18 players are sure-thing first-round picks, if mock drafts are right


As we wade through the final mock drafts in the hours before the real draft allows us to throw the mocks away, there are 18 players who appear to be sure-thing first-round draft picks.

That’s based on this compilation of mock drafts from Tom Gower of Football Outsiders, which has 18 players who make every mock draft.

At the top is Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett, who is either the first overall pick or the second overall pick in all 14 of the mock drafts included by Gower. In all the mock drafts where Garrett doesn’t go first overall, North Carolina quarterback Mitchell Trubisky goes first.

Other than Garrett, no one is a Top 5 pick in every mock draft. Only three other players are in the Top 10 in every mock: LSU safety Jamal Adams, who ranges from No. 2 to No. 6, Stanford defensive lineman Solomon Thomas, who ranges from No. 2 to No. 9, and LSU running back Leonard Fournette, who ranges from No. 4 to No. 9.

Here’s the list of 18 players who appear in every first round mock draft, with the range of picks in which they go off the board.

Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett 1-2
North Carolina QB Mitchell Trubisky 1-12
LSU S Jamal Adams 2-6
Stanford DE Solomon Thomas 2-9
Ohio State CB Marshon Lattimore 3-12
LSU RB Leonard Fournette 4-9
Alabama DE Jonathan Allen 4-17
Clemson QB Deshaun Watson 4-32
Alabama TE O.J. Howard 5-12
Clemson WR Mike Williams 5-30
Ohio State S Malik Hooker 6-19
Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey 7-14
Temple LB Haason Reddick 9-16
Alabama LB Reuben Foster 9-32
Alabama CB Marlon Humphrey 11-28
Missouri DE Charles Harris 11-28
Western Kentucky G Forrest Lamp 16-29
Alabama OT Cam Robinson 16-31

11 responses to “18 players are sure-thing first-round picks, if mock drafts are right

  1. “If mock draft’s are right” well, they almost always are wrong from top to bottom. I don’t look into those “sure fire” locks..remember when Hilary became president? 😉

  2. Mock drafts are rarely “right” after the first 3-5 picks.

    Second, history shows that of those 18 “sure fire thing” picks at least half will be busts and out of the league within 3-4 years.

  3. Interesting that TJ Watt doesn’t make the list in the article.

    Just about every draft I’ve seen (mock) has him going to the Packers, which means Ted won’t take him at all but that’s not what the article is about.

  4. What would be a much more interesting statistical exercise would be –

    Look back 3-4 years at the mocks and compare them to how they actually went. Compile just who is good at saying whom is going to go when. Has nothing to do if they’re a bust or not – just when they went and to what team.

  5. Seahawks 2009 draft, couldn’t give the pick away as they were trying to trade down, so they take the guy ESPN said was ‘can’t miss’ showing on a never ending reel his 2 great college plays, running around edge like a bobble head making a sack Aaron Curry……..absolutely the worst pick in Seahawk history.

  6. .
    This year’s draft is near impossible to predict. Most years the top ten is pretty much etched in stone by this time. Tonight, only Garrett at #1 seems like a sure thing. It’s highly unlikely you could find a consensus on picks #2, #3, and #4.

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