Eagles boss Howie Roseman used to think trading up was a bad idea

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Yesterday, Howie Roseman was willing to swing for the fences.

A year ago, Howie Roseman was the guy pumping the brakes.

The Eagles’ de facto General Manager wasn’t bashful about giving up future assets to move to the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, including a 2017 first-rounder and a 2018 second as part of the package to the Browns.

But last March at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, he espoused the opposite view.

“When you’re looking at trading up, at some point, your board drops off so dramatically in terms of how you evaluate that player,” Roseman said in 2015, via Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer. “But the history of trading up for one player, when you look at those trades, isn’t good for the team trading up and putting a lot of resources into it.

“Because the guys who are really good at the draft, if you’re hitting on 60 percent of your first-round picks, that’s a pretty good track record. And then it’s dropping as you go through the rounds. So really, the more chances you get, the more tickets to the lottery you get, the better you should be doing.”

He seemed to hold that philosophy through his first stint in charge, when the Eagles collected 48 picks in five drafts.

Of course, a year ago, many people thought then-Eagles coach/G.M. Chip Kelly was going to be the guy to make the move up, to draft his college quarterback Marcus Mariota.

But interestingly enough, that move never happened, and now Roseman is a proponent of a philosophy which would have allowed it.

27 responses to “Eagles boss Howie Roseman used to think trading up was a bad idea

  1. People don’t mind trading away the future if they are not certain that they are going to be there. Right now he needs to hit a home run so the best chances for that occur at the start of the first round. Next year he may not be working for the Eagles if he misses on this pick so he doesn’t care about trading away the future, it may not be his future. Of course, if he does hit a home run he looks like a genius, if he fails, he won’t be there to have to struggle through the lack of draft picks. From his view trading up at this point was win-win.

  2. DeSean Jackson is thanking his lucky stars Chip Kelly sent him out of Philadelphia. His career would have literally ended in Philly without ever winning a Superbowl. The Eagles are Never, NEVER winning a Superbowl.

  3. Trading up like that is a horrible idea.

    There is no upside. You starve your team from getting new talent in much needed areas and finding a competent QB that is effective in the NFL is not worth the crapshoot.

    A bad decision will set the team back five years and will rob you of any ability to address real needs.

    And this year is not a year in which you will find a competent QB that is more than a fourth round value any other year.

    Even if you get a gem that we can’t forsee now, the rest of the team is so depleted that you risk damaging your above average QB before you and protect him.

    The smart idea would have been to trade down, load up on defensive assets so that you can keep games close, and then next year see if you can draft a competent QB at a value pick.

  4. xinellum says:

    “Next year he may not be working for the Eagles if he misses on this pick…”.

    ———————-
    No. If anything, Howie has given himself a three or four year lease. Unless they deal Bradford to get some picks back, whichever QB they take won’t achieve starter status this year. So it would be foolish for Lurie to fire Howie next year. It could take as many as three or four years from now to know if the QB they draft now can actually play.

    Regarding this story more generally,I think Howie still knows the value of having a quantity of picks, and he will spend the next year or two making deals to amass them. He won’t go into next year’s draft with the current number of picks.

  5. The fact of the matter is you prognosticators don’t know yet, we won’t know of this is a good or bad deal for either side until the kid they draft plays and the Browns kids they draft play, then we’ll know…the Eagles didn’t give up the farm and if they get their guy Howie is a genius but if he’s a bust Howie is never an nfl GM again, it’s a big roll of the dice but scared money is dead money

  6. I think you are taking those remarks slightly out of context. I believe he was referring to the swing-for-the-fences trades where people try to move up 20 or more spots and have to give up huge amounts of picks like people were saying the Eagles should do to go up and get Mariotta. In this case, the Birds only had to move up six spots.

  7. Coming from a team that never trades up (Packers) I wouldn’t mind seeing a move like this. There are years that we would have been better off trading our first round pick away (2005, 2007, 2011, 2013 for example)

    Bottom line is if you don’t have a QB in this league, your job is on the line. If you trade up for a QB, your job is on the line, so you do what you have to.

  8. I like to think that the Rams are going to pull the rug out and end up taking the guy that the Eagles want. Now that would be rich. They should have just moved up for Mariota last year.

  9. Moves like this simply confirm that the ones calling the shots in Philly are in way over their head. They sign Bradford, a qb who wouldn’t start on 3/4 of the teams in this league (being generous here), for 18 mill per(LOL), and 7 mill for a journeyman backup in Daniel, is all you need to know about the competency level of management. Neither of these two qb’s being touted as the top 2 picks for the draft would go in round 1 any other year, period. So, not knowing which one the Rams will take, there’s no way they would know because even if the Rams informed them, it’s all BS anyway, means you’re willing to settle for whichever one they don’t take is comical. This is an average team, who gave away their best talent two consecutive off seasons , meaning they have many, many holes to fill. How do you do that? You trade away a fortune of picks to get an average qb…..recipe for disaster. Glad it’s not my team making these ridiculous deals, although my many iggle fan friends will need shoulders to cry on down the road ,so…..

  10. No wonder Chip didn’t want this guy involved in personnel decisions. We gave up all those picks for a guy we hope is the next Joe Flacco or Steve McNair. What other decent QB came from a small program that I’m missing?

  11. picks mean nothing if you don’t have the right philosophy on what NFL talent is.

    Reid killed this roster for years with his drafting.
    year after year of bust and undersized “high motor” players.
    Then Kelly wanted WRs that blocked instead of catching balls and relied on the physically weak Oregon team.

  12. Unless the QB they choose turns out to be top-tier QB, Roseman gave up too much for the privilege of moving up six spots.

    With all the money they are paying Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel, this move is total head-scratcher.

  13. He’s losing 3 picks over 3 years. Oh the future is ruined. The Redskins traded higher picks got to the playoffs, dropped RG3 and got back to the playoffs in like 3 years and that franchise makes Cleveland look competent. I think Philly will be ok.

  14. the 2015 move would have been pick #20 to #2
    this was pick #8 to #2

    It’s a SIGNIFICANT difference in cost, and thus not directly comparable.

  15. yo! lurie told him to go get a franchise qb , period !
    …that’s what changed his mind for him.

  16. Falcons traded up for Julio Jones.
    Browns traded down in that swap, and got a lot of nobodies, with their “highlight” being DT Phil Taylor.

  17. Yep, this was forced from the top. Ironically it was the Browns owner who forced them to trade up for a QB a few years ago and now it’s the team the Browns traded with. History about to repeat itself.

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