PFT’s Week 11 picks

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Last week, MDS and I disagreed on six games. We split.

Split was the operative word overall, since we both went 7-7 for the week. Which isn’t good.

Will we be any better in Week 11? See for yourself and chime in if you want.

I still lead MDS by four games. Which is horrible news for him because I stink.

Saints at Panthers

MDS’s take: Who would have guessed before the season that this game would match up two teams with losing records? I think the Panthers may go on a late-season run, but it will be too little, too late.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 24, Saints 21.

Florio’s take: This one feels like an elimination game, more for the Panthers than the Saints. And since the Panthers are at home only three days after both teams lost in heartbreaking fashion, let’s give them the edge.

Florio’s pick: Panthers 24, Saints 23.

Steelers at Browns

MDS’s take: This is one of the more winnable games remaining on the Browns’ schedule, but I expect the Steelers’ good offense to put plenty of points on the board against the Browns’ bad defense. The Browns take another step toward 0-16.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 28, Browns 14.

Florio’s take: The Browns have six more chances to avoid going 0-16. Make that five.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 35, Browns 17.

Ravens at Cowboys

MDS’s take: The Cowboys’ offensive line against the Ravens’ front seven is a great matchup for people who like old-school football. I think the Ravens may actually win that battle and hold Ezekiel Elliott in check, but I don’t think the Ravens’ offense will do much, and Dallas will win a low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 16, Ravens 13.

Florio’s take: Eight years ago, the Cowboys hand picked the Ravens to close out Texas Stadium. And the Ravens beat them. This version of the Cowboys is a far cry from that one.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 31, Ravens 20.

Jaguars at Lions

MDS’s take: The NFC North is there for the taking for the Lions, and I think they’re going to come out playing hard against a weak Jaguars team.

MDS’s pick: Lions 31, Jaguars 17.

Florio’s take: The old Lions would find a way to lose this one. Let’s see if the new Lions are any different.

Florio’s pick: Lions 27, Jaguars 17.

Titans at Colts

MDS’s take: This is a must-win for the Colts if they’re going to stay alive in the AFC South race. I think they’ll win it, perhaps thanks to their big special teams advantage.

MDS’s pick: Colts 27, Titans 20.

Florio’s take: If the Titans want to be taken seriously, they need to win at Indy — especially since the Colts already have beaten them in Tennessee. It won’t be easy, but that Colts win over the Packers doesn’t look nearly as impressive now that the Titans put up 47 against them.

Florio’s pick: Titans 27, Colts 24.

Bills at Bengals

MDS’s take: Rex Ryan just hasn’t been able to get the Bills’ defense playing well. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green should have a big day.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 30, Bills 23.

Florio’s take: Cincinnati is operating on a short week and the Bills are coming off of a bye. But the Bengals have their backs against the wall, and there’s enough left of the five-time playoff team to dig deep, at least for one week.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 27, Bills 20.

Buccaneers at Chiefs

MDS’s take: I see this as a close game, but the Chiefs’ defense should force Jameis Winston into a couple turnovers, and that will be the difference.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 17, Buccaneers 14.

Florio’s take: Despite being 17-2 in their last 19 regular-season games, the Chiefs have been cutting it close lately. And with a huge game looming against the Broncos in prime time, it could be easy to look past the Buccaneers. Count on Andy Reid not letting it happen.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 20.

Bears at Giants

MDS’s take: Year Two of the John Fox era is a disaster in Chicago. The Giants will win this one handily.

MDS’s pick: Giants 31, Bears 13.

Florio’s take: The Giants are on a roll. The Bears are in a roll. Time for the Giants to eat.

Florio’s pick: Giants 24, Bears 10.

Cardinals at Vikings

MDS’s take: This game is basically a tossup, but I’ll say the Vikings’ slide continues, from 5-0 to 5-5.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 21, Vikings 20.

Florio’s take: If the Vikings don’t win this one, they may not win another one.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 17, Cardinals 13.

Dolphins at Rams

MDS’s take: The Jared Goff era begins against a Dolphins defense that can make life hell for an opposing quarterback. I don’t like Goff’s chances.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 20, Rams 10.

Florio’s take: You want Goff? You get Goff. And so will the Dolphins.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 17, Rams 10.

Patriots at 49ers

MDS’s take: The 49ers have played a little better since Colin Kaepernick took over for Blaine Gabbert, but they’re not going to keep it close against the Patriots.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 31, 49ers 10.

Florio’s take: Four years ago, Colin Kaepernick torched the Patriots. The bad news is that Kaepernick is no longer that guy. The worse news is that Bill Belichick won’t go any easier on the 49ers because of it.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 45, 49ers 23.

Eagles at Seahawks

MDS’s take: This is a great matchup with major implications in the NFC playoff race. I’m tempted to pick the Eagles in the upset, but I think the Seahawks’ defense and the home-field advantage may give Carson Wentz a rough day.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 17, Eagles 13.

Florio’s take: This looks like the game of the week. Until kickoff.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 34, Eagles 13.

Packers at Washington

MDS’s take: The Packers are cratering, for reasons I can’t fully explain. On Sunday they looked like they were giving the kind of effort you usually see in the fourth preseason game. Mike McCarthy is running out of time to get that turned around.

MDS’s pick: Washington 24, Packers 21.

Florio’s take: If Green Bay doesn’t get things back on track this weekend, it may never happen.

Florio’s pick: Packers 30, Washington 20.

Texans at Raiders

MDS’s take: This is a big game in the AFC playoff race, and one that the Raiders should win. I’d love to see it come down to Sebastian Janikowski trying an NFL-record 65-yard field goal in the altitude of Mexico City.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 23, Texans 20.

Florio’s take: The Texans win the games they’re supposed to win and they lose the games they’re supposed to lose. If they’re ever going to break that cycle against the Raiders in Mexico City, ahora es el momento de hacerio.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 24, Texans 13.

53 responses to “PFT’s Week 11 picks

  1. Lions in first place alone in the North Division, while the Packers and Vikings will be all tied up.

  2. Cowboys fan here.

    I’m worried this one is a trap game (can’t believe I’m calling a matchup with the Ravens a “trap game.”) They need to start fast, and utilize Dez, because Zeke IS going to get held in check. I see him going under 100 yards.

    Would love to see a flea-flicker on the first play from scrimmage.

  3. Last Sunday’s losses took a lot out both
    the Panthers and Saints but I think more so the Panthers. They blew a 14 point lead in the 4th at home….wow. Anyway I think the game will end in a tie.

  4. Cowboys fan here

    I use to be worried about trap games. Having an O Line that may be one of the best in league history calms my nerves. The battle of the trenches never takes a break or gets caught sleeping. Cowboys win comfortably.

  5. Just to add a bit more fun to the competition, you should flip a coin for each game and record the results. It’d be interesting to compare against your predictions.

  6. Primetime and the fact that teams always seem to get their mojo’s back when they play the Skins, as we saw last year in the playoffs…GB may have the edge unless that lame D-coordinator has a good game plan to keep pressure on Rodgers.

  7. I don’t like the Ravens but I hope you are both wrong and that they beat Dallas.

    I don’t like the Bengals but I hope you are both right and they beat the Bills.

    I don’t care about the Bears but I hope you are both wrong and they beat the Giants.

    You are both right about the Patriots.

  8. Florio’s true lack of respect for the Eagles has been under the radar but detectable. But this week, it’s out in the open for everyone to see.

    Chip Kelly’s Eagles would get blown out like that. But Mike, this is going to be a defensive battle.

  9. Florio’s take: Four years ago, Colin Kaepernick torched the Patriots.

    41-34, not really torching someone… Colin completed 14 passes for 221 yards. Yes he had 4 TD, but also fumbled 4 times and threw a pick. I contrast Brady had a horrible game, but still had a chance at the end after a 443 yard game. Brady put up 24 in the 4th Quarter.

  10. therealtrenches says:
    Nov 17, 2016 12:01 PM

    Florio’s true lack of respect for the Eagles has been under the radar but detectable. But this week, it’s out in the open for everyone to see.

    Chip Kelly’s Eagles would get blown out like that. But Mike, this is going to be a defensive battle.
    ———————————————
    Seahawks fan here and I’m with you. I think this is going to be a defensive battle to the end. It’s going to be an ugly game for both offenses. Both pass rushes are on fire right now, and that is the Seahawks kryptonite because of our average OLine. Hopefully Florio is right though.

  11. It sounds like the Ravens will have Yanda back, which is huge for that offense. Also Dumervil might play too.

    Ravens 23, Cowboys 20.

  12. The best thing about these picks is that they drive the purples almost as nutty as “power rankings” do. Eh… I guess they have to cry about something or they just wouldn’t feel normal… or as normal as one stricken with a lifetime inferiority complex can feel, anyways.

  13. Hey Florio,

    Please look up the point differential of every Eagles game this season and revise your pick.

  14. .
    If any team had reason to be flat it’s Seattle. They had a Monday night home game, followed by an emotionally charged road game versus the Patriots, followed by this week’s home game versus the Eagles. It would be near impossible to perform at the same level as they did at Foxboro.
    .

  15. Sorry, guys but I think the Browns get their first (only?) win. And I’m a lifelong Steeler fan. Tomlin will throw “popcorn” at them.

  16. Seattle had a reason to be flat last Sunday, after a Monday game and travelling from coast to coast to play the Patriots, but they came out firing on all cylinders. If you read the predictions and comments from “Week 10 Picks” you’ll see that no one – including at least one Seahawk fan – gave them a chance. This is a team that gets better and stronger as the season goes on because of their “always compete” mentality and close-knit locker room. They’re fun to watch and good for the NFL.

  17. Dallas does indeed have a very solid O line but…Slow your roll on them being among the best of all time…they are many games away from being able to say anything like that!

  18. As a Packers fan, I can say I haven’t seen the Packers this bad very many times over the past 20 years. They might beat the Bears the rest of the way. I don’t see them beating anyone else on their schedule. The teams they play the rest of the season are already penciling in the Packers match up as a win. And with good reason. They can’t stop anyone from scoring and they have trouble scoring themselves. That doesn’t add up to wins. On the bright side, my Sundays are freed up.

  19. I’m not going to make any predictions about tonight’s game. We had absolutely no business losing to the inferior Broncos, Bucs and Chiefs, and I hate the Saints so badly I’m dying for some voodoo chicken dust to throw on them as they come out of the tunnel. So obviously my heart is way too involved to make an objective prediction.

  20. The is no way in H-ll that Seattle plays flat in front of the 12’s. Play badly? maybe but certainly not flat.

    You have to be there to understand the electricity that is created by 67,000 rabid fans.

  21. If Zeke puts the wood on the Ravens Defense this week, which is one of the better defenses…

    You can bet dollars to donuts they will beat the Seahawks in Dallas….

  22. SEA is favored but 4.5 to 7 pts by every sports book in Vegas and most pundits are picking Seattle yet people are upset at Florio for picking against the Eagles?!?!? That makes no sense at all.

    Sure, the Eagles could and may win this game however giving grief to people for picking Seattle just shows that you disillusioned Eagles fans don’t spend much time with your feet anchored in reality.

  23. Last year, the Packers had lost 4 of their last 5, and went on the road desperate to beat an up and coming team.

    Same this week. Packers will beat the Redskins 37-35 on a buzzer-beater TD.

  24. The Ravens are so unpredictable they drive me nuts!! But if the defense can play the way it did against the Steelers (that game wasn’t nearly as close as the score would indicate) I think they have a real chance against the Boys. Dallas’s defense doesn’t scare anyone.

    Ravens 20
    Boys 14

  25. “Experts” were calling the Browns game a trap for Dallas. But the Browns might lose to some high school teams, they’re so bad. The Ravens? THIS is a trap game.

  26. ravens over cowboys…i have been critical of my ravens all season..including flacco..games like this where the ravens “can’t” win…they do.. joe wakes up and the intensity shows up

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