Over-Under on Brandon LaFell’s Super Bowl receiving yards set at 50.5


Once a day leading up to Super Bowl XLIX and on game day itself, we will discuss one of the many proposition bets (“props”) Nevada sports books offer on Patriots-Seahawks.

Then, we’ll turn to you and let you decide what side of the bet you would take. (Hypothetically, of course.)

We’ll call it “PFT’s Prop Challenge.” After the Super Bowl, we’ll tally the results, with each vote one hypothetical betting unit.

Then, we’ll see if PFT Planet is ready for the high-roller room at one of Terry Benedict’s casinos.

So let’s get down to business.

The first prop comes courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, which has set an Over-Under on the Super Bowl receiving yards gained by Patriots wide receiver Brandon LaFell.

The Over-Under is 50.5 yards.

Both the OVER and UNDER have the standard house vigorish, meaning bettors have to lay $11 to win $10.

Now, a few data points.

Since moving into the starting lineup in Week Three, LaFell has averaged 65.2 receiving yards per contest, exceeding 50.5 yards receiving in 11-of-16 games (including the postseason).

That’s the good news for those who like the OVER.

Now, the bad news.

Seattle has given up more than 50.5 receiving yards to just 11 wide receivers this season: Jordy Nelson, Green Bay (twice); Randall Cobb, Green Bay (twice), Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina (twice); John Brown, Arizona (twice); Emmanuel Sanders, Denver; Wes Welker, Denver; DeSean Jackson, Washington; Dez Bryant, Dallas; Terrence Williams, Dallas; Odell Beckham Jr., N.Y. Giants; Preston Parker, N.Y. Giants.

Of course, there are multiple ways to hit the OVER. Perhaps the Patriots fall behind early and have to pass throughout. Recall how pass-happy they were in the second half of the divisional-round win vs. Baltimore.

Now, the question: do you like the OVER or the UNDER on 50.5 receiving yards for Brandon LaFell? In short, does he exceed 50.5 yards or finish with less than that total?

Let us know via the poll and in the comments, and check back Saturday for the next prop, which will be Seattle-related.

40 responses to “Over-Under on Brandon LaFell’s Super Bowl receiving yards set at 50.5

  1. Seattle’s defense has given up more points in the postseason than New England’s defense.

  2. Over.

    The teams they’ve allowed over 50 yard receivers to have multiple weapons – notice GB, Denver, Dallas, and the Giants both on there twice.

    They are good at shutting down single receivers, but the Pats have enough weapons to spread it around….

  3. Under because
    1. The patriots will spread the ball around
    2. The patriots will be able to run the ball
    3. The patriots will have the lead and milk the clock
    4. The patriots defense will get turnovers and short fields making it unlikely that they will need lots of yards to win.

  4. millarddjr says:
    Jan 23, 2015 10:36 PM

    The teams they’ve allowed over 50 yard receivers to have multiple weapons – notice GB, Denver, Dallas, and the Giants both on there twice.

    They are good at shutting down single receivers, but the Pats have enough weapons to spread it around….

    Don’t make me laugh. It’s Gronkowski or bust. Edelman will get lit up a couple of times and go absent. LaFell ain’t beating Maxwell or Sherman (didn’t last year when they played, either). Amendola? Please. NE has to rely on trickery and substitution cheats to get guys open.

  5. I see what you want to do here, but I will not allow it.
    You are now acting like there is a superbowl to be played. Hell no, lets talk about deflatgate…..

  6. Yes is the majority of the votes?

    I’m convinced most people on here and on TV have stopped watching Seahawks ball.

    There was just a segment on the NFL network where they tried to make a case where the Pats had the better defense.

    Seriously, this has just gotten bad. People have lost all logic.

  7. Over. Hawks will try to go Patriots on the Patriots. Beat up Edleman in the slot with LB/Safety help. Double Gronk. Amendola will be a difference maker. If the Pats are smart, they will put Gronk wide and go two TE formation with Tim Wright having a huge impact game, 6/89/2 td

  8. Edelman will have 80+ yards Mr. Wrong from the worlds most arrogant City.

    Make sure you don’t lose yr typing skills after the game. Come back and eat yr cold crow

  9. Seattle Barely beat NE a couple years ago at home when NE had total scrubs on D.

    This is a different team, and Kearse could barely catch a cold last week.

    not in the 1top 100 WR’s in the league.

    Lynch and Wilson are the only way u guys stay in the game…
    Cracked cup Sherman can’t cover smaller quicker WR’s. We have a couple of those .
    We’ll see

  10. Seattles offense #9 New Englands offense #11.. Lets keep talking about how this game is Brady vs the LOB.. Its clear Seattle is the better team aside from one putrid offensive output last week Russells stats look better than Bradys if you add his rushing yards and rushing tds.

    LaFell will likely get just about 50 yards, but I doubt he has a huge impact on the game rather just gets a big chunk of that on one play and for the most part is not overly affective just like most all other teams wrs against the LOB. The only matchup NE has hope to exploit it Gronk but it just so happens hes going up against the best Safety tandem in the nfl. I fully expect a run heavy game plan with alot of traps and counters with Blount going one cut then down hill. Brady will get his opps but he wont be pushing the ball down field except into the seem with Gronk vs Kam or Earl.

    Will be a good game and no Im not just saying Seattle is better and that their going ot kill NE. Im just tired of hearing about NEs offense and people acting like their unstoppable and elite, their not even top 10! But all we hear about is how average Seattles offense is but their better or comparable than NE in almost every single category except passing yards.

    Just want to see a great game with two of the best and most balanced teams in football. I see Seattle having struggles early on offensively vs NE secondary and I see the opposite for Seattle playing just above average with NE have one hell of a scripted game plan early but seattle getting the better of them later on.

    I see a 7 pt win no matter who wins but Im rooting for my Hawks.

  11. We’re actually talking about the game?!?!? I thought Florio forgot that there was a football game next week. I like the over because I feel that Seattle will be more focused on Edelman and Gronk, opening LaFell up in more one on one situations.

  12. infectorman- I get it your team has improved since 2012 and seattle hasn’t.. Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds? Russell Wilson hadn’t even been given the full playbook by that game.. Also by many metrics Seattles Doug Baldwin is in the top 20 wrs in all of football. Just looking at receiving yards and catches when he plays on a team with the least attempts is about as bright as your assessment. Stats are nothing without understanding them and being objective as to how someone accumulates them.

  13. I’d take over. I see the patriots throwing the ball 40+ times, using the short passing game as a substitute for their running game. I see lafell catching quite a few shorter balls and a few nice ones over the middle

  14. allidoisiwn55:

    Where did I mention stats?
    Chuck around insults all u want, hero.

    Seattle is about the same team as last year. But seemingly less effective on offense, which will be a problem as NE’s D is a strong point this year.
    Don’t underestimate the difference in NE’s D. They were a very weak secondary a couple years ago; McCourty was not a corner and Arrington is a Nickel/reserve corner now.
    It’ll be much tougher sledding for Seattle’s receiving core this time around.

    Belichick’s unwillingness or inability to build a strong defense over the last 6-8 years is a massive failure. Considering their run of success, a couple more SB titles would have easily been doable.

    Wilson is much improved. MAYBE as much improved as NE defense. Lynch is Lynch; a major concern.

    Seattle won’t be at home. Brady had his way with Seattle D secondary for the most part; 36 completions and 395 yards. Also, Shane Vereen didn’t play in that game. He’ll be a difference maker this time around.

    Baldwin is a fierce competitor, and I love him as a player, but he can disappear for long stretches and be neutralized.

    All in all it a great match up on paper.
    It’ll come down to 2 things as it always does:
    Who wants it more and who executes.
    It ain’t rocket science

  15. So the NFL on NBC wants us to speculate on gambling on the NFL? Yeah, good idea, it’s not like the NFL isn’t already dealing with a few issues. Probably should bring gambling into it.

  16. Under. 2014 is the first year in his career that he has averaged over 50 yards/game, and he will be lining up opposite Richard Sherman for most of the day.

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