Patriots open as three-point favorites to win the Super Bowl

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Vegas is expecting the Patriots to win a close and high-scoring Super Bowl.

New England is a three-point favorite over Atlanta, and the over-under is set at 58.5, which would suggest the oddsmakers are expecting a final score in the neighborhood of Patriots 31, Falcons 28.

That over-under is the highest in Super Bowl history, topping the 57 for Saints-Colts in 2010. The under was the winning bet in that game, as the Saints won 31-17.

This is the fifth time the Patriots have been favored to win in their seven Super Bowls during the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era, and they’ve never covered as favorites: They were favored by seven points to beat both the Panthers and the Eagles and won both of those games by three, and they were favored by 12 and 2.5 points in their two upset losses to the Giants. The Patriots were 14-point underdogs when they upset the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI, and the line was a pick ’em when they beat the Seahawks two years ago.

96 responses to “Patriots open as three-point favorites to win the Super Bowl

  1. I don’t think people outside New England fully grasp what’s at stake. For Brady and Pats fans it’s about much more than winning another Superbowl. This is about beating Goodell and the league office. This is about beating a group of spiteful, jealous owners. This is about beating Harbaugh, Grigson, Kensil, Gardi, Vincent and Pash. This is about beating the media who falsely crucified our beloved organization and smeared the reputation of a good man who does things the right way. This is about making Mark Brunell cry. This is about giving the finger to Ted Wells and his bogus report. For Brady and Pats fans the 5th Superbowl is about sticking it to all of you.

  2. ibelievebrady says:
    Jan 23, 2017 3:16 PM
    I don’t think people outside New England fully grasp what’s at stake. For Brady and Pats fans it’s about much more than winning another Superbowl. This is about beating Goodell and the league office. This is about beating a group of spiteful, jealous owners. This is about beating Harbaugh, Grigson, Kensil, Gardi, Vincent and Pash. This is about beating the media who falsely crucified our beloved organization and smeared the reputation of a good man who does things the right way. This is about making Mark Brunell cry. This is about giving the finger to Ted Wells and his bogus report. For Brady and Pats fans the 5th Superbowl is about sticking it to all of you.
    —————————————————————-

    Amen, brother!

    Very well put!

  3. Again, the Patriots NEVER have covered the spread in any Super Bowl with B&B.

    So they either win by 1 or 2 points… or LOSE.

    Go Atlanta!

  4. Not a chance NE can win. They lack the team speed of Atlanta.

    And, Atlanta is like Seattle only 3 years ago…VERY HUNGRY!

    I would not be surprise if this game was a blowout!

    At minimum I say:

    Atlanta 38
    NE 23

  5. 1stto6 says:
    Jan 23, 2017 3:25 PM
    Again, the Patriots NEVER have covered the spread in any Super Bowl with B&B.
    So they either win by 1 or 2 points… or LOSE.
    Go Atlanta!

    —————-

    I would see the opposite. Teams tend to cover around half the time, so it should trend back to 50% and the Patriots should cover.

  6. If they played the game on the moon’s surface, I would say advantage Patriots. But this Atlanta team is fast and physical. No amount of referee-assistance can prevent Julio Jones dunking on your secondary.

    Looking forward to Brady getting his shoulder driven into hard turf.

  7. New England beat Seattle get over it dude. Doesnt matter if Lynch should have gotten the ball. He didnt they lost.

    These teams are both very good and its insane so say either one doesnt have a chance when they are both champs of their respective leagues.

  8. Last year the Patriots were favored going to Denver for the AFCC game. Manning ended up outplaying Brady by scoring twice as many TDs and we lost. Can Atlanta do the same? I highly doubt it. Patriots will roll and cover the 3 points spread. This Patriots team is special.

  9. You do know how Vegas works right? Vegas is not predicting what the score will be. They are predicting the spread that will get even bettors on each side so they rake the VIG and win. That is all they are doing.

  10. skawh says:
    Jan 23, 2017 3:27 PM
    Not a chance NE can win. They lack the team speed of Atlanta.

    And, Atlanta is like Seattle only 3 years ago…VERY HUNGRY!

    I would not be surprise if this game was a blowout!

    At minimum I say:

    Atlanta 38
    NE 23

    ————-

    I find comfort in your post. You and Osiris have never been correct in your predictions!

  11. nhpats says:
    Jan 23, 2017 3:37 PM

    I find comfort in your post. You and Osiris have never been correct in your predictions!
    —–
    That’s funny. At the season opener I predicted an Atlanta vs NE Superbowl.

    It was easy for anyone to see. NE’s schedule, only had them playing a single pro bowl QB all season.

    NE’s heralded DEFENSE is phony. Their stats are against no QBs and non playoff teams. Get a clue sonny.

  12. The O/U was at 56.5 last night and is already up another point from when this article was researched to 59 as I type this. That is one seriously attractive under.
    The spread opened at NE -3, quickly spiked up to 5 and has returned to -3 all in less than 24 hours since the first opponent was determined. This might be one of the real erratic ones. If you like NE now is the time to get in, if you favor Atlanta you should see a couple of favorable spikes.

  13. Great post. I didn’t realize NE has never covered. And, the payback wanted for the sanctions makes this even more juiced. Very entertaining.

  14. Lets be honest, the Pats are fortunate to have played in the worst division in NFL history for a decade and a half let alone a weak conference, the winning percentage would have been much lower had they competed in the NFC.
    You saw what happened this year when they played a real NFC team at home no less.

  15. Atlanta’s D has improved a lot since Dan Quinn took over and the offense is working in all cylinders. They have a dual treat at the RB position and the WRs are hard to cover. I am not saying that Atlanta will win, but they certainly can.

  16. The Patriots should be the favorites…but I gotta say I actually think Atlanta is more talented than New England.

  17. “It started seven, eight months ago, right? All for this moment. It’s about honor. It’s about respect. We win this game, you’re honored! Your kids are honored! Your families are honored! Win on three!’’

    This one is going to 4 or 5 by kickoff.

  18. 80 points in 2 playoffs games is damn impressive & the Falcons D has come out of nowhere… Very exciting team to watch & Ryan is a fellow BC alumn. I’d be all about rooting for the Falcons if they were playing anyone else in this game…

  19. 1stto6 says:
    Jan 23, 2017 3:25 PM

    Again, the Patriots NEVER have covered the spread in any Super Bowl with B&B.

    So they either win by 1 or 2 points… or LOSE.

    Go Atlanta!
    ————————-

    And Atlanta has NEVER won a Super Bowl. What’s your point?

  20. Nonsense. Vegas sets the line based on what they think the betting public will jump on. Has nothing to do with what they actually think will happen. Are the two mutually exclusive? Sometimes yes, sometimes no.

  21. Both offenses are dynamic and explosive. Where the scales start to tilt towards the Patriots is their advantage when it comes to defense, coaching and Super Bowl experience. Patriots will win by 7-10 points.

  22. OldDurtyBird says:
    Jan 23, 2017 3:54 PM
    Lets be honest, the Pats are fortunate to have played in the worst division in NFL history for a decade and a half let alone a weak conference, the winning percentage would have been much lower had they competed in the NFC.
    You saw what happened this year when they played a real NFC team at home no less.
    ======================================
    Honest? You are not being honest. The AFC has been the better conference for much of the past 15 years and Brady had to go through strong teams in Oakland, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis (in Manning’s prime), Tennessee with McNair, and Baltimore. Since Brady has been in the league, the AFC has won 10 of 16 Super Bowls.

  23. The Falcons will key on Hogan, and Floyd will come out of nowhere with a huge game. I am convinced Belichick plans this all out 5-6 games in advance.

  24. “Again, the Patriots NEVER have covered the spread in any Super Bowl with B&B.”

    yeah, the Pats were ,what, 4 point favorites over the Rams? and they tied Seattle on that pick ’em game, right?

  25. 1stto6 says:
    Jan 23, 2017 3:25 PM
    Again, the Patriots NEVER have covered the spread in any Super Bowl with B&B.

    So they either win by 1 or 2 points… or LOSE.
    ========================================
    They covered against St Louis and Seattle and gave up a garbage time TD against the Eagles. They didn’t cover but but beat Carolina. What’s you point? If you want to take Atlanta and the 3 points, have at it, but the Patriots covered in their last Super Bowl just two years ago.

    The Falcons were 11-5. If the Patriots win, I’m sure you and others will say, big deal, they got to play Atlanta in the Super Bowl. They can’t win with some of you. They’re back. Deal with it. This will be the sweetest one of all.

  26. I think the Falcons may suffer stage fright and giving BB two weeks to figure out a game plan versus a potent offense is enough for pats to win by 8.

  27. “NE’s heralded DEFENSE is phony. Their stats are against no QBs and non playoff teams. Get a clue sonny.”

    I keep hearing the parrot squawking this one repeatedly. Have been for weeks.

    You’re ignoring one tiny salient fact. That D plays agains the best QB in history every day in practice.

    Keep squawking though, its amusing

  28. “Again, the Patriots NEVER have covered the spread in any Super Bowl with B&B.”

    So what ? I don’t gamble, very few people I know are actually going to bet money on this game. Nobody cares if they cover, only if they win.

    As long as when the game is over the Pats have at least 1 more point than Atlanta I don’t care the slightest if “they cover” or not.

  29. The Patriots have covered the spread twice in 6 SB appearances. They were favored in 4 and covered 0. In 2012 it should have been a pick’em due to injuries. Overall the favorites do not fare well.

  30. Fun Fact: The Pats and Falcons first met in 1972, with the Pats winning 21-20. The Falcons drove down to the 3-yard line with seconds remaining, but Bill Bell missed WIDE on a TEN-YARD FG attempt (not tipped/deflected). Luckiest win ever for the Pats. Worst kick I have ever seen.

  31. I wouldn’t read too much into the stats differences with the defenses. New England’s schedule was a joke, and if you looked at the 5 common opponents, Atlanta did better against all 5 of them.

    It’s going to be a great game.

  32. New England had the fewest points per game allowed this season. New England was the second against the run. New England has not allowed a rusher to go over 90 yards in 25 games now. New England pass defense ranked 14th.

    Where were Atlanta’s defense rankings? Points were 23rd with 24.8 per game allowed. Rushing was 17th with 104 yards per game allowed. Passing was 27th with 263.5 allowed.

    Sorry, Atlanta’s defense isn’t going to stop the Patriots offense. Yet the New England defense if more than capable of limiting the Atlanta offense.

    Should be fun to watch.

  33. NE’s heralded DEFENSE is phony.

    ——————————-

    That is what Pittsburgh though and what the dumb media and jealous fans have brainwashed themselves to think all year long.

    One more game to go and for people like you to be embarrassed yet again.

    Very clearly, going into the weekend, the Pats had the best defense left of any of the teams and proved that on Sunday night.

    Pats 45, Atlanta 17

  34. glac1 says:
    Jan 23, 2017 4:11 PM

    If yesterday is any indication… Falcons win.
    ————————

    Against the Packers, that had no defense.

  35. logast says:
    Jan 23, 2017 4:38 PM

    New England had the fewest points per game allowed this season. New England was the second against the run. New England has not allowed a rusher to go over 90 yards in 25 games now. New England pass defense ranked 14th.

    Where were Atlanta’s defense rankings? Points were 23rd with 24.8 per game allowed. Rushing was 17th with 104 yards per game allowed. Passing was 27th with 263.5 allowed.

    Sorry, Atlanta’s defense isn’t going to stop the Patriots offense. Yet the New England defense if more than capable of limiting the Atlanta offense.

    Should be fun to watch.
    ——
    Against teams with 1 pro bowl QB all season.

    And you’re bragging about winning with that schedule? Paper tiger much?

  36. New England’s number 1 scoring defense seems maybe just a little bit misleading when you realize they played 6 of 16 games against the bottom 6 scoring offenses in the NFL.

    While Atlanta played only 2 games against the bottom 10 scoring offenses in the NFL and 3 games against top 4 scoring offenses.

    These defenses aren’t as far apart as people think they are.

  37. Every Super Bowl the Patriots have played in under Belichick and Brady has been a nail-biter, with no final margin greater than four points.

    Smart move by the odds-makers.

  38. Another thing to consider, the Falcons start 4 rookies on defense and also 4 second round players.

    I would imagine the defense is a helluva lot more acclimated to what is going on around now than they were in the middle of the season.

    The Packers know.

  39. Against teams with 1 pro bowl QB all season.

    And you’re bragging about winning with that schedule? Paper tiger much?


    We keep seeing this but somehow NE is in the SB, again.
    Remind me, which conference won the last 2 SBs?

    Keep in mind, Atlanta didn’t have to play NE. They lost to SD and KC. They smoked a depleted Seattle D and GB just came out flat, like Carolina did against Denver last year.

    Don’t bury the AFC just yet. At least let them go through the formality of the game before you buy your SB t shirts.

  40. New England beat Seattle get over it dude. Doesnt matter if Lynch should have gotten the ball. He didnt they lost.

    ——————

    I still think it’s funny that Seattle fans still can’t get past the idea that BB baited Pete Carroll into the Butler INT at the goal line.

    They knew the play was coming, but BB went with 7 DL, 1 LB, no Safeties and 3 CBs, which induced Carroll into throwing it t offset the heavy, run-stopping front.

    Get over it is right.

    BB is the greatest GM and coach ever and some people just need to accept that.

  41. Against teams with 1 pro bowl QB all season.

    And you’re bragging about winning with that schedule? Paper tiger much?

    ———-

    Dear Dopey,

    Did you just see NE dismantle the Steelers last night or not?

    The Pats D does not care what their strength of schedule is, 2 weeks from now.

    Some of you fans who aren’t all the familiar with the sport, can live in denial all you want. It would change the reality.

    It will be tough for Atlanta to score than 21 points in this game.

    Meanwhile, it will be VERY tough for Atlanta’s D to hold NE under 30.

  42. Skawh is so full of it. He never predicted Atlanta and NE. Nor should it have been expected because of a week schedule lol.

    The fact of the matter is that going into this season it looked like the Patriots had a tough schedule. No one figured that Cincy and Arizona were going to colapse like they did. And everyone was already counting a loss in Miami and Denver because apparently Brady can’t win in those places. As for Atlanta…they surprised everyone.

    The fact of the matter is that the reason the Patriots have an easy schedule every year is because they make all the teams they play look bad.

    Also the NFC West is a real joke. Just like the NFC in general. Don’t forget that Brady has a higher winning record against them than the so called pathetic AFC East ☺

  43. I am a Packers fan and I wish the Falcons luck in the Super Bowl. They deserve to be there because they were the best team in the NFC.
    But I am rooting like hell for the Patriots to win so that lying, phony Commissioner Goodell has to hand the Lombardi Trophy to Robert Kraft and Tom Brady!! If Goodell has the guts to do it, of course!!
    I loved the shot Kraft gave him when he accepted the AFC Trophy last night!
    So, go Patriots!! I want Goodell to get booed off the stage!!
    Nothing could make me happier than to see Goodell embarrassed in front of millions of fans. It would serve him right!

  44. Remember when the Panthers looked unstoppable in 2015, leading the league in offense and scoring 500 points? (Atlanta 2016 – 540 points)

    Yeah, that was awesome.

    And remember when the Panthers looked unbeatable in the divisional and conference championship games, outscoring their opponents 80-39? (Atlanta 80-41)

    Yeah, that was awesome.

    And remember when the Panthers sh*t the bed in the Super Bowl?

    Oh yeah, that was really awesome.

  45. Pats played a fatigued Steelers team who played 2 playoff road games, got woken up at 3 A.M. in their hotel by a prankster cheats fan, and played with a depleted receiving corps. Atlanta is loaded with offensive weapons that NE hasn’t faced. Pats are in for a rude awakening.

  46. skawh says:

    That’s funny. At the season opener I predicted an Atlanta vs NE Superbowl.

    It was easy for anyone to see. NE’s schedule, only had them playing a single pro bowl QB all season.

    NE’s heralded DEFENSE is phony. Their stats are against no QBs and non playoff teams. Get a clue sonny.
    ————–
    Somebody’s still salty over not giving the ball to Lynch on the goal line.

    To you, this was the worst day of your life, but to the Pats it was just another Sunday.

  47. OldDurtyBird says:
    Jan 23, 2017 3:34 PM
    Everyone knows the New England area is a baseball town first, this phoney football bandwagon who think the NFL was created in 2002 is hilarious.ROFL

    ————————–

    Not everyone. Actually a good deal of folks know that New England isnt even a town.

  48. OldDurtyBird says:
    Jan 23, 2017 3:54 PM
    Lets be honest, the Pats are fortunate to have played in the worst division in NFL history for a decade and a half let alone a weak conference, the winning percentage would have been much lower had they competed in the NFC.
    You saw what happened this year when they played a real NFC team at home no less.
    ————
    Yeah, because the NFC is SOOO good that they win the super bowl every year…oh wait…nevermind

  49. Funny all these people who think this is going to be a blowout. Regardless of the opponent, all ofthe Patriot’s Super Bowls under BB have been decided by 4 points or less, annd every one decided on the final possession.

  50. steelercrazy says:
    Jan 23, 2017 6:15 PM
    Pats played a fatigued Steelers team who played 2 playoff road games, got woken up at 3 A.M. in their hotel by a prankster cheats fan, and played with a depleted receiving corps. Atlanta is loaded with offensive weapons that NE hasn’t faced. Pats are in for a rude awakening.

    ————
    Save the excuses. 11-2

    That’s Tom Brady’s record against your sad steelers. Also 3-0 in championship games.

    Stop making excuses after every losss and take it like a man.

  51. I was going to pull for the Falcons but when that weird owner started yapping about the sisterhood and all that nonsense, I switched over to the Patriots.

  52. The AFC has won ten of the last 16 superbowls.

    The real eastern conference here is the NFC. If Brady played with those cupcakes he’d be in his 10th or so superbowl.

  53. While in life all things are possible, the Falcons beating the Patriots this year in the Super Bowl is so unlikely as to be not worth noting.

    Brady is on the warpath, the team hasn’t put up less than 20 points for quite some time now, and they haven’t given up more than 15 in a pretty long time as well.

    I’m more likely to finally get with the bestie than the Falcons are to beat the Pats, and everyone knows that the first part of that sentence isn’t happening.

  54. I honestly don’t know who will win…. Should be another really great Super Bowl!!!
    I do wish for Pats to win, but I must admit I like Atlanta as a team….
    Go Pats!!!

  55. Unless you’re from the New England states, why would you want to see the Patriots win another Super Bowls?

    I think and hope it’s the Falcon’s time. It is time for Atlanta to get their first Super Bowl. Go Falcons!!!!!!!!!

  56. peyton42 says:
    Jan 23, 2017 7:26 PM

    And the both of the Pats playoff opponents have scored more than 15.
    ————————-

    Let’s see, 16 points, then 17 points. I guess 18 points is it for the Falcons.

    Oh well, maybe next year for Atlanta.

  57. FoozieGrooler says:
    Jan 23, 2017 7:25 PM
    Tammy will lose.
    Then he will cry.
    Then he will quit.

    ———————

    You missed spelled Cammy. And last years SB was last year and who cares?

  58. Pats fan that would agree it’s been a pretty easy go of it for them so far. It’s not their fault, can only play who is on your schedule and healthy. They did play and beat a couple teams they usually have trouble with so there’s my ray of hope.
    You can post all the stats and rankings you want, compare the teams in every way possible but it all comes down to the 1 game-this game- and who plays better.
    It’s fun to pretend we know how it will go, but we don’t know.

    That’s why they play the game

    Go Pats

  59. FoozieGrooler says:
    Jan 23, 2017 7:25 PM

    Tammy will lose.
    Then he will cry.
    Then he will quit.
    ————————————————————
    I missed the game last night – did the Steelers “lethal” offense expose the Pats defense like you predicted?

  60. the Atlanta falcons will get run over
    they are a mirror image of the Pittsburgh steelers who just felt the blount force trauma except atlantas defense is not as good as pitts and looked what happened to them
    bill will take Julio jones out of this game like he did Antonio brown
    pats win this one easy….
    the afc championship was the real superbowl this game doesn’t even scare me
    lay down the $$$$$

  61. Harder to cheat when you’re on neutral ground. Pats have never won a decisive Superbowl and Brady has been owned by Eli Manning twice when everyone expected the Patriots to kill the Giants. Like the Giants, Falcons are very hot right now. Matt Ryan is focused and his time has come. Any team that can knock down Aaron Rodgers with such ease can certainly control Tom Shady. Result? Pats tie Denver’s record for most Superbowl defeats. Atlanta gets its first ring.

  62. OldDurtyBird says:
    Jan 23, 2017 3:48 PM

    The Patriots have 1 title with an asterisk since 2005, i think the Giants and Steelers have more during that span.
    ______________________________________
    Can’t seem to find that asterisk you are referencing? Not on NFL.com or in the record books???

    Ohhhhh, you are playing “make believe”. Neat’o!

    Kiss the RingS!

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