With two games remaining, five teams remain in play for the top seed in the NFC. For some of the five, like the Cowboys, there’s arguably a better chance of missing the playoffs completely than securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Here’s a look at how the various tiebreakers will apply to the teams in contention for the top seed.
First, there’s no way the 9-5 Eagles can get there. If they win the last two games, they’ll at best be tied with the NFC North champion (since the four-loss Packers and Lions play each other in Week 17) and/or the NFC West champion (since the three-loss Cardinals and the four-loss Seahawks play next week). Philly lost to the Packers and Cardinals, which would cause them to lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with either team. And with a best possible conference record of 7-5, the Eagles would lose out to every other NFC contender on that measurable, even if the Eagles win their final two games.
Second, the Cardinals simply need to beat the Seahawks and 49ers. With a 13-3 record for Arizona, there can be no ties, with anyone else in the conference.
As to Dallas, two wins would result in a 12-4 record, which would give the Cowboys a tie with the Seahawks (if Seattle wins their last two games) and the top seed if the Cowboys and Seahawks finish in a two-way tie. For that to happen, both Green Bay and Detroit would have to finish 11-5, meaning that the winner of their Week 17 game would have to lose next week (the Lions play the Bears and the Packers face the Buccaneers).
Dallas would lose a two-way 12-4 tie with the NFC North champion, since Dallas can have an 8-4 record at best in the conference. The Packers would finish 9-3 in the conference, if they end up 12-4. The Lions would have a 10-2 record in the conference, if they win their last two and finish 12-4. (The Cowboys also would lose a two-way tie with the Cardinals, if Arizona loses one of their last two but still wins the division; Arizona beat Dallas earlier this year.)
For the Seahawks, beating the Cardinals would give Seattle a head-to-head sweep over Arizona, vaulting the Seahawks into the division lead and leaving them a home win against the Rams away from 12-4. It also would position Seattle to win a three-way tie with the Cowboys and the Packers, if they each finish 12-4. The Seahawks would have a 10-2 conference record, the Packers would be 9-3, and the Cowboys would be 8-4. The Cowboys would drop out first, and the Seahawks would win the remaining head-to-head tiebreaker based on its Week One win over Green Bay.
Ditto for a three-way tie between the Seahawks, Lions, and Cowboys. But the tiebreaker between the Seahawks and Lions would have to be decided based on common games, since Seattle and Detroit will be 10-2 in the conference, if both win their final two games. If that happens, Seattle will be 5-0 against the Packers, Panthers, Giants, and Cardinals (twice), and the Lions will be 3-2 against the Packers (twice) Panthers, Giants, and Cardinals.
For the Packers and the Lions, it won’t be easy to get the top seed. They need to avoid a tie entirely with the NFC West champion, which means the Cardinals must lose to the Seahawks and 49ers, and that the Seahawks must lose to the Rams. As to Green Bay, it underscores the importance of Sunday’s deflating loss to the Bills. If the Packers had won and moved to 11-3, they’d be two wins and an Arizona loss to the Seahawks away from nailing down the top seed.
Now, not.
Confused? You should be. I am. But it will all become more clear by next Monday, after the Colts play the Cowboys, the Lions play the Bears, the Packers play the Buccaneers, and (most importantly) the Seahawks face the Cardinals.