How many quarterbacks will go in round one?

Every year, it’s one of the biggest questions entering the first night of the draft. And every year we seem to be surprised in some way by the outcome.

This year, it’s still unclear how many quarterbacks will go in round one. Three is the safest guess. Four accounts for a team like the Chiefs or Steelers taking Davis Webb, or some other team trading back in to the first round to get him. Five is even possible, if someone decides to grab DeShone Kizer before teams at the top of round two get a crack at him.

And then there’s Nathan Peterman, who most likely won’t have a shot at going in round one, but who could end up being a second-day bargain — a guy who develops more quietly and without the expectations that come from being a first-round pick.

This year, I’ve interviewed each of the top six quarterbacks, some more than once: Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Webb, Kizer, and Peterman. They each came off as smart and engaging, as guys who could capably lead an NFL offense.

Trubisky has a demeanor that seems confident, humble, and even-keeled. Watson has a quiet fire that he seems to know how to harness — and how to unleash on the biggest stages. Mahomes exudes a more youthful vibe, and he seems to be unfazed by the prospect of taking his game to the next level.

Webb comes off as earnest but sincere, a kid who loves football and can’t get enough of it, with a clear plan to coach once his playing career ends. Kizer seems like anything but a diva; he’s fully self-aware and eager to embrace the challenge of playing pro football. And Peterman has a relaxed demeanor that will allow a player to get the most out of his skills.

Of course, the biggest factors that will allow these quarterbacks to get the most out of their skills relate not to them but to their situations — coaches, systems, teammates, front offices, owners, etc. Also, the higher a guy goes, the greater the weight on his shoulders. (Conversely, the lower he goes the bigger the chip.)

Any of them could be successful, if they land in the right spot. The nature of the draft takes that completely out of their hands, putting each at the mercy of which teams pick them and whether those teams can make them successful. It’s one more reason why the players should be picking the teams and not vice-versa, but that unpopular, player-friendly view is never less popular than it will be today.