The official PFT draft grades

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The NFL draft always comes in like a mountain lion on HGH and goes out like a comatose lamb.  Now that all the names have been called and the teams are scrambling for training-camp tackling dummies, it’s time to hand out official grades.

And, as usual, we give every team the same grade:  Incomplete.

It’s too early to know how any of these teams have done, because no one has any idea how any of these players will perform until they step onto an NFL field and face competition significantly greater than anything they ever have faced before.  Some will slam against a ceiling that no one knew existed between their abilities in college and in the NFL.  Others will surpass even the wildest hopes or expectations that anyone currently could have of them.

Some will seemingly do a deal with the devil, going from widely-overlooked 199th overall pick to one of the best to ever play his position.

Even though there’s no way of knowing what will happen, that doesn’t stop people from pretending to know, all in the hopes of satiating the public’s unquenchable thirst for reasons to be optimistic that their favorite teams could possibly find a way this year to navigate through their schedule and make it to the playoffs.  And given the multiple recent examples of teams turning a skin-of-their-teeth postseason berth into a Super Bowl win, there’s never been a better time to sell hope.

When it comes to selling hope, however, it’s important to be realistic.  And anyone who pretends to know how these players will translate to the NFL in light of decades of history proving that it’s a crapshoot simply isn’t being realistic.

81 responses to “The official PFT draft grades

  1. I can’t disagree with your sentiment at all concerning draft grades. You need a year at the very least, probably 3 to truly evaluate a draft class. So with that in mind why not do draft grades the right way…start handing out grades for last years or 3 years ago’s draft. That would actually be an interesting read.

  2. Mike, thank you. Thank you…THANK you!! Last night Ron jaworski was screaming “qb controversy” DC and the thought of listening to Trent Dilfer dishing out draft grades and Mel kipers mock 2013 draft is making my stomach churn..

    at least 1 person on the Internet has enough decency to (god forbid) let things just play out!

  3. I agree 100%. It’s all speculation at this point. Someone should grade the draft “experts” a year from now and give THEM a grade on how well they did on grading the draft.

  4. It wouldve been the usual gushing over Jerry Reese, Ozzie Newsome , the Eagles and Steelers anyway. Thanks for not grading…really, I mean that.

  5. These players were selected by massive amounts of research and with grades placed on them in advance. While I agree all are incomplete, preliminary grades can be placed using the criteria all of you gurus used to grade the players out in the first place. Potential, not results.

  6. And remember, to properly grade the Raiders draft one must factor in Carson Palmer, Terrelle Pryor, Aaron Curry, Taiwan Jones, and Joe Barksdale.

  7. Excellent article Mike. Like everyone else,I have some strong opinions on whom and who did not had good drafts. The real answer won’t be known for a few years.

    Just a few here,but anyones guess is as good as mine

    Good- Vikes trading back one slot,still getting the player they wanted and picking up more choices in the process.

    Jacksonville- Moving up to take Blackmon before the Rams. If you are sold on Gabbert,you have to give him weapons.

    Dallas- Moving up to take Claiborne who I felt was the best player regardless of position in the draft. Victor Cruz and Desean Jackson have killed the Cowboys recently and now the pokes have a man who can limit the damage they do.

    Question marks here

    Cleveland- taking the Vikes bait. Imo,the jets were never a serious threat to trade up for Richardson. If they had stayed put,he would have been there at 4 and they could have kept those extra picks to help build a poor overall roster.

    Bucs- In my opinion should have stayed at 5 and taken Claiborne. They face Drew Brees,Matt Ryan and Cam Newton twice a year. Rhonde Barber is aging. Talib may be in jail and not on the field this year. If you lack a good corner in the NFC South,opposing Qb’s will make you pay dearly. Mark Barron was a great college safety. The SEC has historically been the best overall conference,but this year the SEC didn’t produce a QB who’s going to play at the next level like the Big 12. How well does Barrons game translate to the pass happy NFL is a very big ?. When you are picked at #7,you better be the next coming of Palamalu or Ed Reed. I’m not sold on Barron having their coverage ability.

    Rams- After Blackmon was off the board,I felt they traded back with the belief Michael Floyd would still be there. Brockers is a good player,but doesn’t fill their biggest need which is receiver help for Qb Sam Bradford.

  8. It’s okay to give a grade based on what you know/believe today and then re-evaluate later on. It’s sports talk, that’s what you do! This article just came off as lazy. No offense, because I usually dig what you do.

  9. I gave Mel Kiper’s hair a B-. It fills a need, but is too much of a project for when he picked it.

  10. There has been lazy reporting here for years. Why should this come as a shock to anyone?

    Vikes – A

  11. Kudo’s….finally a place where they can acknowledge
    that a draft grade is decided down the road, Mike I think your finally getting something right !

  12. This is what I tell people all the time. This isn’t gonna matter in three years so I’ll just complain about it, make fun of others for doing it and not do it/half-ass it. You guys speculate on this site all the time, but draft grades are where you draw the line.

  13. And anyone who pretends to know how these players will translate to the NFL in light of decades of history proving that it’s a crapshoot simply isn’t being realistic.

    And anyone who pretends that those grades are intended in any way to be the final judgment of a draft class isn’t being realistic either.

    The grades are what they are: educated observers making their best guesses based on what we know now.

    It’s like a mid-term grade from a teacher. It can change, but right now this is what it is.

    Think, too, of who is reading. Not everyone can watch hours of film and break down several hundred players. At the end of the day, the common NFL fan just wants to know what the prevailing wisdom is regarding their team’s draft.

    If you misjudge the purpose of those grades that’s on you. If you therefore don’t want to provide grades, that’s on you.

    But don’t trick people into thinking they’re going to find a draft grade when they won’t. Selling out for page-views couldn’t be more transparent.

  14. Yeah Mike. All of us including both Howie and Jake Long know you never jump the gun on analysis.

    You know you would make a good lawyer….. oh….. that’s right.

  15. Seahawks draft grade from 2010 A+ Mel Kypers hair from 2012, You make the call. hawks 2010 draft. traded a 5th round pick to bills for marshawn lynch. Drafted pro bowlers earl thomas (1st rnd) and cam chancellor in the 5th. drafted russle okung our starting and rock solid left tackle. traded a pick to the jets for leon washington. 2010 was outstanding for the hawks. look back at your fav teams 2010 draft and post it here.

  16. oranjellojones says:
    Apr 29, 2012 9:22 AM
    I can’t disagree with your sentiment at all concerning draft grades. You need a year at the very least, probably 3 to truly evaluate a draft class. So with that in mind why not do draft grades the right way…start handing out grades for last years or 3 years ago’s draft. That would actually be an interesting read.

     —————————————————————————–

    Love the idea. In fact, why not revisit the draft grades that Kiper, McShay, etc. gave out 3 years ago and compare them to what these players turned out to be. I haven’t seen anyone revisit previous draft grades to prove how “smart” they are in forecasting these players to the NFL.

  17. Here ya go from a top NFL rater who wasn’t lazy.

    Arizona Cardinals – Grade: B+
    Atlanta Falcons – Grade: C
    Baltimore Ravens – Grade: B
    Buffalo Bills – Grade: B
    Carolina Panthers – Grade: B
    Chicago Bears – Grade: C-
    Cincinnati Bengals – Grade: A
    Cleveland Browns – Grade: C
    Dallas Cowboys – Grade: B+
    Denver Broncos – Grade: B-
    Detroit Lions – Grade: B-
    Green Bay Packers – Grade: B
    Houston Texans – Grade: B-
    Indianapolis Colts – Grade: A-
    Jacksonville Jaguars – Grade: C
    Kansas City Chiefs – Grade: B+
    Miami Dolphins – Grade: C
    Minnesota Vikings – Grade: A+
    New England Patriots – Grade: A
    New Orleans Saints – Grade: D
    New York Giants – Grade: B
    New York Jets – Grade: C
    Oakland Raiders – Grade: D
    Pittsburgh Steelers – A
    Philadelphia Eagles – Grade: A+
    San Diego Chargers – Grade: B
    San Francisco 49ers – Grade: C+
    Seattle Seahawks – Grade: B
    St. Louis Rams – Grade: A
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Grade: B+
    Tennessee Titans – Grade: C
    Washington Redskins – Grade: A-

  18. Good one there, Mike.
    Why the sudden attack of conscience?
    I’m sure you’ve written dozens, or even hundreds of articles without really knowing what you’re talking about.

  19. Well done, Mike. I’m soooo incredibly tired of listening to experts all over the place grading teams on their draft within 24 hours of it being over.

    I’m pretty sure there were a lot of ‘experts’ that praised the Raiders right after their 2007 draft for getting their ‘quarterback of the future’.

    Give it a couple of years, then grade them.

  20. I’m perfectly fine with this…. as long as we some a draft of years past graded that is not “incomplete.”

  21. puckthefatriots says:
    Apr 29, 2012 10:29 AM
    @kingfish4242…If you are sold on Gabbert you need your head examined

    0 0

    ===============================
    I’m not sold on him at all. My point was if the Jags are sold on him they have to give him weapons. They did by moving up to take the highest rated Wr in the draft with Blackmon.

    Personally, I don’t see him as the starter in a few years.

  22. Obviously we can’t grade the players drafted yet, for many of the reasons you list in your post. However, we CAN grade the teams on whether we think they drafted according to their needs. Additional points can be awarded (making a smart trade) or deducted (making a dumb trade, reaching on a player and drafting him way too early).

    I would also like to echo the suggestion that you grade a few recent drafts.

  23. I love the grades and all the comments being made on the Networks, what I think is interesting the good and bad comments are coming from General Managers, Coaches who have been fired and cannot get another job or from the Insiders who have the same information we all have. You have to love it.

  24. The only way to grade the 2012 draft is to look at it from the perspective of what teams got the players they targeted. Add extra points to the teams that also got extra picks in the process. Obvious example Minny.
    To all those wanting grades and calling PFT lazy for not doing them, what grade did SD (was it them)get the year they drafted Leaf? Did it turn out to be accurate?
    And even grading that draft 3-4 years later, would any other team in need of a QB not have taken Leaf?
    Go back more recent, What was the grade for SF when they took Smith and Rogers fell to 22(ish)?
    Did it turn out to be accurate?
    Did anyone say SF should have taken Rogers?
    More recent, what were the grades for Houston, TN and New O for Williams, Young and Bush?
    We do all realize those top 3 picks, NONE are with their drafted team already. How many graded Houston low for taking the wrong one of the 3?
    I go back to this selection all the time. Parcells and the Cowboys had the pick, Stephen Jackson was there for the taking. Parcells made the great move of trading down, getting an extra pick and still getting the RB he wanted, Julious Jones. At the time GREAT move. Probably helped the Cowboys see the writers give them a A grade the next day. Today? Well how many RB’s has Dallas gone through since? It turned out to be a dreadful move.
    When was Reed drafted? Brady? Revis? How may of those type guys were part of low graded drafts that we now know were A+?

    But I agree it would be cool to see PFT and others release draft grades of past dradts. Taking into account the needs of the team at the time, the consensous value of the player at the time (can’t really zing WASH in 2016 if RGIII doesn’t work out. Everyone agrees they need a QB and everyone agrees he is the right pick at #2). They should also take into account the trades they made. (Julio Jones vs Baldwin on KC, Atlanta would have ended up with Baldwin if they did not make the trade)

  25. I 2nd the motion to grade the drafts from 2 or 3 years ago and compare them to what those idiot talking heads said immediately following the during the draft.

    Oh ya, and if you want a grade for this years draft, /random A B C D -Team %teamname%

    There ya go.

  26. This whole site has been nothing but speculations for the last 4 months. But now all of a sudden you are above that kinda thing? Ok then, how about rating last years draft, ya bum.

  27. If you do decide to do some type of draft analysis, please include players who teams lose draft picks for, but still get production from.

    The Raiders may have given up their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th picks in the draft, but except for the 4th pick, all of the players are on the roster and if they are still on the roster 3-4 years from now, there will be some impact from those “wasted” as some call them draft picks. These “wasted” picks needed to be included in the analysis.

    It would be interesting to see what your writers could come up with here Mike. What are the grades from the 2009 Draft class?

  28. Props to PFT.

    It’s a good move to not have an opinion after 12 hours.

    Unlike most of the other pundits that weigh in now, and then are either forgotten or no where to be found when their bold predictions swirl down the crapper…

  29. Here ya go from a top NFL rater who wasn’t lazy.

    Arizona Cardinals – Grade: B+
    Atlanta Falcons – Grade: C
    Baltimore Ravens – Grade: B
    Buffalo Bills – Grade: B

    ————————————————
    Anybody who throws out a draft grade the day after the draft is a fool. We will not know anything until mid season at the earliest.

  30. I understand and agree with your assessment of this year’s draft choices – every year its the same post…incomplete. How about, in the spirit of draft weekend, doing some assessment of last year’s picks, or two years ago and start completing your incomplete assessments?

  31. By the same logic, you should can your weekly power rankings.

    You can have a headline that says, “This Week’s Power Rankings,” and then write something lazy like, “We will know how good each team is when the season plays out in its entirety.”

  32. @bchapman2011

    Of course no one knows for sure how these picks will work out. However, based on the information available today, one can have an opinion. Are you saying you have no opinion about the choices your team made?

  33. @chandler1 good job on that list man.

    Now I might be biased in saying this because I am an Eagles fan, but am I crazy or did they have one kick ass draft.. I mean 3 of our first 4 picks were first round mentioned defensive names…

    I think Cox was a steal at 12 and Dallas really gambled with Claiborne.

    Can’t wait to see the Eagles defense next year!!

  34. oranjellojones says:
    Apr 29, 2012 9:22 AM
    I can’t disagree with your sentiment at all concerning draft grades. You need a year at the very least, probably 3 to truly evaluate a draft class. So with that in mind why not do draft grades the right way…start handing out grades for last years or 3 years ago’s draft. That would actually be an interesting read.

    Mike goes back in time to analyze the past drafts periodically. I have been a regular reader going on 8 years now.

  35. What gets me about draft grades is inevitably it’s always kinda skewed.

    Usually the teams drafting 1-15 are given high grades on their draft because they pick up all these top college players. Teams drafting 16-32 end up with B or so grades with ho hum reactions.

    Problem is – if you look at several years’ drafts – it’s always the same teams (give or take) drafting in the top 1/2 of the round. Year after year. If they were getting all the top talent and kept having these top drafts – why are they ALWAYS drafting in that front 1/2 of round 1?

    Seems to me that teams that consistantly draft in the 20’s are the ones who REALLY have good draft grades. They’re winners, consistantly and they consistantly do it without the supposed “top college players”.

    To me – a team’s draft grade is how often they’re drafting 20 or lower in round 1, year after year – not necessarily if they’re getting the “top college talent at #3 or 8” or whatever….

  36. Good post, Florio. I agree it’s mostly a crapshoot, but it’s not completely random. 1st rounders are more likely to be good than 2nd rounders, who are more likely to be good than 3rd rounders, and so on. If it’s completely a crapshoot there will be just as many good 7th rounders as there are good 1st rounders.

    Here’s an idea for testing this objectively. Compile a list of players who have been selected to the AP All-Pro 1st or 2nd team over the last 25 years, along with which round of the draft each player was selected in. (Not saying the AP always gets it right, but over the long term their hits and misses should balance out.) That would give you 22 players a year, plus a kicker and a punter, but I would suggest ignoring the kickers and punters since those positions are usually late round picks or even undrafted in many cases, which would skew the numbers in favor of later round draft picks since you’d be essentially guaranteed to have 2 late round picks on the list each year. Some players will be on the list multiple times, in which case they should be counted multiple times. After all, getting on the list just once isn’t as good as getting on it 5 times.

    Something similar was done here:
    http://nfl.si.com/2012/03/30/what-do-all-pro-teams-tell-us-about-nfl-draft/
    but he only went back to 2007, not enough of a sample size, but even there it’s obvious at a glance 1st rounders will dominate the list.

  37. teal379 says:
    Apr 29, 2012 5:41 PM
    What gets me about draft grades is inevitably it’s always kinda skewed.

    Usually the teams drafting 1-15 are given high grades on their draft because they pick up all these top college players. Teams drafting 16-32 end up with B or so grades with ho hum reactions.

    Problem is – if you look at several years’ drafts – it’s always the same teams (give or take) drafting in the top 1/2 of the round. Year after year. If they were getting all the top talent and kept having these top drafts – why are they ALWAYS drafting in that front 1/2 of round 1?

    ================================

    Good points,but playing devils advocate you could say teams that draft constantly in the 20’s are blessed with good Qb play. The position is without question the most important in all of team sports in my opinion.

  38. eagles4thering says:
    Apr 29, 2012 2:47 PM
    @chandler1 good job on that list man.

    Now I might be biased in saying this because I am an Eagles fan, but am I crazy or did they have one kick ass draft.. I mean 3 of our first 4 picks were first round mentioned defensive names…

    I think Cox was a steal at 12 and Dallas really gambled with Claiborne.

    Can’t wait to see the Eagles defense next year!!

    ===============================

    MSU alum here,so I’m biased towards Cox also. I believe the Eagles got the best D-Lineman in the draft. I don’t think he’ll be a stud in his rookie year though. He came out as a Jr and is still growing into his body. Before the draft I was telling my fellow Saints fans Cox has the potential to be a poor mans Reggie White. He’s one of those very rare 5 technique guys you can put at any spot on the line in a 4-3 or a 3-4 and get great production out of him.

    I have to disagree about Claiborne though. Imo, Dallas made a great move trading up for the best corner in this draft and several before it. Imo again, He’ll bring to the cowboys what revis brings to the jets. He’s going to limit the damage opposing #1 Wr’s will do. Those NFCE Wr’s won’t be running through that porous Cowboys secondary easily anymore.

  39. Grading the graders would be another interesting article. That would turn the tables wouldn’t it? Then adjust the 2012 grades based on the grader’s grades. For example, a grader with an F grade means a team he gave an F to in the 2012 draft now gets an A for the 2012 draft. That would be funny to see.

  40. Mock drafts are equally misguided but PFT still does those…

    Seems a little smug of you to thumb your nose at things you’re already so involved in. It’s pretty easy to tell which teams had better drafts than others right away, even if we have no idea how they’re going to turn out. The Bears, for example, had huge needs to fill on the O-Line and didn’t draft a single lineman. I’d say they failed. Eagles, conversely, addressed pretty much every position they needed with very good value within the draft—aced it. See how easy that was? Now, I could be wrong about those grades down the road, but then again, I also was wrong with my mock draft (as was every other person), so what’s the harm in trying? It’s your job to evaluate.

  41. kingfish4242 says:Apr 29, 2012 6:25 PM

    Good points,but playing devils advocate you could say teams that draft constantly in the 20′s are blessed with good Qb play. The position is without question the most important in all of team sports in my opinion.
    *******************************************

    True – but outside of Peyton Manning (#2) and Big Ben (#11) – some of the best QB play in the last 10 years has been from a 6th rounder – Tom Brady. Rodgers was #24 IIRC, Brees was a 2nd rounder. Again – teams in the last 1/2 of the first round making good decisions – haveing better drafts than they typically get credit for because they’re not drafting guys considered to be the top college talent. Still winning with that ‘handicap’ and such ‘ho-hum’ drafts.

    I was talking primarily first rounder, top 1/2 selections. I admit, I should have been clearer.

    Just, for me, I consider a team to have stellar drafts if year in and year out, they’er drafting 16th or later or if they only, very occasionally drop into that top 10 pick area and then move back to picking in later rounds.

    When you see a team like the Detroits of the past – chosing top 10 in round 1 for 3 or 4 years in a row – I don’t care whom they got – their draft sucked because they didn’t improve the team enough to get out of the bottom 1/3 of the league.

  42. Wow… way to be bold and put your name on the line. I can’t imagine why the whole “lawyer” thing didn’t pan out.

  43. “Some will seemingly do a deal with the devil, going from widely-overlooked 199th overall pick to one of the best to ever play his position.”

    Nice Bart Starr reference….thanks!

  44. @texmexdeux

    lolz….pretty sure the reference was supposed to be Brady, but I’m so sick of hearing about that story, and Starr was 199th overall and worked out pretty well too!

  45. Sometimes, I feel like people just don’t get the purpose of things. Draft grades aren’t given out to grade how productive the grader feels the players will be in the future or how many productive players the draft class will have. They are given to grade how the grader feels each team did in getting talent for the proper value of each of their picks (trading up, down and collecting more picks and such to get the best value) and how well each team did to fill perceived needs. That is the value of post draft grades. At least thats how Kiper uses his grades to grade teams and how true draftniks should use grades. It’s like mock drafts, nobody looks at mock drafts to see what their team will do. They look at them to get an idea of who might be there when their team is drafting. I feel that people that write up mock drafts should do them by writing who they would take if they were the GM of each team and not try to predict the picks.

  46. Im still trying to figure out how a team gets an A for a draft grade when all they did was draft tight ends? they IMO didnt address the defense especially the back end . I dont tsee the Colts winning mor ethan 3 or 4 gms this yr. they dont have a running gm their defense minus freeney is nonexistent and the back 7 of the defense is horrible. Pagano has his work cut .

  47. Oranjello,

    You are quite right. They do review thèse picks. However, it is only when next year’s draft comtes à round.

  48. When I see people grading drafts, I’m reminded that Matt Millen always received excellent grades for his drafts.

  49. I’ll take the data on the last 3, 5 and 10 years of draft data results:

    Who is the best existing GM on draft ‘success’.

    1 st Rounders, 2nd rounders, 3rd rounders.

    I believe i did see a story on that: Pittsburgh Steelers was considered to have a very good ‘draft’ history. Possible even a better free agent signing afterwards.

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