PFT’s Week 13 picks

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And then there was one.

As in one game separating MDS and yours truly in the full-season picks contest. He swept the two disagreements from Week 12, and now with seven disagreements in 15 games this weekend, things are about to get interesting. For him and me and pretty much no one else.

Last week, MDS went 13-3 and I was 11-5. So at least we both no longer stink as much as we used to.

Cowboys at Vikings

MDS’s take: The Vikings were the NFL’s last undefeated team this season. After Thursday night, they’ll be a .500 team.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 24, Vikings 16.

Florio’s take: If the Vikings don’t win this one, their chances of qualifying for the postseason, where they’d eventually be blown out, drop considerably. With voice of the Vikings (as well as PA and Florio podcast cohort) Paul Allen convinced the home team will win, I’ll humor him on this one. Especially since, if he’s wrong, I’ll have a tangible reason for reminding him of it on a regular basis, indefinitely. Besides, the Cowboys may now assume that they’re facing the likes of the Browns, 49ers, and Bears again, given the absence of coach Mike Zimmer.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 24, Cowboys 20.

Chiefs at Falcons

MDS’s take: A good interconference game between two teams that would be in the playoffs today. I’ll take the home team in a close one.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 20, Chiefs 17.

Florio’s take: For the second time this year, the Falcons face a team that played nearly five full quarters in the prior game. This time, however, the Atlanta foe got a full week to recover. And the Chiefs as of right now are better than the Bucs were a months ago.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 27, Falcons 23.

Lions at Saints

MDS’s take: The Saints’ offense is firing on all cylinders and the Lions’ defense is struggling. I see the Saints winning a high-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Saints 35, Lions 31.

Florio’s take: That string of eleven games decided by seven points or less could be ending for the Lions, and not in a good way.

Florio’s pick: Saints 31, Lions 21.

Rams at Patriots

MDS’s take: This is the easiest game on the board to pick. The Rams will get their eighth loss of the season, ensuring their 13th consecutive non-winning season.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 24, Rams 10.

Florio’s take: Bill Belichick has outscored Jeff Fisher 104-7 in their last two meetings. It likely won’t be much better this time around.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 34, Rams 13.

Broncos at Jaguars

MDS’s take: The Broncos are in danger of missing the playoffs, but when a team needs a win, a game at Jacksonville is just what the doctor ordered.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 27, Jaguars 10.

Florio’s take: Twenty years ago, the Jaguars scored a major playoff upset over a championship-caliber Broncos team. This time, it would be an even bigger surprise if Jacksonville wins.

Florio’s pick: Broncos 27, Jaguars 17.

Texans at Packers

MDS’s take: Aaron Rodgers should carve up the Texans’ defense, and Brock Osweiler won’t be able to keep up.

MDS’s pick: Packers 30, Texans 17.

Florio’s take: The Pack is/are back. Brock Osweiler is/was a misplaced investment. Green Bay can/should/will move to 6-6, and possibly to within striking distance of first place in the division.

Florio’s pick: Packers 30, Texans 20.

Eagles at Bengals

MDS’s take: Both teams are well outside playoff contention, but this isn’t a bad matchup. I see a hard-fought game decided on a Mike Nugent missed extra point.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 21, Bengals 20.

Florio’s take: The Eagles, after starting the year 3-0, have lost six of eight. The Bengals are bad this year but not so bad that they’d lose at home to a rookie quarterback with a rookie head coach that has struggled for most of the last two months.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 23, Eagles 16.

Dolphins at Ravens

MDS’s take: The strength of the Ravens is their run defense, and I think they’ll shut down Jay Ajayi, put pressure on Ryan Tannehill and win a close game.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 16, Dolphins 13.

Florio’s take: Once upon a time, a Dolphins team on a long losing streak beat the Ravens. Nine years later, the Dolphins are riding an unlikely six-game winning streak. And the Ravens once again can be involved in the termination of a Miami-related streak.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 20, Dolphins 16.

49ers at Bears

MDS’s take: This game only matters for draft positioning. The Bears will win, which keeps the 49ers alive for the first overall pick.

MDS’s pick: Bears 20, 49ers 17.

Florio’s take: San Francisco’s offense is finding its stride, even if it hasn’t found many wins. Against an overmatched Chicago team, that changes. If only for a day.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 31, Bears 23.

Bills at Raiders

MDS’s take: The Bills may need to run the table to get to the playoffs. After the Raiders beat them on Sunday, Rex Ryan’s job security will be hanging by a thread.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 24, Bills 21.

Florio’s take: The Raiders play up and down to the level of the competition, which gives Buffalo an opening to steal this one — especially if the Raiders are peeking ahead at their Thursday night showdown in Kansas City.

Florio’s pick: Bills 27, Raiders 24.

Giants at Steelers

MDS’s take: The Giants still have a chance to catch the Cowboys in the NFC East, but they’ll probably have to win out to do it. And that hope will be dashed in Pittsburgh on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 24, Giants 23.

Florio’s take: An old-school rivalry dating back to 1933, the Giants are 44-29-3 against the Steelers. The Rooneys needs this one a little more than that Maras, who are closing in on a wild-card berth and have a very rough road to the NFC East title.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 30, Giants 24.

Washington at Cardinals

MDS’s take: Although the Cardinals are one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams this season, I think their defense can hold Kirk Cousins in check and win a close game.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 17, Washington 14.

Florio’s take: Washington had extra time and Washington has extra incentive and the Cardinals are sliding out of contention, with their coach calling players out for being selfish.

Florio’s pick: Washington 34, Arizona 21.

Buccaneers at Chargers

MDS’s take: The Bucs have surged recently and gotten themselves back into the playoff race, but I see Joey Bosa making Jameis Winston’s life miserable and San Diego winning a low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 16, Buccaneers 13.

Florio’s take: It gets no easier for a Tampa Bay team riding a pair of signature wins. The Chargers would be a postseason shoo-in if they played in three or four other divisions, and the Bucs will need to find another way to get themselves in the right frame of mind to take down the Chargers. Knowing that the Falcons have lost earlier in the day (if the Chiefs prevail in Atlanta) could be the kick Tampa Bay needs.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 23, Chargers 20.

Panthers at Seahawks

MDS’s take: The Seahawks are the better team in all three phases of the game and should beat the Panthers comfortably.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 24, Panthers 14.

Florio’s take: One of the best rivalries in recent years has instantly been reduced to rubble. The Seahawks need to get back on the right track, and the Panthers have been on the wrong track all year.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 31, Panthers 20.

Colts at Jets

MDS’s take: With Andrew Luck back against a bad Jets secondary, the Colts should win this one and — if the Texans lose — move into a three-way tie in the AFC South.

MDS’s pick: Colts 30, Jets 20.

Florio’s take: It’s a rematch of Super Bowl III, and I can guarantee you won’t stay awake through all of it.

Florio’s pick: Colts 23, Jets 20.

68 responses to “PFT’s Week 13 picks

  1. If the Raiders avoid turnovers they will blow the Bills out. Carolina should have been blown out but that botched snap changed the whole game.

    Raiders4Life

  2. .
    The Rams are the Patriots most dangerous opponent. Once the Rams fall behind, they’ll do what Jeff Fisher’s teams always do. And that’s take people out. Belichick would be wise to get his starters out early. The only stat that Fisher’s interested in is, ” number of opponents put on IR”.
    .

  3. The Ravens have not scored more than 28 points in a game this season. The last time the Dolphins even gave up 28 or more points was the last time they lost a football game. This game will be yet another low-scoring event, but Miami’s streak is over.

    Ravens 17
    Dolphins 13

  4. The Bucs truly have a possible chance at taking a 5 game win streak into Dallas. Wouldn’t be surprised to see that game flexed to 8:30 SNF over the current Bengals vs Steelers matchup.

  5. Florio sorry we ruined your thanksgiving by beating your Vikings. If you were right about us we would be 2-9, sooo I’m chalking this Saints game up as a W because you picked against us. GO LIONS

  6. The Packers’ defense looked good because the Eagles had an injury-riddled offensive line, their best WR got injured, Agholor is a bum, Ryan Matthews didn’t play and Wentz has been regressing for over a month. The Packers won because they utilized the underperforming offensive weapons that we already knew they had. They’ll probably beat Houston, but the Packers are not “back” by any stretch of the imagination.

  7. Actually, the Lions defense has steadily improved. Enough, where they can contain the Saints to win this game.

  8. slamminhammy says:
    Dec 1, 2016 12:07 PM
    The Packers’ defense looked good because the Eagles had an injury-riddled offensive line, their best WR got injured, Agholor is a bum, Ryan Matthews didn’t play and Wentz has been regressing for over a month. The Packers won because they utilized the underperforming offensive weapons that we already knew they had. They’ll probably beat Houston, but the Packers are not “back” by any stretch of the imagination.

    I watched the Eagles for the first time the other night and I saw a young QB who was threading the needle with his passes over and over again to 3rd string receivers, so I dont get your “regressing” point. That kid is a good QB!!

  9. It would be surprising if more than 35,000 show up to watch the dregs of the NFC slug it out in the cold rain at Soldier Field. Thanks to injuries the Bears have much less available talent for this game than the Niners but I get the feeling the Bears are more inclined to keep giving effort for Fox than the Niners are for Chip. So I see the Bears squeaking out a close, ugly win although it’s not in their best long-term interests to do so.

  10. unclebluck says:
    Dec 1, 2016 12:20 PM
    slamminhammy says:
    Dec 1, 2016 12:07 PM
    The Packers’ defense looked good because the Eagles had an injury-riddled offensive line, their best WR got injured, Agholor is a bum, Ryan Matthews didn’t play and Wentz has been regressing for over a month. The Packers won because they utilized the underperforming offensive weapons that we already knew they had. They’ll probably beat Houston, but the Packers are not “back” by any stretch of the imagination.

    I watched the Eagles for the first time the other night and I saw a young QB who was threading the needle with his passes over and over again to 3rd string receivers, so I dont get your “regressing” point. That kid is a good QB!!
    ——————————————————
    If the previous game was the first time you’ve ever watched him, how could you know if he is progressing or regressing? Look at the past few games…obviously those accurate passes aren’t leading to points on the scoreboard.

  11. Thank you Florio for picking the Vikes…

    That all about seals it for my Cowboys….

    You would lose your job guessing weight in a carnival….

  12. “Vikes win tonight, book it!!”

    Lol whenever someone on this site uses the phrase “book it” they are invariably wrong.

  13. The Bengals lose by a missed extra point by Nugent. That’s probably what will really happen. Feel our pain.

  14. “The Saints’ offense is firing on all cylinders and the Lions’ defense is struggling.”

    They’ve won their last five games by holding all opponents to under 20 points… you might be the only one saying that their D is struggling.

  15. “Bill Belichick has outscored Jeff Fisher 104-7 in their last two meetings. ” Really, or is that a mistype and should be 104-70? If it really is 104-7, oh man, must have been really ugly to watch.

  16. MDS’s take: The strength of the Ravens is their run defense, and I think they’ll shut down Jay Ajayi, put pressure on Ryan Tannehill and win a close game.

    MDS’s pick: Ravens 16, Dolphins 13.

    ———————————————-

    Pretty accurate. I’ll take it.

  17. Still unclear why people keep pushing this narrative about Rex Ryan being on the hot seat, especially considering that the owner of the team has publicly refuted it. The Bills should go at least 8-8 this year and he’s in the second year of what I believe is a 5 year $25M guaranteed contract so I would be really surprised if he was fired. Who are they going to replace him with who’s going to be so much better?

    He’s actually made something out of quite a few scrap heap quality players over the last year or two, which is something he doesn’t get enough credit for. He’s getting production out of Zach Brown, Lorenzo Alexander, Justin Hunter, Mike Gillislee, John Miller, Brandon Tate, Nick O’Leary, Douzable, etc. Special teams are massively improved as well (in no small part due to the contributions of some of the players I just listed). Tyrod Taylor isn’t great but he’s not bad either. Again, serviceable production from a player that no one had ever heard of. That’s what coaches are supposed to do.

    Ryan can be rather annoying at times but I don’t see him getting canned this year. He should get at least 1 more season if not 2 in Buffalo. I am still pretty salty about what he did to our 2014 defense though…

  18. Florio’s take: Once upon a time, a Dolphins team on a long losing streak beat the Ravens. Nine years later, the Dolphins are riding an unlikely six-game winning streak. And the Ravens once again can be involved in the termination of a Miami-related streak.
    =====
    Historically, the ravens have been difficult for the Fins. I myself feel the ravens will likely win, mainly because it’s in B-more. However, this is no longer Cam Cameron’s (or Joe Philbin’s) team, so history has little to do with it.

  19. Florio, tonight the Cowboys will make you a believer after the Cowboys win 37-21. Bradford just can’t win.

  20. Geesh, how many times can you use the same “If the Chargers were in 3-4 other divisions they would be #1”. WE GET IT!

    That said, Bucs will win by at least 10.

  21. 2 teams overlooked Bucs and got burned… look for the Chargers to be motivated to make an example out of the bucs…
    Chargers 28
    Bucs 13

  22. New England wins by forfeit when Rams don’t show up. Fisher still thinks they play at Fenway.

  23. “Besides, the Cowboys may now assume that they’re facing the likes of the Browns, 49ers, and Bears again, given the absence of coach Mike Zimmer.”

    The Bears beat the Vikings. Dallas can coast tonight.

  24. Not optimistic about the Vikes — Zim has usually made successful halftime defensive adjustments, and tonight he’ll be home drinking beer like everyone else.

  25. I’m still waiting for the Chiefs D to play four full quarters of football. They’re good, but always lose their way at some point in each game.

  26. Although you’re right about the SNF game, you’re slightly off on how it will play out.

    Seattle’s offense is wildly inconsistent, and have needed the LOB to carry them to a few wins.

    Now that Blair Walsh is in the welfare line, the Panthers have the worst kicker in the NFL. We also have FOUR offensive linemen on IR and are starting some guy named France, who has no connection to NASCAR, at center.

    Seahawks 17
    Panthers 0

    #WhyIDrinkMore
    #OhNoWeSuckAgain
    #WellAtLeastTheSaintsSuckToo

  27. Word of caution for the gamblers out there. Sports books took a bath last week. Don’t think for a second they haven’t adjusted their lines a bit to sway you in the wrong direction. Avoid the talking heads, stay focused on your numbers and NO BAD BEATS!

  28. Chiefs 24 Falcons 13 I really like the Chiefs defense as it provides a relentless pass rush that creates turnovers and makes their offense not have to do much I think Matt Ryan struggles against them and Freeman goes quiet for this game. Ravens and Dolphins I can see going either way, but I will go with Ravens 20 Dolphins 13 as the Ravens run defense I think is the 2nd best in the league and won’t allow Ajayi to get much space and I don’t fully trust Tannehill, yet although he has improved. Finally, Patriots 27 Rams 10 as Belichick excels in making rookie quarterbacks struggle and the two back sets will be out in full force now that Gronk is gone plus Edelman and Hogan will do their damage as well.

  29. thefootballgodssay says:
    Dec 1, 2016 11:49 AM
    GIANTS 27
    Steelers 20
    Do you hear the footsteps Dallas
    They are getting LOUDER
    GO GIANTS !!!

    —————-

    That’s actually the sound of someone falling down the stairs.

    Go Cowboys.

  30. bobthebillsfan says:
    Dec 1, 2016 1:03 PM
    “Bill Belichick has outscored Jeff Fisher 104-7 in their last two meetings. ” Really, or is that a mistype and should be 104-70? If it really is 104-7, oh man, must have been really ugly to watch.

    ————

    The number is accurate. A few years ago, the score against the Rams was 45-7 and a number of years before that there was a snow game in Foxboro that Tennessee mailed in effort-wise and the score ended up 59-0. Brady had 5 TD passes–in the second quarter. That has to be a record.

    I never saw a team try less in a professional game as Tennessee did that day.

  31. Is Seattle-Carolina really the Sunday Night Game? That should get flexed, HARD. There’s at least 5 more interesting games and I’m a Seahawks fan.

    Panthers have nothing to lose, so will come out swinging, hard.

    Hawks SHOULD win so it will either be a boring game or it will be a close game due to the better team playing bad football. LOSE/LOSE.

  32. Lol at the Packer bias.

    Also I love that people keep downplaying the Bucs and Fins.

    These two teams have all the writing of being dark horses for their respective conferences.

  33. Very excited for Steelers Giants matchup.
    should be flexed to primetime but Eli and Ben
    Antonio and Odell
    at least 4 hall of famers in this one folks
    Giants 24
    Steelers 22

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