PFT’s Week Five picks

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It’s Week Five, but the magic number is seven.

Of the 14 games to be played over the next several days, MDS and I agree on seven — and disagree on seven.

I need a sweep or something close to it; with five disagreements last week, MDS went 4-1 and I went 1-4 and I’ve come to accept that I really suck at this. But, for some reason, that’s not stopping me from continuing to do it.

For all picks for Week Five, scroll on down the list of games.

Patriots at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: This is a tough one. The Bucs have been the better team so far this season, but I just can’t believe the Patriots’ defense will be as bad all year as it was in September. I see a turnaround coming for New England, starting tonight.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 27, Buccaneers 21.

Florio’s take: The Bucs aren’t quite ready for prime time, and they’re definitely not ready to outscore a more-determined-than-ever Tom Brady. Defensive issues may not be fixed in four days, but Belichick can do enough to make it better, even in a short week.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 27, Buccaneers 23.

Jets at Browns

MDS’s take: The Browns opened as favorites in this game, which shocked me. I wouldn’t pick the Browns to beat anyone right now. The Jets are at least playing hard, defying those who thought they were tanking. Amazingly, they’ll be 3-2 after Sunday’s game.

MDS’s pick: Jets 20, Browns 10.

Florio’s take: The Browns successfully tanked last year. The Jets are unsuccessfully tanking this year. The Browns are unsuccessfully not tanking this year. To both teams I say, tanks fer nuttin’.

Florio’s pick: Jets 20, Browns 14.

Panthers at Lions

MDS’s take: Both of these teams are 3-1 even though Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton haven’t played particularly well. The Lions will win this one thanks to defense and special teams.

MDS’s pick: Lions 17, Panthers 13.

Florio’s take: Surprisingly great game pits a recently dominant team against a potentially dominant team. Cam Newton seems to be back, and he has extra motivation to show he’s more accomplished than a quarterback who is now getting paid a lot more money than Newton. But the blowback from his stupid, sexist remark could provide just enough of a distraction to keep him, and the Panthers, from getting it done.

Florio’s pick: Lions 27, Panthers 24.

49ers at Colts

MDS’s take: I hope Jacoby Brissett gets a real chance to be the man for some team some day, because he’s shown promise two years in a row when being thrown in on short notice. I think he’ll have a solid day on Sunday as the Colts beat the 49ers.

MDS’s pick: Colts 24, 49ers 20.

Florio’s take: The 49ers don’t have many clear opportunities to win games this year. This is one of them. It’s time for Kyle Shanahan and company to get a win.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 20, Colts 16.

Titans at Dolphins

MDS’s take: Are we sure Jay Cutler is any better than Matt Moore? Because if he’s not, that signing was a huge mistake by the Dolphins. I think Cutler is going to struggle again on Sunday as the Titans win.

MDS’s pick: Titans 17, Dolphins 10.

Florio’s takeMatt Cassel vs. Jay Cutler. Must-Not-See-TV.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 17, Titans 13.

Bills at Bengals

MDS’s take: Maybe it’s a mirage because they were playing the Browns, but I think the Bengals turned a corner on Sunday. They’re going to play better football going forward and beat a good Bills team.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 24, Bills 17.

Florio’s take:  The Bill are surging. The Bengals are treading water. Buffalo takes another step toward its first playoff berth since 1999.

Florio’s pick: Bills 24, Bengals 20.

Chargers at Giants

MDS’s take: Someone will finally get their first win on Sunday, and I think it’s going to be the Giants, in a game that won’t be particularly entertaining to watch.

MDS’s pick: Giants 16, Chargers 7.

Florio’s take: It’s a road game for the Chargers. Which means it’s the same as a home game. With both teams at 0-4, someone has to win. Home team gets the edge, barely.

Florio’s pick: Giants 13, Chargers 10.

Jaguars at Steelers

MDS’s take: The Jaguars’ pass defense is excellent, and Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown probably won’t put up big numbers on Sunday. But Blake Bortles will throw a couple interceptions and allow the Steelers to win a defensive struggle.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 20, Jaguars 9.

Florio’s take: In 2007, Jaguars won twice in the same year in Pittsburgh. That’s all I’ve got on this one; the Steelers are clearly the better team in 2017.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 27, Jaguars 17.

Cardinals at Eagles

MDS’s take: The Eagles are off to a good start and their schedule only gets easier. They should get a big win against the struggling Cardinals.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 28, Cardinals 14.

Florio’s take: The Cardinals won’t be able to keep Carson Palmer from getting battered by a stout front seven, with or without Fletcher Cox.

Florio’s pick: Eagles 28, Cardinals 20.

Seahawks at Rams

MDS’s take: The Seahawks just haven’t been a very good team on either side of the ball this season, and the Rams have. It’s surprising to say this, but I think the Rams are the best team in the NFC West — by far.

MDS’s pick: Rams 31, Seahawks 13.

Florio’s take: Since winning the Super Bowl, the Seahawks are 2-4 against the Rams. And that was before the Rams figured out how to play offense. In a game that should pack the Coliseum (but won’t), the Rams secure a lead in the Fight for L.A. that they may never lose.

Florio’s pick: Rams 27, Seahawks 20.

Ravens at Raiders

MDS’s take: Can EJ Manuel lead the Raiders to a win over the Ravens? I don’t think so. If Derek Carr were starting I’d take Oakland, but with Manuel under center I’ll take Baltimore.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 20, Raiders 17.

Florio’s take: The Raiders went from being a team of destiny to being a team that is striving to hold things together while Derek Carr recovers from a broken bone in his back. The good news is that they’ll be facing a team that already has fallen apart.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 24, Ravens 13.

Packers at Cowboys

MDS’s take: In a rematch of a good playoff game from last year, the Cowboys will get their revenge and win a narrow game over the Packers.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 24, Packers 23.

Florio’s take: Last year, a Week Six win over the Packers in Green Bay put everyone on notice that the Cowboys are back. This year, a date with the Packers will put everyone on notice that the Cowboys are back to being not back.

Florio’s pick: Packers 30, Cowboys 24.

Chiefs at Texans

MDS’s take: Deshaun Watson has been outstanding for the Texans this season, but I expect him to take a step back this week against the pressure of the league’s only unbeaten team.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 35, Texans 21.

Florio’s take: The Chiefs are undefeated but not dominant. After three straight losses to Kansas City, the Texans found a way to beat them at home last year, and that was before they acquired Deshaun Watson. Look for Watson to yet again perform well on the biggest stages in football, and for the Texans to begin their climb above .500.

Florio’s pick: Texans 23, Chiefs 17.

Vikings at Bears

MDS’s take: The Bears corrected their offseason mistake and benched Mike Glennon this week, but Mitch Trubisky can’t turn the season around all by himself.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 20, Bears 16.

Florio’s take: Last year, one of Chicago’s three wins came at home against the Vikings on Monday Night Football. This year, they may not get more than three wins again, but once again one of them comes on MNF against the Vikings, in the first game played by Mitchell Trubisky.

Florio’s pick: Bears 20, Vikings 14.

43 responses to “PFT’s Week Five picks

  1. Patriots 31 Bucs 28 no the defense will not be back tonight but Tom Brady should be able to get the ball to Hogan, Amendola, and Lewis to get the offense rolling on their way to a win. Upset of the week I have to go with Ravens over the Raiders 19 to 10 since Carr is out and the Ravens are desperate. The lock of the week I hate to say it but I’m going with Bills over Bengals 27 to 20.

  2. Florio’s take: The Chiefs are undefeated but not dominant.

    Seems like they dominated the defending SB champs pretty well. Have you forgot that the Texans were dominated by the Jags? Seriously…the Jags.

  3. Lions and Saints should be a good game BUT Lion’s offense to much for Saints defense… Lions win

    Patriots not themselves, Bucs struggled against the Giants which is among the worst teams… Patriots in a usual Thursday night blow out!

  4. Even in a Super Bowl winning season (if it ever happens)….the Vikings one loss would be at Chicago. Bet a house payment on it.

  5. Chargers at Giants – Florio’s take: “…With both teams at 0-4, someone has to win.”
    Maybe, but it’s easily a 7-7 tie – Rivers makes it across midfield 3 times but twice their kicker misses and the other time Rivers throws a pick-6, while Eli stays deep in his own half except once when he gets strip-sacked for six. Then in OT Koo misses a long FG and OBJ has to leave early to see his hairdresser.

  6. The Cowboys/Packers game will be a hard fought battle. The Packers are actually capable of stopping the Cowboys, but I don’t see the other happening. With a wealth of options against a a suspect defense, the Packers get the win. 31-20

    The Vikings are a giant pool of inconsistency. That, combined with the fact that they have zero tape on Mitch Trubisky gives the edge to the home team here, 17-13.

    The Lions have looked really good, and probably would have beaten the Falcons had it not been for an antiquated rule. Look for them to continue their good year by handling the up and down Panthers. 27-21

  7. MDS’s take: The Eagles are off to a good start and their schedule only gets easier.

    The Eagles have played two 0-4 teams already. How can it possibly get any easier?

    They play on the road against CAR, DAL, SEA, LAR, NYG, and have home games against WAS, DEN, OAK, DAL.

    The home games against CHI and SF are the only easy part of their remaining schedule.

  8. Hard to pick that Packer-Cowboys game without knowing Adams and Montgomery’s status.

    If they both play, I think the Packers can win down there. If either of them are out, I’d go Cowboys.

  9. The Vikings are 3-13 at Chicago the last 16 years. They’ve lost 8 of the last 9. Even the victories have been very close. It doesn’t matter what the records are or how good either team is perceived to be, at Chicago is the toughest game of the season for the Vikings every year.

  10. The Ravens couldn’t stop a turkey from becoming Thanksgiving dinner right now.

    Raiders 27
    Ravens 14

  11. I’m really looking forward to Chargers v Giants. It likely won’t be pretty, but those guys will be busting their butts. Could get real chippy real quick. Then again, could be a snooze fest but I hope not.

  12. I’ve been a Lions fan for ten years. This is the most complete team I’ve seen. Thank you new GM Quinn

    Congrats to you guys. Enjoy the season.

    I hope everything falls into place and that New Years Eve game is played with the Division on the line!

  13. Eagles Schedule does get harder but the Eagles are the best team in the NFC East and it’s not even close, they also have a 2-0 conference record already and they are 2-0 in the NFC East. Eagles are going to run away with the East if you ask me!!

  14. Love the Eagles. Cards have been struggling but Fitz has always owned the Eagles. So don’t think for a second that this game is not going to be a tough one regardless of how Arizona has performed this season they always bring it when playing the Eagles.

  15. Cowboys are going to utterly shred the Packers. It’s going to be an embarrassment of national proportions. I see a score of something along the lines of 42-17. It’s not even going to be close, folks. Aaron Rodgers will have a face full of David Irving and DeMarcus Lawrence all day. Zeke is going to run for 125+. The only real question will be, if coach Red will set starters in the 4th quarter or not? It’s an interesting debate. That’s where most of the discussion should be. I can see both sides. Maybe play half the 4th, and set out the rest. Might be good to see Cooper Rush get some game time.

  16. I predicted 2 months ago that the Jets are so inept that they would fail at tanking and would go 7-9. By the looks of it, they might even be more inept than I thought.

  17. The Lions vs the Panthers is going to be a very good game, however, I think the game hinges on Jarrod Davis’ availability. Nick Bellore is great, and from my alma mater, but doesn’t have the wheels to keep up with McCaffrey. I think that’s the difference for the Lions defense.

    Not taking the Vikings this week is senseless. We’re talking about a Chicago team starting a rookie with zero WRs (you say the Jets have the worst WRs in the article, I would say Chicago’s are worse… Kearse, Anderson, and Kerley vs Wheaton, Wright, Thompson. Both are dumpster fires, but I’d take Kearse as the best of the bunch, and Thompson the only one with real upside..)

  18. chawkup says:

    October 5, 2017 at 12:01 pm

    Seahawks 30, Rams 10. Like the sun rising and Trump being an idiot, the Seahawks will win the NFC West.

    Another unrealistic Hawks homer. Let’s just put aside the facts that Seattle hasn’t won at the Rams in 5 years and Russell Wilson has struggled most games against them. The Hawks currently have ZERO running game, they are giving up over 5 yards a carry on defense and going against the 2nd leading rusher in the league and also going against the top scoring offense in the league. This isn’t the same ol sorry Rams who average 15 points a game. The changing of the guard might be happening in the NFC West. You might want to rethink your 30-10 butt whipping prediction.

  19. HA! Cutler vs. Cassel, wow first time that happened Cassel won 41-7, Cutler threw 2 first half picks Cassel found Moss twice and Welker once… Sammy Morris also rushed for a career best 136 yards in the first half before being injured… Cassel Cutler 2… Why isn’t this getting more attention?

  20. It pains me to say it, but with Sean Lee not practicing today it is highly likely he is out. That means clear windows for Rodgers and a loss for the Cowboys, despite getting Irving back. Hitchens is just no Sean Lee. The Boys will put up points, but we’ve already proven 30 a game doesn’t get it done with the Cowboy D. Packers 34, Cowboys 27. Cobb for 100+ and 2 TDs.

    Tonight’s game should be a nice offensive showcase. I expect the Patsies to bounce back with a win. Can’t stand them but you have to respect Belicheck’s ability to prepare them. They’ll do what he typically does – try to take away the opponent’s biggest weapon. In this case that is Mike Evans. The Bucs have a shot as the Patsies D is awful this year. If I’m Koetter I’m letting them take away Evans and go for some nice splash plays with Winston to Desean Jackson. Patriots 31, Bucs 23

  21. I would’ve much preferred a showdown versus Carolina without drama, but we just need to stay focused and not get caught up in it. Go Lions!

  22. If Jarrad Davis doesn’t play for Detroit then they are in nickel unless it’s an obvious short yardage situation. Tavon Wilson and Miles Killebrew are both capable of playing in the box, and in my opinion, even if Davis is healthy, Killebrew will be shadowing McCaffrey on 3rd downs. Looking forwards to Lions Panthers.

    Can’t believe Florio picked Detroit on the same day the NRA came out supporting some form of restriction on firearms. Time to stock up on canned goods, the end of the world really is coming.

  23. Giants over Chargers
    Dolphins over Titans
    Ravens over Raiders
    Texans over Chiefs
    Jaguars over Steelers
    Bengals over Bills
    Cowboys over Packers
    Panthers over Lions
    Seahawks over Rams
    49ers over Colts

  24. jjackwagon says:
    October 5, 2017 at 11:27 am
    Florio’s take: The Chiefs are undefeated but not dominant.

    Seems like they dominated the defending SB champs pretty well. Have you forgot that the Texans were dominated by the Jags? Seriously…the Jags.

    Beating the Pats at home is a big deal. Chiefs losing to the Texans with Brock at QB is sad. So no, the Chiefs are not dominating but they are winning.

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