Saquon Barkley the clear favorite for rookie of the year honors

AP

It remains to be seen whether Giants running back Saquon Barkley compiles a career that catapults him to Canton. For now, though, he’s the obvious choice to emerge from his first season with a key honor: Offensive rookie of the year.

Bovada has set the odds for the award, installing Barkley as a 3/2 favorite, via Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News.

Here’s the full list: Saquon Barkley: 3/2; Baker Mayfield: 11/4; Josh Allen: 8/1; Josh Rosen: 10/1; Sam Darnold: 12/1; Rashaad Penny: 14/1; Derrius Guice: 18/1; Lamar Jackson: 20/1; Ronald Jones: 30/1; Sony Michel: 30/1; DJ Moore: 33/1; Calvin Ridley: 40/1.

A running back always represents the safest pick when it comes to rookie of the year, given the likelihood that he’ll play right away and generate yards and touchdowns. For the quarterbacks, it’s a tougher proposition, because it’s unclear when (or in the case of Mayfield) whether they’ll play at all.

At first glance, Mayfield’s odds should be longer, since the Browns seem to be determined to not put him on the field this year, like Patrick Mahomes a year ago. Allen’s and Darnold’s odds seem a little high, given the sense that the Bills and Jets respectively seem to want to get them going.

Lamar Jackson is a wildcard; the Ravens seem to be determined to find a way to get him on the field. If, when they do, he plays well, he could end up both running Joe Flacco to the bench and running away with the prize.

The one guy who likely can be written off entirely is Sony Michel. In New England’s offense, which interchanges running backs almost as frequently as a golfer changes clubs, it will be very difficult to stand out.

Over the last 20 years, running backs have won the award nine times (Kamara in 2017, Todd Gurley in 2015, Eddie Lacy in 2013, Adrian Peterson in 2007, Cadillac Williams in 2005, Clinton Portis in 2002, Anthony Thomas in 2001, Mike Anderson in 2000, Edgerrin James in 1999), quarterbacks have won it seven times (Dak Prescott in 2016, Robert Griffin III in 2012, Cam Newton in 2011, Sam Bradford in 2010, Matt Ryan in 2008, Vince Young in 2006, Ben Roethlisberger in 2004), and receivers have won it four times (Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014, Percy Harvin in 2009, Anquan Boldin in 2003, Randy Moss in 1998).

All in all, it’s a crapshoot. Who would have thought Saints running back Alvin Kamara would emerge from the pack a year ago? Vikings running back Dalvin Cook would have been a much more sensible choice in May, but a torn ACL ended his season in Week Four. Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson would have won it going away but for a November ACL tear; last year at this time, Houston had higher hopes for veteran Tom Savage.

And as several of the recent winners prove, there’s a huge difference between having a great first year and having a great career.

66 responses to “Saquon Barkley the clear favorite for rookie of the year honors

  1. Could we please wait to see how the rookies perform first before crowning one of them?

  2. Just goes to show, people will bet on anything. Making this man a favorite for ROY honors, is like predicting Ryan Leaf was the best qb pick, in the 1998 draft.
    Anything can happen between now and the end of the 2018-2019 season, ask Dalvin Cook.

  3. As a big ten fan…ive followed this guy through college. No way is he going to be ROY. Hes a 3rd round talent. If that.

  4. Let me get this right – no preseason play, just wild speculation about best drafts and rookies of the year?
    Ok, this sounds about as accurate as reading a crystal ball.

  5. Only if he can play against Akron every game. This guy has bust written all over him.

  6. indiapalealeblog says:
    May 12, 2018 at 10:15 am
    Let me get this right – no preseason play, just wild speculation about best drafts and rookies of the year?
    Ok, this sounds about as accurate as reading a crystal ball.
    ______________________

    Have you ever read the comments from Viking fans the day after the NFL Draft?
    The last 2 seasons they’d anointed Dalvin Cook, and the year before that, Laquon Treadwell as easy winners in the ROY race.
    It’s downright hilarious watching the stupid looks, on their insipid faces, as their predictions fall predictably flat.

  7. If you go watch the PFF podcast scouting the running back class predraft, they absolutely gush over Penny comparing him quite favorably to Barkley. Plus Penny is going to get a workload in Seattle as they’re committed to giving Wilson a running game. Don’t dismiss the kid in Seattle as not being a legit threat for ROTY.

  8. Barkley may be a great talent. Time will tell. But to make him the favorite for Rookie of the Year Award is crazy. He could turn out to be a total flop (probably not, but he could).

  9. Last year, the Dolphins candidate for this award blew out his knee on his first play of the exhibition season. Happens all too often … that rash of knee injuries at the beginning of the season, which makes this prediction absolutely a crap shoot.

  10. It’s asinine to say anyone is a “clear favorite” for ROY until at least week 10. See also Dalvin Cook or Kareem Hunt.

  11. Running back is one of the easier positions to learn. Having any running back the rookie of the year favorite shouldn’t be all that surprising.

  12. chumpley says:
    May 12, 2018 at 11:01 am
    Dak Prescott 2016 Rookie of the Year! Now fifth best QB in the NFC East.

    Funny Stats PROVE other wise! Know football much? Pull Daks stats for the past two years …. I’ll wait.
    In fact Dak is #1 in the Beast! W/L, Passer Rating etc ….. Know FACTS before you post.

  13. Don’t believe me? Just look at Prescott’s numbers compared to those of two newly rich QBs and Carson Wentz, a fellow 2016 draftee who was a leading MVP candidate before tearing up his knee last December:

    Dak Prescott: 65.2 percent completion rate, 6,991 pass yards, 45:17 TD-to-INT ratio, 95.5 passer rating, 22-10 W/L record.

    Jimmy Garoppolo: 67.3 percent completion rate, 2,250 pass yards, 12:5 TD-to-INT ratio, 99.7 passer rating, 7-0 W/L record.

    Case Keenum: 61.9 percent completion rate, 8,771 pass yards, 46:27 TD-to-INT ratio, 86.0 passer rating, 20-18 W/L record.

    Carson Wentz: 61.5 percent completion rate, 7,078 pass yards, 49:21 TD-to-INT ratio, 88.8 passer rating, 18-11 W/L record.

    YUP HATERS DAK STINKS LOL! RME! AND SMH!

  14. I remember when Trent Richardson was the pre-draft/post-draft “best back since Adrian Peterson”. How many of those have the media crowned recently?

  15. superfanentertainment says:

    Bold Prediction: Bears sweep ROTY honors…

    WR- Anthony Miller
    LB- Roq Smith
    ====================================

    A safe prediction: Bears miss the playoffs.

  16. I remember when Trent Richardson was the pre-draft/post-draft “best back since Adrian Peterson”. How many of those have the media crowned recently?

    =====================================================================================
    While I agree w/your statement 100%, I think these are likely Las Vegas, or some other odds makers, who put this info out there.

  17. the only reason Rashaad Penny is in the top ten for rookie of the year is because he was drafted by Seattle. Until this year, Seattle has always been near the top among teams favored to go to the SB, even though they have not been close lately. The reason is that Dallas and Seattle fans like to bet on their teams to win. That means if Seattle and its draftee are among the favorites, the fans will put down bets, and that means extra income for the casinos. Penny was projected to be a 3rd round pick, and even Seattle was confident that he would not be picked in the first round, so they traded down and still got him. With Seattle’s terrible O line, Penny would be lucky to still be the starter by mid-season.

  18. What a crock – he’s done nothing – let’s revisit this in November.

    And the former Redskin QB fraud, the Great Gimmick, had perfect training camps. It was in real game situations where the clown fell on his face and won 12 out of 32 starts as a Washington Pukeskin.

  19. Is it still a big deal if you win it by default since all the other candidates are rookie QB’s who’re being red shirted their first year? He can be absolutely terrible and by default still be the better than “stand on sidelines with clipboard”.

    With that being said Bradley Chubb is probably a sleeper in that category if he stays healthy if we’re going running back.

  20. calizcowboyz says:
    May 12, 2018 at 12:06 pm
    Don’t believe me? Just look at Prescott’s numbers compared to those of two newly rich QBs and Carson Wentz, a fellow 2016 draftee who was a leading MVP candidate before tearing up his knee last December:

    Dak Prescott: 65.2 percent completion rate, 6,991 pass yards, 45:17 TD-to-INT ratio, 95.5 passer rating, 22-10 W/L record.

    Jimmy Garoppolo: 67.3 percent completion rate, 2,250 pass yards, 12:5 TD-to-INT ratio, 99.7 passer rating, 7-0 W/L record.

    Case Keenum: 61.9 percent completion rate, 8,771 pass yards, 46:27 TD-to-INT ratio, 86.0 passer rating, 20-18 W/L record.

    Carson Wentz: 61.5 percent completion rate, 7,078 pass yards, 49:21 TD-to-INT ratio, 88.8 passer rating, 18-11 W/L record.

    YUP HATERS DAK STINKS LOL! RME! AND SMH!

    ————

    How about Dak’s postseason stats?

  21. Betting on this should be more about opportunity if you actually want to win. Barkley, Penny, and Michel will all get carries early although none are going to be behind stellar o-lines at least as we see today. The QBs are wild cards as we don’t know if any will start so I wouldn’t bet on any of them. That leaves Ridley and Moore. Ridley would have to supplant Sanu to maximize his chances. Moore has a shot to start for Carolina and if you trust Newton that’s up to you.

    In conclusion: The odds on Barkley are bad, so he’s out. Michel is one preseason fumble from being on the bench for the first 6 games (because, Hoodie) so while the potential payout is there, he’s out. Penny doesn’t benefit from any realistic attempt to revamp that terrible line, so he’s out. Moore would probably start, and at 33-1 offers a great potential payout so of those listed, he’s worth a $50 bet. That being said, I would imagine there would be a ‘field’ bet, (for those not hip to gambling vernacular: everyone else not specifically listed) and put that at a generic 20-1 which would offer nice value if a Kamara situation happened again say from WR Gallup(chance to start) WR Kirk (chance to start) or RB Guice (Wash needs bell cow RB and he may be it).

  22. I like Rashaad Penny here because not only will he be an every-down back for a Seahawks team that desperately needs a running game but he will also be returning kicks and punts so he has a chance to shine on special teams as well.

  23. Very few Running Backs from Penn State have had success in the NFL. It’s a long sad list of failures, injuries, and bad luck. While he may get quite the workload with Eli’s skills fading, I wouldn’t wager any significant money on this bet.

  24. If you’re going to bet on a complete crapshoot, Sony Michele is insane value at 30/1. Yes he’s a Pats runningback, but they will use him in the Blount role for all goal line td’s right out of the gate. He also can catch the ball, so there’s potential for him as a bellcow. The other backs are all specialty and they didn’t draft him rd 1 to not be a feature back.

    If he stays healthy he has a real shot at rookie of the year. At 30/1 I’ll put a little on him.

  25. Super bowl winner eagles fan here , licking our chops in philly waiting for this roy to test his skills against a super bowl winning D.

  26. As a giants fan I just want him on the field so the defense has to think about something else. Maybe he could be a good blocker too because the only oline member who I really know will do his job is Solder.

  27. Super bowl winner eagles fan here , licking our chops in philly waiting for this roy to test his skills against a super bowl winning D.

    If he can catch out the backfield without getting hurt you’ve got problems because you didn’t win the Superbowl with your D. You won it because the offense out scored the patriots, both defenses played horrible except for a few plays. On the other hand, you are an eagles fan and you also probably think you’re going back2back. Let’s be clear the D got you to the Superbowl, but could hardly be called a Superbowl winning D.

  28. I wouldn’t recommend an investment in Bitcoin but I would do that before wagering money on ROY.

    There’s only one ROY. At least you have a chance of dumping Bitcoin on a volatility spike.

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