Oddsmaker’s 2014 win totals reflect skepticism about Cardinals, Chiefs, Panthers

Posted by PlexusGroupe on March 10, 2014, 3:16 PM EDT
AP

The Cardinals, Chiefs and Panthers all won double-digit games in 2013. The Cards were competitive in the NFL’s toughest division, and the Panthers and Chiefs each made the postseason.

However, Nevada oddsmaker CG Technology appears willing to risk that those clubs will not play nearly as well in 2014 as they did a season ago.

CG (formerly Cantor Gaming) released its regular-season win total props last week – wagers where bettors can choose whether a team will go OVER or UNDER a certain number of victories. And of the 32 NFL teams listed at CG, only the Cardinals, Chiefs and Panthers had regular-season win totals at least three games lower than their number of 2013 regular-season wins.

The Panthers, who were 12-4 in 2013, have a 2014 win total of 8.5 at the CG sports books. The Chiefs (11-5 last season) check in at eight wins at the CG books.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, have a 2014 win total of just seven after finishing 10-6 in 2013. In short, those who want to take the Cardinals to go OVER the CG win total just have to hope for an 8-8 record.

That seems like a low bar for Arizona to clear.

Right?

Well, the Cardinals do have to face the 49ers and Seahawks twice next season, and they were a combined 1-3 against the NFC West’s best a season ago. What’s more, the Cardinals merely split a pair of games against the Rams, giving Arizona a 2-4 division record. If the Cardinals can’t improve on that record, they would have to go at least 6-4 in their non-division slate to reach .500.

It’s important to note that win total props are a reflection of how oddsmakers believe a team will be viewed by the betting public. While the props take into account oddsmaker expectations for the clubs, the bets are tailored to reflect expectations of how bettors will wager upon these teams.

One example: the Texans, who were 2-14 last season, have a win total of 8.5.

Let’s suppose the Texans had a win total of, say, 4.5. Well, you would probably have to get in line to back Houston at that price — and it probably wouldn’t be on the board for long.

Here are CG’s 2014 win totals for each NFL team:

49ers, Broncos, Seahawks: 11 wins

Packers, Patriots: 10 wins.

Saints: 9.5 wins.

Bengals, Colts, Steelers: 9 wins.

Bears, Eagles, Panthers, Ravens, Texans: 8.5 wins

Chargers, Chiefs, Cowboys, Falcons, Lions: 8 wins

Dolphins: 7.5 wins

Cardinals, Giants, Redskins: 7 wins

Bills, Browns, Buccaneers, Jets, Rams, Titans, Vikings: 6.5 wins.

Raiders: 5 wins.

Jaguars: 4.5 wins.

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47 responses to “Oddsmaker’s 2014 win totals reflect skepticism about Cardinals, Chiefs, Panthers”

  1. I don’t see the Steelers squeaking out nine wins anytime soon.

    Their defense is not what it used to be and they still have Bottom Third Ben as quarterback and Honest Mike “Twelfth Man” Tomlin as head coach.

    That is not a recipe for success.

  2. In light of all the changes in Detroit, and a 7-9 team losing it’s last three games by 2, 3 and 1 points, I’m heading to Vegas to take the over of 8 wins.

  4. Not all that surprising for the Panthers. Carolina took advantage of a fairly unique situation last year — the Bucs were floundering in a pool of MRSA and Schianoism, and the Falcons collapsed early and never recovered. Both of those teams will be improved next year, and the Saints are the Saints. Meanwhile, the Panthers need two starting offensive tackles, two starting cornerbacks, at least one starting safety, and all the wide receivers they can get.

    At least they’ve got plenty of cap room! Oh, wait…

  5. The Vikings win total should be 11 at least,

    One of the most dominant offenses in the NFL (once we draft out franchise QB)

    And a coach who’s never had a defense not ranked in the top 5.

    We have the recipe for success.

    I’m putting all my money on the Vikings Vegas odds this year.

  9. The oddsmakers have Miami at 7.5 and the Bills and Jets at 6.5….yet they only give NE a total of 10???

    NE has been over 10 wins in 9 of the last 11 years. The other 2 years the had 10.

    No way they don’t finish with at least 11 wins considering the crappy division they play on.

    Sure bet.

  15. There’s too much “last year” in some of those picks, and not enough in others. I think the Cardinals will do very well this year, assuming Palmer stays healthy. I don’t see Pittsburgh going so high up, unless they have a heck of a draft. Face it, Ben just isn’t getting any younger and neither are any others on the team. Manning’s big “late life” season had more to do with the strength of the Broncos’ schedule than anything.

    With Cleveland becoming resurgent, and the Jaguars showing promise, (along with the Bucs), and with Coughlin and Ryan, facing serious pressure, things will be vastly different in the league. It remains to be seen if Andy, can produce the same kind of explosiveness out of the Chiefs again, and will the Falcons and Texans take nosedives again? I doubt it.

    But I don’t see the Cards suddenly imploding and becoming so-so, as CG seems to believe.

  17. I completely agree with the oddsmaker. This resurgence of Alex Smith isn’t going to last. And Carson Palmer isn’t that good, had one sort of good year after 3 bad ones. And the Panthers have to fight against a division where the Bucs and Falcons will be a lot better this year.

    The Texans, Ravens, Giants, and Falcons are good examples of teams that were good in 2012 that weren’t good in 2013. There’s always teams that suck that you wouldn’t expect to.

  19. Seems weird to have the odds before Free agency and the draft.. would make more sense after.

  20. If this ends up being accurate, it looks like we are going to have some conference champs with very low win totals. On the upside it could create a very nice competition for wild card spots. Either way Goodell says he wins.

  22. i like my Texans, but we’re in rebuilding mode. you don’t replace every member of your coaching staff and bring in a rookie qb and expect to be any good. if the Texans get to 7 wins, it will have been a great year.

  25. Giants over 7 seems like a good bet. They were 7-3 in the final 10 games, and should improve in the offseason.

  29. there’s a lot of teams with .5 wins figured in that. I’ll take the vegas bet that there won’t be that many ties next year. lol

  30. Pats had >10 wins the year Brady was hurt. No reason to think the other AFC East teams are gonna be any better, or the Pats will have worse luck w/injuries next year

  31. The Patriots are 1 hit away from being irrelevant. I can’t believe the praise their fans give them, despite not spending on Offense and having a terrible secondary.

  33. I really like the Colts over 9 wins, they may lose only once in the division (at Houston) and play the NFC East, not an overly difficult schedule.

  36. The Patriots went to the AFC champiobship game and now during the off season they are going to get the best Tight End (Gronk), Nosetackle(Vince), and Linebacker(Mayo). Another Perfect season coming!

  38. Texans over rated again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! you can’t listen to McNair he doesn’t know the difference between the Texans and a horse called Big Brown… another loser

  39. this is completely stupid, for just about every team. according to this garbage, every team is worse this year.

    and the jets won 8 games last year with a rookie QB, a lousy cap situation and losing some of our best free agents. This year the kid will have a year experience, or his back up will have more, they have tones of cash for FA’s and they should have about 10-12 picks. Yea, we’re definitely gonna be worse this year…bet on it

  40. Take the under on all NFC West & AFC West teams, those two are going to beat the crap out of each other all season long. And in the end, only the Div Champs will make the playoffs.

  42. Why are the vikings way up there at 6.5 wins?

    There is not a “sure” win on the schedule!

    They play the Saints, the Patriots, Panthers, Rams, Falcons, Dolphins, where they have no chances at all, plus 6 divisional games.

    They have 4 chances to get a win:
    at Tampa Bay
    at Buffalo
    home against the Jets and
    home against the Redskins.

    The vikings are a team that lost to the Browns last season. Their over/under should be 3 wins.

    Betting the under is easy money!!

  44. I need to scramble some cash and place that bet on the Cardinals. Likely a big upgrade at LT from the worst ranked LT last year, 1st round pick J. Cooper back at LG, a likely fix at SS to their problem defending TEs, where half the scoring against them took place…and losing no one of consequence save maybe Dansby. And all with one years experience with Arians new O and D systems. They will be good. They barely lost the games they did lose in the division last year, only blow out against them was the Saints.

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