How PFT’s power rankings stack up with Vegas Super Bowl odds


You may have seen that Dolphins coach Joe Philbin doesn’t agree with PFT placing his club next-to-last in our preseason power rankings.

“I don’t think he knows the guys in our locker room or the guys that come to work in this building every single day from top to bottom,” Philbin said of PFT putting the Dolphins 31st, according to the Miami Herald‘s Armando Salguero.

That Philbin took up for his team is to be respected. And ultimately, the Dolphins will get their shot to prove the ranking wrong. And isn’t that a beautiful thing about sport? Sometimes, the doubters get theirs, and even the doubters themselves have to tip their caps.

But back to the Dolphins’ ranking. The whole deal got us thinking: how does Miami’s rating compare to its odds to win Super Bowl 49?

First, here’s a primer on how the odds are determined.

The opening odds are set by various Nevada sports books in the winter. From there, the betting public — any person with the cash on hand to make a minimum future-book bet of five bucks or so — goes to work. The odds move as the public places their bets.

At the Caesars Entertainment sportsbooks, the Dolphins were listed at 50-1 to win the Super Bowl as of the beginning of this week. From an odds standpoint, this places them in a tie for 25th among the 32 NFL clubs.

The Dolphins’ 50-1 price is the same one offered when the odds were first posted.

However, that’s not the story for every other club.

The following 18 clubs have lower Super Bowl odds than when betting began: the 49ers, Packers, Saints, Eagles, Colts, Bengals, Bears, Steelers, Ravens, Giants, Lions, Rams, Cowboys, Texans, Vikings, Jets, Browns and Raiders. In short, something happened to convince Caesars to cut the price, to make it a little less sweet of a deal for bettors.

By contrast, the Broncos, Cardinals, Chiefs, Falcons, Panthers, Buccaneers, Titans and Jaguars all have higher odds than when betting started.

The Jaguars, at 200-1, are the longest shot on the board at Caesars — and it’s not close. To wit: every other club has odds of 75-1 or lower.

Below are the Super Bowl odds at the Caesars Entertainment sportsbooks as of July 21 with PFT’s rating of each club in parentheses. The teams are ordered by their odds to win Super Bowl 49 at Caesars:

T-1) Seattle Seahawks: 5-1. (PFT rank: 1.) Opening odds: 5-1.

T-1) Denver Broncos: 5-1. (PFT rank: 3.) Opening odds: 4-1.

3) San Francisco 49ers: 5.5-1. (PFT rank: 2.) Opening odds: 6-1.

4) Green Bay Packers: 7-1. (PFT rank: 5.) Opening odds: 15-1.

5) New England Patriots: 8-1. (PFT rank: 4.) Opening odds: 8-1.

6) New Orleans Saints: 14-1. (PFT rank: 6.) Opening odds: 15-1.

7) Philadelphia Eagles: 15-1. (PFT rank: 13.) Opening odds: 30-1.

T-8) Indianapolis Colts: 18-1. (PFT rank: 8.) Opening odds: 30-1.

T-8) Cincinnati Bengals: 18-1. (PFT rank: 9.) Opening odds: 20-1.

T-8) Chicago Bears: 18-1. (PFT rank: 12.) Opening odds: 30-1.

11) Pittsburgh Steelers: 20-1. (PFT rank: 15.) Opening odds: 40-1.

T-12) Baltimore Ravens: 25-1. (PFT rank: 7.) Opening odds: 40-1.

T-12) New York Giants: 25-1. (PFT rank: 18.) Opening odds: 40-1.

T-12) Detroit Lions: 25-1. (PFT rank: 21.) Opening odds: 40-1.

15) St. Louis Rams: 28-1. (PFT rank: 20.) Opening odds: 40-1.

T-16) Dallas Cowboys: 30-1. (PFT rank: 24.) Opening odds: 35-1.

T-16) Houston Texans: 30-1. (PFT rank: 25.) Opening odds: 40-1.

T-18) Arizona Cardinals: 35-1. (PFT rank: 11.) Opening odds: 30-1.

T-18) Kansas City Chiefs: 35-1. (PFT rank: 17.) Opening odds: 30-1.

T-20) Carolina Panthers: 40-1. (PFT rank: 10.) Opening odds: 25-1.

T-20) Atlanta Falcons: 40-1. (PFT rank: 14.) Opening odds: 20-1.

T-20) San Diego Chargers: 40-1. (PFT rank: 16.) Opening odds: 40-1.

T-20) Washington Redskins: 40-1. (PFT rank: 23.) Opening odds: 40-1.

T-20) Minnesota Vikings: 40-1. (PFT rank: 27.) Opening odds: 75-1.

T-25) New York Jets: 50-1. (PFT rank: 19.) Opening odds: 75-1.

T-25) Cleveland Browns: 50-1. (PFT rank: 22.) Opening odds: 75-1.

T-25) Miami Dolphins: 50-1. (PFT rank: 31.) Opening odds: 50-1.

T-25) Oakland Raiders: 50-1. (PFT rank: 32.) Opening odds: 150-1.

29) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 60-1. (PFT rank: 26.) Opening odds: 50-1.

T-30) Buffalo Bills: 75-1. (PFT rank: 28.) Opening odds: 75-1.

T-30) Tennessee Titans: 75-1. (PFT rank: 30.) Opening odds: 50-1.

32) Jacksonville Jaguars: 200-1. (PFT rank: 29.) Opening odds: 150-1.

56 responses to “How PFT’s power rankings stack up with Vegas Super Bowl odds

  1. Setting odds can change based on where the money is going. Vegas helps minimize their risk that way so not sure this is a good way to measure PFT’s attempt to rank.

    I said Dolphins are at about 23 and I’m sticking with that.

  2. I can’t wait to put my $500 dollar bet for the Minnesota Vikings winning the Super Bowl at 40-1 odds.

    That will be a solid $20,000 dollars in my investment funds.

    Which will amount into $100,000 dollars after an “x’ amount of years.

    All because the Minnesota Vikings are a great team.

    I could make a career out of this.


  3. It’s that big bet that thepftpoet laid on the Vikings that so dramatically moved their odds.

    Say one thing for that delusional kid — he’s putting his money where his mouth is.


  4. thegreatgabbert says: Jul 25, 2014 1:17 PM

    LOL, the Jags up to 200-1 already. A homeless guy could find a fiver on the street and turn it into a three bedroom condo by the start of the season.


    So you’re thinking they will wind up at like 25,000:1? I mean they suck, but the plane would have to crash over the Atlantic Ocean for the odds to go that high.

  5. Unfortunately, odds of winning the Super Bowl and PFY power rankings are two completely different animals. The Dolphins odds of winning bowl are also based on the fact that NE plays in their division. Power rankings are supposed list top teams in order regardless of division. Putting Miami 31 – a team that beat NE, Cincy, Indy, Pitt& SD last year is obviously someone’s agenda item.

  6. So, I could put a minimum bet of $5 on every single team and spend a total of $160. If my Seattle Seahawks win then I lose money. If ANY team with odds greater than 32-1 wins the Superbowl, then I come out ahead with a net gain. And there are a few teams that are good enough to win a Superbowl with 40-1 odds or higher.

    Actually, I’m think I need to bet just $5 on the Jaguars to win it all. It’s only $5. And if that line holds at 200-1, then it’ll pay out at $1,000. Those are odds that I can live with!

  7. Proof that if you’re going to bet, do it early. Almost every team has had their odds cut since opening.

    Futures odds are terrible in Vegas. Teams like Oakland, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Buffalo are realistically about 1000-1 to win the Super Bowl.

  8. Funny how they still put the Jets above the Fins even, though they have the same odds, so that their ridiculous PFT rankings will still look somewhat respectable.

  9. The Bucs won’t make the super bowl this year, but they are ranked too low at 26. Just about every season, a solid new head coach takes over, revamps the roster & overachieve. These teams usually end up around 10-6. That’s the Bucs to me. Last year it was the Eagles. In ’06, it was the Saints.

  10. The difference is that fans of teams bet on those teams. For instance, Houston is easily one of the worst teams in the league, yet they rank in the middle for betting.

    You also have to factor in that some on the PFT staff are NE fans.

  11. Since these are odds to win the SB, which require winning playoff games, why aren’t the bengals like 1,000,000:1?

  12. thepftpoet says:
    Jul 25, 2014 1:20 PM
    I can’t wait to put my $500 dollar bet for the Minnesota Vikings winning the Super Bowl at 40-1 odds.

    Too bad the 360,000 shares of Packer stock sold to fans all over the world is no longer available.

    Two shares at $250.00 each would be a safer bet than yours.

  13. Nevermind, just researched it and oddsmakers arent expecting Dalton to finish the season as the starter. That makes sense.

  14. who on earth is using Cesar’s in Vegas in July to place a futures bet on the superbowl in 7 months?

    either pick a public sports book on the internet, or one of the sharp local books in vegas.
    and when you are breaking ties for superbowl odds interdivisionally (e.g., dolphins and jets both 50-1, or panthers and falcons both 40-1, you look at odds to win the division)

  15. The House doesn’t always win each Bet, but on the sum of intake they always Win. PFT has nothing at stake. I wish my Dolphins were better, but too many changes this year with the 2nd youngest club, so I will stick to 18-22 ranking. With some close games maybe a Wildcard. It will come down to Dolphins, Steelers, Jets or Ravens for it.

  16. thepftpoet says:Jul 25, 2014 1:20 PM

    I can’t wait to put my $500 dollar bet for the Minnesota Vikings winning the Super Bowl at 40-1 odds.

    That will be a solid $20,000 dollars in my investment funds.

    Which will amount into $100,000 dollars after an “x’ amount of years.

    All because the Minnesota Vikings are a great team.

    I could make a career out of this.


    STILL delusional. I wouldn’t count your fund b4 it matures. The Vikings have to make the playoffs. But you need a winning record to do that. Now every1 sing Time After Time by Cyndi Lauper for him. lol

  17. Fair spot for the Lions at 12 given their unpredictability in the past and lack of pass coverage. I’m curious how their offense will stack up against the league’s top tier defenses though (once the new coaching scheme takes shape). On paper their offense looks terrifying after picking up Golden Tate and Eric Ebron.

  18. A few thoughts on the comments:

    — Thought the comment on sports books moving odds to minimize risk was spot-on. I’d agree that Super Bowl odds aren’t an apples-to-apples comparison here. What I did want to do, however, was to rank all 32 clubs both ways (power rankings, odds) and see what we found.

    — The odds will move based on the amount of $ wagered. That has to be factored in to any odds discussion.

    — The Raiders usually get good future-book support.

    — The Jaguars haven’t had much wagered upon them in recent years, if I recall. Years back, I think they were 3-2 after 5 games and they were 300-1 to win the Super Bowl at one major Nevada casino.

    — This is just one set of odds. Caesars has a big Las Vegas Strip presence, though. Paris, Rio, Harrah’s, Flamingo are all Caesars properties. MGM, CG Technology, William Hill are other big players in Nevada.

    Thanks as always for reading and for weighing in.

    — MW

  19. The Minnie Tikes shouldn’t be included in this list, unless you are crediting their parent club that won it all last year. Go Minnie!

  20. The wood pakkkkkerr ain’t going anywhere. They’ll be one and done even if they made the playoff. Pepper will get run over by my mother cuz he can’t stop no body. LOL!

  21. Another piece if evidence that PFT loves the Jets
    Ranked them 6 points higher than Vegas did 25->19.
    And that they hate the Dolphins (as most Jets fans do)
    By ranking them 6 points lowerc than Vegas 25->31.

    Given the Pouncey situation and rebut line, I’d say 25 is accurate until people over achieve.

  22. what does las vegas know…they must not have read where PFT said 32…tied for 25th lol

    Go Raiders!

  23. pooflingingmonkey says:
    Jul 25, 2014 3:29 PM
    What is the over/under on Raider wins? Two?
    – – – – – — – – – – – – – –

    Team 2014 win total 2013 wins
    Broncos 11 (over -115) 13
    49ers 11 (over +100) 12
    Seahawks 11(over -110) 13
    Packers 10 (over -105) 8
    Patriots 10 (over -125) 12
    Saints 9.5 (over -105) 11
    Bengals 9 (over -115) 11
    Colts 9 (over -115) 11
    Steelers 9 (over -110) 8
    Bears 8.5 (over -105) 8
    Eagles 8.5 (over -125) 10
    Panthers 8.5 (over -120) 12
    Ravens 8.5 (over -110) 8
    Texans 8.5 (over -110) 2
    Chargers 8 (over -120) 9
    Chiefs 8 (over -125) 11
    Cowboys 8 (over -120) 8
    Falcons 8 (over -120) 4
    Lions 8 (over -115) 7
    Dolphins 7.5 (-over -125) 8
    Cardinals 7 (over -120) 10
    Giants 7 (over -110) 7
    Redskins 7 (over -110) 3
    Bills 6.5 (over -110) 6
    Browns 6.5 (over -105) 4
    Buccaneers 6.5 (over -130) 4
    Jets 6.5 (over -120) 8
    Rams 6.5 (over -120) 7
    Titans 6.5 (over -110) 7
    Vikings 6.5 (over -110) 5
    Raiders 5 (over +110) 4
    Jaguars 4.5 (over +100) 4

  24. remember vegas odds are to even betting

    there are a lot of incredible stupid people out there….. just look at Cowboys odds…. should prob be 1000 to 1 but is 35 to 1 and shorter than many better teams…

  25. Hey PFT, how did teams finish last year in respect to your 2013 preview? Come on, analyze it for us, look back.

  26. thepftpoet says: Jul 25, 2014 1:20 PM

    I can’t wait to put my $500 dollar bet for the Minnesota Vikings winning the Super Bowl at 40-1 odds.
    There’s no way your mom is giving you $500 to bet on the Vikings.

  27. Rams 28-1 odds at #15. Finally some respect somewhat. Tampa Bay below Raiders???
    Honestly think TBay under rated. Arz also under Houston???
    Nine of 15 teams are NFC. 4 of 18 from the almighty NFC West.
    Cant wait.
    Bout 6 more wks :)))

  28. Certain people spend an awful lot of energy trolling the Bengals. Insecurity or a Freudian envy?

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to leave a comment. Not a member? Register now!