AEI’s debunking reportedly gets debunked

Getty Images

More than five months after the AFC Championship, the question of whether the Patriots deflated footballs used in the first half of the game polarizes like no other NFL issue of the last generation. The best evidence: (1) the number of comments each #DeflateGate story generates; and (2) the number of emails PFT receives from folks on both sides of the issue.

The latest battle of the bulk electronic mail centers on the work of American Enterprise Institute, which ripped apart the science of the 243-page Ted Wells report. After an initial flurry of emails pointing out the AEI report — and others alleging (incorrectly) that the Krafts who own the Patriots run the same Kraft Foundation that funds AEI — the emails are now noting that someone has taken issue with AEI’s work.  Specifically, Ben Volin of the Boston Globe has countered the AEI report countering the Wells report with the opinions of University of Vermont biostatistician Mike DeSarno.

The latest fight centers on AEI’s claim that Ted Wells and Exponent employed “an unorthodox statistical procedure at odds with the methodology the report describes.” DeSarno disputes that.

Whether the Wells report did or didn’t use an unorthodox statistical procedure doesn’t really matter to the question of whether Wells got it right. Ultimately, Wells and Exponent concluded that there had to have been tampering because the footballs used by the Patriots showed more of a drop in air pressure than the footballs used by the Colts, ignoring the fact that the footballs used by the Colts sat in a warmer environment while the 11 footballs used by the Patriots were tested twice and reinflated.

Perhaps that’s why DeSarno added, “I still don’t place any faith in [Wells’s] conclusions.”

I continue to place no faith in the conclusions, either, for one very important reason. During the 95-year history of the NFL, the question of whether air pressure inside a football changes during game conditions never registered as even a faint blip on the league’s radar screen. Officials inflated the footballs before kickoff and then they played the games, oblivious to the fact that footballs at the high end of the 12.5-to-13.5 range on a warm day would quickly rise above the limit, and to the fact that footballs at the low end on a cold day would quickly shrink below it.

Then, suddenly, the NFL gave the topic of air pressure an extreme degree of importance, treating any deviation below the minimum not as the result of atmospheric conditions but as presumptive proof that someone was cheating. The stage was set for the strings of the Commissioner to be manipulated not from above but from below, with one or more league office employees able to kick-start a process that resulted in the Wells investigation — thanks in large part to the unrebutted leak of blatantly false PSI information to ESPN.

The mere fact that Wells needed such detail and nuance to reach a conclusion shows that the results of the air pressure testing and analysis should have been deemed inconclusive for proof of cheating. Instead, Wells and Exponent massaged and tinkered and assumed and disregarded the best recollection of referee Walt Anderson just enough to find that the Patriots cheated.

The far better approach would have been to get Patriots employees John Jastremski or Jim McNally, authors of troubling text messages, to confess under aggressive questioning. The fact that neither did suggests either that Wells and company didn’t do a very good job of interrogating them, or that there was nothing for them to confess.

Regardless, an abruptly scientific approach to a topic the NFL never regarded with an eye toward science isn’t the way to find a smoking gun, especially when the science is in any way flawed.

95 responses to “AEI’s debunking reportedly gets debunked

  1. .
    A direct quote from the alleged ” debunker”

    ” I still don’t place any faith in the Wells Report ”

    PS – Can we stop with the analysis of noted Patriots haters Ron Borges and Ben Volin. They have agendas that have nothing to do with NFL football. Why not the analysis of Sally Jenkins of the Washington Post?
    .

  2. To all crygaters…Please tell us how the incompetent New England Patriots were able to defeat the mighty Seahawks defense with no cameras and an extra 0.5 PSI in the football? How is it possible Brady put up 28 points (which easily could have been 31 or 35 if he didn’t sneeze on that early pick) against the LOB?

    Keep adjusting your tin foil hats and trying to make excuses for why the Patriots keep ruining your dreams every year. We’ll just keep winning Super Bowls. Instead of doctoring up ludicrous “scandals”, here’s a tip that may help your teams: Play better football.

  3. The two weasels were involved with Brady but because Wells didn’t put them under bright lights and the Pats reinforced to them the meaning of non-disclosure and lost severance means that nothing happened. If Brady had just said I like them a little deflated and it was wrong we could all have moved on a long time ago.

  4. The far better approach would have been to get Patriots employees John Jastremski or Jim McNally, authors of troubling text messages, to confess under aggressive questioning. The fact that neither did suggests either that Wells and company didn’t do a very good job of interrogating them, or that there was nothing for them to confess.

    —————————————————

    Or that the Patriots wouldn’t make them available after the texts were discovered?

  5. Just great another click bait article to bring the Patriot lemmings defense team out in force……yawn . Never have so many said so much with little meaning over a longer period of time. Have the lemmings broken a Guiness record yet? It’s rigged… Brady gets a game off period.

  6. Why would Jastremski or McNally confess to anything? They aren’t criminal defendants trying to get a shorter sentence. They’re team employees trying to keep their jobs. Wells and the league office don’t have any leverage with them.

  7. What does it mean that there are still NE supporters taking shots at the Wells report, even after the Brady appeal? Apparently, the Brady team didn’t think enough of this debunking to include it in the hearing.

    The question is why? If it is credible and once and for all defeats the NFL argument, Brady would have used it to pile onto the mountain of evidence it has at its disposal, to once and for all, smash the Wells Report. But alas, it wasn’t used. So shy not?

    My guess is that Ben Volin and Mike Sardino prepared there own report and offered it to Brady’s team and they rejected it. So what else do you do with such in depth work product, but publish it to get attention, omitting that it wasn’t good enough for a mention in a 10 hour hearing.

    This is basically a “friend of the court brief”, that is meaningless because the defense found it useless or they would have used it.

  8. Perhaps Mike, it’s just the nations perception that the pats cheat every time they can. That the pats cheat and by that way make other teams cheat just to keep up. BTW personally I’m so sick of the never ending stream of incidents involving the pats and over the line behavior.

  9. Take away all the scientific evidence and you still have the texts and Brady’s lack of co-operation. More than enough to meet the “more probable than not standard”. Brady is lucky if he escapes with only 4 games.

  10. Honestly, I thought the AEI report over complicated itself. The biggest flaws in the Wells Report are simple and very visible. People really need to stop convincing themselves that you need an advanced understanding of math and physics to know what’s going on here.

    Mike Felger had one of the dumbest quotes of this whole mess recently and said that “almost none of us actually understand the science behind Deflategate.” Really Mike? My bike tires are softer in the winter then they are in the summer. That’s the entire practical understanding of the Ideal Gas Law in a sentence. Do yourself a huge favor. Do what Florio did, and just look at the evidence for yourself. It’s all there. Wells has nothing. This is a frame job.

  11. I sure hope nobody ever gets intercepted by the PATS,,and they check the ball…uhmmmm excuse me MR GOODELL,,,,the Packers routinely over inflate theirs per A Rodgers. So whats the deal?

  12. To those who say “if Brady had just admitted it, we could’ve moved on long ago”, you’re fooling yourselves.

    If Brady had admitted guilt, the same 31 fan bases that were enraged after the false ESPN report would have been equally enraged over Brady’s admission of “cheating” and demanded justice. A commissioner, desperate to restore credibility in wake of the Ray Rice issue, would’ve lept into action and suspended Brady for four games and Brady would still be fighting it saying that it’s inconsistent with previous punishments. Deflategate would not have simply “gone away”.

    Plus, if you never ordered the “code red”, why would you admit to doing it?

  13. minnesotablizzard says:
    Just imagine if people cared this much and spent this much time on real world issues
    ========== ============
    Never mind the real world. NFL should focus its energy on player safety.
    Here are a few players that scream attention:
    Lyle Alzado, junior Seau, Ricky Bell, Stone Jackson, Korey Stringer…… and many more who are suffering from concussion during their playing career.

    Oh wait…… Player safety doesn’t help the Billionaire’s and Roger’s bottom line……..

  14. The text messages make clear that pats personnel were deflating the balls for Brady, otherwise there would not be any anxious/nervous messages between the two equipment men and the QB. They are a giveaway, and nothing patriot diehards say to pretend their club is not an habitual cheater will change that.

  15. This is all headline and no substance. By the time you get to the end….We’re back to no deflation. If there is no “dead body” then everything else is irrelevant.

  16. “More likely than not”
    ________
    That is the standard in a case like this. Just the texts alone and the fact that they Pats and Brady stopped cooperating, or declined completely to cooperate suggest that it is more likely than not that they are guilty.

  17. When all is said and done, it simply comes down to which of the two possible conclusions people find more logical:

    1. Brady and the Dorito Dinks conspired to remove up to 0.45 psi from a few of the dozen footballs after the referees set them at 12.5 psi prior to the AFC game.

    2. Anderson’s best recollection is true.

    It doesn’t get simpler than this.

  18. This is scientist getting into semantics. The test for statistical difference that Exponent used is one that is used when you have respectable controls on the experiment and know the underlying rate (i.e. did a food type change the likelihood of birthing gender rate in a population of ruminants).

    They essentially used a dumbed-down version of a paired difference test that expects a normal distribution. It is not unorthodox in the sense that no one would ever use that methodology — It is unorthodox in that it would not be the statistical test that most statisticians would use in a low N uncontrolled experiment.

    To put it simply, we don’t know the true values, we don’t know the true underlying distribution, and we don’t know the true environmental conditions that the balls were measured it (those are all guesses albeit educated guesses).

    Exponent, to their credit, tried to reduce the confounding variables as much as possible — but the controls were not there, nor were there enough tests.

    Is it unorthodox? Who cares, word-smithing is not helpful here. Were the results and conclusions that Exponent made scientifically justifiable — no.

    The only answer you can come to is that, “The results of the pressure measurements, given the environmental changes to the objects AND the lack of baseline measurements, cannot support that one population is significantly different than the other.” Or, “There’s nothing to see here. Go back to looking at text messages.”

  19. The statistician is not debunking all of the many enormous problems that AEI found with the Wells Report.

    He is merely quibbling with AEI’s contention that a certain set of data could not be modeled to a graph by a standard method. He claims that it can be. I’m a chemist and not a statistician, so I won’t comment .

    But he is NOT disputing, AT ALL:

    -the ridiculous assumption that the ref can’t remember which gauge he used
    -the fact that this convenient “mis-remembering” serves only to make the data look slightly more suspicious
    -that the Patriots football’s measured pressure agrees with the ideal gas law
    -that the statistical difference between Colts and Patriots footballs can be easily and simply explained by the difference in the time of measurement
    -that the intercepted football’s measured pressure also agrees with the ideal gas law

  20. So now we take the word of someone, who is a Statistician per his own LinkedIn page, over real scientists? Sure, debunked.

    He has a B.S. in Electrical Engineering, and a Masters in statistics…I guess that is not the only B.S. he has.

  21. Just give up only those phone records that the NFL has requested.Brady and co. are allowed to retain possession of his phone and they would only have to furnish specific texts relevant to the inquiry.If you’re innocent, why will you not do this and relieve the football world of all this crap.I dont care what scientific studies are done and the debunking thereof.Phone records-that’s it…Whats so hard about this????

  22. Since the science is so disputed from all directions would if not it had been better for the NFL instead of making the deflategate such a big deal to instead put better controls on the balls and then under game conditions for the next year study the effects in actual real situations and then they would of been spared all this crap.
    Instead they set out of what looks more and more like a witch hunt with no baseline in actual conditions because frankly the psi in a ball was never a real issue.

  23. We’ve all been focused on underinflated balls.

    But what about all those balls used by the Dolphins in their hot and humid game-day conditions?

    The Dolphins must have known that the air temp would cause the balls to inflate while they cooked in the hot sun.

    Does this mean they cheated? Hell no!! Which goes to show how stupid this whole thing about Brady has become.

    Goodell needs to exonerate the Patriots and Brady and start from scratch with a brand new procedure for handling their balls.

  24. Long time Patriots fan from the middle of the Canadian prairies (25 years and counting).

    Even I know the Boston Globe is one of the more anti-Patriots publications available. It doesn’t matter if the story is right or wrong they publish it to sell their papers and nothing sells better than another blind swipe at the Patriots.

    Garbage paper. Garbage news source.

  25. I love this logic:

    The science doesn’t matter. The text messages and bathroom visit are proof enough of guilt.

    So if the science shows that there was no air unnaturally missing from the balls, what was McNally doing in the bathroom? His nickname was the deflator, as we’ve heard numerous times, so he must have been deflating, right? Why weren’t the balls under inflated beyond what they should have been?

    Hater logic.

  26. So basically we are saying the data is faulty in general and there isn’t a perfect way to detiremine if any intentional deflation occured. The science can’t confrim it the texts don’t confirm it. I’m not going to say the Pats are unequivocally innocent but there is nothing here that verifies the level of punsihment given. This is the league saying we think you were speeding so now you have to spend four weeks in county lockup.

  27. Maybe Wells was going to get a confession BUT the Cheats denied THAT interview, so I guess we’ll find out the truth in real court. Hope Shady can fool a lie detector test because he hasn’t fooled anyone outside of Patri*t nation

  28. The fact that there is this much debate about the accuracy report actually settles the question.

    If Brady doesn’t get the result he wants from the league and takes this to court, the uncertainty and conflicting opinions will get the majority of the report thrown out immediately. No court of law will allow such disputed evidence to be introduced. It won’t even matter who’s right.

    The NFL will be left trying to prove its case in a court of law with little more than text messages from idiots.

  29. biostatistician Mike DeSarno:

    “I still don’t place any faith in [Wells’s] conclusions.”

    Does anyone?

    I’ve personally reached the conclusion that this whole misadventure is best viewed through the following double lens:

    1) as exhibit A in the case of incompetence and mismanagement within the NFL leadership.

    2) as a study in hysteria.

    Thankfully the real life consequences to this drama are minimal.

    But it is a sobering reminder that when these two phenomena (incompetence in leadership and hysteria in the wider public) combine in the real world, the results are not pretty.

  30. Brady having an hour long conversation with “The Deflator” is the White Bronco in this case.

  31. So… America is a country that allows cheaters to retain their ill-gotten championships?!?

    Pathetic.

  32. Just give up only those phone records that the NFL has requested.Brady and co. are allowed to retain possession of his phone and they would only have to furnish specific texts relevant to the inquiry.If you’re innocent, why will you not do this and relieve the football world of all this crap.I dont care what scientific studies are done and the debunking thereof.Phone records-that’s it…Whats so hard about this????
    ==========================================

    The problem is that this is a fishing expedition. If either of the “deflators” had texted Brady or had a text from Brady — Wells would already know about it (since they were using company phones, Wells got those records).

    Since there were no text messages to Brady, what is Wells looking for? There is no basis for Brady to provide his personal phone records so that Wells can use his, apparently rampant, confirmation bias to misconstrue or purposefully twist to make his story line…

  33. Did I mis-read what DeSarno said? He said that it doesn’t matter if the science in either the Wells report or the AEI report was good, that since Wells couldn’t get Jastremski and McNally to confess everything else was moot. No where does he debunk the AEI science. AEI said they were making no conclusions about anything other than science….the fact that DeSarno thinks the science doesn’t matter (and believes that Wells’ conclusions were wrong anyway) does not debunk the AEI report. This seems to be another example of ‘let’s phrase the headline to get people to click on us even if it’s not true’.
    Even if you’re not a Patriots fan, surely you’re as tired as we are of being used and lied to by the press.

  34. 5to46hawkfan says:
    Jun 29, 2015 11:27 AM
    Maybe Wells was going to get a confession BUT the Cheats denied THAT interview, so I guess we’ll find out the truth in real court. Hope Shady can fool a lie detector test because he hasn’t fooled anyone outside of Patri*t nation

    —They denied a fifth interview…they were interviewed 4 times. And lie detector test? Really? Even if they were allowed to be used in a court of law, which they’re not, seriously, a lie detector for a deflated football?

  35. “Why not the analysis of Sally Jenkins of the Washington Post?”

    Sally Jenkins doesn’t do scientific analysis, she writes personal opinions. And she was so horribly wrong about Lance Armstrong, for so long, and unapologetic for her mistakes, she has no credibility.

  36. It’s quite obvious if one group debunks the other every time a report comes out that there is a lack of substance to this to begin with. Bottom line is that after the NFL wasted all this money on a hollow report (fluffed up so it would attempt to justify the price tag) they should have seen it for what it was and punished the Pats for partially not cooperating with a fine and called it a day. Secondly, the even bigger mistake was the leaking of false info to the press and allowing public pressure to justify their actions. In the future, regardless of what team is involved, keep the investigation quiet and then handle it in house. Report on the subject after an investigation and subsequent punishment has been levied. And call it good. Enough with the kangaroo court handling of things. It only makes the league look worse and damages team and player brands as a result and calls into question the integrity of the NFL front office and commissioner.

  37. THAT’S IT! Ben Volin and Ron Borges of the Boston Globe have settled it. WOW, haternation would start screaming “See, they cheated” if Charles Manson said it. Pretty sad. Superbowl Champions and it gets sweeter every day.

  38. unitas19 says:
    Jun 29, 2015 10:59 AM
    Just give up only those phone records that the NFL has requested.Brady and co. are allowed to retain possession of his phone and they would only have to furnish specific texts relevant to the inquiry.If you’re innocent, why will you not do this and relieve the football world of all this crap.I dont care what scientific studies are done and the debunking thereof.Phone records-that’s it…Whats so hard about this????

    —-The phone records-that’s it….here’s what’s so hard about that. Suppose some jerk, let’s say me, is unhappy with someone I work with and I text that he’s a slacker and I hope he get’s fired. He doesn’t go to work that day and he get’s fired. He has a doctor’s note saying that he had pneumonia and couldn’t go to work. You’re saying that it doesn’t matter that there are actual lab tests that show this guy had pneumonia—the only thing that matters is that I texted that he was a slacker. In other words, people can be jerks and we all text things we shouldn’t….those texts don’t always prove anything other than the fact that sometimes we post stupid things.

  39. All I can think when I see these articles is that anybody whose mustache looks like it was painted/glued on their face cannot be trusted or taken seriously.

  40. Has anyone ever watched a game and thought about air pressure? If you did, congrats, you may be the least interesting person in the world.

    I wish Goodell would stop hiding behind this “integrity” nonsense and just admit this was about making up for his Rice/Peterson/Hardy mistakes.

  41. Mike you printed a misnomer that the Colts balls where in a warmer place. The AEI claim is that there is some magical timeline that kicks in as the Colts balls get tested.

    I’m sure the Ben Volin bashing will continue. I will have you know I just recently heard him on the radio. Were he stated that he felt the Brady punishment was to strict.

  42. Wells and AEI have detractors on both sides. Suddenly the texts, ball stealing, bathroom visit, etc. are more relevant. At a minimum it gives Goodell room to stick with his initial conclusion.

    Everyone repeats DeSarno’s line about not believing in Wells, but no one reports his next sentence: “All I can tell you that the analysis method Wells used is absolutely correct, and the analysis method AEI used is incorrect.”

    Please continue to nuance and wordsmith this. . .but a Pats fan finding fault with the AEI methodology is a problem for the deniers.

  43. Fnaofpft, there is no “magical timeline”, it’s called science and is clearly displayed in the Wells Report that you obviously didn’t read. The time to equilibrium was about 14 minutes and the sharp increase is through the first ten minutes. AEI assumed the Colts balls were closer to the 10 minute mark because they were in a rush as halftime was ending, 22 Patriots balls were measured and refilled firs. How much time it took each of those 22 measurements and 11 refills, we don’t know.

    ANOVA is valid for 3 samples or more and we only have 1 and 1/3 samples, especially since we know one of the two gauges, at the very least, was wrong

  44. “Suddenly the texts, ball stealing, bathroom visit, etc. are more relevant. At a minimum it gives Goodell room to stick with his initial conclusion.”

    The texts vindicate Brady and the Ball assistants based on the Jets game texts, only Wells fails to see this.

    The ball stealing was an NFL official of a kicking ball, what’s your point?

    The bathroom visit, I don’t know, it’s a bathroom not a broom closet, I’ll bet you’ve gone to the bathroom to do something other than hurriedly release tiny amounts of air from a few footballs

  45. iammrbinky says:
    Jun 29, 2015 11:38 AM
    Brady having an hour long conversation with “The Deflator” is the White Bronco in this case.

    *******************************************

    The NFL intentionally leaked incorrect ball pressure stats to ESPN in an attempt to see what Brady and the Pats would say. If I think I am innocent but I hear this from the NFL, I sure as heck want to talk to the freakin’ ball boys and find out what the heck is going on before I have to step out in the bright lights of Super Bowl week and make statements that might actually end up being untrue, even if I have no idea how that happened.

    Some people just don’t get it….

  46. Brady having an hour long conversation with “The Deflator” is the White Bronco in this case.

    Yea too bad that never happened. The conversations were with the Ball boy Jastremski aka “dorito dink”. Brady and Mcnally never spoke on the phone or through texts. Kind of curious why Brady would never communicate with a guy who was so instrumental in this whole operation to take .4 PSI out of every football. Also, even more curious is why, if they already were actually discussing this deflation operation, the two ball boys never texted or called each other regarding the massive investigation into their alleged infraction.

    No “hey dorito dink make sure you tell them x or they’ll bust us for sure”?

    Very curious indeed

  47. 6ball says:
    Jun 29, 2015 11:08 AM
    .
    Headline : ” Goodell Announces the World is Flat. Fans in 31 NFL Cities Agree ”
    —————————-
    You do realise there are only 31 “NFL Cities” right?

  48. While the game in question was not affected by the PSI of any ball, it is disturbing to me about the culture of the Patriots, to do anything and everything that might give the team an edge. This includes actions that are or close to being over the boarder line of fair play. Besides deflategate, we had plays this season that were design to take advantage of defenses, by declaring a eligible WR, just before the play is run, in hopes of that player not being covered by the defense. These plays have now been not allowed by the league. Last week we find out that 3 teams that includes the Patriots of flying drones without proper authority (and for what reason). We have a number of teams who have mentioned over time that on critical plays their communication systems malfunctioned in Foxboro. In the past the Patriots were found guilty of spygate, filming other teams signals. The Rams have also said they believe that the Patriots had someone watching the final practice before the superbowl, and at the end of the game when they got in a unique formation designed for the game, the Patriots knew the play. There is probably more, but these are just a few things that easily come to my mind, and I find it very disturbing. Are the Patriots the only teams that do these things, probably not. The reality is that the NFL should not allow any of this, that puts into any question of the fairness of the game being played. Since the Patriots seem to continue this tradition, something needs to be done to stop this from happening in the future. Many have said this event has been blown out of proportion, and it this was a single event, I would agree, but this is not just about a single event.

  49. It would seem that once again — a headline is a distortion. The fact that Mike DeSarno has weighed in on the Wells report and the AEI – does not ‘debunk’ anything. He’s expressed an ‘opinion’ and does not provide, as far as this article reports, any study that he has done, unlike the AEI report that did.

    I do agree with this passage:

    “I continue to place no faith in the conclusions, either, for one very important reason. During the 95-year history of the NFL, the question of whether air pressure inside a football changes during game conditions never registered as even a faint blip on the league’s radar screen. Officials inflated the footballs before kickoff and then they played the games, oblivious to the fact that footballs at the high end of the 12.5-to-13.5 range on a warm day would quickly rise above the limit, and to the fact that footballs at the low end on a cold day would quickly shrink below it.

    Then, suddenly, the NFL gave the topic of air pressure an extreme degree of importance, treating any deviation below the minimum not as the result of atmospheric conditions but as presumptive proof that someone was cheating. The stage was set for the strings of the Commissioner to be manipulated not from above but from below, with one or more league office employees able to kick-start a process that resulted in the Wells investigation — thanks in large part to the unrebutted leak of blatantly false PSI information to ESPN.

    The mere fact that Wells needed such detail and nuance to reach a conclusion shows that the results of the air pressure testing and analysis should have been deemed inconclusive for proof of cheating. Instead, Wells and Exponent massaged and tinkered and assumed and disregarded the best recollection of referee Walt Anderson just enough to find that the Patriots cheated.”

    And I have said the same thing since the Wells report first came out. That they didn’t have enough accurate information from the day of the game and should have dropped the matter at that point and issued a warning to all teams instead.

    Interrogating the ball boys ‘aggressively’ until they confessed??!? LOL OMGosh – people get funnier by the minute. Yes — they should have water boarded them. Brother.

  50. The Text messages do not provide guilt, there is really nothing in there THAT ALONE points to anything. The one instance of deflator was in May, in the off season and 8 months before the AFCCG and the context truly had nothing to do with footballs or for that matter the Patriots. The two equipment guys were talking about girls. You really believe that alone this means something?

    Unless Goodell does not want to learn the truth, he needs to have an independent panel look at the science in the Wells report and also AEI. the panel needs to be truly independent and should be from 3 or more different organizations. Because no further testing needs to be done, it should not take long. Science alone can provide an unbiased assessment of what did or did not happen. If no tampering occurred, case dismissed apology owed.

  51. The Patriots are turning the NFL into “let’s see who can cheat better without getting caught” No integrity what’s so ever. Don’t teach your kids that philosophy. “If your not cheating your not trying” LOL pathetic!

    And don’t reply reminding me that other teams cheat as well. Like that matters. Like I said, don’t teach your kids to cheat because others cheat. Wait is this the Patriots way of thinking. Don’t turn your back because I will cheat every chance I get. You need to check everything we do because we can’t be trusted. Really.

  52. The Text Messages affirm what Eli Manning’s Deflators stated in their NY Times interview of 11/23/13 – that they would never leave prepared footballs unattended for a second

    The Text Messages of course never come CLOSE to saying that Brady wanted the balls tampered with – or that he wanted them below 12.5 PSI – or even AT 12.5 PSI – according to the text messages Brady wants the footballs at 13.0 PSI

    That, when combined with how far Wells and Goodell went out of their way to ignore ALL the evidence in the Patriots favor, shows that “it’s more probable than not” that the NFL crafted a sting operation that failed – and then set about framing the Patriots in a faux “investigation” that failed to investigate the NFL itself – including not just the LEAKS of false information but the fact that NFL VP David Gardi actually sent the Patriots a LETTER with false PSI info that the NFL KNEW WAS WRONG at the time

    When the Commissioner and his underlings are trying to falsely FRAME NFL teams that the former Jets President hates, the INTEGRITY of the NFL is in question

    Time for GoodellGate to hit the mainstream media – Goodell must go for the good of the game

  53. Just imagine if people cared this much and spent this much time on real world issues…
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    This is a MAJOR World Issue – Most people do not see it, and I am not talking about 0.5 psi in a football, neither does it have anything to do with the Integrity of the Game.

    The REAL ISSUES at hand is that the American People are being TESTED to see how easily their Perception of Reality can be Swayed &Controlled.

    Here are the Real Issues that you have been made not to see:
    1.) Coercion through Unchecked Rogue Authority that undermines our Foundations of Justice & Due Process
    2.) GUILTY until Proven Innocent
    3.) Arbitrary & SEVERE Punishment without sufficient evidence or substantiated discovery of facts. “More Likely than Not”
    4.) Framing & Slandering of innocent Party using the Media as you Jury
    5.) Rejecting of Scientific Evidence that does not agree with the Pre-Determined Prosecutorial Product.

  54. Brady having an hour long conversation with “The Deflator” is the White Bronco in this case.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    More like Brady realizing that he is being set up by Goodell.

    Anyone with intelligence would be talking to the ‘Deflator’ to find out everything that Well$ & the NFL are up to. Just as we have now come to know = FRAME -GATE

  55. The far better approach would have been to get Patriots employees John Jastremski or Jim McNally, authors of troubling text messages, to confess under aggressive questioning.
    ———————–
    If the NFL decides to use enhanced interrogation techniques, I hope they televise it. That would be one ugly episode of Hard Knocks.

  56. @qdog112, maybe you are correct in your comments, but I personally do not ever remember reading or even hearing about the AEI (American Enterprise Institute) or the University of Vermont biostatistician (Mike De Sarno) reports until after Brady had appeared before the NFL Commissioner. Up until that time, all I had heard about was the Well’s report and about just how one sided(Basis) the report was. So if the AEI or the Mike De Sarno reports were not available ,just how could they have possible been used by Brady or his defense team? Do not get me wrong, I did not say that either report was not available to Brady or his defense, I just said that I, had never heard or even read anything about them before Brady appeared before the Commissioner. IMHO, i believe that this whole mess was nothing more than a lot of politics, a long with a witch hunt, some B S, spin, lies and a whole lot of propaganda thrown in to make Brady and the Patriot’s look as bad as possible .

  57. What a waste of time.
    DiSarno should NOT have gone to Ben Volin. He should have gone to the authors of the AEI report. He claims that he was able to replicate the numbers that Exponent found.
    Doubtless there is a difference in meaning between what AEI is saying and what DiSarno _thinks_ they are saying.

    REGARDLESS, it is simply inaccurate to say that the AEI report is “debunked”. It makes several arguments and the core of its argument does not depend on whether Exponent’s software came up with the right numbers or not.

    It shouldn’t take more than 24 hours for this to be cleared up.

  58. The far better approach would have been to get Patriots employees John Jastremski or Jim McNally, authors of troubling text messages, to confess under aggressive questioning. The fact that neither did suggests either that Wells and company didn’t do a very good job of interrogating them, or that there was nothing for them to confess.
    ————————————————-

    Has it occurred to anyone that there is another very plausible reason for Jastremski & McNally remaining silent?

    It’s called fraud. It may also be called tax evasion.

    What exactly happened to all those inscribed & autographed practice balls Brady gave to them to “help them out”?

    I mention this because Brady is on record as saying he would inscribe these balls in any way requested of him.

    The fraud could only be proven if the balls were sold as being described as anything other than a practice ball. The tax evasion could be extremely damaging to both Jastremski & McNally if they failed to report the sales as income.

    If Brady claims he was not aware of what was happening with these practice balls I sure would like an explanation on how a used football (in Brady’s own words) would “help them out”.

    So how about it Tommy-Boy? Have you got anything to say now?

  59. Re-reading the comments by DeSarno, I wish we had a comment from Hassett, Sullivant, and Veuger.

    DeSarno says

    “I totally expected to see that I couldn’t replicate the Wells Report, either,” DeSarno said. “But I was kind of surprised that once I ran my standard analysis method, it matched Wells exactly.

    “The first model I tried, based on the usual model I use for this data, worked immediately. So I don’t know why [AEI] didn’t use that model.”

    The issue here is which model is used. The trio from AEI found that they could not replicate the results with the model suggested by Exponent, but by changing some of the inputs, they could get the result.

    They say “This equation suggests that a multiple regression analysis was performed. But when we estimate
    the regression described in the report, the results
    are quite different from those reported by the
    authors. After some trial and error, though, we
    were able to replicate almost all of the results
    presented. ‘

    It shouldn’t be considered a great surprise that somebody else could replicate the results. DeSarno’s comment would be much more useful if he provided more details than “the first model I tried”.

    Does DeSarno disagree with the statement “The precision with which all but two of our table 1
    estimates match those of the Wells report renders
    it extraordinarily unlikely that our attempts to
    replicate the data presented in table A-2 of the
    Wells report used anything but the same analysis
    used to generate those values in the report”?

    Did DeSarno’s default settings stumble into the correct settings to correspond to what the AEI trio had to find after much searching?

    I personally don’t have access to this software, but it shouldn’t be all that hard to figure out.

    Regardless, the first 6 pages of the AEI report aren’t what are really important. The real meat of the report is in the section “Can Ambient Temperature Changes Explain the Difference between the Patriots and Colts Balls?”

    The answer is an unequivocal “yes”.

  60. The texts did not talk about deflating footballs. Just the opposite. They talked about INFLATING them. They said they were pissed at Brady for being so upset that the balls were hard as a rock. The two then start talking about how they’re gonna be watermelons or rugby balls or balloons the next time. That’s talking about over inflating not deflating. And it’s also called hyperbole.

    Oh, he said he was the “deflator”. Is it possible that’s his nickname because he’s the guy that takes the new footballs that the league provides and breaks them in for the QB making them softer and more worn? You know. Deflating them?

  61. bigbenh8tr says:
    Jun 29, 2015 10:27 AM

    Too funny. Suck on that Pats fans
    __________________________________

    Thanks for exposing yourself as someone who only reads headlines.

    The person debunking the AEI report still calls Wells and Exponent’s data set flawed and as noted from the quote in Florio’s piece: “Perhaps that’s why DeSarno added, “I still don’t place any faith in [Wells’s] conclusions.”

    When someone defending your methodology calls your data set crap that’s pretty telling.

  62. @fanofpft

    Did you read the AEI report?

    From the AEI report under the section ‘Can Ambient Temperature Changes Explain the Pressure Difference between the Patriots and Colts balls?

    “The Wells report also documents that the temperature of the surrounding environment influences the internal pressure of a football even over very short time intervals. The report notes, for instance, that the 0.7 PSI impact on a football of “vigorous rubbing” dissipates after a window of roughly 15–30 minutes. And a chart on page 31 of the Exponent section of the Wells report shows pronounced effects of air temperature on ball pressure in a span of what appears to be roughly 15 minutes (Wells Jr., Karp, and Reisner 2015, 31).”

    So – fanofpft – the information that AEI presents explaining how the psi changes from temperature changes and the time it takes to do that, came from the WELLS report!

    The problem is that no one noticed that the Colts balls sat around for almost 15 minutes inside before they measured them. There is no question that 15 minutes in a warm room can change the psi of the balls.

  63. 5to46hawkfan says:
    Jun 29, 2015 11:27 AM
    Maybe Wells was going to get a confession BUT the Cheats denied THAT interview, so I guess we’ll find out the truth in real court. Hope Shady can fool a lie detector test because he hasn’t fooled anyone outside of Patri*t nation
    _____________________________

    NFL Security interviewed him 4 times and Wells interviewed him once more after that. Trust me, as a professional investigator if they didn’t get an admission through that they weren’t going to.

    And the fact remains that someone in the NFL offices leaked McNally’s name to the press and a reported showed up at his home. McNally actually cited that as one of the reasons he would not meet with Wells again.

    The deeper you look into this the more clear it becomes that Wells had a predetermined agenda.

  64. @ecppeaters

    Deflategate is still in appeal and no final determination has been given about whether the Patriots cheated except in the mind of many NFL fans.

    The ineligible players – were not illegal plays and they were not fined. And they ran the same play what about 3 or 4 times in that game? Shouldn’t Harbaugh been prepared after the first one?

    What does using drones got to do with anything? It’s a new technology and they were using them to take their own practices. So what is wrong with that? Plus there are two other teams doing the same thing, but it’s only the Patriots doing it that you object to?

    The Headsets not working – from your team cheats dot com….

    “…. it’s a common complaint around the NFL. In late, close games, the helmet communicators of visiting teams suddenly “malfunction” and stop working. It has been accepted as standard practice in the league. Are you on the road and the game is close? Then you are going to have problems with your headset.

    In recent years, the Patriots have accused the Colts of doing it and the Jaguars have made the same charge of the Patriots. The Redskins accused the Buccaneers of disabling their headsets, and Tampa Bay accused Dallas. The Giants openly bragged about doing it way back in 1956. The charges go on and on and on.”

  65. @ecppeaters

    I’d like you to take special note of this complaint that you have because it’s interesting that seven years after the fact, people are still suggesting this is true when it is completely false. The accusation was made in Feb of 2008 and the apology in the Herald on the front page was run in May 2008, but people only paid any attention when the accusation was made. Sound familiar?

    The Rams accuse the Patriots of taping their walkthrough before a game.

    from your team cheats dot com…

    “In 2008, the local Boston tabloid, The Boston Herald reported — citing an unnamed and unverified source — that the Patriots had videotaped the St. Louis Rams’ February 2002 walkthrough practice prior to Super Bowl XXXVI. The allegation was vehemently denied by head coach Belichick and the Patriots. The Boston Herald later acknowledged its error saying “we now know that this report was false.” The paper issued a front page apology for running the story without sufficiently verifying its source or the charges (page scan for posterity.)

    NFL commissioner and former Jets public relations intern Roger Goodell, after meeting with Patriots video man Matt Walsh and 50 other people, cleared the Patriots of any wrongdoing saying “we were able to verify that there was no Rams walkthrough tape” and “No one asked him [Matt Walsh] to tape the walkthrough. He’s not aware of anybody else who may have taped the walkthrough. He had not seen such a tape. He does not know of anybody who says there is a tape.”

  66. @rcosborne59

    Exactly what I was thinking when I first heard the accusation. That the NFL had no record of having measured the balls consistently during game conditions by which to evaluate the psi of the footballs in the AFC game. They didn’t CARE about the psi of the footballs. Actually, there is no study done that backs up the rules that any psi outside of the range the NFL rules require, gives an advantage and should be illegal.

  67. @pocketsstraight

    If there is no scientific evidence that is reliable about whether the balls were intentionally deflated or not, then there is no case. Because it certainly is possible to scientifically determine whether they were or not, but the NFL flubbed the investigation.

    The AEI – does more than simply prove scientifically that the balls deflated from temperature changes, it also shows from the WELLS reports on content, that the Wells investigators attempted to manipulate the data to make the Patriots appear guilty. It establishes a lot that points to the guilt not of the Patriots but of the NFL investigation.

    Either way – With no evidence of ball tampering the text messages are irrelevant.

  68. @ Patskrieg

    The AEI over complicated itself?

    I read it, I found it to the point, clear, understandable and brief, reading only eleven pages vs 243 pages of the Wells report. And no one can doubt that when the Wells investigation presented this ‘novel’ of a report, that they expected that very very few people would read the report and would therefore not only not know what they did that was out of line, but that the general public would simply accept their conclusions, especially in light of how NFL fans already felt about the Patriots.

    The report is just as much a review of what the NFL execs and the Well investigators did that was unprofessional. Not an insignificant matter and certainly should have bearing on the findings and conclusions.

  69. josephwcool says:
    Jun 29, 2015 11:29 AM
    But it is a sobering reminder that when these two phenomena (incompetence in leadership and hysteria in the wider public) combine in the real world, the results are not pretty.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    This scandal created by Goodell, the NFL and Others was designed to perform as a TEST upon the American People.

    The TEST served a threefold purpose:

    A.) to see exactly how easy it is to influence the Perception of Reality in the minds of the average person and how long that Perception can be maintained.

    B.) to see if there would rise up a voice(s) of Reason and Logic against the corrupt procedures and framing of the accused.

    c.) to see what measure of Disdain/Rebellion against Authoritarian Rule would be voiced publicly – should it occur.

  70. @tennfan

    The AEI report came out the week before the appeal. It’s dated June 2015. I read it before the appeal and was expecting Tom Brady’s attorneys to use it as further justification for vacating the penalties.

  71. deep64blue says: Take away all the scientific evidence and you still have the texts and Brady’s lack of co-operation
    =============================

    Yeah that sure makes Brady look guilty…

    … especially when you ignore the fact that the FOOTBALLS WERE NOT DEFLATED!!!

    Seriously, do the haters not realized how warped and obsessed they sound???

    Even when forced to accept that there was no unusual deflation they’ve got some twisted logic that compels them to assume Brady cheated

    So can you haters explain how Brady RE-INFLATED the footballs to confound this Fail of a sting by the NFL?

  72. Anyone else think Ted Wells kind of looks like Key from key & Peele? That could be a hilarious skit for the season opener if one of them thinks of it!

  73. Let me make this very clear. The two fall guys will never have to buy a drink in a boston bar as long as they live. Who cares about lieing to ted wells. Whats he gonna do get them fired ?
    Now … lieing to the fbi is entirely different … good thing the fbi wasnt asked to be involved. Mere mention of interstate gambling and attempt to change the out come of the game along with possible mafia ties. Fbi would be all over it.
    Guess what … nobody asked the fbi soooooo the ball inflaters get to lie and we get to keep poking each other with verbal jabs in the comments section.

  74. “WHOOPS! That’s right! Ron Borges got fired from the Boston Globe for plagiarism.”

    ———————————

    Classic!

    Maybe the funniest part is that an online reader pointed out the plagiarism in a message board that prompted the investigation!

    Will ya look at that. One in a hundred billion messages on a message board actually mean something!

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to leave a comment. Not a member? Register now!