Niners have big decision to make on Alex Smith

AP

On Sunday, FOX’s Jay Glazer pointed out that the 49ers could part ways with quarterback Alex Smith, given that he has $8.5 million due in 2013.

We’ve gotten a look at the contract, and which lays out the specific formula andtimetable.

For starters, Smith has $1 million in fully-guaranteed salary for 2013.  Another $1.5 million is guaranteed for injury only.

The full $7.5 million in base salary becomes fully guaranteed on April 1.  Before that, however, a $1 million roster bonus becomes due on the third day of the 2013 league year.

Thus, barring a restructuring, the 49ers will have to decide whether to keep Smith by the third day of the league year, which will come at some point in early March.

Though he’s still the starter (according to coach Jim Harbaugh), Smith isn’t starting.  Unless he’s the starting starter at the end of the season, the 49ers likely won’t pay that much to a non-starting starter in 2013.

Especially since the starting backup, Colin Kaepernick, will be earning only $590,000 next year, under a contract that can’t be renegotiated until 2014.

79 responses to “Niners have big decision to make on Alex Smith

  1. i’d stick with kaepernick since smith is not a superbowl qb. not to say that kaepernick is one, but he can improve from where he is right now. as for smith, he’s proven to choke a bust. If it wasn’t for that, niners would have gone to superbowl last year. he’s an average 1st overall.

  2. If I was Smith, I would be kicking myself for not going to Miami during the offseason. Kaepernick is Harbaughs guy-just wondering what the 49’er fans reaction is going to be if Colin has a meltdown in the playoffs. Those 2 TD’s SF scored on Brees interceptions Sunday saved the game for them.

  3. He’ll be taking a pay cut, and likely will stay as a backup QB. Nobody wanted him as a free agent this past off season, and he hasn’t done anything to make teams want hi this coming off season, so it’s a win-win for both Smith and the 49ers.

  4. This starting to remind me of when the saints jumped all over Aaron Brooks and got rid of dellomme. They were winning games with Jake but brooks got in and looked explosive for a few games. Didn’t turn out that well.

  5. 2difshoe says: This has Smith to Philly written all over it !

    What did Alex Smith ever do to deserve that?

  6. I don’t get why the media thinks it is a foregone conclusion that the niners will release Smith.

    With Smith playing next season- the 49ers have 9 million commited to the QB position. That is VERY reasonable.

    Kaep should play like a young Mike Vick- he should continue rushing the ball. That means he will be an injury risk. I think it is very unrealistic to think Kaep will play a full season injury free. So why not keep Smith? Especially when you think about how complicated the niner offense is. You can’t just go out and get a charlie batch to run this O.

  7. ‘Though he’s still the starter (according to coach Jim Harbaugh), Smith isn’t starting. Unless he’s the starting starter at the end of the season, the 49ers likely won’t pay that much to a non-starting starter in 2013.’

    That was funny.

  8. No they don’t, he’ll be cut as soon as the season is over because he’ll be a headache. He thinks he is a “starter” and he isn’t. He’ll probably join a low level team where he has a chance to start.

  9. Smith will become completely irrelevant in another team’s system. He thrived under a great coaching staff, perfect offense (for him) and suffocating defense. He is a marginally talented QB who’s hallmark is inconsistency and inability to sustain drives.

    He was AWFUL before Harbaugh arrived. Harbaugh got every ounce of ability out of him and that is the story.

    Great guy Alex Smith. The kind of guy you’d want in your family but on the brutal NFL field of battle – he isn’t the guy to take you to the promised land.

    Happy trails Alex. It was really a forgettable 8 years

  10. Harbaugh is trying to keep Smith engaged in case Kaep gets hurt or he freaks out under pressure. Smith knows his days are numbered at that price. the question is, is another team interested in paying him starter money. He might be able to get $4 mil, not sure anyone is interested in paying him $8 mil.

  11. @edge661, @fairbanksflame:

    No – he’s going to go wherever Greg Roman gets a HC Job, assuming he doesn’t take the Carolina job. Roman will probably be the hottest HC candidate, other than the annual Gruden/Cowher watch.

    KC or Philly would be ideal fits for the two.

  12. He’s still a mystery to how good he actually is. How good is he without one of the leagues best defenses? Or how good could be be if the coaching staff would quit preaching him to be a game manager and actually let him fling it around.

  13. While Smith hasn’t really done anything wrong or played poorly lately, Colin undeniably has much greater potential. He throws a better deep ball, has better ability to escape the rush and he’s a better runner. SF will be tough to beat the rest of the way, very tough.

  14. Jim Harbaugh is a dynamic coach with a winning team and lots of depth on the roster.

    Seems like he can afford to be a straight talker and just say something like “I’d rather not reveal our starter at this time for any competitive edge it may give us. Next question, please.”

    That would be better than the contorted things he’s currently saying. But, then again, let Harbaugh be Harbaugh.

  15. No way smith goes to Arizona the niners own his rights he is not a free agent. So unless Arizona out bids everyone by a large margin. The niners will not trade him in division. Plus don’t think just cause he has a million dollars roster bonus by the third day means he will be released. Cause if the niners can’t get it worked out a trade they will pay it cause they know what kind of high draft picks they can get if kolb can bring in 2 second rounders smith can bring more. So not gonna happen card fans.

  16. Smith to Pittsburgh to backup Ben. He’d be the perfect guy to plug into that role in the dink and dunk of Haley’s offense if/when Ben goes down with an injury. None of this nonsense of the Leftwich/Batch combination again.

  17. SF should keep both if financially possible. The way Kaep plays and the rate these QBs are getting injured, it would be nice to have a little insurance. I don’t think Alex will have as much success elsewhere anyway. Unless of course someone were to offer a second rounder…

  18. Both QBs should stay on the roster no questions asked until one of them can be traded. That’s the decision they already made when they signed the last contract with Alex Smith, and the team needs to stand by that decision or fire the guy that made the decision if that’s not the right thing so that they can eliminate similar foolish mistakes in the future. My guess is they stand by their decision and play the hand out now that reinforces their belief that they made a brilliant decision with the last Smith contract.

    So whoever they can trade first for the best value is the guy that needs to go. You can’t maximize the team’s potential by carrying 2 franchise QBs unless you are going to play them nearly equally. Put the bench assets to work and get them on the field in another format already!

  19. It’s sad that now that smith played well last yr and this yr after all those different offensive coordinators he had 7 in 7 yrs

    They wanna put him on the bench When he sucked they kept him even with the money that was due to him

    Just trade him after season or release him

    Best team for him is Arizona only cuz of his age and they can actually make playoffs n the def is better then most

  20. The team requires two QB’s. who can lead the team. The time is now for the 49’ers. The cost of both men can be absorbed for a year.

  21. It sucks for a guy to lose his job even though he has completed 25 of his last 27 passes, but Kaepernick just brings a whole new dimension to that offense and he has so much more upside. You have to stick with him.

  22. Cutting Smith is just about automatic. Since Kap’s salary is so low until 2014, it will give the 49ers the chance to resign some of their bigger name guys to front loaded deals before they have to worry about potentially signing Kap to a franchise QB salary.

    The only tough decision on a Smith is going to be on Justin Smith who’s contract expires when he turns 34.

  23. I could totally see him traded to AZ. Just because they’re in the division won’t stop them from trading him there, so long as the deal is tempting enough. Need proof? Just look at McNabb’s trade from Philly to Washington.

  24. true9erfan66 says:
    Nov 27, 2012 2:41 PM
    … if kolb can bring in 2 second rounders smith can bring more.
    ——-
    You are completely nuts if you think a team will give up more than 2 2nd round picks for Alex Smith. He is a middle-aged QB with limited upside who has been below-average for most of his career. I’d offer one 3rd-4th round pick. Nothing more.

  25. true9erfan66 says:
    Nov 27, 2012 2:41 PM
    No way smith goes to Arizona the niners own his rights he is not a free agent. So unless Arizona out bids everyone by a large margin. The niners will not trade him in division. Plus don’t think just cause he has a million dollars roster bonus by the third day means he will be released. Cause if the niners can’t get it worked out a trade they will pay it cause they know what kind of high draft picks they can get if kolb can bring in 2 second rounders smith can bring more. So not gonna happen card fans.

    —————————————————————–

    They aren’t going to trade him, they are going to cut him.

    It is funny how when Smith was starting and the team was losing, he was the problem. The whole, he can’t lead them back from a deficit and he can’t take the team on his back to win. Now that he’s been benched everyone in talking about the raw deal.

    Time for him to move on from the 9ers and give the Jets, Jaguars, Cardinals, Browns, Bills, and Chiefs a chance to pay him too much. It is the perfect time for him, because there isn’t a great class of QBs in the draft and there aren’t going to be a ton of starting quality QBs in free agency.

  26. Alex Smith is a glorified game manager. He has no long ball, and his mental attributes aren’t any more than your average C or maybe B level game manager. Kaepernick’s ceiling is much higher.

    So for 8 mil do you go with the guy who finally looked a tiny bit more than average when he was given a stacked team in every regard? Even though you know he’s not great?

    Or for half a mil do you go with the guy who clearly and obvious looks like a better passer, physically AND mentally? And use that 8 mil to further improve and already stacked team?

    This decision makes itself. As a fan of a team other than San Fran I hope they get stubborn and keep Smith.

  27. Smith’s contract was written to allow the team to part ways next year. Alex did everything right. He will be a free agent when the Niners do not pick up his option. Arizona is where he will go. Likely Greg Roman will be the Head Coach. AZ already has a good Defense and a great receiver in Fitzgerald. If they pick up an offensive line and Alex they will quickly become a very good team.

  28. Alex made a poor decision to re-sign with 49ers…49ers wanted Peyton and the writing was on the wall then, but he had no guts and desperately went back…he should’ve signed with miami and he wouldn’t be in this mess he’s in now losing his job over a concussion and now his coach has to decide who will lead the team…that’s a cold hard slap in the face to alex smith at this time of season.

  29. Steeley McBeam says:
    Nov 27, 2012 2:06 PM
    How can the 9ers have so much talent, yet so much money left to spend?

    ————————

    It’s called drafting well.

  30. The only way Alex Smith will succeed anywhere else is if he goes where Greg Roman becomes the HC, and the odds of Greg Roman becoming a HC next year are actually really good since we’re projecting like eight head coaches to be fired soon.

  31. Kaepernick will get hurt and Smith will be right back in soon enough. Just wait. After all, isn’t that how Kaepernick got the job in the first place?

  32. jimbo75025 says:

    just wondering what the 49′er fans reaction is going to be if Colin has a meltdown in the playoffs. Those 2 TD’s SF scored on Brees interceptions Sunday saved the game for them.

    – – – – – – – – – –

    This 49er fan has already been thinking about that. Kaep’s basically a rookie, and he’s going to make some major mistakes pretty soon here. And other than the Pats, they’re not facing very tough competition until the playoffs. So that’s when he’s going to melt down.

    I was the first to throw Alex Smith under the bus the first few years of his very mediocre career. But he’s been fantastic since last year. The numbers prove it…he’s no longer a game manager. He’s one of the best QB’s in the league, and the 49ers are stupid to replace him at this point.

  33. jeffa43 says:
    Nov 27, 2012 3:59 PM

    Kaepernick = Wally Pipp

    ————————-

    I think you have that analogy backwards.

  34. Nevis says:

    It’s called drafting well.

    ——————-

    Yea cause Justin Smith, Carlos Rodgers, Donte Whitner, Ahmad Brooks, Mario Manningham, Ted Ginn, Randy Moss, etc, etc, were all such great draft picks of the 49ers.

    I wont even comment on Alex Smith or Michael Crabtree…

  35. Not a 49er fan, but I sure hope this works for Harbaugh. Alex Smith took this team to the NFC championship game last year, and led an impressive comeback against the Saints in the process.

    Kaepernick has played two games to this point. Do the names Matt Robinson, Scott Mitchell, and Rob Johnson ring a bell? Or how about Randall Cunningham circa 1998, when he had that one spectacular season, the Vikings sent Brad Johnson packing, and Cunningham ends up getting benched six games into a five year $28 million contract.

    Let’s see how Kaepernick does the rest of the season. If he continues his solid play, no question Smith is gone. But all this hype for two games? Careful everyone. Ryan Leaf also won his first two games.

  36. phelbin says:
    The numbers prove it…he’s no longer a game manager. He’s one of the best QB’s in the league, and the 49ers are stupid to replace him at this point.

    ___

    Sorry but numbers can lie and they do here. If you really think Alex Smith is one of the best QBs in the league, you can’t accurately judge passers at all visually. He’s still the same dink and dunk game manager he’s always been, just now he’s got a line to give him more time to hit a few more passes, great receivers to catch, a defense to get him the ball back and/or good field position, and a coach who can tailor a game to his talents. He’s got an average QBs wet dream surrounding him. But pound for pound he’s still average. Every member of the 49ers chose Kaep to start, not Alex. I guess they didn’t go over the numbers with a magnifying glass, like the experts of the internet sports fan generation. *rolls eyes*

  37. Alex Smith is Rex Grossman (Chicago variety) but without the confidence. Everyone thinks he had a great year last year but he barely broke 3,000 yards in a year a few, true elite QBs were breaking 5,000. They were ranked near the very bottom in red zone success to boot.

    The whole reason his INTs were down and his completion rate was good was because he did not pass it long, or even intermediate for that matter of fact, distances. He was afraid to.

    Kaeps is rough but he is showing a possibility of much higher upside. Alex’s upside has peaked and it is just not good enough. He will not be traded either but just dropped and will not likely start anywhere. Even the Dolphins rejected him last year when he was a free agent. We were 31st in pass attempts this year with Alex Smith. Teams in the league know what he really is.

    Kaepernick reminds me a little of RG3 in skill set. I hope he pans out because a QB is the last piece this team needs. I think the WRs are even a solid squad but under Smith, they looked mediocre.

  38. No way smith goes to Arizona the niners own his rights he is not a free agent.

    ————————

    You missed the point of the article. They will have to cut him because they aren’t paying a guy $8 mil to ride the bench. This is not a Matt cassel, Matt Schaub or Kevin kolb situation where a trade can be made based on potential. Everyone knows exactly what they will get if smith is their starting qb. It’s very efficient but he’s already reached his ceiling. No one is going to trade for that when no one wanted it last year when he was in free agency. They’ll have to cut him loose and he’ll take less to lead a team through some rebuilding.

  39. I’m thinking Greg Roman becomes head coach in San Diego, trades Philip Rivers, and signs Alex Smith.

    Roman would have some similar pieces to work with in SD and would definitely change the culture down there.

    As a 49ers fan, I hope this isn’t the case and Roman sticks around but I fear not.

  40. I am still calling Greg Roman, Alex Smith, and Delanie Walker all to AZ next year… if Bidwill is smart that is. It would be a perfect spot. Decent albeit injury prone backs are in place.. elite receivers.. solid D. Roman would give them an inside track on beating the division front runner.. They won’t be keeping Alex jr. (Kolb) at $12M when they can have the actual thing for around $8M and he is a hell of a lot more durable. Delanie would provide him a dynamic familiar target. I think whiz is a good coach but he really bungled the qb situation big time and I don’t believe he is gonna survive that.

  41. Alex smith have a 104 qb rating and he’s now getting his place taken by a fourth round pick that funny he should go somewhere and prove himself

  42. I am seeing some comments from people thinking the niners would cut Smith and he would probably go to Arizona.

    If I am the niners- that is EXACTLY why I wouldn’t release Smith. I think Kaepernick is a better QB than Smith- but I also know Smith is a top 10 QB. Smith on Arizona makes Arizona a dangerous team. Better for the niners to pay 8 million for that not to happen. And again, Kaep is not going to hold up for the whole season- the niners need a good backup

  43. We must remember that until Alex thoroughly understands the system he’s in, he sucks. Urban Meyer, his college coach, made that observation, and Alex proved him right the first couple of seasons after he was drafted. If he goes to a new system, and no other in the NFL is like Harbaugh’s, he’s got a long learnin’ curve. Fans will not be patient as we Niner fans were for years. Alex, you better stayin’ put.

  44. Its so funny to read all these posts about Greg Roman and Smith needed to go to the team that Roman ends up coaching for. LMAO. Do any of you honestly think Greg Roman given the option will WANT Alex as his QB?!? I mean if he becomes a HC he needs to succeed, everything is on him, you think he will tether his career to captain checkdown? NOPE.

    Wherever Roman ends up he will NOT bring Smith with him. FACT.

  45. Some of you people don’t have the first idea as to what a good qb is, obviously.

    Smith is average at best. Seriously. His numbers are a mirage. He has less than 5 300 yard games in 7.5 years. His average per play is under 8 yards. He is not accurate over 12 yards.

    Get real.

    Also for those of you think the niners are rich? They are less than 500k under the cap. Next year it’s time for serious trimming.

  46. As much I Love Alex Smith being the starter for the San Francisco 49ers, I’m jus throw out there that Colin Kaepernick is a product of Jim Harbaugh. If it wasn’t for Coach Harbaugh drafting Kaep, then we would see him in NYJ jersey.

    I’d still Love to Alex Smith start. He’s been through so much not to start.

  47. Also for those of you think the niners are rich? They are less than 500k under the cap. Next year it’s time for serious trimming.

    —————————–

    A complete misrepresentation. The 49ers front loaded the Patrick Willis extension and will be around 30 million under the cap assuming Alex Smith’s salary isn’t there and before Walker and Goldson resigning.

    Paraage Marathe is one of the best in the business at this and sets the 49ers up very nicely with regards to keeping the team together.

    On a different note, if Delanie Walker isn’t extended, expect a 49ers trade up for TE Zach Ertz. (Coby Fleener wasn’t as talented and wasn’t the right timing for Harbaugh’s TE want.)

  48. I see Smith ending up in KC or buffalo next season. Would probably help the 49ers if they could redo his deal before the trade to make him more appealing. He could reel in a 3rd round pick given his age and ceiling.

  49. wow, wow, people like newtons2ndlaw saying that it is a FACT that Greg Roman would not want Alex Smith as his starter with his new team. What on earth makes you say a stupid thing like that. You dont know that

    Why should he not? If Greg Roman takes a HC job from lets say, AZ or Kansas, it would make perfect sense to bring Alex Smith with him. He knows the system, he and Roman spent most late nights last year studying that very complicated system. Getting a QB that knows it makes alot of things easier. Thats what Holmgren did when he left Green Bay. He brought Hasselbeck with him to Seattle and that worked out pretty well.

    At this time, Alex Smith is the best non-starter in the NFL(in my opinion)

  50. shoobiedoobin says:Sorry but numbers can lie and they do here. If you really think Alex Smith is one of the best QBs in the league, you can’t accurately judge passers at all visually. He’s still the same dink and dunk game manager he’s always been, just now he’s got a line to give him more time to hit a few more passes, great receivers to catch, a defense to get him the ball back and/or good field position, and a coach who can tailor a game to his talents. He’s got an average QBs wet dream surrounding him. But pound for pound he’s still average. Every member of the 49ers chose Kaep to start, not Alex. I guess they didn’t go over the numbers with a magnifying glass, like the experts of the internet sports fan generation. *rolls eyes*

    well said, i couldn’t have said it better. as far as next year goes… alex smith is gone. tolzien will be our 2nd string qb. we’ll use alex ‘s 8 million to sign other players.

  51. It amazes me people think Smith is a top 10 QB. He is average at best.

    Many think Kyle Williams lost that game last year, and although it was the nail in the coffin, that is nto the reason they lost. The Giants were giving us the game but Smith could not do anything on offense. It was 3 and out, 3 and out, repeat. He threw ONE completed pass to a WR the whole game. Should never have been in that situation to begin with.

    The offense is night and day under Kaep and it actually looks like we have WRs now.

    Smith is either a very good backup QB option or a starter on a bad team that will not end up being good.

  52. I see Smith leaving the 49ers….I would to after what low handed Harbaugh did…..Kapernick getting hurt and out for the season…..49ers in big do do….Smith will stay around long enough to collect his ring…..you go Alex…..payback is fun huh!

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