Von Miller’s expectation over first three years is the key to a Denver deal

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When it comes to NFL contracts, only three factors matter: (1) signing bonus; (2) full guarantee at signing; and (3) cash flow over the first three years.

When it comes to the Broncos and linebacker Von Miller, the last factor has emerged as the biggest impediment. Per a source with knowledge of the situation, Miller has requested more than $70 million over the first three years of the deal.

It’s not an outlandish demand. Ndamukong Suh gets $60 million over the first three years of his contract with Miami. Miller is objectively a better player. If he would have hit the open market in March, it wouldn’t have been a shock to see Miller get $70 million over three years, or more.

Also, if Miller asked for more than $70 million as an opener, he surely had room to move downward. So he probably doesn’t want $70 million-plus as his bottom-line position.

As the source explained it, Miller didn’t want that full amount to be fully guaranteed at signing. As practical matter, however, if most of it is guaranteed, all of it likely will be paid.

A fair expectation as to fully-guaranteed money over three years would be $55.4 million, the sum of three years of franchise-tag money for Miller. The Broncos have offered $39.5 million over two; the fact that the team didn’t leak the amount that it has offered over three years suggests it’s not nearly as impressive as $39.5 million over two.

Ultimately, the cash flow through three years will determine whether this deal gets done. And it surely won’t get done until July 15 or shortly before that, if at all.

26 responses to “Von Miller’s expectation over first three years is the key to a Denver deal

  1. The heck with Miller….everytime someone gets a big contract they fizzle out..he will be no different…….thats about 12-15 positions on New England……go ahead and pay him ……..

  2. The Franchise tag is the worse most un American, anti-capitalist invention in all of team sports. So in order to ply your trade you get drafted with no say in which company you work for, then you get slotted in how much you will be paid, then you essentially must sign a 4 year deal. Then after you’ve fulfilled that contract the company keeps you off the market by tagging you for up to 3 years.

    That doesn’t make any sense. At all. It needs to go.

  3. I hear he refused the Brady contract set-up ($5MM per year and a contract to provide water to the team for $30MM per year that does not show up under the salary cap). He was honest about how what he wanted was structured.

  4. The Bronco’s know that he can’t hide his PED use anymore.
    Let him sit out the year, but he won’t, he’ll come crawling back when his ho’s need the $$$.

  5. That’s a lot of money for one guy–especially one that has had problems staying on the field.

  6. Are teams protected if a player signs a partially guaranteed contract then gets banned for steroids for example?

    I’m thinking maybe the player loses the money due to the suspension but the team still has to pay it to some fund, and it still counts against the cap.

    Certainly a danger with some players.

  7. widerightyouloseagain says:
    Jun 10, 2016 11:09 AM
    If they’re able to sign Miller after all these other signings, then you know they’re circumventing the salary cap yet again

    —————

    The joke is worn out. If you bothered to learn something, you’ll know that the violations from the late 90’s gave the team no competitive advantage. The purpose was to help fund the new stadium. Illegal? Absolutely. But no extra money went to players because of it.

  8. The narrative charade is pretty hysterical. Are you really surprised the first offer was a low-ball offer? This is the courtship of negotiating. Pretty common, really.

  9. …….already I’m tired of the back n forth between Miller and the Broncos in regard to the negotiations. Whatever happens, the man will be set for 10 lifetimes & the Denver Bronco’s will not fold for paying him millions.

  10. “It’s not an outlandish demand. Ndamukong Suh gets $60 million over the first three years of his contract with Miami.”
    _____________________

    This is the reason why Miami is in salary cap hell. The Lions were lucky that Miami overpaid for Suh as they’ve finally slipped out of salary cap handcuffs.

  11. Marijuana is not a PED. Marijuana is not a steroid. Marijuana is not a HGH. Really, not that hard to grasp even with a room temperature IQ.

  12. iderightyouloseagain says:
    Jun 10, 2016 11:09 AM
    If they’re able to sign Miller after all these other signings, then you know they’re circumventing the salary cap yet again
    ————-
    kinda like the Pats giving Brady a $30MM contract to provide water to the team?

  13. 6thsense10 says:
    Jun 10, 2016 11:22 AM

    The Franchise tag is the worse most un American, anti-capitalist invention in all of team sports. So in order to ply your trade you get drafted with no say in which company you work for, then you get slotted in how much you will be paid, then you essentially must sign a 4 year deal. Then after you’ve fulfilled that contract the company keeps you off the market by tagging you for up to 3 years.

    That doesn’t make any sense. At all. It needs to go.
    __________________

    I see. Deep thinkers want to end up paying $20 for a hot dog, $50 for a beer and #1,000 for a ticket.

  14. He should not “expect” anything with the Broncos having all the leverage. Miller has torn his ACL and was one joint away from being done. Personally I think the reason this whole thing has gone public is so when the Broncos DO NOT sign him, they can say they offered him the most money ever for a defensive player. I think and hope Von will be gone after this year. The broncos will get a first and third form him, and then just move on without having to over spend like these other teams have done for Houston, Suh and Verson ).

  15. nunezmc says:
    Jun 10, 2016 11:30 AM
    widerightyouloseagain says:
    Jun 10, 2016 11:09 AM
    If they’re able to sign Miller after all these other signings, then you know they’re circumventing the salary cap yet again

    —————

    The joke is worn out. If you bothered to learn something, you’ll know that the violations from the late 90’s gave the team no competitive advantage. The purpose was to help fund the new stadium. Illegal? Absolutely. But no extra money went to players because of it.

    ————
    Utter BS. It was cheating to pay more to Elway and Davis….

  16. Elway the backstabber is back. Remember how he traded Tebow after a playoff win? Don’t be surprised if he back stabs Von after a SB win.

  17. Honestly the contracts are worthless the day they are signed. After a year or two the teams don’t want to pay the money and then cut the player or force them to renegotiate their contract to a lower figure. Even guaranteed money language has a loop hole in it. Why not give him the contract he wants? The team will never have to pay it anyway.

  18. bigredgoog says:
    Jun 10, 2016 11:28 AM

    Are teams protected if a player signs a partially guaranteed contract then gets banned for steroids for example?

    I’m thinking maybe the player loses the money due to the suspension but the team still has to pay it to some fund, and it still counts against the cap.

    Certainly a danger with some players.

    Unless I’m mistaken, a team doesn’t have to pay the player when they are suspended. Of course the exempt list is another story. I’m not sure what happens if he’s suspended for an entire year but I think that year gets treated like he took a year off and doesn’t get subtracted from the length of the contract.

  19. Broncos fan here. While I love me some Von and while I do think its logical that Elway offer him $55M in guranteed money over the first 3 years and no more, we have Shane Ray chomping at the bit to take over for Von. Von has said all along that he wants to be here and wants to be a Bronco. We’re seeing what really matters to Von and it clearly isn’t being a lifetime Bronco. Elway isn’t Steven Ross and won’t handicap our salary cap by giving Von $70M over 3 years. Point being, if Von wants to break the bank, let him walk to a team like the Lions, take the 1st and 3rd round picks and let Shane Ray become the next Von Miller with better dance moves.

  20. senatorblutarsky says:
    Jun 10, 2016 11:51 AM
    6thsense10 says:
    Jun 10, 2016 11:22 AM

    The Franchise tag is the worse most un American, anti-capitalist invention in all of team sports. So in order to ply your trade you get drafted with no say in which company you work for, then you get slotted in how much you will be paid, then you essentially must sign a 4 year deal. Then after you’ve fulfilled that contract the company keeps you off the market by tagging you for up to 3 years.

    That doesn’t make any sense. At all. It needs to go.
    __________________

    I see. Deep thinkers want to end up paying $20 for a hot dog, $50 for a beer and #1,000 for a ticket.
    —–

    If you believe that player salary has any impact on ticket prices and concessions then I fear you are not qualified to have this discussion.

    Player salary is a percentage of total revenue and driven by revenue and revenue in turn is driven by demand. Revenue goes up player salary goes up, revenue goes down then player salary goes down.

    When owners set ticket prices they DO NOT SET THEM BASED ON PLAYER SALARY! They base it on how much the public is willing to pay. So you think some of the greediest people in the world are sitting here saying geee since we kept player salary low we’re going to pass on the savings to the fans with low ticket prices even though we have 100s of thousands of people willing to pay more? Seriously do you think that’s how the world works?

    Even if players were paid nothing you would still pay the same amount for tickets that you pay now.

  21. patsfan4lifesbchamps says:
    Jun 10, 2016 12:10 PM
    Elway the backstabber is back. Remember how he traded Tebow after a playoff win? Don’t be surprised if he back stabs Von after a SB win.

    The Patriots also CUT TEBOW. LOL. Talk about back stabbing. At least Elway never paraded Tebow around on SPECIAL TEAMS prior to releasing him.

    And it’s not BS. Educate yourself. The cap violation was to free up cash for the new stadium. No on field advantage was gained. SMH@ignorance

  22. He wants to be paid as the best defensive player in the league. He’s very VERY good, but there a number that are better.
    Very tough spot for Denver, not sure what I’d do.

  23. Both sides are being petty and selfish. Broncos should top Suhs guarantee by 1 mill and call it a day. Like an earlier poster noted, teams have never have to pay the whole contract anyways.

    If the Broncos don’t sign Von they lost all those other guys for nothing. This still gets done in crunch time always does.

  24. The Franchise tag is the worse most un American, anti-capitalist invention in all of team sports.

    _____________________________________

    So your idea of “American” is the rich get richer and the little guys beg for scraps? Pure capitalism without any sort of controls is definitely not “American.” From Teddy Roosevrlt and the Trust Busters to anti-monopoly laws, the U.S. has a long history of checking greed when it goes too far.

    There is a U.S. law called the National Labor Relations Act, passed in the 1930s, that allows employees to organize and bargain with employers as a whole if they choose to do so. Regardless of how that has been corrupted by union officals at times, players can agree to a collective bargaining agreement if they so choose. Which they did and one of the rules they agreed to is the franchise tag. They can bargain it out the next time if they want to. They don’t have to. And likely won’t since it would mean giving something else up that affects more players.

    This is completely “American.” The NLRA’s been around for over 80 years, a third of our country’s lifetime, and long before most of us were born.

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