Over-under on first-round quarterbacks is 3.5


For the first time this year, Nevada casinos are taking bets on the NFL draft, and perhaps the most interesting bet revolves around how many quarterbacks will be selected in the first round.

Vegas sports books have set the over-under at 3.5, with the under a -200 favorite and the over a +170 underdog. In other words, the oddsmakers think three or fewer first-round quarterbacks is more likely than four or more.

North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky appears to be a sure-thing first-round pick, and Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes are likely first-round picks as well. If you think those three, and only those three, are going in the first round, then you’d bet the under.

But a surprise like Cal’s Davis Webb or Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer could end up in the first round as well, perhaps pushing the first round total to four or five. And could Pittsburgh’s Nathan Peterman, Tennessee’s Joshua Dobbs or Miami’s Brad Kaaya go in the first round? Probably not, but stranger things have happened.

The most likely outcome is that Trubisky, Watson and Mahomes hear their names called Thursday night, and the other quarterbacks do not. But the NFL draft is unpredictable enough that there are no safe bets.

12 responses to “Over-under on first-round quarterbacks is 3.5

  1. If 4 are drafted one will be half as good as thought, so forget over/under. It is 3.5 dead on.

  2. You could argue that Kizer counts as half of a quarterback. Trubisky barely had half of a college career with an 8 and 5 record in 13 starts. I will bet that 4 qb’s get picked, especially since selecting one in the 1st locks in a 5 year contract. The money is on Trubisky, Watson and Mahomes getting drafted in round one. The 4th guy is up in the air. Maybe Davis Webb sneaks in there. Keep an eye on Joshua Dobbs from Tennessee. Teams love his high intelligence, character, mobility and undefeated record in bowl games. One of those early 2nd round teams may sneak into the late part of round one to get a qb.

  3. Trubisky – Browns
    Watson – Bills
    Mahomes – Cardinals
    Kizer – Steelers
    Webb – Saints

    Remaining teams looking at 1st round QBs (aka other possible destinations for the players listed above): Bears, Jets, Chargers, Chiefs, Texans

    Not saying it’s absolutely happening, but it’s absolutely a possibility when you have this many teams in need of one and with so many players as fringe 1st round prospects.

  4. Torrey says:
    Apr 26, 2017 8:02 PM

    Watson – Bills
    Nope, not gonna happen.

    With Taylor in for at least two years, watch the Bills add one, probably two WR/TE after someone agrees to a Bill’s trade down.

    add a corner and an OLB and boom…
    Next year is a better year for QBs.

  5. The voting table allows you to vote with both boxes checked. How are we ever going to know what PFT readers really think???

  6. Any QB picked in the First round will be a reach.. (Ponder anyone) You can count on it..

    Where This class QB should go.. Round 2 is the earliest.
    Kizer 3-4 round.
    Tribisky 2-3..
    Watson. 2-3..
    Mahomes.. 2-3..
    Webb 3-4..

    Chad Kelly more up-side than any of these is a steal at 6-7.. Chad Kelly is a 2nd rounder in any draft.. He will heal and mature.. Sit him 2-3 years, play behind a veteran.. Forget his off the field..

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