PFT’s Week 10 picks

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With a 10-3 performance in Week Nine, MDS chewed into my five-game lead, cutting it to four. This week, he has a chance to wipe the deficit out completely.

We disagree on six of 14 games in Week 10.

For our thoughts on all of the upcoming games, keep scrolling.

Browns at Ravens

MDS’s take: I don’t think the Browns are quite as bad a team as their winless record suggests, but I have a hard time finding a game I think they’ll win. I certainly won’t pick them to win at Baltimore, where the Ravens are looking to take a firmer grasp on first place in the AFC North.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 30, Browns 17.

Florio’s take: The Browns have seven more chances to avoid going winless. Make that six.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 24, Browns 13.

Packers at Titans

MDS’s take: The Packers haven’t played particularly well this year, but I’m just not convinced they’re the mediocre team they’ve looked like. I think over the second half of the season they’re going to show themselves to be a playoff team, and that starts Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Packers 34, Titans 14.

Florio’s take: Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy are at odds over whether the team has enough energy. They’ll need it on Sunday against a Tennessee team that remains very relevant in the AFC South.

Florio’s pick: Titans 27, Packers 24.

Vikings at Washington

MDS’s take: The Vikings are coming apart at the seams. It’s hard to believe this was the only undefeated team in the NFL a few weeks ago.

MDS’s pick: Washington 23, Vikings 20.

Florio’s take:  The team that couldn’t find its first loss now can’t find its sixth win. Washington probably isn’t the place to get it, given that Minnesota has fallen behind by at least 10 points in each of its four 2016 road games.

Florio’s pick: Washington 20, Vikings 16.

Bears at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: The Bears are a better team than their record suggests, while the Buccaneers have some pretty big flaws. I like Chicago to go to Tampa and take this one.

MDS’s pick: Bears 17, Buccaneers 13.

Florio’s take: The Bucs are 0-4 at home. If they lose this one, they may go 0-8 for the year. Which could get the itchy-trigger-fingered ownership to pull, again.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Bears 20.

Chiefs at Panthers

MDS’s take: With Alex Smith back in the lineup, the Chiefs’ offense should move the ball effectively against a mediocre Panthers defense and pull an upset in Carolina.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 28, Panthers 20.

Florio’s take: The Panthers can still do in 2016 what they failed do in 2015. One more win, and they’re only one win from .500.

Florio’s pick: Panthers 27, Chiefs 20.

Falcons at Eagles

MDS’s take: The Eagles’ defense is playing great but their offense is suspect. The Falcons’ offense is playing great but their defense is suspect. What makes the difference? I’ll say special teams, where the Eagles will get a big play that turns the game.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 24, Falcons 21.

Florio’s take: The Eagles have lost four of five games since starting 3-0. They simply don’t have the firepower to outscore the Falcons, Philly’s fourth straight opponent that had extra time to prepare.

Florio’s pick: Falcons 30, Eagles 21.

Rams at Jets

MDS’s take: With Ryan Fitzpatrick and Case Keenum first and second in the NFL in interceptions, this one could feature some ugly offensive football. I think the Jets will find a way to win ugly.

MDS’s pick: Jets 13, Rams 10.

Florio’s take: Case Keenum versus Bryce Petty or Ryan Fitzpatrick would be the fifth or sixth fight on Saturday night’s UFC event at Madison Square Garden. As Sunday matchups go, it’s even lower.

Florio’s pick: Jets 20, Rams 10.

Broncos at Saints

MDS’s take: The Broncos’ defense showed some cracks last week against the Raiders, and I think the Saints will expose a few more cracks. The Broncos’ offense, meanwhile, won’t be able to keep up.

MDS’s pick: Saints 27, Broncos 20.

Florio’s take: The defense isn’t good enough to keep the Saints’ offense from scoring more points than Trevor Siemian and company can muster.

Florio’s pick: Saints 30, Broncos 24.

Texans at Jaguars

MDS’s take: I don’t think the Texans are a very good team, but someone has to win the AFC South, and I think Houston will win in Jacksonville and take a big step toward winning the division.

MDS’s pick: Texans 24, Jaguars 16.

Florio’s take: Any given Sunday over the balance of the season could end up being Gus Bradley’s last stand. With the Texans rested and ready to try to hold off the Colts and Titans, this could be the weekend that becomes the final straw, if the Jaguars aren’t competitive. I think they will be, but not enough to prevail.

Florio’s pick: Texans 27, Jaguars 23.

Dolphins at Chargers

MDS’s take: Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill struggles under pressure, and Chargers rookie pass rusher Joey Bosa is going to make Tannehill’s life miserable on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 20, Dolphins 13.

Florio’s take: It’s the biggest test yet for the new-look Dolphins, who have won three in a row at home and now play two games in Southern California. Between the two, Miami has a more realistic path to the postseason, which gives them an edge.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 27, Chargers 24.

Cowboys at Steelers

MDS’s take: I went back and forth on this one. I think the Cowboys are the better team, but I just have a hunch that they’re due for a letdown while the Steelers are due for a better effort than they showed last week.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 23, Cowboys 21.

Florio’s take: Living most of my life in and around Pittsburgh, I’ve learned three things about the Steelers: (1) when expected to be great, they usually underachieve; (2) when expected to be bad, they typically overachieve; and (3) when facing a quality team at home while wounded, they are dangerous.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 24, Cowboys 21.

49ers at Cardinals

MDS’s take: The 49ers’ run defense is a mess, and the Cardinals have a good running back in David Johnson. He’ll have a big day on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 30, 49ers 16.

Florio’s take: Jim Tomsula won five games. Chip Kelly will have a hard time winning three.

Florio’s pick: Cardinals 38, 49ers 14.

Seahawks at Patriots

MDS’s take: In the best game of the week, I look for New England to make a statement that it’s the best team in the NFL.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 33, Seahawks 20.

Florio’s take:  The Seahawks are finding their groove, and a win over the Patriots would be symbolic and potent and potentially the catalyst for another Super Bowl run. The only problem is that the Patriots are too good, too consistent, too relentless to fall victim to a team that may see again in Houston.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 27, Seahawks 20.

Bengals at Giants

MDS’s take: The Bengals are still right in the mix in the AFC North, but that’s mostly because the AFC North stinks. I think the Giants, contenders in a much better division, are going to put a beatdown on the Bengals.

MDS’s pick: Giants 28, Bengals 13.

Florio’s take: A wild-card berth for the Giants remains possible. For the Bengals. it’s win the division or go home. With an extra week to get ready and a more talented overall team, Cincinnati gets it done.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 23, Giants 17.

59 responses to “PFT’s Week 10 picks

  1. Packers will lose. Establishing themselves as third best in their division. But will still remain in top ten power rankings, because they had a hot run in the playoffs six years ago.

  2. Patriots are too good, too consistent, too relentless to fall victim to a team that may see again in Houston.
    ========================
    See who again? Seahawks aren’t going near the Super Bowl this year with that horrid offense

  3. conormacleod says:
    Nov 10, 2016 11:07 AM
    Packers will lose. Establishing themselves as third best in their division. But will still remain in top ten power rankings, because they had a hot run in the playoffs six years ago.

    ——————————————————–

    You want some WINE to go with that SALT?

  4. Broncos won’t be able to keep pace with saints…..

    Steelers need this game more than Cowboys…

    Good calls on both

  5. Patriots are coming off a bye week,Seattle has a short week and have to travel across the country.Along with Brady playing so well,it’ll be too much for the Seahawks to handle.New England will cruise to a 31-17 victory.

  6. sb44champs says:
    Nov 10, 2016 11:17 AM
    Patriots are too good, too consistent, too relentless to fall victim to a team that may see again in Houston.
    ========================
    See who again? Seahawks aren’t going near the Super Bowl this year with that horrid offense
    ———————————-
    Hahahaha….this is what happens when the NFL does everything they can to give a struggling Drew Brees Saints team a false win. Their fans go all in and start thinking they are good. Seattle should have won by 2 scores, zebras made sure they didn’t.
    Watch out trying to use conventional thinking for the Hawk Patriot game. Seattle has had this game circled all year. Gonna be a battle.

  7. Saints over Broncos? Steelers over Cowboys?
    =========================
    If you haven’t paid attention Saints have won 4 out of last 5 games and Denver doesn’t quite look the same as last year

  8. The Steelers have been trending down for the past 5 years but Honest Mike “Twelfth Man” Tomlin will probably get another contract extension as a reward. Who needs playoff wins when the Rooneys are “blown away” by that sweet, sweet, nonsensical, gobbledygook, gibberish, double-talk that he lays down, right?

  9. “Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill struggles under pressure, and Chargers rookie pass rusher Joey Bosa is going to make Tannehill’s life miserable on Sunday.”

    ~~The Dolphins are a different team with a health and complete OL. Dolphins 27-20

  10. “The only problem is that the Patriots are too good, too consistent, too relentless to fall victim to a team that may see again in Houston.”
    .
    You forgot to add “too healthy”.
    Pats are very lucky in this area (knocking on wood as I write this, lol).

  11. The Dolphins-Chargers game is the real test for me as a fan to believe this team has turned the corner. Some people said the Jets were the test, but that was more of testing the o-line and Ajayi, which they proved to be formidable. The Jets are still a bad team and it was in Miami. The Bolt’s are playing well right now and this is the first of 5 more road games this year. I’m not expecting the Dolphins to win, but I’d like to see them put up a fight on the road. Tannehill normally plays well against the Bolt’s, the Dolphins D has been playing really well these past few games, Gordon is probably the only RB in the league who is hotter than Ajayi right now and Bosa is a beast. These teams are pretty evenly matched, should be a fun game to watch.

    Chargers 24 Dolphins 21

  12. The Pats safeties have been harsh on opposing TEs.

    Chung has given up a total of 8 receptions to TEs through 8 games, and McCourty has not given up a reception to a TE since week 1.

    Given Graham was the Hawks main weapon last week, I don’t see them scoring more than 14 this game.

  13. MDS, how on *earth* can you say “the Eagles D is playing great?” Are you watching? Or just reading the stats? The stat sheet may suggest that they’re playing well, but my GOD they have come up small in several key moments in each of the Eagles’ losses, especially that Redskins game.

  14. Brady vs Wilson has happened twice and they have both been SPECTACULAR games.

    2012 @ Seattle
    Seattle won 24-23 Seattle scores 14 points in the final 7:30 to upset NE during Wilson’s rookie year.

    2015 Super Bowl
    Pats won 28-24 with the Butler goal line INT in what is probably going to be the billed as the most dramatic SB of all time.

  15. PFT still no Cowboys believers. That’s good, they’ve been wrong all year with them and Cowboys prove them wrong every week. They’ll do it again by winning 37-21. BTW, Big Ben shouldn’t even be out there.

  16. Seattle loses in Brady’s backyard. By 10. I am sure the trolls will blame the refs when they lose.

  17. The NFL will reach a new low in prime time viewership tonight. And there is no way the Ravens blow out the Browns, either.

    Ravens 24
    Browns 19

  18. False win? Seahawks been getting ‘false’ wins for a good part of a decade… How many PI calls have they missed on Sherman? Sherman admitted that they hold on every play Lmao

  19. I agree that the Vikings will have a hard time beating the Redskins but I’m hoping they’ll start playing better now that you’re both picking against them again. I think they’re better when nobody believes in them and they’ve been doing a great job the last three weeks making that happen.

  20. conormacleod says:
    Nov 10, 2016 11:07 AM

    Packers will lose. Establishing themselves as third best in their division. But will still remain in top ten power rankings, because they had a hot run in the playoffs six years ago.
    —————————
    Third best in the division? So you’re saying both the Lions and the Bears are better than the Packers? I’m not sure I buy that.

  21. Psshh, more Seahawk bias. You don’t really expect Seattle to score 20 pt’s in this game, do you?

    Everyone knows Seattle’s MO by now, beat the really bad teams, squeak by the bad/average teams (normally with help from the refs) and lose to the good teams.

    Fun fact, Wilson has a record of 2-14 when the opposing team scores more than 25 pts, with one of the win’s coming last week against the Bills. But hey, Wilson is elite….when the defense is shutting everyone out.

    Wilson has 7 Td passes in 8 games, 5 of them coming against the Niners and Bills and a stretch of 3 games with 0 Td’s. How many QB’s can still manage to win while not contributing at all to the cause…..QB’s that get carried by good defenses. #elite?

  22. Just a week ago, Florio went through the rest of the Packers’ schedule and predicted they would finish 12-4. Now he’s predicting they’ll get their fifth loss this week. Don’t toy with my emotions this way.

  23. softhelmet says:
    Nov 10, 2016 12:08 PM

    Browns/Ravens – Another boring solo prime time night game. I’m beginning to think the NFL is out to ruin my Thursday evenings!
    —————————-

    You should ruin theirs instead!

  24. Belichick gave the blueprint on how to beat the Seahawks in the SB. The Seahawks have not been the same since. This week Belichick puts the final nail in the Seahawks coffin by handing them a humiliating loss. This game will not be close.

  25. bordner says:
    Nov 10, 2016 12:33 PM
    conormacleod says:
    Nov 10, 2016 11:07 AM

    Packers will lose. Establishing themselves as third best in their division. But will still remain in top ten power rankings, because they had a hot run in the playoffs six years ago.
    —————————
    Third best in the division? So you’re saying both the Lions and the Bears are better than the Packers? I’m not sure I buy that.
    _________

    Packer fans are still pretty high on themselves, even though they’ve lost three of their last four (like the Vikings) and the one win was against a third-string QB.

  26. Bosa name wont be called, Miami OL is healthy and Miami will run the ball more then pass. If Miami can keep the game even they will run run run and not have to pass to play catch up. Going to be a tough road test for the Fins for sure.

  27. Hey, look, there are Vikings fans here. I thought they were extinct because there was a lack of #SKOL in the last 3 weeks… Notice they have nothing to say about their own team… only the Packers. That’s cute.

  28. I find it very funny how confident patriots fans are against a team that literally at one point in the super bowl had them at midfield with a ten pt lead in the 3RD , if we don’t go for Jermaine kearse lob on 3rd and 3, we could have been looking at 31-14 and that always seems to be ignored. lol tyrod, Matt Ryan , Bree’s all tore us up , what is brady gonna do more than that because our D will be ready with Kam back and it having troubles. I’m just tryna say that pats fans are delusional if they think our team will be killed, I do think it will be close , if you think blowout you don’t know Seahawks football.

  29. Did one of you guys just say the Giants were going to lay a “beat down” on the Bengals? That’s the bold prediction of the day. I’m a Giants fan and I can’t remember the last time they laid a beat down on anymore much less on a team that’s made the playoffs a billion times in a row.

  30. Sheesh… you Pats fans are entertaining, to say the least.

    Lets just see how those Pats do against the Hawks defense….. and those CB’s of yours, please… 6’7″ JG is gonna light them up.

  31. I think this is the week the Browns get that elusive win. Remember that the only reason the Ravens won the first matchup was because Pryor got a taunting call that was a figment of the official’s imagination. Browns by 3.

    And I wouldn’t call the Panthers defense mediocre, even though that’s what the stats say. The front 4 is coming back to life, Maclin is hurt and the Chiefs are still running 25 running backs out there because none of them has performed well enough to take the job for himself. The students (Rivera, McDermott) defeat the teacher (Reid) by 3.

  32. I don’t see the Dolphins beating the Chargers. Dolphins barely beat the Jets. I’m a Jets fan, and I can tell you that my Jets are garbage. Miami gave the game away to the Jets, but the Jets were generous enough to give it right back. Chargers are a better team all around.

  33. pnwl4a says:
    Nov 10, 2016 3:39 PM
    Sheesh… you Pats fans are entertaining, to say the least.

    Lets just see how those Pats do against the Hawks defense….. and those CB’s of yours, please… 6’7″ JG is gonna light them up.

    ————-

    After seeing the Seahawks’ defense make Tyrod Taylor look like Steve Young, I’d be more worried that Brady doesn’t torch your D for more than the 4 TDs and 350 yards he did in the SB….. This could get ugly….

  34. Not going to argue that Seahawks will smash Patriots. Not even going to predict a win. Will predict the Hawks come to play and will give it their all; win or lose. Looking forward to watching this game.

    Go Hawks!

  35. In Teddy We Trust says:
    Nov 10, 2016 12:23 PM
    I agree that the Vikings will have a hard time beating the Redskins but I’m hoping they’ll start playing better now that you’re both picking against them again. I think they’re better when nobody believes in them and they’ve been doing a great job the last three weeks making that happen.

    ———–

    Of course, it might just be that they’re terrible. And mortgaged their future for a QB that wouldn’t start for most NFL teams….

  36. Yes JG is 6’7″ but the Pats have 2 tight ends who are 6’7″ and both are playing pro bowl caliber football. You can’t stop both of them and unfortunately Marty Bennett’s brother, Michael, won’t be playing and that is going to hurt the Hawks a lot.

    It will still be a great game but I think injuries, plus the MNF game followed by a 3,000 mile plane ride through 3 time zones leaves the Hawks at a disadvantage. Watch the Pats pull away in the 4th quarter and win by 2 touchdowns, like 38-24 .

    It’s about time we had a good game on prime time. Most of the games have been 5 star yawn fests. Looking forward to this one.

  37. justintuckrule says:
    Nov 10, 2016 2:21 PM

    Did one of you guys just say the Giants were going to lay a “beat down” on the Bengals? That’s the bold prediction of the day. I’m a Giants fan and I can’t remember the last time they laid a beat down on anymore much less on a team that’s made the playoffs a billion times in a row.

    ——————————————————-

    As another Giants fan, I could not agree more.

  38. “Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill struggles under pressure, and Chargers rookie pass rusher Joey Bosa is going to make Tannehill’s life miserable on Sunday.”

    ~~The Dolphins are a different team with a health and complete OL. Dolphins 27-20

    =====================================
    #17 sacked once and hit only 6 more times

    Healthy offensive line!

    W4 in a row!

  39. bert1913 says:
    Nov 10, 2016 7:18 PM
    as a life long seahawks fan, we are going get whooped…..no ball control offense
    ——
    A lifelong fan? Did you forget the fact that Seattle has yet to get whooped under Carroll/Wilson?

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