In 1999, five quarterbacks were drafted in round one. Most of them ended up being busts.
So what will happen with the quarterback quintet of 2018? The official PFT over-under for busts is 2.5.
History tells us to bet the over. But who will the busts be? The reality is that plenty of factors unrelated to the player’s skill and potential affect the final answer. Quality of coaching, stability of the coaching staff and front office, and quality of the supporting cast will impact the finished product.
If, for example, either Tim Couch or Akili Smith had ended up with the Eagles and Andy Reid in 1999, maybe they would have become stars. If Donovan McNabb had ended up in Cleveland or Cincinnati, maybe he would have been a bust. (There likely was no hope for Cade McNown.)
This year, whether and to what extent Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson will thrive hinges on those and other factors. With none of them being far superior physically, dynamics beyond their control will go a long way toward determining how dynamic their performances are perceived to be.
For now, feel free to make a guess as to which one is most likely to be a bust. Vote below, then drop a comment.