PFT’s Week Eight picks

AP

Seven weeks in, it’s a dead heat. By trusting the Giants to beat the Cowboys, MDS finally closed the one-game gap, giving us an identical record in the picks contest through seven weeks.

This week, we disagree on two of the 14 games. And they’re two of the better games of Sunday.

Scroll down for more. But before you do, I’m required by law (or at least by habit) to point out that MDS was 10-4 last week, and I was 9-5. For the year, we’re knotted at 68-37 (64.7 percent).

Dolphins at Patriots

MDS’s take: The Dolphins look like a totally different team under Dan Campbell than they looked under Joe Philbin. But even this new and improved Dolphins team isn’t good enough to win at New England.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 30, Dolphins 20.

Florio’s take: The Dolphins have dramatically reversed an early-season slide that got its head coach fired. And if they get blown out by the Patriots after wins over the Titans and Texans, the new vibe under Dan Campbell will be tested. So maybe they won’t get blown out, but they’re not ready to shock the Patriots — especially after the league once again poked the bear with its #DeflateGate legal filing.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 27, Dolphins 23.

Lions at Chiefs

MDS’s take: Big surprise, London gets another terrible football game. The Lions’ offense will show some new wrinkles with a new coordinator, but the Chiefs are a better team in all three phases of the game and will pull it out in the fourth quarter. A loss in London and a fall to 1-7 on the season will raise major questions about Jim Caldwell’s job security.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 28, Lions 20.

Florio’s take: Was it wise for the Lions to change offensive coordinators six days before a game in London? Probably not. Will they beat the Chiefs in London? Probably not. Will the Lions make the sweeping changes needed after the season to finally become consistently relevant? Probably not.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 27, Lions 20.

Buccaneers at Falcons

MDS’s take: The Falcons may not be a great team, but they keep beating bad teams. They’ll do it again on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 20.

Florio’s take: An upset here isn’t out of the question, given that the Falcons have looked sloppy and uninspired over the last few games. But it will be difficult if not impossible for a young team to quickly overcome blowing a 24-0 lead to the Washington You-Like-Thats.

Florio’s pick: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 17.

Chargers at Ravens

MDS’s take: Before the season, this looked like a battle of potential AFC playoff teams. Now it looks like a battle of potential first overall pick teams. One area where the Ravens have a clear advantage is special teams, and I see a special teams play making the difference in a close game here.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 28, Chargers 24.

Florio’s take: Finally, the Ravens play a West Coast team without having to travel to the West Coast. If they can’t win this one against a demoralized Chargers team, the Ravens should just move back to Cleveland.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 30, Chargers 24.

Vikings at Bears

MDS’s take: The Vikings are a bit like the Falcons: Not as good a team as their record suggests, but consistent enough to beat the bad teams. They should do it again in Chicago on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 21, Bears 20.

Florio’s take: The Vikings won at Soldier Field only once since 2000. They last won there when Adrian Peterson was a rookie. With the team’s most dynamic offensive rookie since Peterson (Stefon Diggs) stepping up in recent weeks, it could be time for Peterson to get his second career there.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 24, Bears 20.

Cardinals at Browns

MDS’s take: Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald and Chris Johnson are all showing they have more left than a lot of people thought. They’ll keep that going in Cleveland, whose defense just doesn’t have the personnel to keep up with the Cardinals’ big-play offense.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 31, Browns 17.

Florio’s take: The Cardinals continue to rough up on the mediocre teams on their schedule, as they wait for teams like the Seahawks, Packers, Bengals, and Vikings to bubble up on the slate.

Florio’s pick: Cardinals 30, Browns 20.

Titans at Texans

MDS’s take: This is an ugly game between two bad teams, and yet the winner will have every reason to believe they’re right in the thick of things in the AFC South. I think the Texans will manage to pull out a close win.

MDS’s pick: Texans 17, Titans 16.

Florio’s take: The team that used to be in Houston returns to face the team that currently is in Houston and everyone in Houston likely wishes they both would go away from Houston.

Florio’s pick: Texans 23, Titans 14.

Giants at Saints

MDS’s take: The Saints’ defense is still a mess, but their offense has really played well, and Drew Brees appears to be healthy. I think New Orleans will put enough points on the board to take this one.

MDS’s pick: Saints 31, Giants 27.

Florio’s take: The up-and-down Giants visit the down-and-up Saints, and since the Giants beat the Cowboys after losing to the Eagles, the Giants are due to lose again. The Saints have found their footing post-Jimmy Graham, with an offensive that has suddenly diversified.

Florio’s pick: Saints 30, Giants 21.

Bengals at Steelers

MDS’s take: The return of Ben Roethlisberger makes this one interesting, but the Bengals are playing the best football in the division this season and will win a close one, taking a surprising 3.5-game lead in the AFC North.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 24, Steelers 21.

Florio’s take: The Bengals may be 6-0 in 2015, but the Steelers are 6-2 all time against Andy Dalton. And the Steelers desperately need this one, if they have any hope of repeating as division champs. With Big Ben coming back, it’s time for one of the five remaining undefeated teams to pick up an “L”.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 20, Bengals 17.

49ers at Rams

MDS’s take: I love the young players on the Rams’ defense, and I think their pass rush is going to cause Colin Kaepernick fits. The Rams will take an early lead and then grind it out with Todd Gurley.

MDS’s pick: Rams 21, 49ers 7.

Florio’s take: Last year, the 49ers were good. Which made the Rams focus a little more on beating them. This year, the 49ers aren’t good. Which could made the Rams complacent. Even if the Rams are complacent, they’re good enough to win this one.

Florio’s pick: Rams 24, 49ers 13.

Jets at Raiders

MDS’s take: The Raiders are getting better, and I’m excited to see the matchup of Darrelle Revis on Amari Cooper. But I think Oakland’s offense is going to struggle to move the ball against the excellent Jets’ defense, and as long as Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t make too many mental mistakes, the Jets will win.

MDS’s pick: Jets 23, Raiders 20.

Florio’s take: It’s one of the best games of the day, and the winner will be in the thick of the playoff picture. If the Raiders perform like they did against the Chargers, they should win. Besides, a loss to the Patriots tends to stick to the team’s biggest rivals.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 24, Jets 20.

Seahawks at Cowboys

MDS’s take: If Tony Romo were playing, this would be a great game. With Matt Cassel at the helm, it’s hard to see the Cowboys keeping it close. The Seahawks’ defense will shut the Cowboys’ offense down and Seattle will win easily.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 24, Cowboys 10.

Florio’s take: If the Cowboys weren’t in the NFC East, a fifth loss could doom them. But they can drop yet another and still make a run at the crown once both Dez Bryant and Tony Romo are back. Which is the only good news for Dallas, because the Seahawks have started to turn the corner.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 21, Cowboys 17.

Packers at Broncos

MDS’s take: Both teams are undefeated, but there’s a big difference between them: The Broncos are winning solely with their defense, while the Packers are playing good football on both sides of the ball. That’s why Green Bay wins this one.

MDS’s pick: Packers 21, Broncos 14.

Florio’s take: The 6-0 Broncos will play three of the other four 6-0 teams, starting with the Packers. Which means the Broncos will play three teams that can take full advantage of offensive flaws that teams like the Chiefs, Raiders, Browns weren’t able to fully exploit.

Florio’s pick: Packers 31, Broncos 20.

Colts at Panthers

MDS’s take: The Colts are heading into a tough stretch in their schedule, which means they’re heading into a long losing streak. The Panthers will put plenty of pressure on Andrew Luck and win this one without much trouble.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 24, Colts 14.

Florio’s take: It feels like it’s time for the Panthers to lose one. But it also feels like the Colts are inching toward a full-blown free fall. Carolina has managed to keep a major chip on its shoulder despite being 6-0, and that chip will serve the Panthers well in their second straight prime-time game.

Florio’s pick: Panthers 27, Colts 17.

83 responses to “PFT’s Week Eight picks

  1. Colts are done. I’d say stick a fork in them, but they’re so soft it would just fall over, like you were trying to put it in whipped cream or marshmallow fluff. I also missed lunch today.

  2. Chargers vs Ravens is a battle between a stoppable force vs a movable object. I’m not entirely sure which side is which in that contest.

    Chargers 20
    Ravens 14

  3. I think the Bengals will split the series with the Steelers, but my guess is that the Bengals will win this one due to Roethlisberger coming back off of an injury. Should be a good game, though. AFCN rivalry games usually are.

  4. Chargers traveling Eastward on the time-change weekend (Fall back). Not as bad will only lose two hours instead of three but the Ravens will rout the Chargers. One of the worst defensive units in the NFL, a dark cloud hanging over the franchise’s stability due to talks of moving to LA, and the Ravens getting some home cooking to relieve many frustrations. Long day ahead on Sunday for the Chargers.

  5. Fins could have been a trap for Pats until Roger stepped up to help Brady again – dude needs to invent a scam to even things out…

  6. Thank god my Bills dont play this week……dont think I can handle another Wrecks Ryan weekly debacle…….

  7. I don’t think this will be a good week for either of you. I have a feeling that towing the line and picking all the favorites will not be a winning week 8 strategy.

  8. Here come the viking fans telling us how the Broncos have the most awesome defense ever in the history of football and there’s no way the Packers can beat them. It will be fun to see what they say on Monday morning. And I’m just grateful that we all get to watch two extremely skilled teams playing on national TV.

    It will also be fun to watch Blair Walsh try to kick PATs on the turf at Soldier Field.

  9. I’m absolutely stunned Florio picked the Steelers over the Bengals [insert-sarcastic-faux-stunnedfaced-emoji]

  10. Interresting. Just by picking favorites you guys would go 66-37. I guess it’s to your credit that you hit the two games that were PICK.

  11. How you both picked the Browns to score double digit points against a top defense is beyond me. That offense is as awful as they come. 31-6 Arizona.

  12. All teams will lose at least one game this season. Nobody is going undefeated. Of course, there will be the standard overreaction and how that team is now exposed.

  13. The Packers defense looks good because they haven’t played anyone with an offense other than San Diego and they put 500 plus yards on them. Manning, Thomas and Sanders will shred that secondary. Green Bay will be exposed as the Lambeau Ref loving posers they are in this game. Denver by 10.

  14. Don’t have a warm and fuzzy feeling about this game in NOLA. And I refuse to use the term “trap” game as this doesn’t really apply to this season’s Giants team. I apologize in advance to my fellow fans but I have seen this before.

    Here’s to hoping things come out differently this Sunday.

  15. Has anyone seen Rothlisburger since he started practicing again? It looks like the steelers have him on a strict cheeseburger and ice cream diet. The dude has more chins than a Chinese phone book……

  16. shaggymarrs says:
    Oct 29, 2015 9:46 AM
    No way the Packers are getting past the Broncos’ defense. #OrangeCrush2.0

    The Broncos haven’t played a team with a real QB yet.

    These are still the same guys on D that Brady torched last season, look for Rogers to do the same. I don’t care if it’s a new D coach, Wade Phillips AKA Elmer Fudd isn’t all that.

  17. The Bears were notoriously bad coming off of bye weeks under both Lovie and Trestman. As a fan, I’m hoping Fox and Co. reverse that trend and they come out sharp from the get go. If nothing else, at least the Bears are reasonably healthy now for literally the first time all season.

  18. Carl Gerbschmidt
    Oct 29, 2015, 8:53 AM CDT
    Here come the viking fans…..
    ——-
    Your team is 6-0 and playing another 6-0 team. And all you can think about is the Vikings. Strange.

    Also, I didn’t see any Vikings fans posting yet…

  19. If there is no garbage time, Denver’s offense will be lucky to kick a couple field goals against a solid Packers defense.

    But I think there will be garbage time. Final score Packers 31 – Denver 17.

  20. I am all jacked up for Monday night. Can’t wait to see Neck Beard with a green uniform in the 4th quarter from all the sacks and hits.

    Can Newton > Andrew Luck

    #KeepPounding

  21. I agree with most of the picks except I got the Steelers over the Bengals 20 to 13 and Chargers over the Ravens 31 to 24. As for tonight’s game I think Patriots will win 38 to 31.

  22. The Seahawks have turned a corner? Could’ve fooled me. They have just as many wins (legitimate wins at least) as the struggling Cowboys. Everyone knows they lost to Detroit save for a bogus non call at the end of the game. But they were good last year and the year before so let’s keep them up on a pedestal. That game will be a lot more difficult than you think. Expect a fairly low scoring defensive struggle.

  23. The Broncos haven’t played a team with a real QB yet.

    These are still the same guys on D that Brady torched last season, look for Rogers to do the same. I don’t care if it’s a new D coach, Wade Phillips AKA Elmer Fudd isn’t all that.
    ___________________

    Since we’re talking about last season, lets take a look at how Rodgers performed on the road against good defenses in 2014.

    Wk 1 at Sea – 23-33, 189 yds, 1 td, 1 int
    Wk 3 at Det – 16-27, 162 yds, 1 td, 0 int
    Wk 15 at Buf – 17-42, 185 yds, 0 td, 2 int
    NFCCG at Sea – 19-34, 178, 1 td, 2 int

    55% comp, 178 yds avg, 3 td, 5 int

    And that was with healthy RBs and Jordy Nelson…

  24. justintuckrule says:
    Oct 29, 2015 9:43 AM
    You guys need to start picking with spreads. Seriously.
    ———————————————————————
    Well, they are stating the predicted game score, so they sort of are picking with spreads, they just don’t grade their performance against the spread. I wouldn’t expect a network with NFL broadcast rights to allow overt gambling talk by their employees.

  25. jim699 says:

    If there is no garbage time, Denver’s offense will be lucky to kick a couple field goals against a solid Packers defense.

    But I think there will be garbage time. Final score Packers 31 – Denver 17.

    You do realize that the Packers beat 4 terrible teams – Bears, Seahawks, Chiefs, and Chargers – by 10 or less points? And they only beat the Rams and 49ers by 14 points. And you expect them to blow out the Broncos so badly that they only score in garbage time?

  26. The Packers defense looks good because they haven’t played anyone with an offense other than San Diego and they put 500 plus yards on them. Manning, Thomas and Sanders will shred that secondary. Green Bay will be exposed as the Lambeau Ref loving posers they are in this game. Denver by 10.

    The 2015 version of Paton Manning couldn’t shred soggy bread if his life depended on it, you have to be able to throw the ball more than 30 yards. I wouldn’t rule out the Pack loosing, especially if Denver can get a defensive TD (which they’ve needed in virtually every game to win). It will be a defensive struggle, final score, Packers 16, Broncos 6.

  27. I know they’ve been a debacle, but the Colts will win Monday night. Take them money line! You can thank me later…

  28. I had to read this a couple of times to get it but it’s true.
    ======================================
    Florio’s take: The team that used to be in Houston returns to face the team that currently is in Houston and everyone in Houston likely wishes they both would go away from Houston.

  29. Colts win on MNF?

    LOL.

    Are they playing someone from the AFCS? No?

    On a related note, I’m kinda sick. Can I sub in for Luck? I’m younger than old man hasselback and I will throw fewer interceptions than Luck. I’m also a cheaper add in fantasy.

  30. You do realize that the Packers beat 4 terrible teams – Bears, Seahawks, Chiefs, and Chargers – by 10 or less points? And they only beat the Rams and 49ers by 14 points. And you expect them to blow out the Broncos so badly that they only score in garbage time?

    ————————————————————–

    All of those teams have a qb that can throw the ball downfield. The Broncos do not. Take away the pick sixes and how many touchdowns have the Broncos scored this year?

    Josh McCown threw on the Broncos D. Aaron Rodgers certainly will and he will do it without throwing a pick-six.

  31. “inbillwetrust says:
    Oct 29, 2015 9:41 AM
    DOES ANYBODY REMEMBER WHEN TOM BRADY WAS NOT THE GREATEST QB OF ALL TIME????

    ME NEITHER”

    Hmmmm maybe when he was on the bench behind Bledsoe??

    Maybe week 15 in the 2013 season when Michael Thomas – signed off the 49ers practice squad & had no practice snaps with the team – intercepts Brady in the end zone to seal a Dolphins victory.

    or 2014, when Brady lost not one, but 2 strip sacks by Wake in a 33-20 loss to the Phins.

    Brady is a great QB, but he definitely has his moments!

  32. losangelesbillsofbuffalo says:
    Oct 29, 2015 9:56 AM

    How you both picked the Browns to score double digit points against a top defense is beyond me. That offense is as awful as they come. 31-6 Arizona.

    Well the Browns did score 20 points against the top rated defense Denver 2 weeks ago so………

  33. jchipwood says:
    Oct 29, 2015 10:33 AM
    Dolphins already down 14 – 0 to Patriots. 7 from the refs. 7 from whatever cheating is going on.
    ——————————
    Add another 7 for owning all the mental realestate in their opponents and haters heads.

  34. The 2015 version of Paton Manning couldn’t shred soggy bread if his life depended on it, you have to be able to throw the ball more than 30 yards. I wouldn’t rule out the Pack loosing, especially if Denver can get a defensive TD (which they’ve needed in virtually every game to win). It will be a defensive struggle, final score, Packers 16, Broncos 6.

    I generally agree but for the fact that you seem to think the Packers offense is only marginally better than the Ravens, Lions and the Browns.

    The Green Bay Packers, injuries and all, will score some points. The Broncos offense will struggle and they won’t be bailed out by defensive tds.

  35. nepatriot1 says:
    Oct 29, 2015 11:16 AM
    jchipwood says:
    Oct 29, 2015 10:33 AM
    Dolphins already down 14 – 0 to Patriots. 7 from the refs. 7 from whatever cheating is going on.
    ——————————
    Add another 7 for owning all the mental realestate in their opponents and haters heads.

    ________________________________________
    mental real estate? That’s just as clever as a Belichick game plan minus the cheating.

  36. The Falcons will look dominant this weekend as the Bucs now have the reputation of making most of their opponents look…

    An exceptionally bad hc and a poor QB will keep the Bucs doomed!

  37. The Almighty Cabbage says:
    Oct 29, 2015 11:31 AM

    If “Good Jay” shows up, the Bears will beat the Vikings handily.

    If “Bad Jay” shows up, the Vikings will squeak by.

    If “Meh Jay” shows up, the Bears will squeak by.
    __________________________________

    Bears couldn’t win even if Walter Payton showed up.

  38. Florio’s take: It’s one of the best games of the day,
    …………………
    Eh, nah. More like they’ve both had easy schedules. Neither of these teams are that good. The jets may make the playoffs, but only because this is a year when 8-8 might get you in.

  39. schmitty2 says: Oct 29, 2015 11:14 AM

    losangelesbillsofbuffalo says:
    Oct 29, 2015 9:56 AM

    How you both picked the Browns to score double digit points against a top defense is beyond me. That offense is as awful as they come. 31-6 Arizona.

    Well the Browns did score 20 points against the top rated defense Denver 2 weeks ago so………
    ……………………..
    Because of 3 Peyton Manning picks.

  40. As a Ravens fan I loved the comment about if they don’t win this one they should go back to Cleveland however, I think if you put both teams together you still don’t have one that could be New England or Green Bay this year. We Ravens fans can weather this as after they started rebuilding after winning the super bowl it was just a matter of time. Cincinatti sucked for years and years, how do you think they got all that talent. The Ravens can bring it back in one year.

  41. All comments on every story this year are filled with “team X hasn’t played anyone yet”. Pick any team and it’s basically true. There are about five good teams, and the rest are mediocre to bad. It’s almost impossible for any team to have played good teams, but that doesn’t mean the good teams are bad.

  42. tjacks7 says:
    Oct 29, 2015 10:48 AM
    jim699 says:

    If there is no garbage time, Denver’s offense will be lucky to kick a couple field goals against a solid Packers defense.

    But I think there will be garbage time. Final score Packers 31 – Denver 17.

    You do realize that the Packers beat 4 terrible teams – Bears, Seahawks, Chiefs, and Chargers – by 10 or less points? And they only beat the Rams and 49ers by 14 points. And you expect them to blow out the Broncos so badly that they only score in garbage time?

    ———–

    The Seahawks are definitely not terrible. And since you don’t seem to remember, the Bears and Chiefs only did score in garbage time. Regardless, since when is beating a team by two scores some sign of awfulness?

  43. “Dolphins already down 14 – 0 to Patriots. 7 from the refs. 7 from whatever cheating is going on.”

    Whining Fins fan already making excuses for his wretched team before the game is even played.

    Lolz by the way you better check the history of your team. The Fins cheating history is long and extensive, going to back to the original NFL huge scandal, tampering to get Coach Shula and having to give up a first round pick to Baltimore for doing so. By the standards of your own posts, that “taints” everything the Fins achieved under him.

  44. Xin

    We Ravens fans can weather this as after they started rebuilding after winning the super bowl it was just a matter of time.
    =============================

    unless they give flacco even more money

    man that contract is kiliing them

  45. I don’t have any issue with the pick of the Steelers over the Bengals, but it won’t be because their D holds the Bengals offense to 17 points. The only way the Steelers win is a shootout, their D is below average.

  46. Saints seem prime for a let down. Saints defense is really starting to come around, but they seem to thrive on sacks and turnovers. Eli Manning is not getting sacked or throwing picks this year, so thats not good.
    Still the Giants dont have the muscle to play smashmouth, and those are the type of teams that give the Saints fits.
    If the defense can keep playing like its been they should be able to pull this one out, and at 4-4 we’re talking playoffs baby.
    Whodat!!!

  47. You do realize that the Broncos beat 4 terrible teams – Browns, Lions, Chiefs, and Ravens & 2 mediocre teams, Raiders/Vikings. And their biggest point spread was 12 against the Lions.

    And you expect them to win now that they finally have to play a playoff team? SMDH.

  48. If Ben plays (big if), he goes down for several more games. Bengals win tough one either way, & go 7-0. So, PIT would be wiser to keep him out another week and knock off the rust (and a few of the recent extra pounds).

  49. I totally disagree with the both of you idiots on the Seahawks -Cowboys game. The Cowboys will upset the Seahawks, because the Seahawks don’t have any offense. The only weapon is Jimmy Graham, Lynch is overrated. Cowboys squeeze out a must win Cowboys 23 Seahawks 17. How About Them Cowboys, Super Bowl Bound! !

  50. I have much respect for Pittsburgh, and they could well hand the Bengals their first loss. But the fact is, win or lose, that Cincinnati is the better team with better personnel on both sides of the ball. Andy Dalton, with all the weapons healthy, is coming into his own. I am a lifelong Bengals fan – since 1970 – but an impartial assessment causes me to lean toward Cincy, 31-27.

  51. If the Packers beat Denver Sunday night, Vikings fans around here will have run out of excuses.

    There will be no alternative but to genuflect at the ring of Vince Lombardi and admit they are grasshoppers at the altar of the titans.

    … or they’ll keep slipping further and further into massive denial.

  52. Since Washington was left out, here is my analysis
    Arizona 24
    Washington 31
    Arizona has looked off and on all season and Washington has the better coach, and playing at home with some possible ugly weather approaching.

  53. jimmysee says:
    Oct 29, 2015 7:56 PM

    If the Packers beat Denver Sunday night, Vikings fans around here will have run out of excuses.

    There will be no alternative but to genuflect at the ring of Vince Lombardi and admit they are grasshoppers at the altar of the titans.

    … or they’ll keep slipping further and further into massive denial.
    ———————————————————
    What excuses does the purple fan base come up with? You would think the most of the packer fans on this website are secret closet vikings fan with the need to bring them up at every moment, enjoy that that your team is undefeated, it wont last forever as history tells us. Id say that from a outsider opinion that the vikings have closed the talent gap with the packers and could play two close games this season.

  54. Giants probably shouldn’t win this week, which means they will win. I never understand that team, so unpredictable.

  55. The only people outside of Baltimore and the rest of Maryland that thought the Ravens were going to be a playoff team were the staff of PFT. One of the worst preseason predictions you guys have ever had.

  56. I see this game between the Broncos and Packers as one where we will see if Kubiak has implemented the changes on offense during the bye that blend both the best of what Peyton does versus the future of the zone blocking west coast that won Denver back to back super bowls. My heart and gut tell me we will see a much improved offense by Denver and with that defense it may be enough to win against a great team in the Packers. I am horrible at picking scores but that being said … Denver 34- Packers 10….(I know wishful thinking but I am after all a Broncos fan 🙂 Go Broncos!

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