Instead of sitting out all year, Von Miller’s best play could be to show up after Week 10

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In response to Denver’s decision to extend an offer to linebacker Von Miller with a deadline and then to rescind the offer after the deadline expired, Miller’s camp has leaked the notion that he possibly will sit out the entire season. There’s a potentially better approach.

Miller can sit out the first 10 weeks of the regular season, showing up the Tuesday after Week 10. He’d make $5.81 million for the final seven weeks, and then he’d be eligible for a 120-percent raise over $14.129 million for 2017, if the Broncos tag him again.

The question becomes whether the Broncos would tag Miller again. If he misses 10 weeks of the season, G.M. John Elway may opt to move on, with a trade of Miller becoming a viable possibility for 2017.

Sitting out the season would ensure that Miller wouldn’t be subject to the exclusive tag in 2017, and that the compensation for signing him to an offer sheet that the Broncos don’t match would be a first-round and third-round draft pick. But if missing 10 weeks is enough to get the Broncos to decide they’ve had enough, the end result would be the same.

If the Broncos decide not to trade him after missing 10 weeks of 2016, Miller could sit out 10 weeks of 2017 as well, making 7/17th of his $16.195 million tender (i.e., $6.98 million) and then forcing the Broncos to give him a 44 percent raise ($23.2 million) or the quarterback franchise tender for 2018.

The end result would be Miller making $12.79 million over two years for 14 weeks of football, and then getting at least $23.2 million for 2018 or a shot at the open market.

If Denver opts for a third straight tag, Miller would make at least $36 million for 30 games over three years. With the Broncos offering $39.5 million for 32 games over two years, Miller would up with nearly the same amount of money per game, and the very real chance that at some point along the way the Broncos will let Miller get what he’s looking for elsewhere.

35 responses to “Instead of sitting out all year, Von Miller’s best play could be to show up after Week 10

  1. That defense was pretty good and it wasn’t all because of Von Miller. The team is bigger than him. I would be tempted to trade him and move on.

  2. I gotta think they’re not that far apart. Elway’s tough, obviously, but he’s smart.

    As Phillip Seymour Hoffman said to Tom Hanks, “we’ll see”.

  3. It’s idiotic & irresponsible to encourage any healthy player to sit-out games…as it has been shown time & again that this usually results in a Lose-Lose situation.

  4. Von Miller is a moron.

    Denver can franchise him this year and next and pay him less than they offered guaranteed.
    They have the leverage, not him.
    Franchise him for 2 years and he’ll be past his best years.
    He’ll still be very good, but maybe no longer elite.

    He is getting PAID. Its not like hes a 3rd round pick holding out because he’s making 600K.
    As good as he is, He’s not worth QB money.

  5. Wouldn’t sitting out like that to play the numbers be kind of a red flag for other teams? Sure, some stupid perennial loser might pay him enough to make it marginally more profitable but who wants to spend the last half of their career with a joke of a team?

  6. He will be back going playing guys at full speed who are fully in shape and this would his first game in a while.. he tried that the same year he was suspensed and he tore his ACL shortly after.. dumb idea

  7. Elway should stick to his guns & come out in the open and tell Von, “You mad Bro? Blame DeSmith, Brees, & your Union leaders for agreeing to this.”
    When Brees & the Union agreed to this, it was all Brees looking out for #1, because he knew he was/ still is basically untaggable & he holds the hammer, all other players be damned.

  8. He has a chance to tears up his knee or have another injury more serious playing on a one year contract. If so, he loses millions. This situation is not a lose for the player / win for the team. The team takes risk with large contracts. Something that everyone seems to ignore with these discussions.

  9. If I were Elway and this guy scoffed at the huge contract offered and then sat out the first 10 weeks, I would have the PR staff send out a press release during the 10th game saying he has been cut. Who would sign him that late into the season for the money he is looking for? Could a team even reasonably try to do it with the cap hit that would cause?

  10. Get all the coin you can Von. This is your time and their might not be another chance in your future.

  11. Never trust Elway. He is a known back stabber. Remember how he back stabbed Tebow after a playoff win?

  12. If you think you can just show up week 10 without being with the team and play well enough to garner a big deal than yes, this is a great idea. There are times Florio really shows his ignorance of how the game is actually played. Stick to the legal details.

    Miller’s best options are play again and hope you don’t get hurt or sit out the full year. Missing camp and showing up mid-season is a recipe for disaster. How often do we see a guy get injured after missing training camp? He won’t be in mid-season form and his most recent film won’t be as good as it is now.

  13. If the Jets were bargaining like this, everyone would be calling them out for being cheap with a premier player; Similarly many are criticizing them for playing tough with Fitzpatrick, but he’s not even on the same level as Von. When it’s Elway, he’s playing it smart. Double standard.

  14. The only thing holding this deal up is Denver guaranteeing a third year. Knowing Elway and how he negotiates, he won’t offer the third year until July 15th when this deal finally gets done.

  15. greenmtnboy31 says:
    Jun 12, 2016 7:52 AM
    Odd behavior from Elway as a former player. It won’t be long before players balk at signing with Denver.

    I guess you would have him just sign blank checks to everyone? Or just guarantee the whole contract? You act like the offer was a total lowball.

    Being prudent with the checkbook has killed franchises like the Steelers, Patriots, Packers, etc. and nobody want to sign with them, unless they want a shot at a title.

    More teams should spend wildly like some teams of the past like the Cowboys, Redskins, Raiders, Dolphins. The Raiders were in cap hell and finally have dug out of it, and the Redskins have locked Danny S. in a room during contract negotiations and are recovering. TBD with the Dolphins and the Suh deal.

  16. “Never trust Elway. He is a known back stabber. Remember how he back stabbed Tebow after a playoff win?”

    How did he do that?
    He never said Tebow was great, or would be back, he cut Tebow because he knew he wasn’t ‘the guy’ to QB the team, not in THIS NFL.

    Anyway, Von Miller, Albert Haynesworth: there is a connection.

    I think they need to trade him, or let him sit a year, because if one of the QB’s this season has a GREAT year, they will have to PAY him, too.
    Can’t pay ’em all.

  17. First off there’s nothing negative with my comment so don’t delete it ProFootballTalk! Vons not going to sit out the season nor is he going to play on the tag he will sign a deal before the July 15th deadline. Media reports are pure speculation. Von’s knows he has to get a deal done now because if he sits out another year that just adds a year to his age, and as we all know athletes don’t get better with age, and the chanch of another team paying him much more then the broncos are offering after he hasn’t played football in 15 months, and not to mention they have to give up their first round and a 3rd round pick is very slim chance. not to mention he’s not going to play on the tag either because he knows he can’t replicate his playoff performance he may be able to but very slim chance. Not to mention he wants to be a Bronco no one but the Denver organization and Von Miller’s Camp knows the truth of what’s going on, other than that anything you hear is pure speculation and B s thanks for reading and thanks PFT for not deleting my comment?

  18. If Von Miller wants to get cute and not sign his tag and sit out that does nothing for him it only hurts him. Broncos aren’t going to cut him no matter what they’ll pay that tag salary and at the end of the year if someone wants tO sign Von Miller more than what the Broncos are offering him after he sits out out of football for a year-and-a-half , not to mention he will be what 28 yrs old then? &they will have to give up their first and third round pick and if somebody wants to sign him after all that for that $$ it’s worth denver paying his tag salary this year even if he don’t play its worth the first and third round picks more than likely. In that case with Broncos normal 7 round picks, & the two third round comp picks They will receive for Brock Osweiler and Malik Jackson, probably a 4th or a 5th rnder comp for Danny trevathan and the 1st and 3rd for von they’ll have enough pics for the 2017 draft to complete A 3rd roster. That’s two 1st rn pics one 2nd three 3rds two 4th or 5ths 6th two 7th round picks, Hate to lose you von but go ahead man if that makes you happy test the waters

  19. And to all the Bronco fans that are bashing Von for rejecting the contract and cutting Elway out of his Instagram post stop overreacting and bashing von, you can’t blame him for trying to collect big on money you would do the same, yeah it is kind of irritating that he did that Instagram post, but it’s not that big a deal stop bashing him stop treating him like he’s dirt because it’ll get done and he will be on our team and things will be all good in 2016

  20. Smh at fans that call players greedy for trying to get what they are worth…pro sports is the only business on the planet where players are both the employees AND the product..
    It irks me when fans say “this greedy moron won’t take 20 million? I could live the rest of my life on 20 million.
    Well, that may be true, but that’s not the point.
    The issue is NOT how much money you are getting, it’s all about how big of a PERCENTAGE of the money that you GENERATE are you getting?
    Think about it the same thing happens to ALL of us..
    The big wigs at the top, the board of directors, the SHAREHOLDERS of the company make the Lions share of the money while you and I do all of the work.
    Just because we’re talking about millions, instead of thousands doesn’t make a difference it’s the same principle

  21. Sitting out to week 10 two years in a row is crazy. Give up about $18 million! He would be hard pressed to get that back.

  22. They have until July 15th to make a deal. They will, and this nonsense will be over and forgotten.
    A guy like that is a game changer; he makes his teammates better. Denver was one of those teams that had everything break their way during their regular season and SB run.
    Let us not mention the Broncos made Miller an exclusive rights franchise player. Elway knew that a team way under the cap like Oakland could have made Miller a deal Denver couldn’t match. The Raiders pairing Miller & Khalil Mack could have made an all-time pass rush, with a lot of work against his team. Denver absolutely could not have allowed Miller to go to a division rival.
    The Broncos could go 12-4 this season but they won’t if Von Miller isn’t playing for them.

  23. And let’s not get carried away with Miller’s performance in the playoffs. For most of 2015-16, he was missing in action and people were wondering if he would show up for the playoffs. Obviously, he did… but to the tune of $114M? I do not think so.

  24. And let’s not get carried away with Miller’s performance in the playoffs. For most of 2015-16, he was missing in action and people were wondering if he would show up for the playoffs. Obviously, he did… but to the tune of $114M? I do not think so.

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