NFL morning after: In the NFL, no one knows anything

AP

When the Seahawks blew out the Packers in Week One, I knew Seattle was the best team in the NFL.

When the Chiefs got blown out by the Titans in Week One, I knew Kansas City wasn’t going anywhere this year.

When the Broncos beat the Colts in Week One, I knew Denver was still the class of the AFC.

And when the Rams got blown out by the Vikings in Week One, I knew the Rams were one of the worst teams in the league.

Welcome to the NFL, where no one knows anything.

It can be the most maddening thing about the NFL, but I also think it’s the best thing about the NFL: The sheer unpredictability of it all makes it impossible to say with any degree of certainty what’s going to happen on any given Sunday, and that keeps us tuning in every Sunday. On this particular Sunday, the Seahawks lost to the Chiefs and the Broncos lost to the Rams. If I’d told you that would happen after Week One, you’d have said I was crazy.

But it’s not just those two games. Not even close. What if I’d told you at the start of the season that the Cardinals would have the best record in the NFL in Week 11? You’d have said I was crazy. What if I’d told you after the Patriots’ ugly Monday night loss at Kansas City in September that they’d have the best record in the AFC by mid-November? You’d have said I was crazy. What if I’d told you when the Packers were losing 38-17 at New Orleans a few weeks ago that the Packers would win their next two games by scores of 55-14 and 53-20? What if I’d told you that 4-6 would be a good enough record for first place in the NFC South, while 6-4 would be last place in the AFC North? What if I’d told you that the 2-8 Buccaneers would be closer to first place in their division than the 6-4 Seahawks and 49ers?

It’s never as bad as it seems in the NFL. Jay Cutler and the Bears’ offense were supposed to be a mess, and then Cutler threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns and the Bears beat the Vikings. But it’s also never as good as it seems in the NFL. The Browns were supposed to be turning things around, finally — and then they got blown out by the Texans.

It sure looks right now like the Cardinals are the best team in the NFC and the Patriots are the best team in the AFC. But we don’t know anything. Our opinions on that will surely change over the final six weeks of the season. Our opinions will probably change every week. All year long.

Here are my other thoughts from Sunday:

Chase Coffman should’ve been suspended. On Sunday Jay Glazer unearthed video from last week’s game showing Coffman, a Titans tight end, delivering a brutal cheap shot on a Ravens assistant coach on the sideline. The NFL has seen the video and fined Coffman only $30,000. That’s nowhere near enough. Coffman’s hit was every bit as bad as what Albert Haynesworth did to Andre Gurode, which resulted in a five-game suspension. It’s ridiculous that the NFL didn’t suspend Coffman at all.

Officials: Stop blowing plays dead prematurely. On Sunday in Chicago, Bears quarterback Jay Cutler clearly fumbled, but some official, for some reason, thought Cutler had thrown an incomplete pass and blew the play dead. The Vikings jumped on the ball, but by the time Minnesota recovered the officials had already blown the whistle, and so the ruling was that there was no recovery. This has actually happened with Cutler before, when he was in Denver, and he fumbled but referee Ed Hochuli ruled he had thrown an incompletion. That botched call handed the Broncos a win over the Chargers. When in doubt, the officials should always allow the play to keep going. It’s ridiculous that officials keep blowing plays dead instead of letting them go.

There’s no consistency from NFL referees. On Thursday night, Bills quarterback Kyle Orton was flagged for intentional grounding for a throwaway in the end zone, resulting in a safety. On Sunday, Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater had an almost identical throwaway in the end zone but wasn’t flagged. Intentional grounding in the end zone is a huge penalty. It’s frustrating that the NFL can’t get all the refs on the same page on such a big call.

Don’t sleep on the 49ers. I confess I was ready to write off San Francisco a couple weeks ago, when they were 4-4. But now they’re 6-4 after Sunday’s win at the Giants, and they can still go on a run to the NFC playoffs. If the 49ers are in it, they’re going to be a tough team to beat.

The NFC South is terrible. The Falcons are 0-6 this season against teams from outside their division, but because they’re 4-0 against teams in their division, they’re in first place in the NFC South. With the Falcons and Saints at 4-6, the Panthers at 3-7-1 and the Buccaneers at 2-8, it’s looking increasingly likely that the winner of this division will have a losing record — maybe 7-9, or maybe even 6-10. A 7-9 team has won a division before, but if a 6-10 team gets a home playoff game, the NFL may need to consider revising the playoff format. A 6-10 team hosting in the playoffs is just wrong.

Happy anniversary, Raiders fans. The Raiders last won a game one year ago today, November 17, 2013, against the Texans. Oakland lost its last six games last year and is 0-10 this year, a perfect 0-16 stretch over the last calendar year.

Andy Dalton turned things around. Last Thursday night, Dalton had what may have been the worst game I’ve ever seen from an NFL quarterback, completing just 10 of 33 passes for 86 yards, with no touchdowns, three interceptions and a passer rating of 2.0. But Dalton turned things around in a big way on Sunday against the Saints: He completed 16 of 22 passes for 220 yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions. That doesn’t speak well for the Saints’ defense, but it does speak well for Dalton’s ability to shake off a bad game and get back to work.

J.J. Watt remains amazing. Watt caught a touchdown pass in the Texans’ win over the Browns on Sunday, his fourth touchdown of the season. (He previously had another touchdown catch and also has a touchdown on an interception return and a fumble return.) Watt has scored more touchdowns than LeSean McCoy, Julio Jones, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Le’Veon Bell or Frank Gore. And, of course, Watt does much more than score touchdowns. He also recovered a fumble and had a sack and three tackles for loss on Sunday. Watt is a strong candidate for MVP of the league.

Washington’s offense just isn’t working. There’s a lot of blame to go around, and Robert Griffin III doesn’t deserve all, or even most, of it. Griffin actually looked a little more mobile on Sunday, rushing for 41 yards on six carries, and his two interceptions weren’t entirely his fault, either. But the result — a 27-7 loss to Tampa Bay — was ugly. Whoever you want to blame, there are serious problems in Washington, where the offense hasn’t looked particularly good in any of the three games that Griffin has run it this season, and Washington has lost all three games. It was only a couple years ago like Griffin looked like one of the most talented young quarterbacks ever to enter the NFL, but it feels like ages ago. Things change quickly in the NFL.

66 responses to “NFL morning after: In the NFL, no one knows anything

  1. RG3 is the big name so he’ll get the blame but outside of the backfield Washington doesn’t have a shred of offensive talent, and the only thing worse is the play calling.

    I don’t think Kap, or Wilson, both QBs that have been in Super Bowls, are worlds better than RG3, if at all. But if coaches don’t figure out how to use him, he might as well be Ryan Leaf.

  2. Two things…

    1) Raiders… lulz

    2) As a Chargers fan, I was calling Rivers the league MVP a few weeks ago. He clearly isn’t. But Watt clearly IS the league MVP. Watt is a game-changer on a team that desperately needs one. Without Watt, the Texans would be winless at this point in the season, and conversely, if Watt were on the Raiders, they would probably have several wins by now.

  3. Let’s hope that the craziness continues and the Steelers get blown out by the Titans tonight. Who actually thought it was a good idea to have the Titans on Monday Night Football?

  4. The Redskins offense has been terrible in Robert Griffin’s three starts, all losses, but its not his fault?

  5. lanman11 says:
    Nov 17, 2014 6:50 AM
    How the heck does a no talent guy like Tom Brady make it in the NFL???
    ======================
    You would be singing a different tune if Brady was the QB of your team.

  6. POLL:

    Thumbs UP if you think division winners with losing records should lose their home field advantage in the playoffs

    OR

    Thumbs DOWN if you think division winners with losing records shouldn’t be allowed in the playoffs altogether.

  7. *RG3 is the big name so he’ll get the blame but outside of the backfield Washington doesn’t have a shred of offensive talent, and the only thing worse is the play calling.*

    A team with Desean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Jordan Reed doesn’t have a shred of offensive talent outside the backfield? There are a lot of problems with the Redskins but a lack of offensive talent isn’t one of them. There are some good teams that don’t have that kind of offensive firepower. I know as a Ravens fan I would trade the law firm we currently have at WR/TE for those three and not have to think twice about it.

  8. Not sure how a 6-10 team hosting a playoff game (even though this won’t happen) is that much worse than a 7-9 team hosting vs an 11-5 team. On the other side of the coin let’s assume the rule was home field based on record only. Hypothetically Is it really fair to have a 10-6 team from say this years nfc east (cake schedule) host over a 9-7 division winner from a division such as this years nfc west? That is why the rule is what it is.

  9. natelan says:
    Nov 17, 2014 6:59 AM
    Two things…

    1) Raiders… lulz

    2) As a Chargers fan, I was calling Rivers the league MVP a few weeks ago. He clearly isn’t. But Watt clearly IS the league MVP. Watt is a game-changer on a team that desperately needs one. Without Watt, the Texans would be winless at this point in the season, and conversely, if Watt were on the Raiders, they would probably have several wins by now.

    —————-

    Rivers has some kind of rib injury that has been affecting him. Makes sense that his performance has dipped so much.

    Watt is definitely amazing, but Houston’s fate is now in the hands of Ryan Mallett. Houston are back in the division hunt, but if Mallett stinks they’ll be out of it again in a heartbeat.

  10. There’s nothing surprising about teams being up and down for one or more weeks. In the salary cap era of the past 20 years, there are no dominant teams that can keep all of their best players for 4-5 years. The best teams of the 1980s and early 1990s dominated the NFL more than the best teams today because talent is spread more even in the league today and along with that teams are less disrupted by losing their best players to free agency.

    I always find it funny to read and hear pronouncements in preseason and the early weeks f the season how “This team is the team to beat!” and “This week 4 matchup may be the most important game of the season!”.

    Its just BSing sitting on barstools.

  11. I will continue sleeping on the 49ers, thank you very much. They are the 7th seed in the NFC right now, but they have two games against Seattle and one against Arizona between now and the end of the season. Their offense couldn’t get much of anything going against the Giants despite 5 INTs, and not having their two stud ILBs is going to hurt their defense.

    Also, why has no one been discussing the very real possibility that the Seahawks could be the third consecutive defending Super Bowl champion to fail to make the playoffs the following season?

  12. Even if the NFC South champion has a 6-10 (probably almost impossible given that the teams play each other) or a 7-9 record, that team should get a home playoff game, just like the 7-9 2010 Seahawks did.

    Games are played to see what will happen, not to guarantee that the “best” team always wins the championship. Unless the NFL is going to get rid of divisions, then winning a division should be important. Teams play 6 of their 16 games in their division.

    Sometimes a 9-7 division winner makes the playoffs and hosts a playoff game while a 10-6 team from another division doesn’t even get a wild card berth. That’s the how the league is supposed to be. It’s entertainment, not some scientific measuring process.

  13. RG3 deserves the blame. If anyone else is to blame it’s the O-line and that darn defense. But, with weapons like Morris, Helu, Desean, Garçon, Paul and Reed – tbere is no reason to be this bad consistently. McCoy and Cousins both have had big game with the same exact offense. What’s Griffins excuse?? Dude is so overrated and it shows. He’s still young so hopefully he can turn it around. Right now, he’s a backup QB in this league.

    Question – why didn’t the Raiders re sign Jennings?

    Cards are legit, Packers are legit, and the Chiefs are balling out. Wild season indeed

  14. Aaron Rodgers broke Tom Brady’s NFL record of 288 straight passes at home without an interception with 322 (and counting).

    Rodgers also has not thrown an INT in any of his past 11 home games and has thrown 29 straight touchdown passes without a pick, both extending his own records.

    In addition Green Bay has scored at least 28 points at home this season 4 games in a row, another NFL record.

  15. Wow, for so many NFL “experts” how come it has taken some so long to finally realize that Denver is a one trick pony. No running game and 60 throws a game is not a winning formula, but yet just a few weeks ago all the “experts” were on the the “best team in the NFL” bandwagon. Looks like the wheels are starting to fall off that bandwagon. Denver is a horrible road team with their only road win coming against the lowly Jets. Of course don’t let that stop Peyton from padding his stats with another 300 yard game but when you can only put up 7 points against the Rams then I think you’ve been exposed. Oh why doesn’t everybody just go ahead and admit it, the only reason John Fox is a head coach is because he has an office that says “Head Coach” on the door other than that they just use him to go get coffee and donuts every morning.

  16. Niners had 5 int’s and only scored 16 pts! They are not as good as people think.

    And remember when the writers of this site said the dolphins would be the 2nd worse team in the NFL…. This site is used to not knowing anything.

  17. As a Saints fan, sorry yall have to put up with the fact that one of our sorry teams in the South will host a game.

  18. the 49ers are pathetic. they couldn’t put away the giants even though eli threw the ball right to them about 5 times. they won’t be in the playoffs.

  19. There’s a lot of blame to go around, and Robert Griffin III doesn’t deserve all, or even most, of it.
    ======================================

    Yeah, just ask him, he’ll tell you.

  20. The media wouldn’t have had ANY problem blaming Cousins for only scoring 7 points against a 1-8 team while throwing 2 picks.

    Sometimes perspective can be gained by just changing one thing and looking at the issue again.

  21. “What if I told you after the Patriots ugly loss at Kansas City that they would have the best record in the AFC? You’d have said I was crazy.”

    Not really, the Patriots problems were mainly centered on an offensive line in the state of flux. . The emergence of 4th round rookie center, Bryan Stork, has stabilized the entire unit.

    At some point he’ll be mentioned as one of those rare rookies who step off a college campus (Florida State) and make an immediate NFL impact.
    .

  22. A 7-9 team has won a division before, but if a 6-10 team gets a home playoff game, the NFL may need to consider revising the playoff format. A 6-10 team hosting in the playoffs is just wrong.

    —–

    I actually disagree with this statement. Correction, I agree that a 6-10 team hosting is wrong, but I feel you can’t have a Division style playoffs, but then change it because of a win-loss record. You live or die by the Divisional System. You can’t half-a** it.

    If you want it changed, they will need to do something big. Whether it’s go to a 2 Conference System (like the NHL now) and the best 6 or 8 have the playoffs and then the best team from each goes to the Superbowl, or something new we haven’t thought of yet, I don’t know.

    But to change the Division System because of one team with a bad win-loss ratio ruins the whole point of Divisions. What’s the point if winning your Division gets you a home game, you know, unless it sucks this year, in which case, screw you?

    It feels like you’re changing a very important part of the rulebook for the rare exception.

  23. Remove parity and you will no longer have the chance of crappy teams in the playoffs!
    Bring back the Dynasties of the 70’s & 80’s!

    Teams to hate: Raiders, Steelers, Cowboys, 49ers, Vikings, Bills oh wait…

  24. How can you judge RGIII when he’s getting killed in the pocket? Proof? Morris and Helu where dodging tacklers in the backfield all game. It was ridiculous!

    You can’t learn to be a pocket passer with no pocket!

    And the D? Slow Linebackers covering fast 6ft + receivers…

    2 & 20 and go all blitz… 52 yrd gain..

  25. 1. CBA offfseason rules make the first couple games an extension of preseason.

    2. Teams with young players take a while to gel.

    3. It takes OCs and DCs a few games to see what they’ve got and twiddle.

    4. When a good team essentially has no RB and loses two playmakers due to injury during a game, odds of playing well drop to near zero.

    There’s not all that much mystery if you pay attention. Jumping to conclusions early in seasons is dumb.

  26. Seahawks aren’t even close to being what they were last year. No pass rush with, problems against the run since Wagner is out, no down field threat with tate and harvin gone, offensive line is worse, and Wilson hasn’t closed games like he did last year. The schedule is tougher and players are busy filming commercials and spending their money. We’ve lost the hunger. Doubt we even get a wild card spot now

  27. I think it would be really interesting if every play from every game was analyzed for any officiating errors or inconsistencies or any type of concern. If the NFL was serious about officiating things to the best of their ability then they already do this to keep track of everything that could potentially be improved.

  28. The refs inconsistencies are worse than ever. The NFL wants to make the game more exciting, high scoring, faster play but they are taking away the essence to let people play. Penalties need to be reviewable and NFL Corporate needs to be involved more.

    Orton’s safety in the end-zone was a turning point in the Miami Bills game and the refs were dead wrong. Figure it out, Goodell.

  29. ” A 6-10 team hosting in the playoffs is just wrong.”

    A 6-10 team BEING IN the playoffs is just wrong.
    2 conferences.
    2 divisions each.
    Division winners get bye.
    Best 4 records after that, period.

    You would never have to worry about a losing record winning a division, hosting or playing in, a playoff game.

  30. jagmankane said:

    “A 6-10 team BEING IN the playoffs is just wrong.
    2 conferences.
    2 divisions each.
    Division winners get bye.
    Best 4 records after that, period.

    You would never have to worry about a losing record winning a division, hosting or playing in, a playoff game.”

    That’s great for right now, but what happens if/when the NFL adds a 33rd team in either Los Angeles or London?

    Granted, there will have to be realignment somehow once one or both of those cities gets a team, but I don’t think that system would work.

  31. As much as I really hate to say it, I think it’s pretty clear the Patriots are the team to beat. The Cardinals are a great story but nobody is going to beat New England again this season. The only silver lining is that after they win their 4th SB, maybe Belichick and Brady will retire and stop tormenting Bills fans. Then the Bills can just continue to torment us by themselves.

  32. “a perfect 0-16 stretch over the last calendar year”

    Actually, a calendar year begins on January 1. You should say “over the last year” or “12-month period.” Not that it would improve the record.

    Other points are all well-taken. League treating that sideline hit against a defenseless coach so cavalierly is truly amazing.

  33. The NFC South is terrible. The Falcons are 0-6 this season against teams from outside their division, but because they’re 4-0 against teams in their division, they’re in first place in the NFC South. With the Falcons and Saints at 4-6, the Panthers at 3-7-1 and the Buccaneers at 2-8, it’s looking increasingly likely that the winner of this division will have a losing record — maybe 7-9, or maybe even 6-10. A 7-9 team has won a division before, but if a 6-10 team gets a home playoff game, the NFL may need to consider revising the playoff format. A 6-10 team hosting in the playoffs is just wrong.

    You shouldn’t be penalized just cause your division is bad.

    You win the division, you get to host a game. Its that simple.

    GoBucs!!!

  34. “A 6-10 team hosting in the playoffs is just wrong.”

    I totally disagree. Winning your division, regardless of record, should give you a home playoff game.

    It’s just as much a reward to season ticket holders (the bread and butter of the league) as it is an incentive to teams.

  35. Ok trolls get ready for your nirvana….

    In the age of parity this is how the NFL is supposed to be, no team is supposed to be able to dominate every year. One team has looked parity in the eye and spat at it. The New England Patriots. Every single year they are a threat to go to and win the SB. Yes trolls I know, spygate, but since spygate they have won their division almost every year, 2 trips to the SB, one perfect regular season, basically since spygate they have still put up more post season wins than some franchises have in their history. No team is supposed to do what they do. Oh it’s all Brady, ok 11-5 the year we lost him, first time an 11-5 team failed to make the playoffs. You can hate them all you want but the fact remains since the inception of parity, no team has been as dominant as the Patriots year in year out. That is a fact, facts cannot be argued. Someday it will come to an end, and earlier this year it looked like the end was sooner rather than later, but we were all wrong. A team that was supposed to be dead is now the heavy SB favorites, and who they will play seems to change every week. One thing is certain in the NFL, the Pats are the only team to defy parity, an off year for the pats is losing in the AFC championship game, an off year for your team, not making the playoffs.

    There you go trolls, have at it

  36. JJ Watt won’t get MVP consideration and it’s not right. I think he should win the MVP. Why not? It’s basically a skewed popularity contest. How about giving defensive players some love? Oh wait, there’s a defensive MVP award. But there’s also an offensive MVP award, which means the NFL actually has two offensive MVP awards to one defensive MVP award.

    Matter fact, just rename the NFL MVP award to the QB/RB MVP.

    If JJ Watt was not on the Texans, and with such mediocre QB play, the Texans would have won even less games. Period.

  37. The NFL is turning into a joke. The game is being turned over to the Ref’s who as noted in this article are changing games on their own. I watched last night one 2 consecutive plays there were penalties that were not called. My theory is because it was NE and Indy. If it was NE and the Jets or Bills they would have been flagged. The reason you can’t figure out who is good because the new rules that are lopsided to the Offense turns game into blowout. Not even a good team can come back from 20 down after a few well timed TDs

  38. Orton’s safety in the end-zone was a turning point in the Miami Bills game and the refs were dead wrong. Figure it out, Goodell.

    That is an inaccurate statement on a couple levels. The call was correct, the non call in the Minnesota game was dead wrong. By no means were the Bills coming back in that game, so I wouldn’t put to much on the call regardless. Get over the loss pal they got beat.

  39. The intentional grounding by Andy Dalton which wasn’t called was even more blatant. There was no one within 30 yards of his throw but they said no grounding, and the Bengals scored a touchdown on that drive.

  40. richc111 says: Nov 17, 2014 12:03 PM

    The NFL is turning into a joke. The game is being turned over to the Ref’s who as noted in this article are changing games on their own. I watched last night one 2 consecutive plays there were penalties that were not called. My theory is because it was NE and Indy. If it was NE and the Jets or Bills they would have been flagged. The reason you can’t figure out who is good because the new rules that are lopsided to the Offense turns game into blowout. Not even a good team can come back from 20 down after a few well timed TDs
    ________________________________________________

    It’s turning into the NBA. Flopping and all…

  41. keltictim says:
    Nov 17, 2014 11:56 AM
    Ok trolls get ready for your nirvana….

    In the age of parity this is how the NFL is supposed to be, no team is supposed to be able to dominate every year. One team has looked parity in the eye and spat at it. The New England Patriots. Every single year they are a threat to go to and win the SB. Yes trolls I know, spygate, but since spygate they have won their division almost every year, 2 trips to the SB, one perfect regular season, basically since spygate they have still put up more post season wins than some franchises have in their history. No team is supposed to do what they do. Oh it’s all Brady, ok 11-5 the year we lost him, first time an 11-5 team failed to make the playoffs. You can hate them all you want but the fact remains since the inception of parity, no team has been as dominant as the Patriots year in year out. That is a fact, facts cannot be argued. Someday it will come to an end, and earlier this year it looked like the end was sooner rather than later, but we were all wrong. A team that was supposed to be dead is now the heavy SB favorites, and who they will play seems to change every week. One thing is certain in the NFL, the Pats are the only team to defy parity, an off year for the pats is losing in the AFC championship game, an off year for your team, not making the playoffs.

    There you go trolls, have at it

    Have you ever heard of the Colts?

  42. I don’t know why teams continue to play primarily zone against the Pats.

    With the O-line playing so well since it was readjusted, Brady has shown that he will pick apart any defense that thinks they can rush 3-4 and drop everyone else into zone coverage.

    Since the change in the O-line, the Jets have really been the only team that was successful slowing down New England’s offense, primarily because Ryan did a good job mixing up his defensive calls and by disguising where the blitzes were coming from.

  43. keltictim says:
    Nov 17, 2014 11:56 AM
    Ok trolls get ready for your nirvana….

    I’m not even gonna give your post another paste. Your point is so asinine. There have been the same teams that have been dominate over the past ten years that are always in it year in and year out. Packers, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Patriots, and to a somewhat lesser extent the Chargers and the Saints. The Patriots are not in a class of their own despite what ESPN has made you believe. The only reason the patriots have won the east almost every year is because they have had horrible competition for 6 games every year. If you put them in the north with 4 games against the Steelers and Ravens for the past ten years and their post season births are significantly dropped. So enjoy this win but you wont play the colts D every week from here on out.

  44. There has been a fundamental and significant improvement to the Packers defense the last two Sundays. Maybe it’s moving Clay inside. Maybe it’s Peppers arriving at a position of respected veteran leadership. Maybe it’s being able to play 10 consecutive weeks together without coping with a major injury. Maybe all those things and others I’m not skilled enough to see.

    But …….. something is clearly better.

    We used to be able to win a game if the Green Bay defense made just a couple of stops because the Pack offense is reliable. Now, we’re getting stops in bunches and sometimes Aaron can’t even get back on the field because the Green Bay defense is scoring all by themselves.

    Speaking about defensive scores ….. that run after the interception by Peppers was interesting yesterday. I’ve watched the replay and only the WR Matthews was able to catch up with Julius. Then his tackle attempt didn’t even cause Julius to break stride. [I remember a game against Chicago when Aaron was able to bring down a linebacker (Ulacher).]

    Next week I’m thinking Coach McCarthy calls a screen pass to Peppers just to see if anyone can tackle him or not.
    .
    .

  45. The significant improvement in the GB defense is that they played Cutler and Sanchez…..they both stink and are turnover machines. Take off the cheese flavored glasses…..

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