Projected win totals for gambling purposes has some interesting numbers at the bottom end

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On Sunday, we shared some information regarding the projected win totals at the top of the league, from the Westgate Suprbook. The more interesting numbers reside at the bottom.

USA Today has the full list. And it shows the Browns — who have won a total of four games in three seasons combined — at 5.5 wins. It also shows the Cardinals at 5.5 wins. (What’s worse? Being below six or having the same number as the Browns?)

Despite the fact that the Patriots’ projected win total for wagering purposes is only 11, the other three teams in the division are at 6.5 (Buffalo) or lower (the Dolphins and Jets are each at six).

Eighteen teams fit with the range from seven wins to 9.5, underscoring the notion that, for much of the league, parity is a baked-in reality.

16 responses to “Projected win totals for gambling purposes has some interesting numbers at the bottom end

  1. Do the O/U totals for all teams collectively reflect that over the course of a season it is a zero-sum game?

    For every 10 win team there has to be a 6 win team…

  2. What you do with these is bet the Under on the top 16 win totals and the Over on the bottom 16 win totals.

    There are usually more disappointments and surprises than teams that finish as expected.

  3. 5.5 wins seems a little ambitious for the Browns. It’s normal for a team that’s been a cellar dweller for a few seasons to use the talent acquired from high draft picks and some limited experience along with a last place schedule to make a leap forward– but zero wins to 6 would be crazy, all things considered.

  4. goodellisaclown says:
    April 30, 2018 at 6:40 pm
    5.5 wins seems a little ambitious for the Browns. It’s normal for a team that’s been a cellar dweller for a few seasons to use the talent acquired from high draft picks and some limited experience along with a last place schedule to make a leap forward– but zero wins to 6 would be crazy, all things considered
    ——-
    Your post is spot on, that’s a big net the other way.

    And yet as a Patriots fan I’m constantly reminded that Matt Cassel going 11-5 is the same as Brady going 16-0 (5 game swing) and the Patriots have a plug and play QB system any high schooler could succeed in.

  5. joemammy says:
    April 30, 2018 at 7:09 pm

    The Browns’ schedule is the 7th toughest 8n the NFL this year.

    Reading is fundamental…

    _____________________________

    “Last place schedule” refers to the fact that their last two in-conference games are played against the other AFC teams not already on their schedule who also finished LAST in their divisions. That’s commonly known as a “last place schedule.”

    Knowledge is power.

  6. Both Browns & Cards had it easier last year facing 23rd & 21st hardest respectively, so the switch to hard schedules for 2018 (5th & 7th respectively) will be brutal for their new QBs. Tyrod can prob still out-scramble Brown’s weakest opponents to 2 wins but not 5, but Bradford even matching last year’s 8-8 in his (and their new HC’s) settling-in year in AZ is a tough ask. Both teams and their fans need to be patient and not expect much W-L improvement until 2019 imho.

  7. xxsweepthelegxx says:
    April 30, 2018 at 7:13 pm
    goodellisaclown says:
    April 30, 2018 at 6:40 pm
    5.5 wins seems a little ambitious for the Browns. It’s normal for a team that’s been a cellar dweller for a few seasons to use the talent acquired from high draft picks and some limited experience along with a last place schedule to make a leap forward– but zero wins to 6 would be crazy, all things considered
    ——-
    Your post is spot on, that’s a big net the other way.

    And yet as a Patriots fan I’m constantly reminded that Matt Cassel going 11-5 is the same as Brady going 16-0 (5 game swing) and the Patriots have a plug and play QB system any high schooler could succeed in.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~
    The year prior, Brady’s Pats went 16-0 (18-1) and the Dolphins were 1-15. Cassel’s 11-5 was matched by Pennington’s Dolphins at 11-5 for their only div championship in…well, a very long time.

  8. This is no different than reading the horoscope. A quarterback injury could change everything. Or, abnormal weather conditions could do the same.

  9. goodellisaclown says:
    April 30, 2018 at 6:40 pm
    5.5 wins seems a little ambitious for the Browns. It’s normal for a team that’s been a cellar dweller for a few seasons to use the talent acquired from high draft picks and some limited experience along with a last place schedule to make a leap forward– but zero wins to 6 would be crazy, all things considered.

    —————————————————————————————–

    Rams went from 4-12 to 11-5 doing less than what the Browns have done this off season.

    Also keep in mind the 0-16 Browns lost 5 games by less than a touchdown and lost to the Packers in OT so that would have been 6 wins with a slightly better team. They weren’t a team that got blown out 16 straight times they were a team that could have easily been 6-10 with a better kicker or a more accurate QB.

  10. I would be willing to put some serious money on the over with the Phins. I think they will win more than 6 games.

    The Cardinals are another over bet I would take.

  11. 5.5 for the Browns is low, If the Browns had …. not great…… not good….. but just adequate QB play last year they win 6 games

  12. kamthechancellor says:

    Fraudinals have the worst odds of making the playoffs. Back to the glory days, right AZ fans?

    ——–
    Feel free to put your money where your mouth is. Why are the Fraudhawks trying to trade Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas every day of the week, and why is nobody trading for them? It must be because they’re sooo, sooo good. How’d it feel to lose to the Drew Stanton-led Cardinals in 2017?

    If they’re frauds, then what does that make the 2013s?

    A fraudulent dynasty. That’s over by the way.

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