PFT’s Week Seven picks

Getty Images

Well, he swept me last week.  MDS and I differed on three games.  He was right (and I was wrong) on each of them.

This week, we disagree on only one game.  It involves a team on which we’ve disagreed four prior times this year.  He’s been right each time, and I’ve been wrong.

Coincidentally (or not), he now leads the season-to-date contest by four games.

For the week, MDS was 12-3 and I was 9-6.  For the year, he’s at 59-32 and I’m at 55-36.

Jets at Patriots

MDS’s take: I still don’t think the Jets are quite as bad as their record suggests, and one of these weeks I think the Jets are going to win a game when no one sees it coming. But this won’t be the week. Tom Brady has turned things around recently and is playing very well, and the Jets simply don’t have the manpower in the secondary to keep up.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 27, Jets 17.

Florio’s take:  It’s the second annual last trip by Rex Ryan to Foxborough.  And likely the final one.  Bill Belichick and company send Rex packing with a butt-kicking.  Maybe Rex ends up working for Bill in 2015?

Florio’s pick:  Patriots 34, Jets 10.

Falcons at Ravens

MDS’s take: The Ravens are playing good football in all three phases of the game, while the Falcons are playing well on offense and special teams but struggling mightily on defense. That will be the difference, as Joe Flacco will put up big numbers against a weak Atlanta secondary.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 31, Falcons 21.

Florio’s take:  Winless on the road and suddenly unable to win at home, the Falcons are still looking for their next victory after that 56-14 thrashing of the Buccaneers.  And the Falcons will keep looking beyond their trip to Baltimore.

Florio’s pick:  Ravens 31, Falcons 20.

Titans at Washington

MDS’s take: Kirk Cousins has been terrible the last few weeks, but this week he gets to play a bad Titans defense. Look for DeSean Jackson to make a couple of big plays in the passing game and those big plays to be the difference.

MDS’s pick: Washington 20, Titans 14.

Florio’s take:   The one-win Washington team gets a rare chance to pick up a second.  There may not be many/any more after it.

Florio’s pick:  Washington 20, Titans 14.

Seahawks at Rams

MDS’s take: The Seahawks’ schedule got off to a brutal start, as four of their first five opponents were likely playoff teams. Now the Seahawks are entering the easier stretch of their schedule, and they should make quick work of the Rams.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 28, Rams 14.

Florio’s take:  The suddenly shaky Seahawks look to re-establish themselves against the regularly-shaky Rams.  St. Louis could put up a fight  early (like they did at home against the 49ers on Monday night) and then fade late (like they did at home against the 49ers on Monday night).  Either way, no one will be thinking the Seahawks are in danger after Sunday.  Even if they are.

Florio’s pick:  Seahawks 30, Rams 17.

Browns at Jaguars

MDS’s take: The Browns are surprisingly good. The Jaguars are even worse than anyone could have imagined. I expect the Browns to go on a run and establish themselves as AFC playoff contenders.

MDS’s pick: Browns 31, Jaguars 13.

Florio’s take:  It’s a trap game for a team that is used to being the trap team.  But the Browns will be favored for the next three weeks.  Can they win the games they’re supposed to win?  Survey says, “Probably.”

Florio’s pick:  Browns 27, Jaguars 16.

Bengals at Colts

MDS’s take: This was the toughest game on the board for me to pick. The Bengals are a better team overall, but they’re without their best player in A.J. Green, they’re coming off a hard-fought overtime loss, and they’re heading to Indianapolis to play a Colts team that’s on extra rest after a Thursday night game. Add it all up and it looks to me like a close win for Indianapolis.

MDS’s pick: Colts 21, Bengals 20.

Florio’s take:  The Colts have had a little extra rest to get ready for a Bengals team that could use a little more after playing five full quarters at home.  Indy is rolling; the Bengals find themselves in the middle of an unexpected four-team scrum.

Florio’s pick:  Colts 30, Bengals 21.

Vikings at Bills

MDS’s take: Teddy Bridgewater is a talented young quarterback, but he struggled mightily when the Lions brought inside pressure on Sunday, and the Bills have the personnel to get the same kind of inside pressure against the Vikings. Bridgewater is going to have another tough game in another Vikings loss.

MDS’s pick: Bills 20, Vikings 10.

Florio’s take:  It took a week longer than the new owners had hoped, but the Bills get the first win of the Pegula era against the Purple Paste Eaters.

Florio’s pick:  Bills 24, Vikings 10.

Dolphins at Bears

MDS’s take: The Bears’ defense is much improved from last year, with free agent addition Willie Young making a huge difference and leading the league with 7.0 sacks. I like Young to get a lot of pressure on Ryan Tannehill as the Bears win.

MDS’s pick: Bears 24, Dolphins 20.

Florio’s take:  The Bears have not yet won at Soldier Field this year.  That streak ends on Sunday against a Dolphins team that blew a prime opportunity to upend the Packers.

Florio’s pick:  Bears 27, Dolphins 17.

Saints at Lions

MDS’s take: The Saints’ offense is good and their defense is bad. The Lions’ defense is good and their offense is bad. I’ll break the tie by going with home-field advantage, and that means the Lions.

MDS’s pick: Lions 23, Saints 20.

Florio’s take:  The Lions have a great defense, but they haven’t faced an offense quite like the one the Saints have.  Sure, Reggie Bush will want some revenge.  But he can only do so much to match what the Saints will muster, with two weeks to rest and to prepare for a showdown with the team New Orleans manhandled less than three years ago in the playoffs.

Florio’s pick:  Saints 34, Lions 27.

Panthers at Packers

MDS’s take: Cam Newton looks like he’s getting healthier and playing better, so the Panthers should be able to put plenty of points on the board in Green Bay. Unfortunately for the Panthers, their defense is struggling and Aaron Rodgers is at the top of his game, which means Green Bay wins a high-scoring contest.

MDS’s pick: Packers 34, Panthers 27.

Florio’s take:  The Packers have found the gas pedal since losing in ugly fashion to the Lions.  The Panthers, as up-and-down as any team this season, keep finding the pedal then losing it.  But after giving up 37 points to the Bengals in Cincinnati, the Carolina defense could get shredded in the land o’ cheddar.

Florio’s pick:  Packers 34, Panthers 23.

Chiefs at Chargers

MDS’s take: Philip Rivers is playing the best football of his career right now, and the Chiefs’ defense is not playing particularly well. I expect Rivers to have a big game.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 30, Chiefs 20.

Florio’s take:  Before getting a chance to take their best shot at the Broncos in Denver, the Chargers have to withstand the best the Chiefs have to offer, with two weeks to get ready for it.  If the Chargers weren’t in the midst of a special season, that would be a real concern.

Florio’s pick:  Chargers 27, Chiefs 20.

Cardinals at Raiders

MDS’s take: Give Tony Sparano credit for this — the Raiders looked like they were playing harder for him on Sunday against the Chargers than they had played previously this season for Dennis Allen. Having said that, the Raiders simply aren’t a very talented football team, and the Cardinals should beat them decisively.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 34, Raiders 17.

Florio’s take:  Another trap game for a team that not long ago was a trap team.  Throw in Carson Palmer’s desire for some warped sense of revenge against the second of two teams on which he quit, and the Cardinals likely won’t be caught napping.

Florio’s pick:  Cardinals 27, Raiders 23.

Giants at Cowboys

MDS’s take: The Cowboys’ defense is far from great, but it’s much improved from last year, and it should be able to shut down the Giants, whose offense is struggling. DeMarco Murray will have another big game as the Cowboys play ball control in the second half.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 20, Giants 10.

Florio’s take:  The Giants are 4-1 at Jerryworld.  The Cowboys are 5-1.  But these aren’t the same old Cowboys who have dropped four of five at home against their rivals from New York.  And these Giants aren’t the team that recently won three in a row, especially with Victor Cruz done for the year and Rashad Jennings gone for now.

Florio’s pick:  Cowboys 27, Giants 17.

49ers at Broncos

MDS’s take: Can Peyton Manning throw for three touchdown passes against a good 49ers defense and break Brett Favre’s NFL record? I think he can, and the Broncos will win an entertaining and close game.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 28, 49ers 24.

Florio’s take:  49ers coach Jim Harbaugh reportedly “evaluated” Peyton Manning in 2012.  Harbaugh gets a chance to evaluate Manning a lot more closely on Sunday night.  And Harbaugh won’t like what he sees.

Florio’s pick:  Broncos 31, 49ers 20.

Texans at Steelers

MDS’s take: The Steelers’ defense was shredded by the Browns on Sunday, but Houston’s offense isn’t as good as Cleveland’s. I think Pittsburgh will win a low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 13, Texans 10.

Florio’s take:  On the rare occasions when the Steelers are backed against the wall, they come out swinging.  Facing in prime-time audience at home on Monday night after getting blown out by the Browns, the Steelers will come out swinging.

Florio’s pick:  Steelers 24, Texans 13.

65 responses to “PFT’s Week Seven picks

  1. Joe Flacco threw for just over 300 yards and 5 touchdowns last week. He will throw for more yards and “only” 4 TDs on Sunday.

    Ravens 30
    Falcons 17

  2. As much as I hate them, Pats will win in an absolute blow out tonight. Mark my words, this Pats team is going to get better and better. They’re my picks, reluctantly, to make it to the Super Bowl this year.

  3. Giants win, not because they are better, but because its the ebb and flow of the season, Giants got embarrassed and the Cowboys won a big game on the road. Plus Dallas might take NY lightly.

  4. Say what? The Packers didn’t lose to the Bears.
    The Packers embarrassed them in Chicago.

  5. Sparano did the same thing in Miami, I dont know how this guy isn’t a head coach. He gets his teams to play hard as the interim coach and the Raiders wont be a pushover the rest of the season.

  6. If the Jets can hold on in the first quarter, I think they do have a chance tonight. Not a big one, but it’s there. Whether a win in Gillette will save Ryan’s job — and whether that’s a good thing for the Jets — adds another interesting layer to this heated contest. But I’ll be drunk in a bar either way.

  7. Is it just me or does it seem to others that every weeks prime time games have either the Steeler or Giants as one of the competing teams……

  8. I hate the Jets but I smell an upset. Short week, banged up Brady. And the Jets under Rex have, despite how bad they are against anyone else, always put up a fight against Bill & Brady.

  9. Yea, the Bills will destroy Minny. Lions wont lose to the abysmal Saints. Detroit O vs Saints D will be a higher score than Saints O vs the number one D in the league. Suh is lights out this year. Ever heard of Tahir Whitehead? Levy?? MDS got you beat this week little buddy

  10. Sorry, the Packers offense IS like the Saints offense. The Lions held the Pack in check, so there’s no reason they can’t hold the Jimmy Graham-less Saints in check.

  11. Weren’t the Packers an offense like the Saints have? Saints won’t have Jimmy Graham either. They’re not even at the level of the Packers when the Lions held them to 7.

  12. If Jake Locker starts (um, plays the entire game), the Titans win. If Charlie Whitehurst starts, the Redskins win.

  13. Raiders and Vikings will win this week and the Giants will be blown to pieces by Jerry’s shoplifters!

  14. I thought the Bengals were coming off a hard-fought overtime tie, not a loss. And I can only wish the Packers had lost to the Bears.

  15. Saints absolutely have to find a way to win on the road. There is too much talent on this roster to remain under .500.

  16. No way SF wins without Willis. Julius Thomas the TE has 9 TD and Peyton can pick apart any defense, no matter if you stop the run. Peyton will find someone to pick on like he did to Cromartie when we played them. I think the Saints win, the Chiefs will beat SD, Bears will get home win no. 1, Panthers will finally lose a conference game, I’ll believe in Eli &Coughlin for ONE MORE GAME, Seattle will respond, AZ will have no problem as Palmer & Jared “The Hulk” Veldheer will pick apart their former team…..and the rest of the matchups I think are predictable

  17. The Bears need to establish themselves at home before the weather turns. Going into the 2nd half of the season with an 0-3 record at Soldiers would not be good considering they will play 5 of their last 8 games there.

    I like the Bears to win, but I think the Fins will take them down to the wire. The Bears’ OTs have been a little shaky this year and I think Miami’s very good DEs will make Cutler pretty uncomfortable on Sunday.

  18. The LAST PLACE Pittsburgh Steelers are NOT going to beat the Texans, or anyone else, for that matter..

    You guys must be living in the 90’s…

  19. The pattern for the Thursday night games has been that the better of the two teams looks really really good and the worse team looks really really bad. With that established, I see a blowout tonight in favor of the Pats.

  20. It’s been raining in Foxboro for hours and is scheduled to continue throughout the entire game. Accumulation will be well over an inch..Inclement weather usually favors the underdog… just saying

  21. Only game you guys differ this week is the Lions v Saints? Not much blood in the water here…

    I give an edge to the Lions at home taking into account that the Saints are missing Jimmy Graham.

    I don’t think getting Mark Ingram back gives them any edge over Robinson, as Robinson looks pretty good himself.

    Look for Kenny Stills to get a long TD in this game though, the Lions swarm tackle and bottle up the middle, so there should be a shot or two taken deep on occasions where Detroit’s defensive line fail to get to Brees.

  22. 4 obvious mistakes. Packers did not lose to the Bears, Bengals did not lose to Carolina, Washington team name is Redskins, and Florio shouldn’t be writing.

  23. The Chiefs d isnt playing well? 5th in the league in points allowed playing playing manning, Brady and a very good niners team but ya they’ve been awful…

  24. Steelers are about to go on a home rampage of winning. There only tough game will be the colts. Then the critics will go hide out like usual. Steelers 24 Texans 13

  25. I am a Packer fan, and I have absolutely ZERO confidence that they can beat a team with a good mobile QB. While I hope they win, I could see Cam running for 150 and 2 TDs easily.

    Clay Matthews his horrible setting an edge… Cam will sprint right around him readily.

  26. Crippled and underdog 49ers walk into Denver and show them boys what physical football is all about.

  27. The D is horrendous, but I think Drew Brees not having his favorite target Jimmy Graham is an even bigger deal. Don’t know what to make of that offense after crapping the bed in Dallas.

  28. Browns can prove themselves to be a serious AFC North contender by beating the Jaguars this week in Florida.

    Remember that the Jaguars came back twice in the second half to win in Cleveland last year.

    However, Hoyer leads the NFL with a 56% completion rate on passes over 16 yards and te Browns can run the ball to control the time of possession.

    Say goodnight Jacksonville.

    Another statement game for the Browns, 31-21 and the division goes up for grabs as the Steelers and Bengals both lose.

  29. “Browns can prove themselves to be a serious AFC North contender by beating the Jaguars this week in Florida.”

    A win vs JAX doesn’t prove anything, but a loss would raise some eyebrows.

  30. The Bills have a nasty habit of late to play down to their opponents level. That game will be a lot closer than you think…that said, the Bills D will absolutely destroy Bridgewater and whatever HB they have to run against them. The Bills O may be foundering, but this is the best Buffalo defense since the 1960s.

  31. As a Chargers fan, let me go on the record here and now, and say that the Raiders could very easily beat the Cardinals this week.

    We all know the Cards are pretenders, and the Raiders are riding high on a moral victory, almost beating the Chargers, and they seem to have finally located some offensive talent.

    If they can muster up some defense, which against the Cards will be easier than against the Chargers, they could absolutely win this game, possibly even by multiple scores.

  32. Y’all need to put your big-boy pants on and call them the “Redskins”. That’s the Washington team’s name that you keep referring to. I know it’s hard for you, but you can do it.

  33. Down goes Toe Head!!! Peyton will get crushed by the Niners D. Nobody is passing on them, nobody is running on them. If not for some early season ST blunders, their points allowed average would be 5 points less – Philly scored ZERO offensive points. Dallas got 10 of theirs in garbage time. Do these tools even watch football?

  34. Will you please stop it with the sanctimonious “Washington” crap. Remember, your livelihood, unless I’m mistaken, is derived from opining about football for crying out loud. In a previous generation, you’d have starved to death – just remember that.

  35. This above shows that the readers of this site are no better at picking winners than are the hosts — and are way more dilusional in their analysis.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to leave a comment. Not a member? Register now!

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.