Vegas isn’t buying a quick Bears turnaround

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In Chicago, as in many NFL cities, the offseason brings hope, plausible or otherwise. And this year, the hope is more plausible than it’s been, as the Bears beef up their defense and add weapons for quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.

Las Vegas isn’t buying what the Bears are selling. The Bovada odds as to the chances of winning the NFC championship have the Bears tied for the bottom, at 40-1. (The Cardinals, also at 40-1, remain who we thought they were.)

At the top, to no surprise, are the 5-1 Eagles, following by the 6-1 Packers. The Vikings and Rams each have 7-1 odds of making it to the Super Bowl.

The presence of two NFC North teams in the top four surely influences the lack of confidence in the Bears. The presence of the Falcons and Panthers in the NFC South likely has contributed to the surprising lack of faith in the Saints, who surprisingly are at 10-1.

Vegas believes in the 49ers, moving then to 11-1, with the Seahawks dropped all the way to 20-1.

What do these numbers mean for the teams? Plenty, if they can help a coach fashion a narrative of disrespect.

41 responses to “Vegas isn’t buying a quick Bears turnaround

  1. I don’t know what all factors are used to determine the odds… but, the Packers should not be favored over MN, LA, or NO.

  2. Well, time will tell one way or another. The Bears had the hardest schedule last year and had 5 out of the 6 NFC playoff teams on their schedule, and still finished with a top-10 defense that ranked that high while being 28th in time of possession. I like their chances of improvement.

  3. I did a search for the Super Bowl odds going in to last season and the top ten was littered with teams that missed the playoffs and the Eagles were 40 to 1

    Philadelphia Eagles (40/1): Philadelphia might be tied with Minnesota for “hottest 2016 starts that ended in pain.” They went 4-0 in their first four games and 5-2 in their first seven, including a shocking 34-3 rout of the Steelers under rookie Carson Wentz, but they finished 7-9 and last in the NFC East. With the addition of LeGarrette Blount at running back and Alshon Jeffrey at receiver, the Eagles are looking to reshape themselves into a potent, bruising offense after their receiving corps literally and figuratively dropped the ball last year.

  4. I wonder what the Packers odds will drop to once Rodgers gets injured by week 3. It is going to be really crushing for them after they give him a franchise crippling contract.

  5. cueghost says:
    May 8, 2018 at 9:56 am
    I don’t know what all factors are used to determine the odds… but, the Packers should not be favored over MN, LA, or NO.
    _________________________________________________
    As a Pack fan, I totally agree. Just too many unknowns to make them a favorite. For them to challenge for the Super Bowl, their rookies will have to be studs now. Tough task. May take a year or two. Vikes are still the class of the division, if not the conference.

  6. cueghost says:
    May 8, 2018 at 9:56 am

    I don’t know what all factors are used to determine the odds… but, the Packers should not be favored over MN, LA, or NO.
    _______

    The main factor determining the odds is how much betting action they will get for a team. The Packers always have overly optimistic odds because they have a lot of fans that believe their team’s birthright is to win the Super Bowl every year. Those fans will bet on the Packers regardless of how good they should be objectively. Vegas doesn’t have to give them long odds to encourage betting because they know they’re going to get plenty of money on them anyway.

  7. We’ll see how rigged the NFL is with the 11:1 Santa Clara odds. A qb who has never completed one single season in the NFL who will get $38 million this year as part of a top 5 elite QB contract. No pressure on a 2nd year HC either, they were 1-10 before Mr. Miracle. Lots to prove to be getting 11:1 odds. Oh, and they get to play that LA defense twice a year. What are the odds that Mr. Miracle finishes the season in one piece?

  8. The NFL has become all about the QB. Vegas is high on the Packers because of Aaron Rogers and suspect of the Bears because Mitchell Trubisky is still an unknown factor. It’s the reason that Matt Ryan is using up 1/6 of his teams salary cap.

  9. Betting odds are NOT set based on Vegas’ football analysis. It’s only used to entice equal betting dollars so they make their cut regardless.

  10. And the Packers continue their run as the most overhyped overrated team in the NFL and look forward to them missing the playoffs or exiting early …

  11. It is going to be really crushing for them after they give him a franchise crippling contract.
    ——-
    Wow, it’s amazing how oblivious some of you purples are. Somehow Rodgers at $31-2 million a year is franchise crippling but $29 million for captain average is just fine?

  12. purplepride11 said:
    May 8, 2018 at 10:13 am

    I wonder what the Packers odds will drop to once Rodgers gets injured by week 3. It is going to be really crushing for them after they give him a franchise crippling contract.

    ——————————————————————————–

    Says a fan of a team that just shelled out ridiculous (desperate) guaranteed money for what amounts to a backup QB who will be playing behind a sieve of an offensive line. It’s more likely that Cousins goes down with injury than Rodgers. Speaking of franchise-crippling contracts, at least the Packers get value out of theirs!

  13. kamthechancellor says:
    May 8, 2018 at 10:38 am

    20-1 and I get Russell Wilson? Done…putting $100 down today.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The Seattle Seahawks have been declining since their one fluke SB victory. One hit wonder team is back to where they have always been….irrelevance!

  14. @ robbreznski

    If you’re theory was correct and the Packer fans would bet on any odds, Vegas would set the odds higher in order to attract gamblers with a bigger return on their investment in addition to the birth right packer fans.

    You’re theory is total BS

  15. Purplepride11 that is 1 of the dumbest narratives going around. As the cap has risen qb salaries hadn’t until recently and if you have a qb your going to pay him. Now secondly that is a really ignorant statement on your part since when Cousins signed with the Vikings his was the highest salary.

  16. It’s no slight against the Bears. They’re in a tough spot. Vikings are stacked, Rodgers always makes the Packers tough, and the Lions are a tough out. Hard to see the Bears gaining much ground on those teams this year.

    But they have the youngest QB and are forming a young core of talent. Without any major missteps, in a few years they’ll be contending.

  17. Vegas oddsmakers undoubtedly are going on the fact the Packers will have Rodgers back at qb and all their injured starters on defense back plus now having a very good,competitive defensive backfield along with a great new defensive coordinator changing completely Capers old stale defensive schemes.their offense as most realize can score points,now they can keep the other teams from scoring more.its going to be a fun season again in Green Bay on defense,especially chasing quarterbacks all over the field thanks to Pettine.

  18. @ robbreznski

    If you’re theory was correct and the Packer fans would bet on any odds, Vegas would set the odds higher in order to attract gamblers with a bigger return on their investment in addition to the birth right packer fans.

    You’re theory is total BS
    ____________________________________

    That’s not how it works. Sports books want to have the amount of bets placed on each team as close to even as possible. If they start trying to entice people to bet on a particular team and they win a Super Bowl, they’re going to lose a ton of money

  19. Public Service Announcement (PSA):

    Vegas odds are not intended to be predictions. They are based on public perception. A smart gambler uses false perception to his advantage, gambling on underdog odds when teams are publicly overrated.

    You’re welcome.

    Like someone else commented: Last year’s Super Bowl odds were vastly different than the actual outcome of the season’s games.

  20. In the real world, the Vikings chances are probably 1000-1, maybe even higher, because THEY HAVE NEVER WON A TITLE. They should rename them the Choke-kings. The only way they ever get past the Packers is if they cheap shot Rodgers and intentionally put him out. Again.

  21. .
    @kevpft

    “It’s no slight against the Bears. They’re in a tough spot. Vikings are stacked, Rodgers always makes the Packers tough, and the Lions are a tough out. Hard to see the Bears gaining much ground on those teams this year.”

    ——

    Astute analysis…. The Bears might be a much improved team but it may not show up in their record. If things stay on course, next year might be the year they challenge for the NFC North crown.
    .

  22. The Bears have a lot of work to do on their culture. Under John Fox the dysfunction of the Trestman era was replaced by a less toxic but still unacceptable environment of complacency, underachievement and lack of in-game intelligence and discipline. There will need to be evidence that Nagy is installing a true winning culture (not just continuing what’s in place) before Vegas or almost anyone else will see the Bears as a team on the up.

  23. @mantastic54 says:
    May 8, 2018 at 11:10 am

    That’s not how it works. Sports books want to have the amount of bets placed on each team as close to even as possible. If they start trying to entice people to bet on a particular team and they win a Super Bowl, they’re going to lose a ton of money
    —————————————————————————————–

    Yes it is how it works. Your talking about line bets for games and not future bets. Line bets can fluctuate hourly depending on what bet is being placed on what team. Futures will only move if there is a major injury or change of personnel. The futures line will be adjusted during the season, but if you bet it now you get the odds posted and not the odds of when the season ends.

  24. A pleasant surprise. Seattle is nowhere near the top teams among the most likely to be going to the SB. Looks like Vegas does not trust “the process” (of rebuilding) that Seattle’s front office wants their loyal fans to trust.

  25. This is kind of a non-story. +1 to previous posters who pointed out how and why Vegas odds are set. It’s about setting the money line in such a way that Vegas doesn’t lose. If there was a lot of national media hype about the Bears, there would be more money heading their way in Vegas and these odds would be different. Right now, the post-draft coverage is focused on the contenders of the recent past, Cleveland, and to a lesser extent, other teams who took QB’s early.

    That’s not to say the Bears should be a favorite to win anything in 2018. They are coming off four dismal years. But on paper the arrow seems to be pointing up. So 40-1 on the Bears looks pretty good to me compared to 40-1 on the other teams “at the bottom”. That’s why they are called longshots.

    But from a football perspective, I take nothing from this story at all.

  26. I doubt any of the NFCN teams will be a pushover this year — unless Rodgers gets hurt again.

  27. kamthechancellor says:
    May 8, 2018 at 10:38 am
    20-1 and I get Russell Wilson? Done…putting $100 down today.
    _____________________________________________________

    You know you could pick your Mother up a decent Mother’s Day gift with those $$ you’re throwing away.

  28. I don’t believe even the most optomistic bears fans believes they will be in the super bowl this year. This would be a fools bet. What realistic bear fans should expect is 8 and 8, be thrilled with anything better, and be ready for next year. This comes from a packer fan that hopes the entire nfc north becomes relevant again…..at some point in time we need another super bowl from this division ….still waiting for lions and Vikings to join that club

  29. “The Cardinals, also at 40-1, remain who we thought they were.” Thanks Florio, I broke out laughing, although I have to wonder how many readers got the joke.

  30. Being a Chicago fan, I don’t have a horse in the GB vs MN sweepstakes (although Door County is amazing).

    Still, the idea that GB can compete with Minnesota? Rogers is obviously a top 3-QB, but the rest of their roster is in shambles, and their coach is a blowhard. Rogers deserves every penny he gets…

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