Even with Tom Brady suspension, Patriots still Super Bowl favorites

AP

There are plenty of people who would rather see the Patriots with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm instead of Tom Brady.

But to oddsmakers, Brady’s four-game suspension doesn’t change the bottom line.

According to Phil Perry of CSNNE.com, the Patriots are still listed as Super Bowl LI favorites by at least one bookmaker.

“Even though Tom Brady will be suspended for the first four games of the season it has not really affected the Patriots Super Bowl odds for a variety of reasons,” Bovada.lv sportsbook manager Kevin Bradley said in a statement. “First, they have a fairly easy first four matchups with the exception of playing on the road in Arizona, which would have been a tough game even if Brady was playing. Also, considering how weak their division is they are still -200 favorites to win it as there is no obvious threat.

“Lastly, when we went through this situation last year we raised the Patriots odds with the suspension news to around 10-1 and saw a ton of money on them even though people assumed Brady was not going to be playing the first four games, so we will not make that same mistake again.”

The Patriots are 6/1 to win it all, followed by the Packers (17/2), Seahawks (9/1), Cardinals (12/1), Panthers (12/1), and Steelers (12/1).

There’s also the small matter that the Patriots have shown a tendency to react favorably in the face of perceived slights in the past, which should serve them well this year, unless David Tyree makes a comeback we haven’t heard about.

51 responses to “Even with Tom Brady suspension, Patriots still Super Bowl favorites

  1. When he comes back from suspension the Browns are gonna smoke him and introduce him to the Dogg Pound while RGIII shows everyone who the daddy is at the QB position. Browns 52 Patriots 0.

  2. “First, they have a fairly easy first four matchups with the exception of playing on the road in Arizona, which would have been a tough game even if Brady was playing. Also, considering how weak their division is they are still -200 favorites to win it as there is no obvious threat.”

    But but but the fish fans have assured us it’s over in NE and this is their year. Just like last year and the year before that and the year before that and…

  3. Unfortunately for them, this is the year of the Redskin, so they’ll have to settle for second place.

    You like that?!

    Hail

  4. .
    After being a second round pick and having spent three years in the Patriots system, it’s unlikely that Garopollo will suck royally. He may be mediocre or good, but not horrendous.

    Also, when healthy the Patriots have arguably the strongest 1-53 roster in the league. That advantage can be negated by injuries. It’s better to put Garopollo in with a full complement of assets, rather than players culled the practice squad.
    .

  5. Brady will come out fresh as lettuce and their opponents will wilt. There’s nothing better than psycho-Brady.

  6. The Patriots with Brady > your team

    The Patriots with Garoppolo > your team

    That is all.

    Cheers!

    🙂

  7. igotgamenj says:
    Jul 15, 2016 2:45 PM
    Miami destroyed Brady and the Pats the last game and sent them to Denver

    And what happened the game before that vs the fish.

    Dolphins fans are a sad bunch. The best part of the season for them is if they split with the Patriots

  8. They WILL lose the first game to Arizona, Jimmy G will be running for his life…..mark it.

  9. igotgamenj says:
    Jul 15, 2016 2:45 PM

    Miami destroyed Brady and the Pats the last game and sent them to Denver
    ——————-

    Wasn’t that the game where the Patriots didn’t even try? They only threw 5 or so passes?

  10. fumblenuts says:
    Jul 15, 2016 3:08 PM
    They WILL lose the first game to Arizona, Jimmy G will be running for his life…..mark it.
    ————————
    All good. We WILL make the postseason…mark that, homie

  11. The AFC will come down to Denver, New England, and Pittsburgh this year. My sense is the team that has the home field advantage will likely head to the Super Bowl, as has been the case the past three years. It’s difficult to win on the road in any of these three cities. If New England starts off poorly without Brady for the first four games, I just don’t see them finishing with a better record than Denver and/or Pittsburgh. Denver effectively won last year’s AFC Championship when the Patriots lost to the Dolphins and handed them the #1 seed. I still don’t understand what in the world the Patriots were doing for such an important game.

  12. Do you think Brady should wear all 5 of his rings on one hand this Febuary at the same time? There are so many they can be quite heavy you know.

    I do. 🙂 Might as well show them all off right? If you got it, flaunt it!

    Discuss.

  13. I would grudgingly say they are favorites because of Bill Belichick. I remember when Brady got hurt the first game of 2008 and was lost for the season. I figured the Bills had a chance. Then the Patriots went 11-5 with Matt Cassel.

  14. logicalvoicepft says:
    Jul 15, 2016 2:39 PM
    When he comes back from suspension the Browns are gonna smoke him and introduce him to the Dogg Pound while RGIII shows everyone who the daddy is at the QB position. Browns 52 Patriots 0.
    —————————————————————–

    I literally spit out my drink.

  15. Denver is NOT on the level of NEngland and Pittsburgh this year. They’ll struggle to win their division.

  16. As pointed out many times, Vegas lines have to do with where bets are going and where they see the bets going, so they change lines to influence and get people to bet on other teams.

    The Patriots are betting favourites because that’s where the money is going, not because Vegas is picking them to win. Vegas doesn’t care who’s going to win the Super Bowl, their interest is in getting people to bet on all teams, so that they won’t lose a fortune if any one team does win.

  17. stealthjunk says:
    Jul 15, 2016 3:21 PM
    The AFC will come down to Denver, New England, and Pittsburgh this year. My sense is the team that has the home field advantage will likely head to the Super Bowl, as has been the case the past three years. It’s difficult to win on the road in any of these three cities. If New England starts off poorly without Brady for the first four games, I just don’t see them finishing with a better record than Denver and/or Pittsburgh. Denver effectively won last year’s AFC Championship when the Patriots lost to the Dolphins and handed them the #1 seed. I still don’t understand what in the world the Patriots were doing for such an important game.

    —————————————————

    I agree with the statement other than the Denver record part. Denver has QB issues bigger than last year with no Osweiler to save the day. Manning threw ducks, but he could still run an offense and manage a game.

    Denver will be lucky to win 10 this year.

  18. “There’s also the small matter that the Patriots have shown a tendency to react favorably in the face of perceived slights in the past, which should serve them well this year”

    Yeah? How’d that work against Denver’s defense? Four straight shots at the end zone for the win, couldn’t get it done.

    Also there is the small matter of Garappolo determining whether they get home field or not.

  19. goodellMustGo says:
    Jul 15, 2016 3:24 PM
    Do you think Brady should wear all 5 of his rings on one hand this Febuary at the same time? There are so many they can be quite heavy you know.

    ————————————————————-

    He should ask Bart Starr how to handle that. He already has 5 rings….

  20. That’s what happens when you have the good fortune to play in the NFL’s worst division for the past 20 years

  21. atwatercrushesokoye says:
    Jul 15, 2016 3:55 PM
    As pointed out many times, Vegas lines have to do with where bets are going and where they see the bets going, so they change lines to influence and get people to bet on other teams.

    The Patriots are betting favourites because that’s where the money is going, not because Vegas is picking them to win. Vegas doesn’t care who’s going to win the Super Bowl, their interest is in getting people to bet on all teams, so that they won’t lose a fortune if any one team does win.
    __________________

    Very close. The first sentence is dead on but you are slightly off with the second. Odds are announced before a single bet is made and tweaked along the way the money comes in. In that respect they do in fact reflect what the odds makers believe. The interest isn’t ‘”in getting people to bet on all teams so they won’t lose a fortune” but rather to mitigate their losses on a heavily bet favorite. The difference may seem subtle but it is not. It’s actually the longer odds that will get people to bet on less favored teams in hopes of a disproportionate payout that ensures profit versus action on the favorites.

  22. teal379 says:
    Jul 15, 2016 4:10 PM
    goodellMustGo says:
    Jul 15, 2016 3:24 PM
    Do you think Brady should wear all 5 of his rings on one hand this Febuary at the same time? There are so many they can be quite heavy you know.
    ————————————————————-
    He should ask Bart Starr how to handle that. He already has 5 rings….
    —————————
    Actually, he could just ask Belichick – who already has 6.

  23. The Truth says:
    Jul 15, 2016 4:16 PM
    That’s what happens when you have the good fortune to play in the NFL’s worst division for the past 20 years
    ———————
    Yawn, “the truth”, is actually that Brady’s Pats record outside the division is better than within it, so what does that say about your division?

  24. logicalvoicepft says:
    “When he comes back from suspension the Browns are gonna smoke him and introduce him to the Dogg Pound while RGIII shows everyone who the daddy is at the QB position. ”

    bwhahahahhaahhhahhahahhahhah

    Thanks for the LAUGH!!

    – NOT a PATSY fan

  25. Yawn, Denver beat the patsy’s twice last year, WITH Brady. What’s that say about the patsy’s?

    Denver has by far the best defense in the NFL, and will have a much more productive offense with grandpa retired. I’m saying 15-1 – home field advantage throughout and a back to back championship. They’re the King until someone beats them, and that just ain’t happening.

  26. 702vikes says:
    Jul 15, 2016 2:37 PM
    Vikings this year.
    //////////////////////////////

    (yawn)

  27. The Truth says:
    Jul 15, 2016 4:16 PM
    That’s what happens when you have the good fortune to play in the NFL’s worst division for the past 20 years

    ———
    Sorry, that would be the AFC South…..and it’s not even close

  28. “That’s what happens when you have the good fortune to play in the NFL’s worst division for the past 20 years”

    One of the Pats haters favorite myths.

    Pats vs AFCE is something like .750 in the Brady Belichik era

    Pats vs entire rest of the league is something like .748

    Statistically almost identical. Ie they kick almost every team’s rear ends 3/4 of the time.

    There are a couple of teams they have a lower win% against and a couple that are higher, but that says it all.

    Doesn’t matter which team in which division or conference they’re playing, the Pats will beat you 75% of the time.

  29. ag1959 says:
    Jul 15, 2016 4:18 PM
    atwatercrushesokoye says:
    Jul 15, 2016 3:55 PM
    As pointed out many times, Vegas lines have to do with where bets are going and where they see the bets going, so they change lines to influence and get people to bet on other teams.

    The Patriots are betting favourites because that’s where the money is going, not because Vegas is picking them to win. Vegas doesn’t care who’s going to win the Super Bowl, their interest is in getting people to bet on all teams, so that they won’t lose a fortune if any one team does win.
    __________________

    Very close. The first sentence is dead on but you are slightly off with the second. Odds are announced before a single bet is made and tweaked along the way the money comes in. In that respect they do in fact reflect what the odds makers believe. The interest isn’t ‘”in getting people to bet on all teams so they won’t lose a fortune” but rather to mitigate their losses on a heavily bet favorite. The difference may seem subtle but it is not. It’s actually the longer odds that will get people to bet on less favored teams in hopes of a disproportionate payout that ensures profit versus action on the favorites.

    7 0
    Report comment
    ——————————————-

    I stand corrected good sir, thank you for the knowledge!

  30. IN ORDER TO PROTECT THE INTEGRITY OF THE LEAGUE – A COUPLE OF DEFLATEGATE LOOSE ENDS NOW NEED TO BE ADDRESSED…

    Now it’s time for the NFL to take 2 draft picks away from the Colts and suspend Andrew Luck for 4 games since in the same game on January 18, 2015 three out of the four Colts footballs that were measured and were reported to be below the required 12.5 PSI:

    Colts football #1 12.35
    Colts football #2 12.30
    Colts football #3 12.50
    Colts football #4 12.15

    NFL rules stipulate that footballs are required to be at least 12.5 psi and no more than 13.5 psi.
    Those measurements were obtained after allowing the Colts footballs to warm up indoors while the Patriots footballs were measured twice.

    It’s also time for the NFL to publically release the PSI information that was collected during the 2015 season so that everyone can see the see what happens to the PSI in footballs when they are taken outside and used in cold weather. Since the court battle is over there is no reason for this information to be kept secret any longer.

  31. Oh and how is NE favored over Seattle or even Carolina ? Both of those teams are better top to bottom than the Pats . And another thing It’s only a matter of time before TB succumbs to Father Time . And maybe it started last year when the Pats finished 3-5 after going 10-0 to start ? And before you Pats fans give me the excuses about injuries it seems like I always hear how TB does more with less . And I don’t care who he had to play with he just didn’t look the same to me in some of those games down the stretch last year .

  32. Wasn’t that the game where the Patriots didn’t even try? They only threw 5 or so passes?
    __________________

    Not trying worked out well for the Pats….

  33. nhpats says:
    Jul 15, 2016 4:54 PM
    The Truth says:
    Jul 15, 2016 4:16 PM
    That’s what happens when you have the good fortune to play in the NFL’s worst division for the past 20 years

    ———
    Sorry, that would be the AFC South…..and it’s not even close
    _______________________

    You mean AFC south since Peyton Manning left.

    Before Manning was injured, the Titans were solid (1 SB and 2 AFCCG) and the Colts were a perennial 12-win team (2 SB and 3 AFCCG).

    On the other hand, the Bills haven’t made the playoffs since the 90s and the Dolphins have only made it ONCE since 2001. The Jets have been a little better, but have also posted THREE 4-12 seasons since 2005 (OUCH).

    So, yes, over the past four years the AFC South has been the worst division in football, but for the majority of Tom Brady’s career the weakest division in football has been the AFC East.

  34. beauregard says:
    Jul 15, 2016 4:47 PM

    Yawn, Denver beat the patsy’s twice last year, WITH Brady. What’s that say about the patsy’s?

    Denver has by far the best defense in the NFL, and will have a much more productive offense with grandpa retired. I’m saying 15-1 – home field advantage throughout and a back to back championship. They’re the King until someone beats them, and that just ain’t happening.
    —————————-

    Then why do you have them going 15-1?

  35. igotgamenj says:
    Jul 15, 2016 2:45 PM

    Miami destroyed Brady and the Pats the last game and sent them to
    ____________________

    You realize they ran the ball all hut 5 plays in the first half right??? Pretty sure they weren6trying that hard to win that game.

  36. eauregard says:
    Jul 15, 2016 4:47 PM

    Yawn, Denver beat the patsy’s twice last year, WITH Brady. What’s that say about the patsy’s?

    Denver has by far the best defense in the NFL, and will have a much more productive offense with grandpa retired. I’m saying 15-1 – home field advantage throughout and a back to back championship. They’re the King until someone beats them, and that just ain’t happening.

    ____

    With Butt-fumble at QB? Bahahahahaha.

    Seriously, so many Denver fans think Sanchez is an upgrade over Manning. Its amazing. I don’t care that Manning had a rag arm last year, he was still better than what you’re going to get from Sanchez. Plus, theres no way your defense is as good this year as last. I think they’ll end up 10-6 or 9-7, kind of like the Jets/Texans from last year. Very good defenses, with suspect QB play.

  37. beauregard says:
    Jul 15, 2016 4:47 PM

    Yawn, Denver beat the patsy’s twice last year, WITH Brady. What’s that say about the patsy’s?

    Denver has by far the best defense in the NFL, and will have a much more productive offense with grandpa retired. I’m saying 15-1 – home field advantage throughout and a back to back championship. They’re the King until someone beats them, and that just ain’t happening.

    ————————————————–

    With Sanchez at QB? HA! Gee, maybe we’ll see another butt fumble this year! 10-6, no better. Dream on, Donkeys fans!

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