Colts open as favorites vs. Patriots

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The Colts and Patriots square off in a key AFC battle next Sunday night in Indianapolis on NBC.

And oddsmakers have made the home team a slight favorite.

Several Nevada sports books have installed Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite over New England, according to multiple line-monitoring websites.

The Patriots have had a well-deserved reputation as dangerous underdogs in Bill Belichick’s tenure as head coach. Since the franchise’s first Super Bowl-winning season of 2001, the Patriots are 32-23 straight-up as underdogs (.582), according to Spreadapedia data.

The Colts, meanwhile, are a decent 13-10 outright as favorites since Chuck Pagano became coach in 2012 (.565).

The Patriots have won the last four meetings between the clubs, including a 43-22 rout of Indianapolis in the divisional round in January. The Colts’ last win vs. New England came on November 15, 2009, when Indianapolis pulled out a 35-34 victory after the Patriots’ failed fourth-down gamble in their own territory late in the game. The Colts haven’t been favored vs. New England since.

With a win Sunday, the Colts (6-3) earn the head-to-head tiebreaker vs. the Patriots (7-2). A New England victory, on the other hand, would strengthen the Patriots’ position in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. New England already has a valuable win vs. Denver (7-2) to its credit, and knocking off Indianapolis would be another major asset.

52 responses to “Colts open as favorites vs. Patriots

  1. That’s an interesting stat – so the Patriots under Belichick have a highest winning percentage as underdogs than Indy does as favorites?

    Of course the point spread is just to allow Las Vegas to push the betting public one way or another – and they feel it’s going to be a close game – which it probably will be.

  2. I remember that game in 2009 when Belichick decided to go for it on 4th and 2. I was honestly hoping they would punt because a 1st down meant game over. Thank god they went for it.

  3. Well considering the Pats are not able to cheat as much when they are not playing at home, this is about right. Brady is no longer elite. Luck, however, is elite and the second best qb in the game right now behind only Wilson.

    Other teams fans envy our teams players. Other teams players envy our teams fans. #choochoohawksdynastytrain
    #12thmanisheretostay #dynastybeforeyoureyes #kissthering

  4. This doesn’t take into consideration that New England will be rested coming off the bye, with 2 weeks to gameplan.

    What’s Belichick’s record off the bye????

  5. Brady is no longer elite… (22 TD, 2 INT, 103 passer rating, 2300yds passing)

    Russell Wilson is the best QB in the league… (11TD, 3 INT, 93 passer rating, 1600 passing yds)


  6. Before anybody goes crazy, remind yourself how Vegas decides the odds to ensure the placing of bets to go a certain way. Point being, Vegas is not in it to lose money while you will be 🙂

  7. Generally the home team is favored by three points right off the bat, so seems like Vegas is thinking it’ll be a pretty even matchup with Indy favored because they’re home

  8. Aren’t the colts also coming off their bye? I am of the opinion it is no advantage of both teams are in the same boat in terms of preparation.

  9. I like the Patriots to pull out a victory in this one. Given Bill Belichick had 2 weeks to prepare for them. He’s a good coach and he’ll have those guys ready. Patriots 34-27

  10. Shuld be a very high scoring game. Colts O is impressive as is the Pats right now. Colts can run it better and have some speed to burn on the outside…Pats have a much better secondary…can’t wait!

  11. Regardless of what happens in this game, the Colts are the future and the Pats are the past.

    Like it or not.

  12. If the Colts do win be ready for the Pat fans to be crying about the refs, piped in noise, etc,etc.
    Being a Colts fan I would love to see the Colts win but Im not sure if Pagano, Pep and the other coaches can match wit with BB.

  13. Vegas is seeing something I don’t. Offenses are fairly even. Pats D is much better than the Colts. Belichick v Pagano with extra time to prepare? No contest. I’ll be suprised if it’s any closer than last yrs playoff blowout, even though that was in Foxboro.

  14. Andrew Luck’s stats in the two games that he has played versus New England:

    Nov. 8th 2012: 27-50 334yds. 2TDs 3INTs
    24-59 New England win

    Jan. 11th 2013: 20-41 331yds. 2TDs 4INTs
    22-43 New England win

    Seven interceptions versus Patriots defenses that didn’t have Revis or Browner and the Colts are favorites? New England is currently 2nd in the league on “takeaway points scored” with 72… just saying.

  15. Wow, I am a Colts fan but I would bet the Pats on this game all day long. Colts HAVE to blitz to get pressure and they can’t cover tight ends. Recipe for getting torched when playing Brady and Gronk. Pats win going away I feel.

  16. I don’t think the Pats defense is as good as their fans think it is.

    However, it doesn’t really make a difference because right now their offense is unstoppable. I don’t see how the Colts change that.

  17. Who wouldn’t love to see Adam Vinatieri kick another game winning field goal? Only now it will be for the Colts. Poetic justice at its finest.

  18. I think what Pats fans are saying isn’t that the team will be healed up with a week’s rest. I think that they are saying that Bill Bellichick had an extra week to gameplan. If your response is “so did Chuck Pagano” you have to ask yourself how that sounds.

  19. This will be a GREAT game. I think the Pats will win this won. The Pats have a tough schedule. Not an easy game in the bunch. Last three are division opponents and all will play them hard. If the Pats want another SB, they don’t want to get burned out playing these final seven games and having no fuel for the playoffs. Fine.

    But then the problem is they fail to keep pace with the Broncos, who have a much easier schedule to the end of the season, and the Pats have to play at Denver in the playoffs.

  20. It’s o.k….. We’re used to being underdogs. We only have Gronk, Revis and Brady as our big names. Gronk is made of glass, Revis is Mevis, and Brady is washed out and old. Even the team is on its way out… But our underdog team will play like a rabid pit bull. Just you watch….

  21. As long as Bill Belicheck is running the show the Patriots are the past, present, and future. I’d think people would have learned by now, BB is the straw that stirs the drink. Andrew Luck is a great QB, but so is Payton “light bulb head” Manning, how has it worked out for Mr. 100 watt?

  22. I can hear Rodney screaming ‘disrespect!’ from here…
    Here is a clue-never give the Pats something to rally around…Brady is Done, Revis is done, Pats are not that good (Thanks TJ Ward for that one), indy is favored. It never seems to work out for people when that happens.

    And sorry the best 4 QB’s are still Manning ,Brady, Brees and Rogers. Wilson and Luck are not even close yet. Luck will be, he may be the one to break all of Payton’s records, but Wilson…sorry Seattle fans he is not the poster boy of the NFL that you think he will be.

  23. Belichick’s Patriots have a winning record against every NFL team except one, the New York Giants (2-3). Alas (for the Patriots and their fans), they had to play the Giants in their last two Super Bowl appearances. His Patriots have won 73% of their regular season games and 69% of their playoff games. He is 17-0 in games against Atlanta, Jacksonville, Philadelphia and Dallas; and, in the division, they are 26-3 against Buffalo, 21-10 against the Jets, and 19-10 against the Dolphins. That’s why fans of other teams hate them so much.

  24. No offense intended to the poster praising the Pats’record after the bye of 10-4 but that is a 71.4% winning percentage versus their record in all regular season games under Bill of 73%.

  25. No team so far has what it needs to stop Gronkowski. If they double or triple team him, they toss to Lafell, Edelman or any number of on field weapons. Boom. 35-17 Pats

  26. Everyone is aware that both teams are coming off of bye weeks, but if we are being honest giving BB and the Pats 2 weeks to prepare for a team and giving pretty much anyone else 2 weeks is historically a little different. There are certain styles and QB’s that Bill has the ability to completely confuse when given enough time, and based on two head to head match ups Andrew Luck certainly falls in that category.

  27. People love to hate the Pat’s and Brady/Belechick for some reason? Maybe it’s the way they WIN and WIN some more when everyone in the world of sports bandwagoneers is on and off their team so often few have the resolve of Pat’s fans and the coach QB duo that makes this game so fun to watch for so long will ignore this and just WIN again. The Little Donkeys are in for a butt kicking and Luck’s gonna have a bad day trying to catch up to the juggernaut that is the Pat’s offense of late. The Big Donkeys got spanked, humilliated and had their noses bent, Peyton had his angry face (read whiney little boy) on for most of the game and took responsibility for the drubbing by saying he stunk that game, everyone’s counted TB out, said he’s washed up and all but the truth is he’s just as deadly a QB as ever, he just needs the deep threat to catch the ball, there’s no wind in Indy to push the ball an extra 2-3 yds and LaFell can get behind most DB’s in the league so this game could be a very high scoring show of dominance by the Pat’s. The little donkeys have a great run game and may be able to move the ball for a while on the ground but at some point there’s gonna be a need to put a few long balls in the air, this is gonna be their downfall because the pairing of Revis and Browner as well as the play of McCourty at strong safety will leave the Pat’s other backs like Butler, Arrington, Ryan and Harmon, Jones and Dennard as well as Wilson and the passing downs become a hit or miss or INT/PICK6. the makings of a rout because they are trying to make the statement that you saw a blip on the radar at KC and called the Pat’s done, stick a fork in’em or whatever and every prognosticator and hater of the Pat’s from east to west, north, south and everyting in the middle said it’s over. Kurt Warner declared Brady to be done saying he’d cost them the game against Peyton’s donkeys and the falling Pat’s would lose by 20+- points and boy was he wrong, yet he’s still got a job doing a lousy job as a prognosticator and analyst for the NFL network making an A$$LOAD of money to be wrong.

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