Will Von Miller sit out the 2016 season?

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The Von Miller contract talks became very public on Wednesday, only two days after a White House visit that had everyone singing Kumbaya and Miller talking about progress being made on a long-term deal. There’s now a belief in some circles the situation quickly could get ugly.

Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports reports that Miller could sit out the entire 2016 season, eschewing (I love that word) his $14.1 million franchise tender and not playing for the Broncos at all. On the surface, it seems unfathomable that Miller would follow his Super Bowl MVP season by not playing football for an entire season. But Miller would indeed gain a tangible benefit by holding out for a full year, as PFT discerned four years ago during the last Drew Brees impasse with the Saints.

Article 10, Section 15(c) of the Collective Bargaining Agreement provides that the Broncos can’t use the exclusive franchise tender on Miller in 2017 if he doesn’t play in 2016. Also, the compensation another team would be required to give the Broncos if signing Miller to an offer sheet in 2017 would be a first-round and a third-round pick.

It’s a far cry from hitting the open market, Suh-style. But it would undoubtedly bring multiple suitors to the table who would be potentially offering more for Miller than the Broncos are willing to pay.

From Miller’s perspective, walking away from $14.1 million for 2016 or a long-term deal with nearly $40 million fully guaranteed at signing entails significant risk. Will he emerge with a better offer from the Broncos or someone else in 2017? Even if he does, that year of football for which he would have gotten at least $14.1 million or, based on the average of the currently-expired offer, $19 million will be gone forever, with Miller getting zero dollars and zero cents (plus benefits) this season.

Despite the ability to finagle a possible path out of Denver for 2017, the notion that Miller would sit a full season feels like his reaction to the team taking the fairly aggressive stance of putting a large offer on the table with a deadline for taking it. Making a plausible threat to not play at all in 2016 is undoubtedly aimed at making the Broncos willing not only to put the offer back on the table (which they surely will do before the July 15 deadline for doing a long-term deal) but also to sweeten it.

Ultimately, the question likely becomes whether the Broncos will fully guarantee the year-to-year franchise-tag money that Miller would make through 2018. While no one has specifically reported that Miller wants $55.38 million to be fully guaranteed at signing, that’s the sum of what he’d make under three years of the franchise tag, at a 20-percent increase for 2017 and then a 44-percent bump for 2018. It’s reasonable for him to take the position that he’s willing to let the tag drive his long-term deal if the Broncos are willing to assume the risk that he’ll remain sufficiently healthy and effective in 2016 and 2017 to justify using the tag again in 2018.

74 responses to “Will Von Miller sit out the 2016 season?

  1. I think he should do it. Then we can see how important he is to the defense. He will either prove to the Broncos he is worth more, because their D takes a major step back, or he will prove he is an interchangeable piece. Its a gamble for sure, but if he wants to use that avenue as a way to stand up for what he believes, more power to him

  2. No QB? That’s okay we didn’t have one last year and still one th SB with our Defense!! Look for us to repeat!!

    Jackson gone.
    Trevathan gone.
    Talib getting suspended(probably).
    Miller sitting out.

    Uh-oh Donkeys your defense is vaporizing before your eyes. Now watcha gonna do?

  3. I think 19/20MM/year is too much.
    Had he signed the Denver deal, he’d make his 39MM for 2 years then have to renegotiate or be cut.
    Which would be ok, since he’d be a free agent and could make 14 (in 2018).

    If he is franchised this year and next, he makes less and Denver pays less. Then he can leave.
    Denver gets the same 2 years, but saves around 9MM. They can still negotiate with him, and he doesn’t cost them anything if seriously hurt in the playoffs and ineffective the following year (i.e. he’s cut).

    Suh is over paid.
    A team is far better off paying a QB like Ryan Tannehill 19MM than paying a bad QB (McCowan 4MM) [net difference = 15MM], than paying a great pass rusher 20MM, when 15MM of that could be used for upgrading 2-3 other positions.

  4. Faulty analysis in this article.

    He wouldn’t be franchised 3 years in a row.
    Franchise him twice. Then he’s a free agent.
    He will be almost 30 after 2 years.
    Will his productivity at that age be worth 20MM/year?

  5. In 1 month, Miller and the Broncos will sign a contract and all this hype will disappear. It’s the summer games for the media ‘will he or won’t the team…” happens EVRY SINGLE OFF SEASON.

  6. You gotta figure they’ll get something done before the season starts. I don’t like Elway but he’s smart enough to know that his team won’t be making the playoffs, let alone repeating, without Miller motivated and on the field.

  7. Someone needs to teach horseface the lesson that he obviously didn’t learn from the Osweiller situation or any of the many other situations where he tried to low ball key players
    Von just might be the man for the job

  8. I’m beginning to wonder if the Broncos may not have been better off signing all those other players who left and not bothered trying to sign Miller. The fact that it has gone on this long means they are probably very far apart and, to be honest, I think they could have kept those other guys and let Miller go and not had as big an impact. Whichever way it goes, this is a mess. I can’t believe we have people whining about making “only” $14M+. Talk about lack of reality.

  9. The Broncos would be stupid to guarantee 3 years franchise. If Miller’s agent tells him to sit, he should fire his agent. The way the system is set up, this is as good as it gets for Miller. Get the 14 mil this year and see what happens.

  10. intrafinesse says:
    Jun 9, 2016 9:02 AM

    Faulty analysis in this article.

    He wouldn’t be franchised 3 years in a row.
    Franchise him twice. Then he’s a free agent.
    He will be almost 30 after 2 years.
    Will his productivity at that age be worth 20MM/year?—————————————

    I think you nailed it, as a Raider fan I would love for the Broncos to tie up huge money on one player and hurt their cap. Two years of the franchise tag would be the smartest move. Then get a comp pick when he leaves.

  11. Play the sport you love in your prime. Life is short. Don’t sit out, take the 14 million.

    If he really is willing to sit out the Broncos should go get a first and a third for him now.

  12. I think many are over paid.
    Entertainers (which include athletes).
    Many business executives who don’t produce.
    It’s one thing if you build up a multi billion dollar company like Apple (Steve Jobs). Its another thing if you go to Yahoo and do nothing and get paid tens of millions of dollars fro not producing (Marissa Mayer).

    >>duster1982 says:
    Jun 9, 2016 9:03 AM
    God I hate athletes…

  13. intrafinesse says:
    Jun 9, 2016 9:02 AM
    Faulty analysis in this article.
    He wouldn’t be franchised 3 years in a row.
    Franchise him twice. Then he’s a free agent.
    He will be almost 30 after 2 years.
    ———————————–

    He can be tagged 3 years in a row but he wouldn’t be. The 2006 CBA changed the formula to pay a non-quarterback the quarterback franchise tender if he’s tagged a third time. That change was not modified in the last CBA. It was reinforced in the Brees arbitration that a player can’t be tagged a fourth time.

  14. People forget that John Elway was drafted by the Colts and refused to play for them. He played Triple A baseball in Oneonta NY for the Yankees farm system for a few weeks until a trade was arranged. He knows a thing or two about playing hardball. I think Miller will come out on top here.

  15. The smartest thing Miller could do, is position himself to be a free agent with multiple teams bidding for his services….

    This actually makes tons of sense for him to sit out if it means Denver can no longer use the “exclusive” version of the Franchise Tag….

    Someone would’ve given up 2 first round picks for him…which is why Denver had to use the exclusive version of the Tag….

    When he’s available next year for a first and a third, a team like the Patriots or Packers or Seahawks would have to be complete schmuckery not to sign him….He puts anyone of those Teams in the Superbowl….

    Think of how many teams out there would be willing to trade a first an a third for a Super Bowl appearance and likely Win!….

    He literally gets pressure every play and has to be accounted for on the field!

  16. Seriously, How could the Donkeys afford the Great Von Miller* AND butt-fumbler extraordinaire Mark Sanchez?

    GM of the year will make it happen, because, well, he’s the GM of the year.
    LMFAO

    GM of the year happened to land a Juiced up Peyton Manning* Pey Pey never recovered from the SB curbstomping he took from the Seahags.

    His HGH supply must’ve been cut off.

    GM of the year…. LOL

  17. Suh is overpaid, but the deal the Bronco’s offered to millers is still less than what Houston and Vernon got, way less. Miller should get around what JJ gets

    intrafinesse says:
    Jun 9, 2016 8:59 AM

    I think 19/20MM/year is too much.
    Had he signed the Denver deal, he’d make his 39MM for 2 years then have to renegotiate or be cut.
    Which would be ok, since he’d be a free agent and could make 14 (in 2018).

    If he is franchised this year and next, he makes less and Denver pays less. Then he can leave.
    Denver gets the same 2 years, but saves around 9MM. They can still negotiate with him, and he doesn’t cost them anything if seriously hurt in the playoffs and ineffective the following year (i.e. he’s cut).

    Suh is over paid.
    A team is far better off paying a QB like Ryan Tannehill 19MM than paying a bad QB (McCowan 4MM) [net difference = 15MM], than paying a great pass rusher 20MM, when 15MM of that could be used for upgrading 2-3 other positions.

  18. A couple of things: V Miller isn’t going to leave $829k per wk on the table this yr. Just won’t happen.

    I understand the math of (his agents) 3 yrs franchise tag, but that calc doesn’t work with the(or any) team. I can’t envision any team using the tag a 3rd time, it’s just too cost prohibitive, except maybe for a HOF QB.

    But, I also agree with Millers camp that the guaranteed $$ is short of where it should be. So, the Broncs should get that # closer to 50 mil than 40 mil.

    I also believe Elway is prepared to use him this yr under the tag & then let him walk.

  19. ragnarthegreat says:
    Jun 9, 2016 9:37 AM
    People forget that John Elway was drafted by the Colts and refused to play for them. He played Triple A baseball in Oneonta NY for the Yankees farm system for a few weeks until a trade was arranged.

    ————
    Yes…..so much for integrity of the game…..

  20. Von Miller is an ingrate. The NFL is digging a hole for itself. Soon they won’t sign any of these “chest pounders” for fear they’ll hold out, cause locker room problems and on and on. Off field activities and character of these so called stars are at the top of the pecking order when getting drafted. I’d rather see players of character and integrity than these big mouth,head case, so called “stars.” I’m sick of it.

  21. We all need to understand that Von Miller is a rare talent. There are lots of great pass rushers, great cover LB’s, big hitters and edge setters. THIS GUY IS ALL OF THOSE THINGS! I hope the beer drinking management team isn’t operating under the influence….of themselves. GET PAID BRUH!

  22. 24hoursinaday24beersinacase says:
    Jun 9, 2016 9:20 AM
    intrafinesse says:
    Jun 9, 2016 9:02 AM

    Faulty analysis in this article.

    He wouldn’t be franchised 3 years in a row.
    Franchise him twice. Then he’s a free agent.
    He will be almost 30 after 2 years.
    Will his productivity at that age be worth 20MM/year?—————————————

    I think you nailed it, as a Raider fan I would love for the Broncos to tie up huge money on one player and hurt their cap. Two years of the franchise tag would be the smartest move. Then get a comp pick when he leaves.

    ****************************
    Won’t get a comp pick for a franchised player. When they are franchised they are no longer on their rookie contract.

  23. Only fool sits out a season.

    If your career is 10 years long and you play in every game, that’s only 160 times you get to do what you love the most.

    Toss in a few playoff games since he’s on one of the better teams and maybe he can play 170-180 nfl games in his lifetime.

    These players don’t realize that if you’re smart you can live large for the entire rest of your life on that 14 mil the tag will pay him this year even after taxes and agent’s fees.

    To throw away both that and the opportunity to play in 16 or more games of the limited total you’ll get to in your life is insane.

    Baseball players can play in literally 2000+ games in their career, hockey and nba guys 1000 or more if their career is long.

    Football you get oh so few chances. He should sign the tag and be happy.

  24. “God I hate athletes…”
    ————————

    hate ’em all you want for a lot of reasons but this comes from bloggers and lawyers, not the athlete.

  25. Is he still hanging out with Johnny Football? I thought Von was supposed to be a good influence on Johnny – sounds like Johnny was a bad influence on Von.

  26. I laugh at the comments from people (who’s money it ISN’T) that say “pay the man!” That’s easy to say when it isnt your money. It is, however, the Bowlen’s money. If you have the extra millions to kick in for Miller’s salary, then feel free to do so. Either way, I have a card game that I’d like to invite you to….

  27. I’m sure that Von Miller would be more willing to come to an arrangement with Denver if the Burros bring in his buddy, Johnny Manziel. Von badly wants Manziel to be his teammate, so Elway should give in to him on that point, LOL.

  28. If he did sit out, which I doubt he will, and became available….Dallas would make the move to bring him on the Cowboys. He could play both OLB and DE in various situations.

  29. Just pay the man, don’t insult him with a low ball offer……its like taking dog pooh and putting cake frosting around it…Bronco’s make it look like a huge deal by sugarcoating it, when in reality it was a 2 year dog pooh deal……bottom line Von would look great in Silver and Black, and pretty much every other team in the NFL…….gotta pay, or let him go.

  30. Why do I see people thinking it’s easy to just franchise high value players 2 years in a row? The reason teams don’t really like to do that is because once franchised the full tag number hits their salary cap for the year. Getting a long term deal done allows the team to spread the cap hit around more evenly. The Broncos can probably get away with it this year without much problem because they’re not paying much towards the QB position this year but next year it will cost 20% more to franchise Miller and other big deals such Demaryous Thomas’s deal will start hitting the cap harder. There’s a lot of ripple effects to a team’s cap that comes with the franchise tag.

  31. magnumpimustache says:
    Jun 9, 2016 9:18 AM
    If I am von miller I get a hamstring injury in game one. And work my way back into the lineup in week 14.

    Pay the man he won you the super bowl

    3 28
    —–
    100% correct. Owners are slime. 3 people are smart. The other 28 bag groceries for $10 an hour and are jealous of rich athletes.

  32. He won’t sit out 16 games, he will sit out 6 or so, then report so he can earn the year.

    The Broncos shouldn’t punish Miller because the Clady deal didn’t work out.

    Elway seems like a tough negotiator – doesn’t seem to be working out so far…but we will see I guess.

  33. Miller is a great player and I imagine in any negotiation you put your ego aside no matter which party you are. The Broncos probably expected there would be a pause over the guaranteed part, but they tried to at least set the bar on length and total amount, plus incentives. I’d expect that they will now adjust the guaranteed portion to 3 years showing good faith and compromise expecting Miller to accept the revised contract. What I read is that the Broncos are still in negotiating mode with Miller’s agent. I’d expect they want to get him in as soon as possible and I think Miller would like that as well.

  34. The way the deal got yanked my first thought was we’re going to be hearing about a suspension. His next failed drug test is a year long.

  35. Bronco’s fans claim he is the best defensive player in football. He actually proved he is the top tier at his position and took MVP level to bring the team a Super Bowl.

    Now he wants to get paid in such a way most of you all are telling him to punp his breaks, greedy athlete. John Elway put together a great team but the way he handles these guys who have earned it – they could be sitting 3rd or 4th in the division 2016.

  36. Man no manning/miller/jackson/treviathian?

    Thank god Kraft pled guilty and Brady’s conviction stands- if the ball boy was allowed to take the checked in balls from the ref. To the bathroom again I might start to worry.

  37. Good for Miller. Get as much as you can. For those who cry “greedy athlete” – how many of you would turn down a raise at work if you knew you could get it? No-one, I assume.

    That being said, ask the Texans and the Dolphins if it’s worth it to concentrate that much money on a player who isn’t a great QB.

    Miller IS a great player, probably top 2-3 defenders in the league but that amount of money hamstrings the rest of the team. If there’s a team (outside the conference) willing to trade a couple of first rounders, I might entertain it.

  38. Here is the perfect script: Dave Gettleman lets KK skate, replaces him with the rookie Vernon Butler, signs Miller to a good deal with KK $$, and Miller goes on to win a super Bowl with the team he beat a year ago!

  39. Haha Stop It Mike, no way Von is going to give up all that money on the tag, beside news has it that Denver agreed in principle with Von. Better take this story down.

  40. No way he sits out. Anything could happen such as getting shot in the knee cap in some strip club or his pistol going off in his pocket or killing someone while DWI. To many possible bad scenarios out there now a days.

  41. The Broncos have all the leverage. I would not want to pay him all that money either. All he seems to care about now are talk shows and dancing. He has had a torn ACL and was close to being done for smoking weed. He should sign a team friendly deal and prove that he can stay clean and healthy. He has always said he wanted to retire a bronco. Now is a time to prove it

  42. It’s a little early in this process to be making threats like that; those year long holdout diatribes don’t usually start making the rounds until after training camps open, and the fines start piling up.

  43. It’s hard to imagine him sitting out. It all depends on his priorities. Some people just want fair market value and a chance at a title (Luke Kuechly), some absolutely cannot live unless they are the “highest-paid (insert position here)” (Josh Norman).

    Or, maybe he has seen the free agent departures, Talib channeling his inner Pacman Jones and the dearth of QBs on the roster, and he has somewhere else in mind to play…….

  44. It is intendeed to leverrge a better offer. Yeah I don’t believe he is holding out to be the highest paid OLB when their offer is the second highest . This has to be about structure.

  45. The question is will Miller sit out the 2016 season. The answer is no. Unless he gets suspended again for roiding up.

  46. When he’s available next year for a first and a third, a team like the Patriots or Packers or Seahawks would have to be complete schmuckery not to sign him….He puts anyone of those Teams in the Superbowl….

    Think of how many teams out there would be willing to trade a first an a third for a Super Bowl appearance and likely Win!….
    ————————————————
    Fact is this, Chandler Jones was traded to the Cardinals because next season they have multiple players to pay. They knew they couldn’t pay them all and Jones was the one who was traded. That is one thing i like about New England, they think well in advance.
    The Seahawks don’t neccesarily need Miller, they already have an elite defense.
    A team that would get him (a) would have big cap room (b) Therefore are likely not to be a contender,
    Miller won’t sit out for this reason alone. It would devalue him. Instead of having a year showing how good he is to give Denver extra impetus to signing him, or someone else breaking the bank for him he’d spend a year watching.
    From what i have heard, The offer of 114m was acceptable, it’s the guaranteed money that is the sticking point.

  47. neelymessier says:
    Jun 9, 2016 4:21 PM
    It is intendeed to leverrge a better offer. Yeah I don’t believe he is holding out to be the highest paid OLB when their offer is the second highest . This has to be about structure.
    ——————-
    It is about structure. Denver put 114m on the table, obviously a very large table 😀
    It’s the guaranteed and structure thats the sticking point.
    He won’t be sitting out that’s a near certainty.

  48. Why put your health on the line for $14M, when you will get more in 1 year. John Elway low balled the guaranteed $$$ to less than the Bronco’s signed D. Thomas at $45M. JJ Watt got $50M Guaranteed…the offer to V. Miller was basically an insult. $39M guaranteed, but paid out over 3 years…Richard move by Elway. Why risk it for a team that obviously doesn’t want you there long term. The $114M is a fantasy number that the lessor knowledgeable public thinks is “something real”, but we all know these NFL owners can’t & won’t keep a player for their full contract. Horse Teeth is just trying to line his pockets with Von Miller bonus money.

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