PFT’s Week Three picks

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Plenty of people connected to the NFL would prefer that the last week didn’t happen.  I’m part of that group, for entirely different reasons.

When it came to predicting the outcomes of games in Week Two, I had the worst showing I’ve ever had, in the time I’ve been picking games at PFT.  As it all disintegrated, I used language even more offensive than whatever Colin Kaepernick supposedly said on Sunday night.

Ultimately, I got five right and 11 wrong.  Eleven wrong.

MDS didn’t do much better, but his 8-8 showing puts him in the lead by three games, with a 17-15 mark.  I’m at 14-18 through two weeks.  Which is quite lame.

This week, we disagree on four games.  Which means I’ll likely be seven games behind MDS by next week.

Buccaneers at Falcons

MDS’s take: If the Bucs couldn’t beat teams quarterbacked by Derek Anderson and Austin Davis at home, they’re not going to beat a team quarterbacked by Matt Ryan on the road.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 31, Buccaneers 17.

Florio’s take:  The Falcons are better than I thought they’d be.  The Bucs aren’t.  While it’s unclear what Atlanta will do on the road in the division, holding serve at home against the Saints means they’ll hold serve against the Buccaneers.

Florio’s pick:  Falcons 27, Buccaneers 17.

Chargers at Bills

MDS’s take: Are the Bills for real? That may be the toughest question to answer after the first two weeks of the season. They sure look like a much better team than any of us expected heading into 2014. I think they’re going to keep it going against a Chargers team that will have a tough time overcoming a tough game and a long road trip.

MDS’s pick: Bills 21, Chargers 20.

Florio’s take:  The Bills are off to a great start.  And we’ve seen how this movie ends.  While I’m not ready to assume a Western New York renaissance isn’t happening, the Chargers are even better than they were when they made the playoffs a year ago.

Florio’s pick:  Chargers 30, Bills 21.

Washington at Eagles

MDS’s take: We’ll all have our eyes on Kirk Cousins getting the start and potentially playing well enough over the next few weeks to keep the job even after Robert Griffin III is ready to go. But I’m more interested in watching Nick Foles, who has made a lot of mental mistakes this year, the kind of mistakes he wasn’t making last year. Fortunately for the Eagles, they’ve managed to go 2-0 without Foles even playing very well. I think they should improve to 3-0 and Foles should have a better game than he’s played so far.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 24, Washington 12.

Florio’s take:  DeSean Jackson returns home to see that the Eagles really are even better without him.

Florio’s pick:  Eagles 30, Washington 17.

Texans at Giants

MDS’s take: The Giants are just not a good football team right now, and although Tom Coughlin has turned his team around after bad starts before, I don’t see it happening any time soon. Bill O’Brien has the Texans playing efficient and mistake-free offensive football and they’ll put plenty of points on the board against the Giants.

MDS’s pick: Texans 31, Giants 14.

Florio’s take:  And here’s where we find out the Giants aren’t quite as bad as perceived, and that the Texans aren’t quite as good.

Florio’s pick:  Giants 24, Texans 17.

Vikings at Saints

MDS’s take: The Saints are 0-2, but they’ll roll on Sunday over a Vikings team that could be ready to go into a deep dive.

MDS’s pick: Saints 34, Vikings 23.

Florio’s take:  Even without Adrian Peterson playing, the Saints will have a hard time slowing down the Vikings’ offense.  Not because the Vikings’ offense is great, but because the Saints’ defense isn’t.  Still, advantage home team.

Florio’s pick:  Saints 31, Vikings 21.

Cowboys at Rams

MDS’s take: The 1-1 Cowboys are one-eighth of the way to their fourth straight 8-8 finish, and I think what we’re going to see from them this year is more or less what we’ve seen through two games: They’ll beat bad teams like the Titans and lose to good teams like the 49ers. This week it’s the Rams, a bad team, so they’ll win.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 28, Rams 13.

Florio’s take:  The next time anyone talks about expanding the NFL, point out that this game could feature a quarterback showdown of Brandon Weeden and Austin Davis.  Advantage:  No one.

Florio’s pick:  Cowboys 14, Rams 13.

Titans at Bengals

MDS’s take: I’m really liking what I’m seeing of the Bengals, on both sides of the ball: Their defense is one of the most talented in football and the offensive line is giving Andy Dalton plenty of time to pass, which means he’s not being pressured into the mistakes that have plagued him in the past. Cincinnati might be the best team in the AFC.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 30, Titans 10.

Florio’s take:  Even without a full stadium to cheer them on, the Bengals should be able to roll over the Titans.  Maybe eventually the stadium will be full.

Florio’s pick:  Bengals 31, Titans 20.

Ravens at Browns

MDS’s take: I went back and forth on this one. I like the direction the Browns are heading in, but I also think the Ravens, who looked so good last Thursday and have a long work week with extra time to prepare, are a better team from top to bottom. Go with the Ravens in a close, low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 16, Browns 13.

Florio’s take:  Yes, the Browns pulled off a thrilling win over the Saints.  But the New Orleans defense currently is flawed, deeply.  The Baltimore defense isn’t.

Florio’s pick:  Ravens 17, Browns 13.

Packers at Lions

MDS’s take: The Lions are so thin at cornerback that Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson should have a field day. On the other hand, the Lions’ passing game has so many weapons that I’m not sure how long the Packers’ defense can slow them down. Go with the Lions in a close, high-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Lions 31, Packers 30.

Florio’s take:  A shootout could be looming in the Lions’ den, with both teams having high-powered offense and neither having a defense that can impose its will.  Maybe they should play on a 50-yard field.

Florio’s pick:  Packers 45, Lions 41.

Colts at Jaguars

MDS’s take: With both teams at 0-2, the loser of this game will be in such a deep hole (or, as Roddy White would say, a deep whole) that any hope of winning the AFC South would be just about over. Before the season some saw the Jaguars as potential playoff teams, but I think the Jaguars have a longer rebuilding job than that.

MDS’s pick: Colts 24, Jaguars 17.

Florio’s take:  It’s a must-win game for the Colts, who are playing a team that, based on its current talent level, must lose.

Florio’s pick:  Colts 30, Jaguars 23.

Raiders at Patriots

MDS’s take: Charles Woodson said it best: The Raiders suck. This is the easiest game of the week to pick.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 34, Raiders 20.

Florio’s take:  Remember that time when the Raiders were really good and the Patriots stunk?  Neither do I.

Florio’s pick:  Patriots 48, Raiders 17.

49ers at Cardinals

MDS’s take: I went back and forth on this one. The Cardinals have looked better than most people thought, and the 49ers are coming off a major meltdown against the Bears. Does that mean there’s a new pecking order in the NFC West? I don’t think so. Uncertainty at the quarterback position in Arizona is a major problem, and Colin Kaepernick won’t throw three interceptions again.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 24, Cardinals 13.

Florio’s take:  The jury remains out on whether Colin Kaepernick is a franchise quarterback.  The verdict is in on whether the Cardinals can find a way to win, no matter who is injured or suspended or otherwise not available.

Florio’s pick:  Cardinals 20, 49ers 17.

Broncos at Seahawks

MDS’s take: Super Bowl XLVIII I/II (that’s Super Bowl forty-eight and one-half for those of you who don’t speak Latin) will be a closer game than the ugly blowout we saw in February, but the ultimate result will be the same: The great defense will beat the great offense.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 20, Broncos 17.

Florio’s take:  At a neutral site in early February, the Seahawks won by 35.  At CenturyLink Field with a sudden sense of urgency following last week’s loss in San Diego, this one could be uglier.  But if I pick a margin larger than 35, I could get the Phil Simms treatment in Denver.

Florio’s pick:  Seahawks 34, Broncos 24.

Chiefs at Dolphins

MDS’s take: This is shaping up to be a long, tough season for the Chiefs. After the breakout year of 2013, the Chiefs are off to a bad start, they’re plagued by injuries, and they’re about to lose their third in a row.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 27, Chiefs 20.

Florio’s take:  They once played the longest game in NFL history.  This one can’t end soon enough for the road team.

Florio’s pick:  Dolphins 27, Chiefs 14.

Steelers at Panthers

MDS’s take: Kudos to the Panthers’ defense for the way it played on Sunday: Despite losing its best pass rusher, Greg Hardy, for off-field reasons on gameday morning, Carolina did a good job of slowing down a good Detroit passing attack. This Carolina team is better than most people realized.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 24, Steelers 13.

Florio’s take:  The Panthers have longer aspired to be like the Steelers.  Maybe the Panthers have gotten there.  The Steelers are trying to find their way back to that.  Maybe on Sunday night they should take a long look at the team on the other side of the field.

Florio’s pick:  Panthers 20, Steelers 12.

Bears at Jets

MDS’s take: The Jets’ offense is a lot better than I expected it to be, and the Bears’ defense has some holes. But the Bears have perhaps the best pair of receivers in the NFL in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, and I just don’t think the Jets have the cornerbacks to keep up.

MDS’s pick: Bears 28, Jets 27.

Florio’s take:  The Jets barely beat a bad Raiders team and blew what would have been a big upset at Lambeau Field.  Assuming that the Week Two Bears and not the Week One Bears make the trek to MetLife Stadium, the Jets won’t have to worry about losing the game by an ill-timed timeout.

Florio’s pick:  Bears 23, Jets 14.

60 responses to “PFT’s Week Three picks

  1. Less focus on the social causes and more looking at game film might help with that 5-11. Just throwing that out there.

  2. Matt Cassel is very inconsistent. He was terrible last week, so that means he should be good this week. The defense has been playing well, but the Saints aren’t going to go 0-3 anymore than the Patriots were going to go 0-2. Also, I heard there was some kind of distraction for the Vikings this week. Saints by 10.

  3. The Browns are not push overs. They’ll still lose double digit games this season, but if there’s such a thing as a Pyrrhic victory in the NFL, it’s that their point differential will be somewhere around minus-20 by the end of the season.

    Ravens 19
    Browns 16

  4. Broncos fans are a bunch of babies. So what if Phil Simms sometimes criticizes your precious team? Heath Evans hates the Eagles but nobody is organizing a petition. Broncos fans are going to have something real to cry about Sunday evening.

  5. The Bills are impoved but certainly not world beaters and the Chargers need to win these type of games with an extremely difficult schedule. No way they can loose in upstate NY.

  6. The 11 losses last week speaks to the direction of this site. The same attitude that pushed you to make those irrational picks is same as what motivates you to take the asinine stances you do on the site. Just trying to be different with no attention paid to reason.

  7. I’m willing to wager a large sum of money, $10, that if you guys spent a quarter of the time you spend on social stories on actual football analysis, you would pick much better. Just a thought.

  8. Panthers will wipe the Steelers! Their defense is not what it used to be! And The upset pick will be the Redskins beating the Eagles! Dont underestimate Washington`s defense.You heard it here 1st!!!!

  9. Leading his team to a super bowl, and NFC Championship Game back to back while nearly coming back to win both games when the niner’s vaunted defense had its usual playoff collapse; not to mention having more road playoff wins in 2 seasons than Montana and Young combined….. I’d say the verdict is definitely in. He’s a franchise QB without a doubt.

    Yes he had a bad game last week, as did the entire team. Credit to the bear’s CB who made those plays. On to ‘Zona

  10. I like the thinking on the Bears/Jets. Close, low-scoring game with Bears surviving at the end. 20-17 or 24-20 sounds about right to me.

  11. I’m a Lion’s fan, but despite their high-powered offense, they jusdt don’t execute as well as Green Bay’s offense. I think all us Lion’s fans are hopeful, but not overly optimistic with our injuries piling up and kicking issues.

  12. not a fan of the bills or chargers

    Bills are an improved team and playing at home. Other then Charger fans, no one would be surprised if the Bills win a close one at home. Talent wise the teams are not too far apart with the Chargers having a clear edge at QB.

    2000 NFL season

    Patriots 5-11 last in the AFC east
    Raiders 12-4 first in AFC west

  13. The Steelers will only score 12 or 13 points?

    But, but, but …… Roethlisberger had two decent games in the second half of last season …. no-huddle …. Roethlisberger is in his prime and in great shape ….. no-huddle ….. Captain Big Ben Roethlisberger is taking command of the offense like a coach on the field ….. no-huddle, no-huddle, no-huddle.

    Roethlisberger does not put points on the scoreboard. Never has, never will. If the defense does not carry him on its back and hand him seven or eight 13-9 wins in a season the Steelers do not make the playoffs. Anybody thinking that Roethlisberger has somehow magically turned the corner and will finish anywhere above average — as in top 16 or better — in scoring is just fooling themselves. And of course no-huddle, no-huddle, no-huddle.

  14. MDS’s pick: Dolphins 27, Chiefs 20

    Florio’s pick: Dolphins 27, Chiefs 14.

    So MDS thinks the Dolphins are as good as the Broncos and Florio thinks they are a touchdown better than the Broncos.

    No wonder you knuckleheads were 5-11 & 8-8 last week.

  15. As a diehard Bengals fan, I do expect them 5 win on Sunday, but I am seriously concerned about the injuries finally catching up to them. I wouldn’t be stunned at a Bengals loss and then we come back healthy after our week 4 bye and go on a serious run.

    I don’t care if you have the best NFL offenses of all time, if you lose your top 3 receiving options, it’s gonna come back to haunt you sooner or later. We dominated the Falcons because they weren’t used to AFC North football. You have be sound on both your offense and defensive lines to have a chance to beat one the teams in that division. Just ask New Orleans.


  16. I’m not a fan of either the Broncos nor the Seahawks; so while I greatly respect Seattle at home.. I cannot help but think that Manning has had this game circled since the schedule was released.

    I would not doubt it if someone said to me that Peyton has done nothing but watch tape-after-tape of Seahawk games in his spare time, in particular, last weeks game. Combined with the improvement of the Denver defense.. I think the both of you have this wrong.

    Denver 24 Seattle 17

  17. If the Saints can’t beat the down-in-the-mouth Vikings, they may start having more problems with their fan base than the Vikings do.

  18. Packers over the Lions? I understand the fact the Lions Cornerbacks are injured/out or bad. But that front line of the Lions is going to crush Rodgers on that turf. I don’t care for either team, but Jordy Nelson won’t be able to cry “Pass Interference” every time he misses the ball anymore.

  19. Cowboys 14, Rams 14….

    Florio really hates the Cowboys. It must have killed him to pick them to win.

    Boys win by 10

  20. Usually I hate hate hate the Steelers, but I must insist that Jarvis Jones and Jason Worilds knock Cam Newton on his sorry ass over and over again en route to a 20-17 victory (in overtime!).

  21. You can bet your sweet giblets that Peyton Manning has watched that superbowl film about 400 times, along with every play run by the Squawks defense this year and last season as well… Along with a stepped up D in the offseason, you better go ahead and flip flop the score from the superbowl. Denver wins in a blowout come Sunday..

  22. I think the Seahawks remember last week against the Chargers and start second guessing.
    I think the Broncos will remember the Super Bowl and they will plan it all out to the finest Peyton Manning detail and come into Seattle like a Monster and crush the Seahawks under their hooves.

  23. I didn’t know the Eagles we’re playing the “Washington” Team.

    This Washington team has to be the Seahawks right? They are the only team I can think of that plays in a place named after George Washington.

    Now the REDSKINS are based in Virginia and play in Maryland, so it can’t THAT team.

    Aces fellas.

  24. Not sure if Hawks were looking forward to this game when they played so poorly against the Chargers or if they really are that bad. But if that same D shows up this week, Manning and Broncos will destroy the Hawks.

  25. Got to say as a Hawks fan I have never seen these guys so pissed and serious after the Charger loss. I think this is the wrong week to playing the Hawks at home. I expect the Broncos to show up and ball out and if the Hawks would have won last week I would lean the Broncos way even though we are at home. Not now, not after they way these guys are foaming at the mouth. I expect some heavy 3-4 this week and a lot of focus in the middle for the Hawks cause they know Denver will try and exploit that weakness from last week. It won’t work!

  26. All you guys take these picks way too seriously. Who cares if they didn’t pick your team to win?

    Did anyone have the Browns beating the Saints? No.

    Did anyone have the Bears beating the 49ers? No. (Well I did but is because I’m biased not because I thought the Bears would actually win.)

    Everyone will get picks wrong. Get over it.

  27. Man what does Florio have against SF. I think they have a shot to lose, but this dude never picks them nor has much of anything more than slightly positive to say about them.

  28. Just a friendly suggestion for this football website. Work a banner with all the day/week’s realtime NFL scores into the website. People come here for news, but I’d come here a lot more if you had the scores, box scores, or some kind of gamecast.

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