleveland and the hometown of the visiting team will notice.  This one has tie written all over it.  But since tie isn’t an option, I’ll give it to the Browns by a field goal in overtime.  Assuming the snapper can snap, the holder can hold, and the kicker can kick on the shop floor in that factory of sadness.

Florio’s pick:  Browns 13, Jaguars 10.

Rosenthal’s take: Tough choice. The immovable offense (Cleveland) goes up against the irresistible urge to always pick against Blaine Gabbert on the road.  These are similarly dreary teams, lucky to be 3-6. Jacksonville has the better running game and defense to overcome their struggling young quarterback.

Rosenthal’s pick: Jaguars 17, Browns 10.

Panthers at Lions

Florio’s take:  Detroit has the perfect chance to right the ship after an embarrassing loss in Chicago.  But if Ndamukong Suh tries to rip off Cam Newton’s helmet, there’s a good chance that Newton will rip off Suh’s helmet in response.  For that reason alone, this one is worth watching.

Florio’s pick:  Lions 35, Panthers 27.

Rosenthal’s take: I’m not sure how the Titans stifled Carolina’s running game, but I don’t expect the trend to continue. Detroit has just the overaggressive, soft-against-the-run defense that Cam Newton and company can exploit. Unfortunately, nearly any team can exploit the Panthers defense.

Rosenthal’s pick: Lions 34, Panthers 31.

Buccaneers at Packers

Florio’s take:  The Bucs have played twice against 3-4 defenses in 2011.  And they’ve been outscored 85-12 by the 49ers and the Texans.  The Packers use a 3-4 defense.  Uh-oh.

Florio’s pick:  Packers 42, Buccaneers 10.

Rosenthal’s take: It’s a bad sign when Albert Haynesworth is trying to rally the troops. The Bucs are a sneakily terrible team because there isn’t one thing they do particularly well. The Packers do one thing better than any squad since the ’07 Patriots: throw the ball. That’s more than enough against an imploding Bucs defense.

Rosenthal’s pick: Packers 38, Bucs 14.

Bills at Dolphins

Florio’s take:  With their first home victory since December 2009, could Miami win a second straight game at Sun Life Stadium?  A few weeks ago, beating the Bills would have been unthinkable.  Now that the Bills are bumbling a bit, the Fins could have a chance.  If the Bills can’t right the ship after getting blown out by the Cowboys, the Bills will have no chance to get to the postseason.

Florio’s pick:  Bills 28, Dolphins 24.

Rosenthal’s take: This is a massive game for the Bills, who can’t afford to lose in Miami after consecutive blowout defeats to the Ryan brothers. Buffalo gets the Dolphins at the wrong time. Matt Moore has settled down. The offensive line is playing much better. Brandon Marshall has gone beast mode, and Karlos Dansby has played himself into shape. Andrew Luck is far in the rearview mirror now.

Rosenthal’s pick: Dolphins 23, Bills 20.

Raiders at Vikings

Florio’s take:  In a rematch of Super Bowl XI, it feels like the team that hasn’t been back in 35 years will need at least another 35 years before it will return.  With Carson Palmer getting comfortable and Antoine Winfield done and the Vikings close to giving up, this one could get ugly.

Florio’s pick:  Raiders 35, Vikings 21.

Rosenthal’s take: Don’t be surprised if the Raiders have a two-game division lead after this week. The Vikings don’t have the passing attack to take advantage of Oakland’s biggest weakness – the secondary. Carson Palmer has the arm strength and weapons to score on the league’s 31st-ranked defense in points allowed.

Rosenthal’s pick: Raiders 30, Vikings 24.

Cowboys at Redskins

Florio’s take:  Even though the Cowboys are making a move to the top of the division and the Redskins are sliding into irrelevance, the records get thrown out the window whenever these two get together.  Except this time.  The Redskins are falling apart, and no amount of hatred of the Cowboys should make a difference.

Florio’s pick:  Cowboys 28, Redskins 14.

Rosenthal’s take: Everything is looking up in Dallas. DeMarco Murray completes an offense that has started connecting on vertical passes again. The Cowboys defense has consistently been good all year, Eagles loss aside. This is usually a game the Cowboys blow, but these dreadful Redskins are beyond redemption. I’d stake my reputation on it.

Rosenthal’s pick: Cowboys 27, Redskins 17.

Cardinals at 49ers

Florio’s take:  For any other team, like the one coached by Jim Harbaugh’s brother, this would be a trap game.  For the 49ers, the team walking into the trap is the Cardinals.

Florio’s pick:  49ers 24, Cardinals 13.

Rosenthal’s take: Let’s not get carried away with John Skelton hype; the Cardinals are winning because their defense woke up. Skelton had a ton of mistakes and missed throws against Philly. Arizona’s defense gave Skelton 15 drives to work with. Two of Skelton’s biggest plays came after balls tipped by Eagles defenders.  The luck runs out in San Francisco.

Rosenthal’s pick: 49ers 20, Cardinals 11.

Seahawks at Rams

Florio’s take:  Last year’s top two teams from the NFC West get together for the first time since last year’s Week 17 elimination game for a game that is largely meaningless.  OK, it’s completely meaningless.  Except for Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo, who needs more wins in order to have a shot a returning next year.

Florio’s pick:  Rams 20, Seahawks 17.

Rosenthal’s take: The nicest thing I can say about this game: I’d rather watch it than Jaguars-Browns. If you miss it, don’t worry. ESPN has the huge rematch on Monday night in three weeks.

Rosenthal’s pick: Rams 16, Seahawks 14.

Titans at Falcons

Florio’s take:  Last week, the Titans played on the road against an NFC South team.  This week’s NFC South team is slightly better.  And slightly more desperate.

Florio’s pick:  Falcons 31, Titans 20.

Rosenthal’s take: Tennessee is the worst 5-4 team in the league. I mean that as a compliment to coach Mike Munchak. The offense lacks playmakers. Cortland Finnegan is the only defensive player headed to the Pro Bowl. The schedule gets tougher from here and the Titans don’t have enough firepower to beat good teams on the road.

Rosenthal’s pick: Falcons 24, Titans 16.

Chargers at Bears

Florio’s take:  The Bears are peaking at the right time.  The Chargers are bottoming out at the wrong time.  Regardless of whether the Chargers kick to Devin Hester, they’ll likely be heading home with the Bears’ collective boot in their behind.

Florio’s pick:  Bears 34, Chargers 20.

Rosenthal’s take: It’s taken two months for everyone to realize the Chargers just aren’t very good. In nine weeks, they don’t have one truly impressive game. The defense has fallen apart faster than Florio’s PFT Picks record.  [Editor’s note:  We will soon be hiring a new writer.]  It’s also taken people a while to realize the Bears are legit.  Their offensive line injuries won’t matter against San Diego’s poor pass rush.

Rosenthal’s pick: Bears 30, Chargers 20.

Eagles at Giants

Florio’s take:  The playoffs start for the Eagles on Sunday night.  And the playoffs end for the Eagles on Sunday night.

Florio’s pick:  Giants 28, Eagles 17.

Rosenthal’s take: This game looked a lot better two weeks ago. You could make the argument the Eagles are still alive because a win here puts them two games back in the NFC East. That argument assumes the Eagles can beat teams like Arizona, much less the Patriots who arrive in Philly next week. The Giants will put a nail in Philly’s coffin before the Patriots get there.

Rosenthal’s pick: Giants 28, Eagles 20.

Chiefs at Patriots

Florio’s take:  Scott Pioli makes his return to New England.  Both he and the Patriots would likely be better off if he stays.

Florio’s pick:  Patriots 38, Chiefs 13.

Rosenthal’s take: This game also looked a lot better two weeks ago. The Chiefs were on top of the AFC West. Now they are the team that scored scored 13 combined points at home against Miami and Denver, then lost their starting quarterback.  A UFL team wouldn’t have cut Tyler Palko if he were still better than Joe Flacco.

Rosenthal’s pick: Patriots 31, Chiefs 14.

63 responses to “PFT’s Week 11 picks

  1. I’d like to see the giants sleep on VY and the Eagles and get punched in the mouth and the giants lose 2 back to back..Wont happen but I’d love to see and shut the giant’s and their fans up…

  2. Is it the bad teams Balt can’t beat, or teams that run a 4-3 defense? Check the numbers… it’s weird. Coincidence?

  3. i am a serious, diehard Packer fan and i cant believe everyone is picking the stupid idiot BEARS over the Chargers, have you guys gone and lost your minds?

    PHIL RIVERS>jay cutler

  4. You guys play it way too safe. As a suggestion, how about each of you predicting an “upset of the week.” It would make this predictable article much more interesting.

  5. The Eagles season was over before it started. They never were a threat with Vick at QB and Reid as there coach. Neither one never has and never will win anything. Keep dreaming Philly fans.

  6. I always look forward to the weekly picks. But it’s hard on the eyes looking for your take on certain games. Could you guys highlight the team matchups in bold red or perhaps a different color than black? Thanks for your consideration.

  7. I have been picking with Gregg every week in a pool of my own. I am currently dominating.

  8. Dont buy the hype on the Bears and 49ers. They are decent teams but will never sniff a super bowl as long as the Packers are around.

  9. greenpacker says:
    Nov 17, 2011 11:11 AM
    i am a serious IDIOT Packer fan and i cant believe everyone is picking the BEARS over the Chargers, of course I have gone and lost my mind?

    The Lord of No Rings loses once again.

    Fixed it for ya.

  10. @ greenpacker

    What does your being a packer fan add to your analysis of the bear-charger game?

    The bears right now are playing better football than the chargers. That’s about the only reason you need to favor them in this game. The bears defense is better, coaching is probably better, running game is better, special teams is better, and the game is at soldier field.

    Don’t misrepresent the Packer nation being a bias, division-hating fan. I’m a Packer fan, but can be realistic. The bears are heating up. Look out, NFC wildcard.

  11. I hate to be this guy, but have you guys thought about wrapping the games in an h3 tag or something. All the alternating bolds make the eyes glaze over after a while. No biggie. Feel free to delete.

  12. keephatinghaters77 –

    Giants’ fan here. What you say is exactly what will happen. If Young starts, the Eagles will win. As for your comment that you want to shut up the Giants and their fans, we’re not like you. We don’t start yapping and beating our chests after regular season wins (NE win aside!). This game isn’t our yearly Super Bowl like it is for Eagles’ fans.

  13. raiders need to win this game. I believe they will with CP3throwing all over the vikes. looking for a 2 game lead with bears comingto town next week

  14. I usually like Rosenthal’s insights. He seems pretty knowledgeable in his predictions. However, I dispute this:

    “The Vikings don’t have the passing attack to take advantage of Oakland’s biggest weakness – the secondary.”

    Oakland’s biggest weakness is its inconsistent run D. In its five wins, the Raiders are allowing like 3.5 YPC and only 1 TD. In four losses it’s giving up 6.5 YPC and 8 TDs.

    The Raiders are only allowing opposing QBs to complete 52.1% of their passes. That’s second-best in the league (behind only the Texans at 50.8%). They are 19th in the league in passing yards allowed, but that’s primarily because teams are attempting more than 40 passes per game against them. Only the Bears, 49ers and Patriots fall into that category with Oakland.

    All that aside, this game does worry me. Minnesota is much better than its record, IMO. They were very close and could’ve probably won 5 of the 7 games they lost with a break here or there in each of those. Plus this is the first dome game we’ll play all year and as good as Palmer’s been, this is really only his 3rd full week of practice with the team. Things are still coming together.

    Still hope and expect the Raiders to win, but I don’t think it’s going to be a walk.

  15. This Packers fan thinks the Bears will use and abuse the Chargers. Cutler is halthy and playing behind an improved offensive line. Rivers is clearly missing something this year. Sproles?
    Would the Packers be better off if the Chargers won? Absolutely. Is that going to cloud my judgement? No way, no how. The other Packers fan picking the Chargers needs to pick teams he believes will win and not the ones he wants to win.

  16. The Bengals always have a good chance to beat the Ravens since they always play them tough. The deciding factor in this game is whether A.J. Green plays or not. The Ravens stand a much better chance if he doesn’t play, or misses a large portion of the game. Hopefully they right the ship leading into the Har-Bowl Thanksgiving night.

  17. ronswansonsdinner says:
    Nov 17, 2011 12:06 PM

    SMH at the Bucs Packers picks. As a Bucs fan, it should be Packers 49-Bucs 7.

    Despite what you saw Monday, if its as one sided as most are thinking, don’t think they’ll run up the score that much. I think they just wanted to kill the Vikes cuz they could. Against the Bucs, I think they’ll go into prevent mode and run out the clock earlier. I’m thinking 38 – 17 or 24. Somewhere around there

  18. forci8 sez:
    “They never were a threat with Vick at QB and Reid as there coach. Neither one never has and never will win anything.”

    Not that I think the Eagles win this week/year, but what’s this? Gotta love those illiterate cowturds fans.

  19. jakek2 sez:

    “Giants’ fan here…. If Young starts, the Eagles will win. As for your comment that you want to shut up the Giants and their fans, we’re not like you. We don’t start yapping and beating our chests after regular season wins (NE win aside!). This game isn’t our yearly Super Bowl like it is for Eagles’ fans.”

    Three comments:
    1 – the NYG win this game going away, regardless of whether VY plays. Unless they choke big time (as they tend to do vs. Philly).
    2 – NYG fans are actually a lot like Philly fans, except cruder.
    3 – If there is a yearly SB for Eagles fans, it’s not vs. NYG. Think all hat, no cattle.

  20. Rosenthal’s pick: Cowboys 27, Redskins 17
    Do you really think these Redskins can score 17 points against a reasonable defense like Dallas’?

    Redskin fans can consider the game a moral victory if they score more than 10 points.

  21. Any body who thinks the Packers win on Monday, makes it a cake walk against the Vikings the rest of the year. Doesn’t know football.
    Wake up analyst writers. You have been wrong more times than right this year. Nobody know so much they can’t be wrong.
    Ponder though young, is smart. He will do much better than you give him credit for.

  22. The Chargers are due to get hot again. If they come out swinging Chicago could be in trouble.
    The Vikings at home could turn this game around. Ponder can now relax and just play and not worry about the division.
    For the Lions this is a big game, in close games they have gotten lucky and luck always runs out. Its time for a correction game from the Panthers. Plus the Lions are going to be more concerned and looking towards the Packers. If they lose that one they are in trouble in the division.
    The Cardinals have a weird history of being spoilers and the 49’ers are not as good as they think they are.

  23. jvibottomline says:
    Nov 17, 2011 12:22 PM
    Don’t buy the hype on the Packers, the 49ers are the best TEAM in football today.

    The best team in football is whatever team Aaron Rodgers plays for. It doesn’t matter how much better the rest of the team is. Not saying I don’t think the 49ers could beat them, but it’s preposterous to say any team is better than the Packers right now.

  24. @ autumnwind…love what you bring to the table knowledge wise. There are a lot of really good Raiders fans on here (Chairman Al, etc). The ones who visited the Pats board when they played were pretty good also. I think your fanbase gets a bad rap. I am glad to hear your pass D is that good overall since that makes me feel a bit better about TB’s struggles against Oak this year.

    MF, why do you think the Pats would be better with Pioli? I admit I was very worried when he left but the Pats drafts haven’t been worse (as much as one can evaluate in that short time) since he left.

  25. M – Browns 13, Jaguars 10
    G – Jaguars 17, Browns 10

    This is a good example of why you are 11 games behind.

  26. Mike Zimmer’s defense is 3-1 against the Ravens. Marvin Lewis is 10-6 against his old team. The Bengals swept the Raven in ’05, ’07, and ’09…….weren’t they decent to good those years? Yes, yes they were! It’s an odd numbered year again so I guess the sweep is in order, lol. Also, Dunlap, Green, Gresham, and Pacman are likely to play. Only Gresham played in a limited number of snaps last week. Pitt was on the ropes with those guys out and Hall and Green not playing for the majority of the game. Please do sleep on the Bengals.

  27. thankheavenfornumberseven says:
    Nov 17, 2011 12:54 PM
    jvibottomline says:
    Nov 17, 2011 12:22 PM
    Don’t buy the hype on the Packers, the 49ers are the best TEAM in football today.

    The best team in football is whatever team Aaron Rodgers plays for. It doesn’t matter how much better the rest of the team is. Not saying I don’t think the 49ers could beat them, but it’s preposterous to say any team is better than the Packers right now.

    The 49ers couldn’t beat the packers unless the packers all died. The niners have played one good team. What happened? They lost. The 49ers are the worst 8-1 team ever.

  28. Hey now, some of us were pointing out in weeks 3 and 4 that the Chargers were winning like the Redskins (barely and ugly against bad teams), but they were still ranked at #7. Some of us noticed early on!

    Nice crack about the Monday night game in 3 weeks… Ugh. I’ll try to sound magnanimous when I let my wife choose what to watch that night. Win-win!

  29. You both predicted the Ravens over the Bengals.

    Mike, I tought you’d go the other way on that one.

    While I *think* the Ravens *should* win. I have to *believe* the Bengals are more consistent.

    I’ll lean towards the Bengals for this one.

  30. @forci8………. Well i guess the whole league better stop playing then right? I mean you seem to imply the pack is going to win at least the next 10 superbowls. smh

  31. Somehow, I wish the Redskins could win this game. Can’t see it, wouldn’t bet on it, but I’d love nothing more this football season…..maybe if they run Helu 55 times and Rex goes 2 for 8 passing, with one being a long touchdown strike…..

  32. Last week every “expert analyst” gave my hawks virtually no chance against the ravens, and look at what happened. I know they dont have the best record but the hawks are improving week by week and theyre going to surprise a lot of people this later half of this season. pft’s hate for seattle cracks me up. the hawks couldnt even get a article when they beat baltimore ( it was because the ravens “slipped up”). im sure my post will get deleted but I love how you all sleep on the less popular teams. im surprised you all even reported carpenter getting hurt. I had to read the seattle times page when moffit got injured because I guess seattle isnt important enough to have injury updates on our players. and fyi aldon smith should be droy.

  33. The only reason Detroit is perceived as soft against the run is the one or two big runs they give up per game to backs like Forte, Turner, Gore, etc.

    The rest of the carries are for little or no gain.

  34. tokyosandblaster says:
    Nov 17, 2011 2:17 PM
    The 49ers couldn’t beat the packers unless the packers all died. The niners have played one good team. What happened? They lost. The 49ers are the worst 8-1 team ever.

    Not a 49ers fan, but I am a fan of the truth. SF won at Cincinnati, at Detroit, and at home against the Giants. Those teams are all 6-3. The “one good team” they lost to is Dallas, who is 5-4. Is Dallas really better than those other teams? Sounds like typical Packer fan logic.

  35. I’m still not buying the Niners just yet. I’ll buy Harbaugh as an EXCELLENT coach and I believed that even before the season began.

    They’re having a nice season, no doubt, but I feel like it’ll be one of those deals like the ’10 Falcons. Great reg season, quick exit in the playoffs. I’d like the Bears and Saints (and obviously Packers) over them in the postseason right now. Niners-Giants or Niners-Cowboys or Niners-Falcons would be a toss-up.

  36. Lol. Typical idiot logic. I watch most of the games. See where those teams end up. Lions, bengals, and Giants won’t make the playoffs. The cowboys will win that division.

  37. these guys should stick to posting about contracts and arrests and stuff like that. The more they post about actual football, the more it becomes so obvious they know so little about it.

    Besides, if you are going to make picks, be useful and make them against the spread.

  38. I look forward to your guy’s pick’s every week! I am currently is a very large football pool and just took over 1st place with 113 wins! This is a pool primarily made up of men, so as one of the only women, I am feeling great! I do have one favor though. Thursday is Thangsgiving and our picks have to be in Wednesday early afternoon. Anyway to get you boys to post them tomorrow morning instead of your normal Thursday??? Please????

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