Texans perceived chances at making it to the Super Bowl climb

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As the pieces begin to fall together in advance of the 2018 season, the fine folks at Bovada (I don’t know them personally, but they seem nice) have put together odds for the various AFC and NFC teams to make it to the Super Bowl. And there’s a surprise lurking at the top of the AFC stack.

Behind the obvious propositions — the Patriots at 9-4 and the Steelers at 9-2 sit the Texans. Yes, the Texans. Still a 10-1 longshot, the odds remain better for Houston than every other team in the conference, including the Jaguars (11-1), the Chiefs (14-1), and the Titans (16-1).

It’s not really a shocker, but it’s still a stunner. The Texans were 4-12 last year, and quarterback Deshaun Watson is coming back from a torn ACL. Also, with only six career starts, there’s still a chance that defenses over the course of a full season will figure out how to slow down what was an incredible run as a rookie.

At the other end of the spectrum are the Bills. Despite making it to the playoffs in 2017, Buffalo faces 40-1 odds to make it to the Super Bowl for the first time in 25 years, the third worst odds in the conference — and beneath the 35-1 Browns.

The longest shot in the AFC is the Jets, at 65-1, giving the AFC East three teams at the bottom: Bills, Dolphins (50-1), and New York.

18 responses to “Texans perceived chances at making it to the Super Bowl climb

  1. I’d rather spend my money on a lotto ticket. 10-1 is giving it away.

    They should have a ‘draft odds’ bet. As in the Jets picking first as per the odds above and the Pats picking last. Everything else can be in a 3 to 5 block range. Like the Cowboys picking 15 to 18 etc. Maybe they do. Considering the interest, if they don’t, maybe they should.

  2. Texans, but for key injuries, would be an uptrending org, but are rated too high this year – Watson won’t be as good his first yr back after ACL, and too much is also being expected of JJ’s first yr back. And with Jax improved & Tenn also putting up a fight these days even if Colts don’t, seems to me Texans should expect 8-8 this yr, with a slim wildcard chance rather than Div winners.

  3. Not a surprise. Outside of the Patriots (who were relatively flawed themselves), the AFC was very weak last season, and even the conference’s better teams likely would have struggled had they been in the NFC. Things WILL change this year, but as of right now it’s about projecting upside. Teams that could put it all together such as the Jaguars and Chiefs have uncertainty at the sport’s most important position, and the Steelers could easily take a step back, so it makes sense that a mega-upside team such as Houston would rank highly (whereas in the NFC there are many strong teams that are generally expected to remain strong).

  4. How much of New England’s dominance for the past 15 years is at stake if they played in a better conference? Versus the AFC North (e.g.) where the woebegone Browns – who are terrible – face perennial playoff contenders in Pittsburgh and Baltimore? And the Cincinnati Bengals are up-and-down (mostly down) over that span of time, too.

    While the Patriots enjoy a padded schedule for typically at least four games per year. Granted, it isn’t often that Buffalo & Miami & NYJ are all three “bottom five” in the same year, but it’s pretty common for them to all be bottom 10-15.

    Must be nice for B&B to have that reliable “pick-up” game.

    Don’t mind me. I’m just observing.

  5. I am not sure what is crazier.

    That a team with the NFL’s worst defense, a suspect offensive line and an inexperienced QB coming back from a torn ACL has the third best odds in the AFC.

    Or that a team hired their defensive coordinator to be head coach.

  6. … and yet the Dolphins and the Bills have been in the Playoffs for the past 2 years. They must be winning somewhere. You give credit to the Texans for have a “losing” season because they lost 2 important starters and yet the Dolphins were 10-6 and then last year lost QB Tannehill, starting CB and MLB, Oline Coach, Hurricane in FL, lost a Bye week, traveled more than any team in the NFL and they have no shot. Seriously, sure we play the Pats and they are the juggernaut, but we normally split with them. I don’t think the Dolphins or Bills will be as bad as you think.

  7. AFC South is a crap shoot at this point as every team but the Colts (even with Andrew Luck) has potential.

    AFC North is also a crap shoot as the Browns nearly beat the Steelers twice and the Ravens once last season when they were trying to tank so imagine what will happen with actual effort.

    I agree with the Bills going backward since they underestimated how good Tyrod Taylor was for their offense and the guys they replaced him with are question marks.

    If I had to choose the AFC playoffs just based on free agency and the draft it would be Patriots, Chargers, Ravens and Jaguars winning their divisions and Chiefs and Titans getting the wild card spots with Cleveland having a 7-9 season which is basically winning the superbowl for them.

  8. I don’t think Bill O’Brien is a good enough coach to get them to the super bowl. Not a bad coach, just not good enough.

  9. Well if you dig a little deeper, the Texans have a lot going for them this season – 1) The AFC is down, 2) They finally have a QB, 3) The defense returns/adds Romeo, Watt, Mercilus, Colvin, Mathieu to Clowney, McKinney and the others and they have a crazy easy schedule.

    The Texans play 7 teams that won 6 or less games; 3 rookie QBs plus 6 more returning from injury or new to the team; and 4 first year coaches.

    The offense averaged 39 points in Watson’s 4 starts with a full week’s prep. Remember, this team won 9 games and a playoff game in 2016 with Osweiler.

    Also, who else in the AFC is there after the Pats and Steelers?

  10. On paper Jacksonville is the best team in division but they also have the worst QB in the division. If the Bills had a semi competent QB in the playoffs last season, they would have beaten the Jaguars at home. Bortles looked like hot garbage trying to throw the football in that game. Given the Jaguars failed to address the QB position in the draft (they passed on Lamar Jackson), I don’t see them even winning the division.

    Luck’s health is more questionable than Watson’s so the Texans should be favored in that division. It will be another year of great defense wasted on Bortles again.

  11. I can’t believe the Browns have better odds than three other teams. Not because I think they’ll be the worst team in the AFC this season, but because there is no way any team could ever go from 0-16 to the Super Bowl in one season. Think about it; are you going to bet that something like that would happen?

  12. When the Panthers went to the SB with Jake Delhome they supposedly had the “worst” chances in the league to make the SB. Last year’s SB winner (eagles) won despite having a losing record the year before and never winning a SB as an organization. Most times these betting odd things in the nfl can be pointless.

  13. cheapseater says:
    May 8, 2018 at 7:33 am
    Jaguars are gonna love having the “disrespect” angle again.

    How in the world is 11-1 odds disrespect? Try 40-1 or 50-1 if you want a “Disrespect” angle. They believe the Jaguars are a Playoff team and the 4th best in the AFC… I would take that any day!

  14. Rob Brzezinski is a Magician says:
    May 8, 2018 at 10:59 am
    I can’t believe the Browns have better odds than three other teams. Not because I think they’ll be the worst team in the AFC this season, but because there is no way any team could ever go from 0-16 to the Super Bowl in one season. Think about it; are you going to bet that something like that would happen?
    Worst to first happens more than you think. The Rams greatest show on turf, The 1999 twins, The Cavs after Lebron came in the league. The cavs again after Lebron returned.

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