Over-unders for rookie QB starts make Lamar Jackson a very good bet

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On PFT Live, we recently had some fun with rookie quarterback over-unders. (Stats wouldn’t do well as “the house,” based on some of the numbers he picked). The folks at Bovada recently set the line for games started by the five rookie first-round signal callers in 2018.

Via Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News, here are the numbers: Josh Allen, 10.5; Baker Mayfield, 9.5; Josh Rosen, 8.5; Sam Darnold, 5.5; Lamar Jackson, 0.5.

Best bet? Jackson, easily. Whether because of injury to or ineffectiveness of Joe Flacco, the Ravens slipping out of playoff contention, or the team opening a game in a Jackson package with the last pick in round one on the field for the first snap (and technically “starting”), there’s a good chance Jackson will start at least once.

For the rest, Mayfield probably won’t get to 9.5. Darnold should easily get past 5.5. Allen’s number is high, but the team has made it clear that he’ll be the Week One starter if he earns it. Ditto for Rosen, at 8.5.

Last year, former Browns quarterback DeShone Kizer led the way with 15 starts. And zero wins. And a one-way ticket to Green Bay, where plenty of work will needed to reverse the damage done by a coaching staff led arguably not by a quarterback whisperer but a quarterback silencer.

20 responses to “Over-unders for rookie QB starts make Lamar Jackson a very good bet

  1. Josh Allen is the most pro ready. Just like Wentz he ran a pro style run first offense on a team that preaches playing defense and control the clock. Allen didn’t have very good weapons so a lot of times he had to try and throw people open. The rest of the QBs will have to learn being under center and making adjustments to what they see, some will get it and some won’t at all.

  2. Probably the only way Mayfield doesn’t get more than 9.5 starts, is if Clueless Hue Jackson inexplicably sticks with his assertion that Tyrod Taylor is the starting QB, and he isn’t either overruled or fired in-season. I doubt that you take a QB #1 overall, rave about him, then have him sit behind a guy that you gave up the 65th pick for, especially for a team that was 0-16 last season?! Mayfield is either their QB of the present and future, or he’s not…

  3. I don’t get why everyone is so excited about Jackson when the Ravens have RG3 right there. Hate all you want but the guy was with two inept organizations in DC and Cleveland. This is his first real shot at competing. I wouldn’t be surprised if he not only won the starting job, but ended up having a great season.

  4. There’s a big law of diminishing returns going on in Cleveland — the more starts Mayfield gets this season, the better the chance he ends up like Kizer. He’s going into the same situation; same team; same coaches. Upper management has turned over, probably for the better, but they’re only in their first year. Takes a long time to turn an ocean liner.

  5. How much can be expected of Lamar even after some experience ? He’s handicapped by a team which for years has refused to draft good skill players on offense. When was the last time the Ravens drafted or signed a FA WR, RB, TE etc who was a wow player? No one will confuse John Coach for Life Harbaugh with Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan or Doug Pedetrson.

  6. It’s a mistake to start a rookie. It rarely works out. The great ones: Rogers, Rivers, Fouts, Farve, Brees Marino, Stauback, Montana and Young. Rookies are not used to the speed and complexities of the NFL.

  7. Sure it takes a long time to turn around an ocean liner. But it didn’t take that long to turn around the Jacksonville Jaguars, right?

  8. titimium says:
    May 12, 2018 at 4:18 pm
    No one will confuse John Coach for Life Harbaugh with Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan or Doug Pedetrson.
    # # ## ### # # ##
    Of course not, because only one of those coaches won a superbowl. Arguably because the complete ineptitude of the Patriots. If Matty P was a half decent coach, or if Brady was as good as people claim and didn’t fumble away his last chance..

  9. 7.5 games out of Mr. Glass in Arizona is highly optimistic. Rosen should be the favorite at 11.5…unless they’re factoring in Rosen getting hurt the first time a defensive lineman breathes on him (it’s a fact that he’s made of Charmin).

  10. frodoftw7 says:
    May 12, 2018 at 5:05 pm

    Sure it takes a long time to turn around an ocean liner. But it didn’t take that long to turn around the Jacksonville Jaguars, right?

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    JAX wasn’t 0 for the 2016 season coming into 2017. How long has it taken Detroit since the Millan debacle season?

  11. Darnold- Will start.
    Mayfield- is a pretty good Quarterback, but learning a pro style offense on the fly is not the best way to do it. The Browns aren’t going to make the same mistake they have repeatedly made over the years. Tyrod Taylor is going to start and most likely finish the season. The only time we will see Mayfield out on the field is when the Browns are up by several scores in the 4th quarter.
    Rosen- has the best chance at starting. If not by being the better QB, then by injury. Bradford has more of a chance of getting injured than he does finishing a season.
    Allen- will only play if AJ McCarron bombs out, which is unlikely. Even if McCarron struggles through a few games Peterman is the next step before Allen reaches the field. McDermott wants Allen to learn the right way and not trial by fire.
    Jackson- The only way Jackson makes it to the field is purely by injury to Flacco, who is about as solid as solid gets when it comes to toughing it through injuries.
    Rudolph- If Roethlisberger becomes injured then maybe, but I’d think we’d see Landry Jones before Rudolph.
    Etling- An injury to Brady would bring in Hoyer.

  12. Ravens aren’t awful with Flacco but headed for .500, and Lamar is the main offseason improvement made. So it’s a gimmie Lamar will get at least one start once the Ravens are out of contention. Take the over on 0.5.

  13. streetyson says:

    May 13, 2018 at 8:53 am

    Ravens aren’t awful with Flacco but headed for .500, and Lamar is the main offseason improvement made. So it’s a gimmie Lamar will get at least one start once the Ravens are out of contention. Take the over on 0.5.

    ———————————————————————————————

    LOL. the Ravens were 9-7 with an injured Flacco last year and now he’s healthy, AND YOU THINK THEY’RE GOING .500??!! Thanks for the laugh.

  14. Last year, former Browns quarterback DeShone Kizer led the way with 15 starts. And zero wins. And a one-way ticket to Green Bay, where plenty of work will needed to reverse the damage done by a coaching staff led arguably not by a quarterback whisperer but a quarterback silencer.

    ———————————————————————————————————

    RG3, Cody Kessler, Josh McCown and Kevin Hogan had 13 interceptions COMBINED under Hugh Jackson in 2016 with Kessler having the 2nd highest QB rating of the 2016 rookie draft class.

    Kizer had 22 interceptions by himself in 2017.

    That definitely can’t be blamed on the coaching staff if every other QB on the roster gets it but you.

  15. guitarkevin says:
    LOL. the Ravens were 9-7 with an injured Flacco last year and now he’s healthy, AND YOU THINK THEY’RE GOING .500??!! Thanks for the laugh.
    ————————
    2013 8-8
    2014 10-6
    2015 5-11
    2016 8-8

    Oh yes, what a lunatic to think they’ll finish below .500.

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