Release of season win total wagers offers look at how teams are perceived

AP

Online sportsbook Bovada.lv released its initial 2016 season win totals Wednesday, something that at very least gets people talking.

If it gets people wagering — legally, of course — that’s just bonus. Regular season win totals for all 32 teams are eventually posted across various online sportsbooks and at Las Vegas casinos, and interested players either choose “over” or “under” for their favorite teams, or ones they love to root against.

Even for folks who don’t bet, the season win totals offer an idea of how teams are perceived by people who do the wagering thing for a living. At least from what Bovada released Wednesday, five teams — the Patriots, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers and Panthers — are regarded as a cut above the rest. All five had win totals of 10.5 upon initial release.

The Browns had the lowest over/under win total at 4.5. The Titans and 49ers are listed at 5.5.

Every win total comes with “juice,” the percentage a bettor pays to the house on any sports bet. The Packers over 10.5 wins, for example, comes at a price of -165, meaning a bettor would have to lay $165 to win $100. If you take the Packers under, you’d be wagering $100 to win $135 thanks to the +135 price.

A standard bet on, say, Steelers -3 vs. the Ravens in October comes with 10 percent juice on each side. Steelers -3 would be $110/100, and the same on the other side for Ravens plus the points. Almost every season win total comes with a half attached, because a tie is like kissing your sister — and a season total bet that ends in a tie results in a refund.

The season win totals will be different at different outlets, and they’ll move if one side gets heavy action. For now, though, below are Bovada’s win totals for each team with juice it’s over 20 percent…

Panthers 10.5 (over -130)

Packers 10.5 (over -165)

Patriots 10.5 (over -150)

Steelers 10.5

Seahawks 10.5

Cardinals 9.5 (over -160)

Bengals 9.5 (over -140)

Cowboys 9.5

Colts 9.5

Chiefs 9.5 (over -130)

Vikings 9.5 (over -130)

Broncos 9

Ravens 8.5

Texans 8.5 (over -135)

Raiders 8.5

Bills 8

Jets 8

Giants 8 (over -160)

Falcons 7.5

Bears 7.5

Jaguars 7.5 (over -150)

Rams 7.5

Buccaneers 7.5

Redskins 7.5

Lions 7.5 (over -130)

Dolphins 7

Saints 7

Eagles 7

Chargers 7

49ers 5.5

Titans 5.5 (over -160)

Browns 4.5 (over -130)

106 responses to “Release of season win total wagers offers look at how teams are perceived

  1. “The Browns had the lowest over/under win total at 4.5.”

    Obviously, Vegas is still oblivious to the fact that the Browns have RG3 now.

    Or ARE they..?

  2. I think the over under is also 10.5 for average number of actual Jaguar fans at a Jacksonville home game

  3. The under on the Eagles and the Browns are the two safest bets. I’ll take the over on the Redskins and the Jaguars.

  4. Brady needs to just take his suspension. Take 4 weeks off, get Jimmy G some playing time to increase his trade value. Tom comes in fresh week 5 to a 3-1 record. And nobody in the AFC is coming to Foxborough to win.

  5. The NFL has many issues. One thing it doesn’t have to worry about is parity. Most teams are expected to compete this year, only 3 teams are predicted to s*** the bed.

  6. Broncos won the Super Bowl and beat a 15-1 team that was deemed unstoppable. That game would have been an 80’s style blowout with decent qb play.
    Still no love or respect.
    Watch out.

  7. When you bet anything like this, make sure you know WHEN a winning bet will be paid. The betting groups want to keep your money as long as possible. You might think ” I bet over x wins and my team covers that by week 13, so they should pay then” WRONG.
    Most will keep the money until after the Super Bowl, in early Feb, and then process it for another few weeks.

  8. So if I am reading this right it looks like Vegas thinks the Pack will have the best record in the league this year. Nice! Let’s hope they’re right.

  9. Packers are going for a minimum of 12 Wins.. not just because they are my team, but because this is the weakest schedule they have had in at least a decade (based on previous seasons records)

  10. Speaking of perception, given the explanation of the “juice”, the Lions and Jaguars should be the highest of the 7.5 teams on your list.

  11. im always so surprised at how much they put on GB… always over rated ……always…

    i do guess they might get 9 wins cause they get the damn near easiest squedule this coming season.( which is feel is rigged) but itll mean when my vikings dominate they cant say anything

  12. 9.5 on the Colts?? I’ll take the under on that everyday and twice on Sunday. I don’t even mean disrespect, but 9.5 seems crazy considering 8 games will win the AFC south.

  13. See, this is weird, because Vikings fans–widely accepted in basements across the state of Minnesota as the smartest fans in sports–have said that the Packers will be lucky to go 8-8 this year, while saying that it will be Carolina and Minnesota battling it out for the trip to the Super Bowl.

    I mean, what gives?

    Clearly these oddsmakers don’t live in basements in Minnesota.

  14. I am NOT a betting man by any means, but if I were to take ANY of those bets based on the way they were.

    I would put some money on NE, just incase Brady, gets Re-Unsuspended

  15. Take the under on the Chargers, Colts, and Saints. Those bets are more about who I like in those divisions – the AFC South improved a ton, as did the NFC South. The Chargers have a solid team, but their defense is still the worst in their division.

    If you bet unders, you pay less juice.

  16. Wow. Cant believe my Raiders aren’t number 1. Does the world not believe the silver and black are back? 19-0 baby!!!!!!!!!!!!

  17. Packers 10.5 (over -165)
    Vikings 9.5 (over -130)
    Bears 7.5
    Lions 7.5 (over -130)

    Well now we know which division has the most optimistic fans.

  18. Above the Cardinals we have a team that they beat twice and eliminated from the postseason, and the team that they beat in the division by 3 games.

    Last year they were listed at 8.5 in the preseason I believe and finished with 13 wins. Here’s hoping for another terrific season

  19. Bills – 8
    Jets – 8
    Dolphins – 7

    Looks like another AFC East Championship for the Pats.

    Wow, the Dolphins stink…..

  20. In gambling nothing is guaranteed, but this prop is as close to guaranteed money as it gets. Bet the under on every team in the league and you will win. Can anyone tell me why?

  21. “An insult to the Browns. I’ll get us 4 wins by week 2.” — RGIII

  22. You see that Vikings fans? Vegas doesn’t mess around. They set the O/U win totals at the number they’ll get as close as possible to 50% equal action on both sides.

    Green Bay is set at 10.5 wins. Minniesoda is set at 9.5. MOST of the (objective) NFL fans around the country think your division title in 2015 (and immediate choke job in the playoffs – wide left) was a fluke.

    But by all means, enjoy your (annual) offseason paper championship. The real big-boy teams are preparing for (yet another) REAL division title and annual deep playoff run.

  23. What does Las Vegas know that the Viking fans have missed? I’ve been reading all spring on how the Vikings are going to dominate and yet, Vegas has them second in the division.

  24. You mean to say people that are prepared to put their money with their mouth is, don’t think the Vikings have suddenly leapfrogged the Packers?

    Preposterous.

  25. I have never understand sports gambling. I just don’t get the allure. Especially since these casinos are a well oiled money making machine. Yes there are professional gamblers that do make a decent living on this kind of thing, but for every one of those people there are 1,000 that lose it all. Odds are not in your favor. If you have money to blow on it, and you just like the atmosphere and seeing how much you know about the game, etc, then sure, I can see that. But more often than not, it isn’t the guy with disposable income, its the guy losing his daughter’s college fun, and car, and house, and retirement, etc. It’s essentially a legal scam.

  26. bowdowntopeyton says:May 19, 2016 8:56 AM

    Broncos 9?? Guaranteed win on the over

    Only if they sign Fitzpatrick after starting the season 0-3.

  27. Damn cowboys going from 4-12 to being favored to win 9.5 games? How about we bet on how many games tony romo will play over 4.5?

  28. Actually, the list looks rather accurate barring major injury. While I am not a gambler, Vegas typically does a pretty good job at handicapping.

  29. Dolphins are at 7?

    I guess Vegas didn’t hear all of the Miami pseudo fans bravado all year so far about how they are going to take the AFC east away from NE.

    Miami: a team that was last relevant in the age of Y2K.

    #8-8forever
    #shulacheatedfirstandcheatedbest

  30. zoxitic says:
    May 19, 2016 7:30 AM

    In gambling nothing is guaranteed, but this prop is as close to guaranteed money as it gets. Bet the under on every team in the league and you will win. Can anyone tell me why?

    Because you can’t win half a game?

  31. ohand16 says:
    May 18, 2016 9:56 PM

    Somebody must be on drugs to set the Bills at 8.
    ____________________

    Well, considering they won 8 games last year and did not have any major additions or subtractions in the offseason (and no, Mario Williams is not major because he was terrible), I would say 8 is probably exactly where the Bills should be set.

  32. In gambling nothing is guaranteed, but this prop is as close to guaranteed money as it gets. Bet the under on every team in the league and you will win. Can anyone tell me why?

    —————————————————————–

    There should be 256 wins and 256 losses next season. I haven’t done the math, but I would imagine that if you add up the over/under number for all 32 teams you would end up with a number larger than 256, meaning you would win more bets than you would lose.

    But I don’t know if you are accounting for the vig or the possibility that a handful of teams lose a lot more games than expected, while a larger number of teams outperform very very slightly.

  33. Brady needs to just take his suspension. Take 4 weeks off, get Jimmy G some playing time to increase his trade value. Tom comes in fresh week 5 to a 3-1 record. And nobody in the AFC is coming to Foxborough to win.
    **********************************************************
    My first thought was this would be the safest bet, when was the last time the Pats won less than 11 games (2009) but then you add in the suspension and the Pats two WR are coming off surgeries after being injured late last season makes me think they won’t make it through the season this yr…..those injuries last yr put them on a 3 game losing streak last yr….I would stay away from them and put my money on GB winning 11 with a much weaker schedule than the pats…

  34. Take the over on the Ravens. Best bet on the list. 20 guys on IR last year, including starting qb. By all accounts a very good draft and some good FA pick-ups. Add to that a much easier schedule due to the injury plagued 2015 season. I’m not saying they are going to win the SB, but I just don’t see seven losses on their schedule.

    Can’t wait for football!!

  35. GimmeThatSkol says:
    May 19, 2016 12:05 AM

    im always so surprised at how much they put on GB… always over rated ……always…

    i do guess they might get 9 wins cause they get the damn near easiest squedule this coming season.( which is feel is rigged) but itll mean when my vikings dominate they cant say anything
    ——————————-
    Let me explain this slowly, Vikings’ fans. The reason the Packers have the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2016 is because they play the Vikings, Bears and Lions twice.

    See, not so hard to understand.

  36. The Saints have added some key pieces to the roster. If they can come together on defense, we can do better than 7 wins! Brees and the offense are still lethal, believe dat!

  37. fafaflunky says:
    May 18, 2016 10:58 PM

    No way. redskins lower then the vikings. Thats some bull right there
    _______

    Well, the Vikings won two more games than the Redskins last year. Did you guys sign Joe Montana or something?

  38. maxkingpin says:
    May 19, 2016 8:49 AM
    Cue all the lame “My team is so disrespected” crowd.any
    ________________

    That would leave out any honest Miami fans, provided you can find some. Look at their schedule, they will be dancing in the streets if they get to 7 wins.

    Over: GB, Sea, KC
    Under: Miami, NYJ
    Push: NO

  39. People need to understand that Vegas sets these lines based on where they can get equal action on both sides of the line. Everyone knows the Packer fanbase is overly optimistic every year, so the over/under has to be high so knowledgeable football fans betting the under will balance out the Packer fans betting the over.

  40. jim699 says:
    May 19, 2016 10:18 AM

    In gambling nothing is guaranteed, but this prop is as close to guaranteed money as it gets. Bet the under on every team in the league and you will win. Can anyone tell me why?

    —————————————————————–

    There should be 256 wins and 256 losses next season. I haven’t done the math, but I would imagine that if you add up the over/under number for all 32 teams you would end up with a number larger than 256, meaning you would win more bets than you would lose.

    But I don’t know if you are accounting for the vig or the possibility that a handful of teams lose a lot more games than expected, while a larger number of teams outperform very very slightly.

    _________________________________

    Jim is the winner. There will only be 256 wins next year. If you count above they are accounting for 264 wins. In addition to that, all the premium pricing is on the overs (the larger juices) which means you will be paid more for betting the under on 13 of the 32 teams. The reason why this happens, is Vegas knows that this prop is bet by 95% of people who are betting on their team to go over the total.

  41. I love how these things get attention like they’re scientific. It literally goes by public perception of a team and has nothing to do with the team itself as none of these teams even have a game day roster yet.

    Let’s all not forget that the Browns win total odds DOUBLED just by drafting Johnny Manziel and now they’ve dropped to the bottom of the barrel just by releasing Johnny Manziel. In other words people like throwing away money in Vegas.

  42. The 9.5 for the bengals is also the over/under on the number of games Burfict finishes now that the new PF ejection rule is in place. Bet the under on both.

  43. The 10.5 for the Steelers is also the over/under for the number of players who will miss games due to PEDs or pot. Take the over on that one.

  44. I said it when my team was bad, and I’ll say it now that my team is #1 on this list…

    Who cares what the gambling addicts think? Let them keep gambling away their kids’ college money and going to that kiosk in the casino to take out an instant second mortgage. What matters is what happens on the field.

    getakluwe – keep in mind your team has lost a lot of players to free agency, and even Peyton as a decrepit old has-been was better than the QBs you have on your roster now. That first game of the year will tell both of us a lot about how our teams will do this year.

  45. In Teddy We Trust says:
    May 19, 2016 10:47 AM
    All I know is if I had bet the under on the Packers and the over on the Vikings the last two years, I would have made a fortune.
    ////////////////////////////////

    Then there’s nothing to stop you from doing the same this year is there, except for your gut?

  46. crownofthehelmet says:
    May 19, 2016 11:06 AM

    The 9.5 for the bengals is also the over/under on the number of games Burfict finishes now that the new PF ejection rule is in place. Bet the under on both.

    ————————-

    Do you realize that Burfict is just as dirty as shazier, mitchell, etc…….. Tomlin sets the tone of scum

    Burfict is dirty and I don’t support how he plays…… pittsburgh fans should feel the same of their loser coach

  47. Vegas had vikings at 7.5 last year. I guess 11 wins in 2015 wins constitues a “fluke.” I remember the games were just given to them last year. Controversial wins all over the place. Game winning touchdowns as time expired, mysterious penalties that kept drives going. Other teams were on their 4th stringers while Vikings were at full strength. All year. Weakest schedule in the league. All of it! A FLUKE! WON’T EVER HAPPEN AGAIN!

  48. funny I have the raiders winning 9 games this year, maybe 10 if they don’t have to beat the refs every single week…so for them sounds about.

    Go Raiders, Go Reggie!!!

  49. good god, calm down you insecure psychotic cheeseheads.

    It was no fluke however, we’re just getting started.

    ‘ Controversial wins all over the place. Game winning touchdowns as time expired, mysterious penalties that kept drives going.’… hmm, sounds like the green bay packers to me.

  50. As a Packer fan, I’m humbled as always by the amount of national love and respect we receive annually. It’s a tremendous honor to be tagged as a contender once again by some of the greatest football experts in the land. Thank you.

    How’d the Vikes do? I couldn’t fine em.

  51. Wait what? But the vikings won the division and are goino to the super bowl for years to come. Vegas doesn’t know anything. Me and my hillbilly friends living here in Minneapolis know more than they do. The packers suck. Their fans suck. I hate them.

    Lol poor fans. Enjoy your fluke division win.

  52. Rams will get over .500 this year and win 9 games, but will just miss the playoffs. They are going to be a force this year (Im a Seahawk fan). Cardinals won’t be over .500. 49ers will be lucky to win 5 games this year. Panthers will be 10-6. Packers will go 11-5. Cowboys are an interesting team and I see them squeaking into the playoffs by the hair on Cole Beasley’s chin by winning the division therefore qualifying them. The Falcons are going to win the NFC south. Vikings will make the playoffs but get beat in first round again.

    As for the AFC
    Raiders are going to win the west
    Patriots unfortunately are going to win again no matter who plays QB.
    Jacksonville will win the AFC South
    Pittsburgh will win the north
    Texans and Chiefs will be the wildcards.

  53. Bet all the unders? Flawed logic. All it takes is 2-3 teams have QBs go down and this whole perceived win advantage goes up in smoke. Last year Dallas and Balti went under by 11.5 combined, totally wiping out the 8 win cushion, and leaving you at a disadvantage on the other 30 under bets. There are also many examples where you lay juice betting unders, because that’s the favorite. Don’t try this at home.

  54. stellarperformance says:
    May 19, 2016 11:42 AM

    In Teddy We Trust says:
    May 19, 2016 10:47 AM
    All I know is if I had bet the under on the Packers and the over on the Vikings the last two years, I would have made a fortune.
    ////////////////////////////////

    Then there’s nothing to stop you from doing the same this year is there, except for your gut?
    ______

    I believe gambling ruins families. And leave my gut out of it. I’m working on it!

  55. The Green bay at 10.5 is what is known as a “sucker bet” you see, they recognize that the fans are dumb enough to pay ridiculous amounts of money for a piece of paper. (‘stock’ to help them sleep at night)

    Vegas preys on this rampant stupidity by inflating the win total for the packers fans to bet the over. Easy money.

  56. It sure is nice to see so many negative comments about the Vikings from packer fans. Vikes are living rent free in the heads of packer fans everywhere. oh, and by the way:
    “I just want to live long enough to piss on Lambeau’s grave.”
    George Calhoun, co-founder of the Packers

  57. So Vegas is forecasting that the packers, getting Jordy back and playing a second place schedule, are only going to improve by half a game from last season. Sounds a little optimistic, but ok.

  58. 2015 Vegas numbers were as follows

    Packers – 10.5 wins
    Vikings – 6.5 wins

    End result – Vikings got the over and won the north.

    Oh…and they didn’t need 2 miracle Hail Marys to get it done.

  59. beedubyatoo says:
    May 19, 2016 10:35 AM
    GimmeThatSkol says:
    May 19, 2016 12:05 AM

    im always so surprised at how much they put on GB… always over rated ……always…

    i do guess they might get 9 wins cause they get the damn near easiest squedule this coming season.( which is feel is rigged) but itll mean when my vikings dominate they cant say anything
    ——————————-
    Let me explain this slowly, Vikings’ fans. The reason the Packers have the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2016 is because they play the Vikings, Bears and Lions twice.

    See, not so hard to understand.
    ÷÷÷÷=÷÷÷÷
    Apparently it is for Packer fand to understand. What team in the division lost every single home divisional game last season? Oh, that’s right, the Packers. Which team should have been swept by the lowly Lions if it were not for a desperation Hail Mary last season? Oh, that’s right, the Packers. The North isn’t a walk in the park for Packers.

    The actual reason the Packers have such an easy schedule is due to the fact that two divisons that the NFC North play this year are two of the worst divisions in the NFL, the NFC East and AFC South.

    Packer fans think they know it all, but obviously they don’t.

  60. ariani1985 says:
    May 19, 2016 1:06 PM
    What is the over on the Packers losing an NFL record 22 times in the first round?
    //////////////////////////////////////////

    Since 1968, the first postseason appearance for the Vikings, the Vikings have lost in the first round fourteen times. In the same period of time, the Packers have exited the first round seven times. In fact, since 1936, the Packers have exited the first round a total of nine times……and I’m throwing in the championships in the absence of playoffs!

    Place your bets.

  61. contra74 says:
    May 19, 2016 11:01 PM
    Oh…and they didn’t need 2 miracle Hail Marys to get it done.
    ////////////////////////////////////

    Inaccurate, but still funny. As if Bridgewater could throw half the distance in any event. I get it. Good one.

  62. stellarperformance says:
    May 20, 2016 9:35 AM
    ariani1985 says:
    May 19, 2016 1:06 PM
    What is the over on the Packers losing an NFL record 22 times in the first round?
    //////////////////////////////////////////

    Since 1968, the first postseason appearance for the Vikings, the Vikings have lost in the first round fourteen times. In the same period of time, the Packers have exited the first round seven times. In fact, since 1936, the Packers have exited the first round a total of nine times……and I’m throwing in the championships in the absence of playoffs!

    Place your bets.
    —-
    Packer fans truly are the nations best history teachers.

    When all else fails simply talk about the past because somehow it will magically make you feel better about the bleak future eh!?

    Hey, if looking back 50 years ago makes you feel warm and fuzzy about making a bet today then by all means….Vegas was built for suckers like you.

  63. tedmurph says:
    May 19, 2016 4:58 PM
    “Bet all the unders? Flawed logic. ”

    No it’s not. If you bet the under on every single team you will be correct on 1/2 of them, and incorrect on 1/2 of them. What makes this a winning wager is that some of those under bets will pay more than 1:1, and none pay less than 1:1. You are guaranteed to win more money than you bet.

  64. Incorrect. The bets where the under is favored(there are plenty) that you lose do not pay even money. They pay less than even money. You pay the vig. Also, if the 4 teams with a 7 total push(they all go 7-9), now the expectation is there are going to be 8 more wins than losses throughout the rest of the league.

  65. I’m sure there are several restaurants and casinos that would comp your hotel and meals if you think you have a system that could beat them. Especially one as simplistic as that. Morgage your house and bring all the money. They’ll pay for the flight too.

  66. Vikings are lucky to go 8 and 8 this coming season, no improvement in Bridgewater, Petersen the fumbler a year older, Vikings will be picking a QB in the next draft, the defense will keep them at 8 and 8 ,Panthers, Cards, Packers and Seahawks will be atop the NFC.

  67. Contra/GTO/PurplePackerHater or any of your other 15 screen names…question for you:

    You may want to stop talking about going back 50 years. Either that or stop bringing up division championships from the 70’s & 80’s.

    I get that that’s all you have to hang your hat on, but it just makes you look stupid. Even more than your horned helmet and your sister/wife.

    The Packers have had two bad decades. The Vikings are working on 6.

    All 6 in their existence.

    Hush now, little one.

  68. *Congrats to the raiders for breaking .500 for the 1st time in 14 years…

    (*another offseason prejection for the offseason champions, we all know when the actual games are player .500 is their cap)

  69. Vikings fans! Easy money! I’m certain you noticed your team, marching to the inevitable Super Bowl triumph and dynasty you tell is about, is seriously underestimated here.

    9.5! Ptash! Bet the farm. Mortgage mom’s home. When you get the big pay-off it’ll be easy street!

    Let’s see that confidence translated into action! Be a man! Make something of this! Teddy and Everyday (*or whatever) will make you wealthy!

  70. beedubyatoo says:

    Let me explain this slowly, Vikings’ fans. The reason the Packers have the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2016 is because they play the Vikings, Bears and Lions twice.

    See, not so hard to understand.

    _______________________________

    Vikings 2015 divisional record 5-1
    Packers 2015 divisional record 3-3

    The Packers were for all practical purposes sweep by the Lions-
    it’s you that doesn’t understand the obvious.

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