Betting odds make Saquon Barkley the favorite to go first overall

Getty Images

If you’re confident enough in your own personal mock draft to put money on the first overall pick, you can. And the odds-on favorite to go first overall is Penn State running back Saquon Barkley.

Bovada is taking bets on the first overall pick, and Barkley is the favorite at +170, meaning a $100 bet on Barkley going first overall would result in a $170 payoff if he does go first next month.

After Barkley come four quarterbacks: USC’s Sam Darnold at +240, Wyoming’s Josh Allen at +400, Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield at +550 and UCLA’s Josh Rosen at +700.

The odds of any player other than Barkley and the four quarterbacks going first overall is +1500. So if you think the Browns are going to shock the world, a $100 bet will pay off at $1,500.

Those odds translate to roughly a 33 percent chance of Barkley going first overall, 23 percent for Darnold, 17 percent for Allen, 14 percent for Mayfield, 10 percent for Rosen and 3 percent for any other player.

So the Browns are about twice as likely to draft a quarterback as they are to draft Barkley. But Barkley is the favorite because no one is sure which quarterback the Browns will take.

40 responses to “Betting odds make Saquon Barkley the favorite to go first overall

  1. So when are the Browns going to get smart and start drafting DEFENSE so they can stop someone??

  2. Joe Boo and two whole chickens can’t even help. A franchise QB, some really good protection for him and then build with some decent talent. But please stay on a steady path, work your plan slowly. Stuff will come together, but it will take time.

  3. kingthielenscourt says:
    March 9, 2018 at 6:55 am
    So when are the Browns going to get smart and start drafting DEFENSE so they can stop someone??
    —-

    The Browns defense is fine. They could use a piece or two in their secondary to be sure, but their run defense was like second in the league, giving up only 3.4 YPC (2nd only to Denver), top 6 I believe in rushing yards overall. Middle of the pack when it came to passing yards surrendered but I am pretty sure Dorsey will pick up some secondary help. Linebackers suffered some injuries but feel good about that too.

    The reason the Browns gave up so many points last year is because Kizer was a Turnover machine. 22 INTs and 7 Fumbles lost in 15 games. That’s 2 turnovers a game. Not only did a lot of those end up in points, but they kept the defense on the field a lot (which hurts any team) and put a lot of teams in good field position to score.

    Their offense is, and has been the problem, not the Defense. The defense gave up far fewer yards than the Patriots, and barely more than the Eagles, our SB representatives. Fewer yards per play than 19 teams in the league (including Patriots and Steelers) etc. Facts hurt but the defense isn’t the problem. Get an effective offense that can convert and hold onto the ball.

  4. hollymolley says:
    March 9, 2018 at 7:39 am
    Joe Boo and two whole chickens can’t even help. A franchise QB, some really good protection for him and then build with some decent talent. But please stay on a steady path, work your plan slowly. Stuff will come together, but it will take time.

    —-

    Cleveland’s O-Line started the year at #2 behind the Eagles. Dropped to #14 on the year after Thomas went out, but that is hardly their biggest need. They invested heavily in it last year. I think their problem last year, again, was Kizer. O-Line should be able to hold for 3 seconds, Kizer would hold on to the ball for 5 seconds or more in passing situations. Thus the ineffectiveness of the passing game. Saquon Barkley behind that line will do fine. And ANY QB not named Kizer who can release in 3-4 seconds will do fine as well. I don’t think they are as far as people think to start being competitive.

  5. The Browns should just take Bradley Chubb first and Minkah Fitzpatrick as there second pick if that’s a possibility. The Browns need to learn from there mistakes year in year out sometimes a position is just bad luck to a franchise the QUARTERBACK position the Brown’s case. While taking Barkley first would be probably safe why not build your defence like last year with Myles Garrett, he is gonna be a good player.

  6. The Browns should do something radical.
    Don’t draft a QB. Instead draft a running back and trade the #4 pick for more picks next year.
    Then next year, when they go 1-15, they can trade down again, and repeat the process.

    The Browns will own the records for:

    1 – most draft picks/stock acquired over a 5 year period

    2 – worst record in NFL history over a 5 year period.

    Then they can continue and see if they can extend this record to 10 years.

  7. If they draft a rb at 1 instead of their biggest need which is a qb, it would be very Browns of them to do. Don’t mess around, take a qb at 1 and go from there.

  8. The 2008 Lions went 0-16 and needed help everywhere. The following draft the “experts” all said they needed to take the “safest” and “best player available”. In 2009 that was Jason Smith and Aaron Curry, both ended up being huge busts.

    Instead, Detroit took Matthew Stafford, even though the experts said he was too risky of a prospect. Can you imagine if Detroit didn’t make that move?

    Cleveland has to take the best quarterback on their board with the first pick. Anything else would be a colossal mistake. Don’t get cute.

  9. Using the first of a stockpile of high value picks on an RB would be a very poetic afterword on the Sashi Brown era.

  10. Let the overhype begin. While he had a great combine, history has shown that doesnt necessarily equate to a great NFL career. He wasnt even the best running back in the Big 10 last year.

  11. Here’s what I know. The Browns have the most money to spend. A bunch of holes to fill including the most important positions on the field – qb, playmaker, cb and possibly left tackle. The Eagles win the SB and trade for more pass rush. The Rams win their division last year; they go out and create perhaps the best secondary in the league. The Browns conversely are looking to sign AJ McCarron and revamp their uniforms. Is there any reason to think anything is ever going to be different with them. New year, same Browns ugh

  12. The Browns will take a QB at #1 and a RB in round #2. The question is will NY Shurmur push for a RB Barkley like he did in Cleve for Trent Richardson ?

  13. I bet no team will trade up and mortgage their future to pick a running back first overall. Either Cleveland picks him number 1 overall or he will picked later by a team who already has a good quarterback if Cleveland trades down for more picks.

  14. chickensalad43 says:
    March 9, 2018 at 8:36 am
    The 2008 Lions went 0-16 and needed help everywhere. The following draft the “experts” all said they needed to take the “safest” and “best player available”. In 2009 that was Jason Smith and Aaron Curry, both ended up being huge busts.

    Instead, Detroit took Matthew Stafford, even though the experts said he was too risky of a prospect. Can you imagine if Detroit didn’t make that move?

    Cleveland has to take the best quarterback on their board with the first pick. Anything else would be a colossal mistake. Don’t get cute.

    ————–

    Cleveland has the picks to trade with the Eagles and pick up Foles. Then they can draft Barkley of whomever else they want as well..

  15. If they really think one of the QB’s is the “best bet” to be a franchise QB, the Browns should take him first and then whatever the best player left on the board is with the 4th pick.

    If they think no QB here is a “best bet” but they’re all kind of equal risks, you go ahead and take Barkley. One or more of these “equal risk” QB’s will still be available with the 4th pick.

    Or not. It is the Browns, after all. They seem cursed in that even when they make the rare and seemingly correct decision, it somehow goes off the rails in spectacular fashion.

  16. Makes perfect sense. The Browns have major needs at both QB and RB. The Giants and Colts picking in the next two slots also need an RB. If I’m the Browns I take Barkley at #1 knowing I am still getting one of the top 3 QBs at #4. Depending on what the Giants do at #2 the Browns could still get their first choice QB. No way the Colts take a QB.

  17. Barkley ran behind an undersized line at PSU. He is the real deal. The Giants desperately want him. If I were the Browns, I would make noise that he is our guy. See if the Giants will flip spots and throw in their 2nd round pick as well. I know it sounds nuts, but
    Cleveland is getting closer. They must have a QB. The problem is that I don’t see a sure, can’t miss with this group.

  18. All the haters for RB’s are out in droves today. Is Barkley the best player on the board at one? IMHO, yes. All the QB’s in this draft are questionable.

    If the Browns sign McCarron to their team, they need to take Barkley and don’t look back for even a second. A good RB is a QB’s best friend. Crowell and Duke Johnson are serviceable, but that is about it.

    If you are drafting BPA, Barkley is that guy.

  19. Instead, Detroit took Matthew Stafford, even though the experts said he was too risky of a prospect. Can you imagine if Detroit didn’t make that move?
    ———————————————————————————————-
    Did I miss the Lions going to the SuperBowl since 2009? They went 2-14 with Stafford that year. Albeit an improvement from 0-16 the previous year. They haven’t even won as much as a wild card game since Stafford was drafted. Bad example.

  20. captainobvious says:
    March 9, 2018 at 10:21 am
    Instead, Detroit took Matthew Stafford, even though the experts said he was too risky of a prospect. Can you imagine if Detroit didn’t make that move?
    ************************
    Lol. Matt Stanford missed the first two years, literally, of his tenure with the Lions due to injury. And frankly, with/without Megatron/Calvin Johnson, Motor City ain’t done diddly. With regards to the Draft, you take the “Best Available” which would be Saquon Barkley and Baker Mayfield… if you wanna win.

  21. @loyalbrownsfan The likelyhood of their QB being available at #4 is good, whereas the chances that Saquon Barkley is available there are zero. Take the franchise back at #1 and there is even a possibility every single QB in the draft is there at #4.

  22. If you draft a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round that gives you 80% of what Barkley can give you, you’re fine. If you draft a qb later that gives you 80% of what the best qb can give you, you end up with Kizer.

    The Browns HAVE to identify the best qb of the bunch and take him first and not wait around to take whatever’s left at 4. Enough trading out, trading down and stockpiling picks. Find your qb and draft him.

  23. The Browns could take Barkley #1, and still get one of the better QB’s at #4 (or how about Kyle Lauletta later?). AJ McCarron could still be a factor also? The point being, the Browns can take Barkley, who should be a huge help to ANY QB, and still have fine options at QB.
    The Browns appear to be on the right track, and in pretty good shape. The wild card factor is Hue Jackson. Is he capable of coaching a winning NFL team?

  24. Draft Barkley first. He won’t be there at 4. Indy isn’t picking a QB. So only Giants will. You’ll still have your pick of the litter at 4 for QB. You do that, you’re set on O for a while. Then trade for Mathieu/Vinny Curry…sign Richard Sherman/Suh. Sign Trey Burton. And your team is ready to compete.

  25. The defense gave up far fewer yards than the Patriots

    No points or awards for yards. Points allowed should be the criteria for defensive ranking. Been saying it for 20 years.

  26. If the Browns are smart they’ll sign a free agent QB and then draft the best player in the draft which is Barkley number 1 and then if they want a young QB draft him at number 4 . Everyone of the quarterbacks coming out in the draft have flaws and could turn out to be busts too.

  27. Indy will most likely trade down. They don’t need the QB, but a team like the Cardinals do. Cleveland always tries to outsmart the other teams by trading down and always lose the guy they coveted. For gods sake…take the best QB available at #1. If only for the reason to be able to say you did it. If it doesn’t work out…at least you tried. Trading down has netted you ONE win in the last 2 years. Don’t overthink it. Get the best QB…and use the other picks to trade down and build a team around him.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to leave a comment. Not a member? Register now!