For even the smartest sports gamblers, winning against the spread 85 percent of the time is unheard of. But this NFL season, there’s been a very simple way to win against the spread 85 percent of the time: Bet against the Browns and 49ers.
Everyone knows that the 0-14 Browns and 1-13 49ers are terrible teams, but they’ve also been terrible for the Las Vegas sports books. The Browns are 2-12 against the spread and the 49ers are 2-11-1 against the spread, making them the two worst teams against the spread in the league.
Bad teams aren’t necessarily bad against the spread: The 0-16 Lions in 2008, for instance, were 7-9 against the spread. But the Browns and 49ers keep losing by even larger margins than expected: On Sunday, the Browns were 10.5-point underdogs to the Bills and lost by 20, while the 49ers were 14-point underdogs to the Falcons and lost by 28.
According to former sports book director Micah Roberts, the books have had a bad season this year (meaning gamblers are having a good season) in large part because the public keeps betting against the Browns and 49ers, and the Browns and 49ers keep on not just losing, but losing by more than the point spread.
If all you knew about football was that the Browns and 49ers stink, and you decided to bet against the Browns and 49ers every week, you’d be an incredible 23-4-1 against the spread this year. There’s not a gambling tout anywhere who could give you a better tip than simply betting against Cleveland and San Francisco, week after week.