Colts will have a hard time trading Manning

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As the Colts move closer and closer to clinching the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, some have suggested that the Colts could trade Peyton Manning if they know they’ll be getting Luck-y.

Not so fast, my friend.  (Which is now officially Lee Corso’s second best catch phrase.)

Peter King of Sports Illustrated reported during Football Night in America that Manning’s $28 million option bonus is due before the start of the 2012 league year.  Since no trades can happen until after the 2012 league year begins, the Colts won’t be able to trade Manning before the $28 million comes due.

And that means the Colts will be less likely to trade him after paying him another $28 million.

Of course, Manning could give the Colts some relief by agreeing to postpone the due date, if only by a few days.  But here’s the thing.  What’s in it for Manning?  If there’s a team that he’d like to play for and if that team is willing to pay him $28 million to walk through the door, why tie his new team’s hands by forcing the new team to give up two first-round picks or more to the Colts?  Those picks could be used to help improve Manning’s new team.

Thus, it’s in Manning’s best interests, if he’s going to leave Indy, to refuse to change the date and force his release.

Regardless of how it works out, it’ll be one of the most compelling stories of the offseason.

68 responses to “Colts will have a hard time trading Manning

  1. Why would they trade him? He’s like what 36 coming off off like 3 neck surgeries? I mean he’s one of the best, but no team would give up a lot for a guy who is clearly about to retire in the next two years.

  2. Obviously it depends on Manning’s long term prognosis as regards his health, but if it were me running the Colts, I’d stick with Peyton and extract a bevy of picks/players for that #1 pick from some QB needy team.

    But I’m just a guy on the Internet.

  3. I’m going to laugh when Peyton is tearing up the NFL again next season.

    CPOY, no question.

    He’s not done.

    I hope he’s out of Indy, though.

  4. Not gonna happen… If I’m the Colts, I take Luck and let him sit behind Manning for as long as Manning wants to play. When Luck does get on the field, he’ll be R.E.A.D.Y. Kind of like Rodgers.

    Would have loved to have Luck for my Fins, but I’m also pretty happy that our team had enough character to say “F@#k Suck for Luck” and get it together these last few games. Still some super QBs left in the draft, and we all know that NOBODY is a slam dunk these days…

  5. I’m not a Colts fan but I just hope the guy is healthy enough to play again. Greatness and class rolled into one.

    That being said, if he does leave the Colts, a lot of people would want to get their hands on him and I think the Jets might be at the top of the list. He would probably love to go to NY where he would play for a ready made contender just waiting for a QB. Additionally, he and Eli could hang out together all year.

  6. Luck remains the most overhyped prospect I’ve ever seen, and I’m not just saying that to be different.

    I’ve been more impressed by Barkley this year.

  7. I’m not at all sold on luck. Based on the games I’ve seen him play in recently, he either can’t or won’t throw outside the numbers. He has a damn good offensive line and running game that he leans heavily on. Personally, I’d take Barkley over Luck, despite the ineptitude of the last guy drafted out of usc. Suck for luck is a fun rhyme and all, but I’m not buying into the hype at all. Solid college qb, questionable pro prospects.

  8. bigshirk,

    I would tend to agree with you, but if they can save $28 million, think of the talent they could sign with that money to surround Luck with. Definitely resign Reggie Wayne. You could also get some OL help and some defense help.

    Who would trade for him? Washington

  9. The bigger question is whether Manning will ever be able to throw a football again. That nerve damage may just be career ending. I would hope that $28 million is conditional upon Manning passing a series of tests. If not, well, I think his broadcasting career starts fairly soon.

  10. bigshirk says:Nov 20, 2011 7:40 PM

    Why Trade Him? Let Luck Sit Behind Him for 1-2 Years….

    Bigshirk, that is my first thought too provided that Manning will be a WILLING mentor. If not, then they really would need to trade him away.

  11. What I don’t get is why Andrew Luck is still the undisputed best quarterback in this draft.

    Has any of these supposed “experts” seen Matt Barkley or Robert Griffin III play? I mean Barkley torched an Oregon defense in Eugene that Luck couldn’t handle in Palo Alto.

    I’m not saying Luck will be a bust it’s just that this draft is rich with elite quarterback talent. Sucking for Luck might not be as good as blowing for Barkley or giving up for Griffin.

  12. bigshirk says:
    Why Trade Him? Let Luck Sit Behind Him for 1-2 Years….

    That would create a serious salary cap issue for the Colts.

    Assuming that the Colts get the #1 pick overall (which seems likely) what the Colts do with Manning and the Luck pick will be one of the most compelling off-season stories ever, with far reaching and long term implications that will effect the NFL over the next 15 years.

  13. They’d be better off trading the pick for multiple picks, taking a QB of the future, plus find some football players to replace the bunch they have now. They might be able to get Barkley plus a first next year, plus more for ‘the next Elway.’ Look what the Falcons gave up last year for a receiver.

  14. Agreeing with Bigshirk. However, one downside is that you have to pay Luck #1 pick money for riding the bench.

    Also, with the new rookie wage scale, the Colts will probably only get a four year contract with Luck. Depending on how long Manning keeps playing, that could end up giving the Colts very little actual playing time with Luck before they have to give him a new contract.

    On the plus, they won’t be on the hook for as much money. Cam Newton’s contract only had $22million guaranteed.

  15. Here’s the thing …..Manning has never struck ANYONE as a “team first” guy.

    He isn’t going to be interested in mentoring Luck or anyone else. He’ll work his a$$ off if he’s going to be the starter, and he won’t do a thing to groom his replacement.

    That’s just who he is.

    Sadly, I don’t think this will even matter, I strongly suspect Manning is done.

    He’ll be lucky if he can lift his arm above his shoulder, and if he can, he’s 36, had 3 neck surgeries, and will get KILLED behind that O line. He’ll want no part of that.

  16. Who said Indy was taking Luck? I know the media wants you to.believe that. but I am pretty sure Indy couldn’t even give you a top five right now. The combine is in what, Feb? They are still playing football right now, well at least attempting to….kinda

  17. I never thought I would say this, but their aren’t a whole lot of teams that would trade for him in the first place…. maybe 5 teams. Wash, KC, Miami, Seattle, and Cleveland. Every other team either already has a solid QB or they just used a high pick on a young QB.

    The market for Manning is not as demanding as you make it out to sound.

  18. I agree with most posts suggesting that Luck is not a slam dunk. My amateur eye sees more talent and NFL arm in Barkley. That included the USC/Stanford game and Barkley lighting up Oregon – I just dont see it right now and dont think you will till he gets in the NFL. Why would you trade away an NFL HOF QB (assuming he is healthy)

  19. @trbowman – you are funny. Once the Colts get rid of this guy, maybe they will actually have a chance at another SB……spread the money around that they waste on this over-rated buffoon!!!!

  20. I think the only way Manning stays is if Indy promises to trade the top pick, get a kings ransom, and go all in to winning now. Taking Luck and keeping Manning at 28 mil does nothing to improve the roster Indy has, which if you haven’t noticed has crater sized holes in it. I think Manning walks

  21. Let luck sit behind him and learn the Manning system and they can carry that style for another 10 years

  22. Since Manning was drafted by the colts they have been to the playoffs almost every year (I know they missed the first season maybe second?) but without him the colts can’t win period, he deserves the MVP for that. Manning is the colts without him they are the team they were before they drafted him. Trading Manning is nonsense

  23. Anybody who wants a QB to lead you to the playoffs and go out in the first round should trade for him. Sorry, but his most famous pass was a pick six in the Super Bowl. Over-rated. Truth hurts.

  24. Here is how things will go:
    Colts will trade away first pick to a team needing a quarterback that is only a few picks down in the draft. Therefore, they will move down a few slots in the first round and maybe pick up an extra second round pick. They will draft Barkley and let him sit behind Peyton for a couple of years. Then they will waste their other pics on players that will be poor special teams players…

  25. Polian will probably surprise everyone, trade the #1 pick for a ton of picks, and take Barkley in a trade-up, or something to that effect. He did it in 1999 with Edgerrin James, and everyone tore him up for it (how did that work out?). And also remember, a lot of pundits questioned him for taking Manning over Leaf. I remember when SI wrote a piece after Leaf had won his first two games with the Chargers, questioning if the Colts made the right call…hilarious in hindsight. I don’t buy the Luck hype either; Polian has been scouting him and will make the right call. He has missed on a few 1st rounders lately, but late 1st rounders are harder to peg than top draft picks. He’ll make the right call when it comes to luck. And everyone saying Manning will be paralyzed from a bad hit needs to remember that a lot of NFL players have had the same neck fusion that Manning had, players that take a LOT more punishment than a QB. And they’ve been fine. The big question is the nerve regeneration.

  26. Caseyanthonymunoz-
    Please see my post right before yours, that’s not overrated, he’s the best qb of this era, the performance of the colts without him just shows how good he is. For the Tom Brady fans, look how the pats did without him, yea they didn’t make the playoffs but they had a winning record.

    If Manning retired with only one ring, that would be a travesty

  27. Peyton is far from done. Question is, if he has to go somewhere else, how long will it take for that offense to adapt to his system. It will be HIS system and he will again be very successful. Guaranteed!

  28. This may be far out there, but what about Dayne Crist? He’s not playing for ND right now b/c he doesn’t really fit their offense, but was the consensus #1 QB coming out of HS. He’s a pro-style QB with a cannon who had a bad start and got yanked, and Kelly stayed with the hot hand (Rees)…More than once commentators have said he could be another Matt Cassel-type guy. Just a wild thought.

  29. Andrew Luck: the surest NFL QB prospect since nobody could decide between Peyton Manning… Ryan Leaf.

    I’m not saying Luck will flop. I wish him the best wherever he lands. But seriously people, let’s not forget ourselves. He may or may not be the savior of the franchise that gets him. He’s just this years hottest commodity who’s never played an NFL down.

  30. He won’t get traded, First round picks are cheap now so they can keep Luck and let him sit for two years. They will probably let Wayne go and maybe Mathis.

  31. Manning isn’t going anywhere. He will work a deal with the Colts so they don’t get screwed over. He wants to retire a Colt and play for just 1 team.

    Manning has enough money for 10 life times and is a sure fire first ballot HoF. He has young children and seems to have a good head on his shoulders, he will make the right decision for his family and the Colt’s organization.

  32. Sadly, my gut tells me he’s going to have to retire but he’ll at least have the decency to tell the team so they can draft accordingly. i think this is playing out so long because he’s just determined to do what i’m guessing several doctors have already told him he cannot…play football again. it has to be tough to be forced away from the game like this.

  33. Manning gets 28 mill. If luck gets the same as cam newton’s guarantee it’d be 22 mill. Thats fifty mill for 2 guys, one has serious neck injuries, the other hasnt played a down in the nfl yet. They wouldnt be able to keep their best de mathis. What if peyton cant play and luck gets hurt?
    Colts need to slang this pick to cleveland or washington. They could still get a qb, get more offensive weapons, another tackle, and keep mathis. Makes the most sense to me.

  34. Either way the Colts need to take a future QB this year..Manning or no Manning. Theres a good crop this year and we all know what Painter is. Manning could come back and get injured his 1st game. Then what? Back to Painter? Oh but you got a bunch of draft picks that mean nothing with no QB. If u havent noticed Offenses rule the NFL now.

  35. Unless you want Luck to fail Tim Couch style your best bet for the Colts would be to keep Manning for the next two years he has left in his career anyway and use him as a mentor for the kid. It’s not like the Colts have the best coaching staff or a real offensive coordinator to guide lucks career or anything.

  36. Hell, the stupid Colts are keeping him on the roster paying him his full salary where he should have been put on IR to start the year. It’s their own fault if they pay him another $28 million, he can’t play, and is forced to retire. It’s one thing to show goodwill towards the face of your franchise, I get it, but it’s another to put the franchise in a poor cap situation due to your own stupidity.

  37. I think GM’s should be climbing over each other to get Manning for a 2nd rounder and 15,000 commercials to be named later.

  38. trevor123698 says: Nov 20, 2011 10:51 PM

    Im speculating but I think if Harbaugh could have brought home a national title with Luck he would have stayed put.


    VS his best chance to go to the next level AND remain close to home with the ultimate challenge of turning around a poorly coached, talented team…. I’m not thinking so…. It’s also working out pretty well considering the critics that said Harbaugh wouldn’t succeed early are the same ones that also said Luck would fizzle badly and possibly drop as far as the 3rd rd.

  39. Depending on which source you use Manning has either $28 million or $48 million in option bonuses tha would have to be paid out immediately on consummation of a trade, whenever it occurred if the bonuses had not already been paid. That figure would hit the cap and Peyton’s wallet at the moment the trade was approved by the league office.

    Peyton Manning is going nowhere next season. The only way the Colts are going to get out of paying those bonuses is if Manning files retirement papers before they are due or if the Colts cut him.

    I don’t know where the idea that the Colts have a window to trade him came from. The CBA still states that all option bonuses accelerate onto the cap and into the player’s pocket upon approval of a trade involving the player.

  40. What makes some people so sure Luck would be willing to sit behind somebody for two years?

  41. I love it when you guys starting talking like the NFL is Madden 2011.

    Magic trades that defy logic and reality.

  42. This website had done a poor job of informing fans of Mannings situation. Probably because the Colts suck and they have bigger and better fish to fry.

    Manning signed what is essentially a one year deal with a four year extension. In order to trigger the last four years of Mannings contract the Colts have to pay him a huge bonus before the start of the league year. If the Colts don’t pay that bonus Manning is a free agent and the Colts are not on the hook for anymore salary.

    The Colts also have contracts coming up for aging stars such as Saturday, Wayne, Mathis. In fact many of their starters have contracts that expire in 2011 or 2012. The Colts really set things up to ride this train through 2012 and then rebuild.

    Mannings injury upped the timeline.

    The Colts could fit both Manning and Luck under the salary cap, that isn’t the problem. The problem is the combined up front cash that will be somewhere in the neighborhood of $40m. That is a lot of money. Plus if you are still trying to win a Super Bowl you MUST resign Wayne which brings the up front cash money due to around $50m.

    And then if you trade Manning you take a cap hit on any of that money that hasn’t been accounted for yet which puts a crimp in your future salary cap which no smart team wants to do.

    The smart, but difficult decision, is to let Manning become a free agent and start over.

  43. I wish I could disagree with everybody yelling “Redskins trade 100 first rounders for Manning”, but this has classic Dan Snyder written all over it.

    Please Dan, don’t do it. We need a qb of the future for once under your ownership.

  44. So far, it appears Peyton has tried to be fair with the Colts – can’t imagine that will change – he was raised right. Here’s hoping he retires as a Colt and is in line to be the coach – heaven knows we need one! The events of this season only go to show just how much he has meant to the Colts all these years……..I hope if someone has to go, it is the Polians!

  45. It would be interesting to see the Colts draft Luck only to spend nearly $40m a year just to keep him and P on the roster. If Luck is supposed to be NFL-ready do you really need a $28m tutor. If the Colts draft Luck and he sits behind P for 2 years, wouldn’t it be better to trade the top pick and acquire as much as possible and really really really build a team. Here goes a crazy idea….draft a qb in the 6th round and let him sit behind P and learn…. similar to Brady behind Bledsoe.

    Keep in mind that while Arod did sit behind Favre, the only thing he learned was how to deal with adversity and chaos.

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