Playoff turnover trend may not hold this year

In recent years, playoff teams have been bounced from the next year’s postseason field at a rate of 50 percent.  Last year, precisely six of the 12 playoff teams from 2010 (three per conference) didn’t make it back in 2011.

This year could be the year in which the trend doesn’t hold.

MDS joined PFT Live on Monday to discuss/debate with yours truly the teams most likely to miss out on a return visit to the tournament from the dozen that made it in 2011:  the Patriots, Ravens, Texans, Broncos, Steelers, Bengals, Packers, 49ers, Saints, Giants, Falcons, and Lions.

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27 responses to “Playoff turnover trend may not hold this year

  1. Bengals and Lions.

    Lions wouldn’t have made it last year had Cutler gotten hurt.

    Bengals have a tougher schedule and eventually maybe people will figure out all Dalton does is throw it up to Green.

  2. How about “if Marion Barber didn’t throw the game away against Denver.”

    I hate hearing the “If X player didn’t get injured, X team would have made the playoffs”

    Injuries are apart of the game, blame the Bears for not having a capable backup.

    And I’m sorry but didn’t the Bengals have a pretty good defense and a pretty good run game to help them get into the playoffs? It was just “Dalton throwing it up to Green.” Bengals look like a pretty good up and coming team.

  3. The Bengals had a pretty good running game in Cedric Benson, who they let go and replaced with a guy who wasn’t even a full timer on a team that barely ran the ball…

  4. Comments on this topic are not fair and balanced (and for sure FOX News isn’t.) I’ll admit it. I’m a die hard Lions Fan, so guess what I think that the Lions, for sure, will make the playoffs and will do better than last year. Why?

    1) The Lions lost a few games during the middle of the year when Stafford had a broken index finger. Remember those interceptions against the Bears the first game after the injury. They will be better with a full 16 games of Stafford.

    2) The Lions were repeatedly forced to catch up in games early in the season, but by the end of the year their offense was humming. It will be better early on, and also having an outstanding new receiver in Ryan Broyles will make the passing game even better.

    3) The Lions will have a much better running game with Mikel LeShoure, who hasn’t even started a game yet, after the achilles tear before the season last year. Kevin Smith healthy and Best (until he gets his next concussion) will make a very good trio on the run.

    4) The pass defense was awful at the end of the year after 3 of the major players were injured. They are well and several new defensive players have come aboard.

    Overall, the Lions are going to be substantially better this year, and not regress to the mean (that means return to the average performance over time.) The Lions are on their up. Last year was but a stepping stone. We’ll talk again after the regular season.


  5. Why doesn’t anyone ever mention the fact that when the Lions played the Bears when Stafford didn’t have a broken index finger, when everyone on both teams were healthy, the Lions kicked the Bears A**. When both teams are healthy the lions are better, and younger. Stafford had a broken index finger on his throwing hand for four weeks and the Lions still won 10 games.

  6. wow i am impressed, of the comments so far, not one said the Falcons wont make it. but i am sure in the end they will be the #1 choice to not make the playoffs in 2012.

  7. Which teams won’t be back into playoffs?

    Bengals: this is NOT an odd-numbered year! In my memory I cannot remember the Bengals making the playoffs in an even numbered year.

    Every “expert” will pick the Bills to take their place (I don’t buy into that, however), despite a lousy QB in Fitzpatrick…I call it the Super Mario Effect.

    Saints: BountyGate plus no Sean Payton plus there may be some dissention among the players.

    Bear will take their place if Cowboys don’t. Bears almost made playoffs last year. So did Dallas.

    I agree, most of last year’s playoff teams will be back barring unforeseen cicumstances.

    In the middle of the decade, though, when Brady, Manning, Brees retires, and when Steelers, Ravens and Falcons implode (due to rebuilding offenses or defenses, and besides, Flacco and Ryan are grade A poseurs), that is when there will be serious changes in divisional titles.

  8. Saints and the Falcons out?

    I’m no Falcons fan, but I still see them going to the playoffs. Them winning a playoff game is a different story.

  9. Does anyone realize that Stafford did what he did last season and was 22 years old and playing in his first full NFL season. Oh ya….he won’t get any better. Lol. The Lions are LOADED with talent. There draft was smart and talent filled. They are faster at almost every position now. LBers will have played a full season together and only be better. Megatron will be even better this year. I could go on and on. The falcons and bears are so overrated it is funny.

  10. All I know is that the 49ers will make it further in the
    Play- offs than any other team, Because coach Harbough is smarter then even Bilecheat and tougher than any other! Take that to the bank MF’s.

  11. Hey, Lions fans – do you think your team will navigate the entire 2012 season without sustaining injuries? This is the NFL, where key guys get hurt every week. I can pretty much guarantee that the Lions will lose good players this season, too. Consistently good teams have rosters that are able to continue winning despite losing good players to injury.

  12. The Bengals and Lions seem to be the popular pick to be the two teams likely to crash back to reality. But, I think it’s just as likely that 2011 was the start of long term play-off runs for both. Great young QBs and WRs, emerging defensive stars on each squad.

    Tom Brady & Pats, Joe Montana & Niners sprung from relative obscurity to take the league by storm.

  13. Lions you got a gift last year and blew it. You really think that first game last year with the bears was a an a$$ kicking you won by what 7 or 10. News flash mike martz is gone incase you haven’t heard. Cutler will continue to pick your defense apart with an even better wr group. You also haven’t figured how to stop forte so good luck. Plus the second game last year you blame a broken finger on that great stafford performance, what I seen was bears defenders jumping the route’s. Because the gameplan didn’t change from the first game.

  14. Stafford hasn’t been through a full season without being injured. Last year he lucked out and didn’t have to miss a game. Unfortunately for lions fans he’s proven to be fragile and if/when he goes down, the lions playoff hopes go with him

    And please don’t forget how bad the lions secondary was, and if suh has another pedestrian year the lions won’t make it to the playoffs even with stafford healthy.

  15. truelionsfan

    I watched the entire first game between the Bears and Lions last year. Except for two very long plays (a Johnson 76 yard touchdown catch and run, and I believe a Best 77 yard touchdown run) the Bears contained the Lions offense fairly well. Two large mistakes cost the Bears that game.

  16. The Steelers and Giants will not make it, possibly the Falcons or Lions. Cincy could also be out, depending on how well Buffalo and the Jets play.

  17. The Pats offense looks to be unstoppable this year. Nocho Brainzo is gone (he just couldn’t mentally digest the system) and they’ve brought in Brandon Llyod who already knows… and excels… in the system. Even at this very early stage, it has become apparent that Brady and Llyod are clicking. Of course Wes Welker and Deion Branch will be in the mix and then they have brought in Brady favorites Jabar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth to compete for the remaining receiver position. I’m guessing that Gaffney gets it. Combine that with Gronk and Hernandez and WOW. Then there is the Pats defense. It was pitiful last year… no doubt… but they still made it to the Super Bowl. The Pats D looks to be much improved this year just based on gained experience for all the young guys and the fact that the Pats drafted almost exclusively defense in the draft and picked up defensive free agents. I don’t think the Pats defense will be world beaters this year….. but I do think they’ll be much better than last year….. and then again much better the next year (young players growing). They just went through a transition and the pieces now seem to be in place. A little seasoning and tenderizing is all it will take for the defense to jell. Considering the Pats had an absolutely hellacious defense last year and still made it to the Super Bowl, and now both the offense and defense looks to be better……..

    …….. it’s all just speculation and it’s all just good fun. I wish all the fans of all the teams a good year.

  18. The World Champion NY Football Giants will be back in the Playoffs and they will be a 1-2 seed and that Pass Rush that Bullied Dallas, GB, and Atlanta will be back on the Prowl. Dallas is up 1st to put the NFL on notice that the SB goes thru NY and 2time SB MVP Eli Manning, who feels slighted once again at 31 on top 100. This time he will only play 3 Playoff games instead of 4. 2 home games and another MVP performance in SB. Even tho I wouldnt mind beating Brady for a 3rd time, but lets spread the SB losses around. The Afc is not stopping the best pass rush in the NFL!!!

  19. Of all the playoff teams, only the 49ers can say that a QB injury wouldn’t be the end of their season. I guess that is the benefit of learning how to win with a QB that isn’t at that elite level. Every other successful team is so heavily dependent on great QB play (other than the Ravens) that one injury can spell disaster for their team. (Bears, Colts, Steelers, etc.)

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