Which coach will be fired first?

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The four-week stretch from the middle of June to the middle of July gives NFL coaches a rare opportunity to get away from it all. To relax, to unwind. To not worry.

For some coaches, good luck with the last part. History has proven time and again that as many of one in four NFL coaches won’t be NFL coaches six months after the start of training camp. Every year, there’s a list of coaches regarded as being on the hot seat as the season approaches.

And in more and more jurisdictions, bettors will be able to put money on which coach will be the first to have his supply of money cut off (pending a buyout).

Here’s the list, with Browns coach Hue Jackson as the favorite at +350. Next is Dolphins coach Adam Gase at +750, followed by Bengals coach Marvin Lewis at +1000, Broncos coach Vance Joseph at +1000, Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter at +1200 (those were pre-Jameis Winston suspension odds), Washington coach Jay Gruden at +1200, Jets coach Todd Bowles at +1600, Texans coach Bill O’Brien at +2000, Cowboys coach Jason Garrett at +2500, Ravens coach John Harbaugh at +2800, Raiders coach Jon Gruden at +2800, and Seahawks coach Pete Carroll at +2800.

And this is where we’ll likely carve out a niche of sorts in this new world of sports wagering. On a game-by-game basis, when the bounce of the ball, the gust of wind, a bad decision at the worst possible time, or a flaw in game-planning can change things dramatically, it’s too hard to know what will happen with any degree of certainty. When it comes to big-picture, full-season propositions, however, that’s a different story.

On those bets, the feel that comes from following the NFL every waking moment of every day will be very beneficial. And as it relates to this specific proposition, here are the bets to avoid, and the bets to consider.

Don’t waste your money betting on O’Brien, Harbaugh, Jon Gruden, or Pete Carroll being the first to be fired. O’Brien has a new contract, Harbaugh most likely will be permitted to finish the season, barring a complete and total disaster (which isn’t likely), Jon Gruden is just starting a 10-year contract that would have a hefty buyout, and Carroll’s Seahawks likely will be better than most expect.

The smart money would be placed on Vance Joseph or Jay Gruden. Joseph avoided (perhaps narrowly) a termination after only one year on the job, with a team that seemed to be easily broken within the confines of a given game. (Remember when G.M. John Elway called the team soft?) If things don’t turn around quickly in 2018,  Elway may feel compelled to shake things up. And he may decide that he made the wrong decision after 2017.

In Washington, there’s plenty of pressure on the entire organization, and plenty of indications that the team will be battling at best for the basement. The Eagles will continue to be very good (most likely), the Cowboys should be better, and the Giants can’t be much worse (and probably will be much better). If Washington falls behind its three arch rivals, owner Daniel Snyder could decide that the time has come to move on.

Gase is a surprise at +750, and that’s another bet to avoid. He took the team to the playoffs in 2016, and he navigated a season of endless turmoil in 2017. The many doubters will serve only to strengthen the resolve of Gase and his team, which likely will be more of a team than it was given the departures of possibly-not-team-first players like Jarvis Landry, Ndamukong Suh, and Mike Pouncey.

Here’s one more to avoid: Bengals coach Marvin Lewis, for a couple of reasons. First, they won’t be as bad as many expect. Second, owner Mike Brown doesn’t like to pay people to not work. So if a firing comes, it likely won’t happen during the season — barring the kind of meltdown that just isn’t likely given the talent on the roster.

And here’s one to watch, given the long odds (and potentially great payoff): Cowboys coach Jason Garrett. Although owner Jerry Jones prefers a coach who won’t try to steal the spotlight, Garrett is running out of chances to prove Jones right for being so patient with the offensive coordinator who succeeded Wade Phillips during the 2010 season, after Jones made it clear that he wouldn’t be firing Wade Phillips during the 2010 season.

If the Cowboys stumble out of the gates, if they are outcoached a time or two (e.g., six sacks registered by one player with no in-game adjustments), and if Jerry catches a wild hair as a Week Eight bye approaches (the first seven weeks of the schedule will be no picnic), Garrett could be the first one to go. And at $2500 for every $100 wagered, that would be a nice way to turn Garrett’s negative into something positive.

All that said, no one ever knows what’s going to happen. But it’s a heck of a lot easier to predict moves like these over what will happen on any given Sunday, Monday, or Thursday.

62 responses to “Which coach will be fired first?

  1. Why is Jon Gruden on this list? This goes to show you how unintelligent some in Las Vegas truly are. 0% chance Mark Davis fires his white wale in the next 3 years, let alone THIS year. Come on..

  2. Hugh Is the favorite. The Bungles would never fire Lewis. My darkhorse is Koetter. With the Winston fiasco he is truly in danger.

  3. Guys like Harbaugh, Gruden, and Carroll are on the list and Mike McCarthy isn’t? Even Packer fans were calling for his head last year. If Rodgers misses significant time again this year, McCarthy isn’t going to be able to survive again.

  4. The bet is for the FIRST coach fired. It won’t be McCarthy, if it happens it will be at the end of the season, same with Carrol. Someone like Jay Gruden has a much higher chance of being fired during the season

  5. Rob Brzezinski is a Magician says:
    June 25, 2018 at 12:09 pm
    Guys like Harbaugh, Gruden, and Carroll are on the list and Mike McCarthy isn’t?
    —————————————–
    Hilarious – another viking fan that has to comment on the Packers. Coach McCarthy has been at the helm for 12 years. Won the North 6 of those years. Including 1 year when Rodgers was out with a broken collar bone. Guy took the Pack to the playoffs 9 out of 12 years. Zimmer is more on the hot seat by a long shot – especially now that he is “make or break” with the biggest risk free agent QB. Mike McCarthy isnt going anywhere. And there arent any Packer fans that want to see him leave. 1. He would be picked up by someone else in a heart beat. And 2 – There isnt anyone else out there as a better option .

  6. I am pulling for the Browns to have a great season and return to greatness.

    But, I think Huge Jackson is not qualified and is terrible.

    His debacle of trading away two 1st rd picks of the Raiders is just one proof of point.

    Fired.

  7. Only way Gase gets fired is if the team totally doesn’t respond and goes 2 and 14.
    I don’t see that taking place. Is there a bet I could place where if he does t get fired I could win big? If so I will take those odds all day.

  8. If he Phins start 1-4 Gase will be gone. He got rid of the trouble makers and made it clear he was changing the culture with his FA signings. If they flop he will officially be off Peyton’s coattails.

  9. When he isn’t busy dispensing free contract advice, he’s bashing the Redskins. Better than hearing about Trump, Krap, kneelers, owner collusion, etc I suppose.

  10. I think it’s Jay Gruden. Vance Joseph might get canned, but I feel like Elway probably gives him a whole season.

  11. And there arent any Packer fans that want to see him leave. 1. He would be picked up by someone else in a heart beat. And 2 – There isnt anyone else out there as a better option
    ======

    I want McCarthy gone, and have since that epic disaster in the NFCC Game.

    I pray, literally, on my hands and knees every night, that he goes to the Vikings or Bears.

    There isn’t a better option?.. that’s the worst line of reasoning ever.. he should be fired, he can’t do the job…. but lets keep him anyway? Sure, give me the Yugo, even though I know it will break down halfway through the trip..

  12. Carroll won’t get fired, he’ll just leave. Just like every other stop in his career.
    ======

    Seattle is Carrolls last stop.

    Belichick is the only coach with more power within his respective organization.

    He’s gonna leave? For what, exactly?

  13. aarons444 says:

    There isn’t a better option?.. that’s the worst line of reasoning ever.
    ————————————————
    There isnt a better option because McCarthy is 2nd only to Bill Belichick amongst active coaches. And he ranks 16th all time in the whole NFL history in amount of wins. 16th. SIXTEENTH. EVER. Keep trying. Laughable if anyone would want someone else. On that note – who would be a better option than McCarthy? Who? Nobody. You cant replace greatness.

  14. hagemeisterpark920 says:
    June 25, 2018 at 12:21 pm
    Rob Brzezinski is a Magician says:
    June 25, 2018 at 12:09 pm
    Guys like Harbaugh, Gruden, and Carroll are on the list and Mike McCarthy isn’t?
    —————————————–
    Hilarious – another viking fan that has to comment on the Packers. Coach McCarthy has been at the helm for 12 years. Won the North 6 of those years. Including 1 year when Rodgers was out with a broken collar bone. Guy took the Pack to the playoffs 9 out of 12 years. Zimmer is more on the hot seat by a long shot – especially now that he is “make or break” with the biggest risk free agent QB. Mike McCarthy isnt going anywhere. And there arent any Packer fans that want to see him leave. 1. He would be picked up by someone else in a heart beat. And 2 – There isnt anyone else out there as a better option .

    ……………………………………………………………………………..

    This guy along with a few other purple regulars live on PFT waiting for any post with the keyword “Green Bay”, “Packers”, “Rodgers”, etc. to appear and then they pounce. In their minds, the Minnesota team is superior when it comes to management, coaching, players, the stadium, concessions, and on and on and on. The Minnesota organization has even figured out a way to keep the trophy case uncluttered-another way in which they are superior to Green Bay.

  15. Would Gase really be on the hotseat? That seems absurd.

    The only reason Lewis hasn’t been fired is because the Bengals are too cheap to pay someone not to coach.

    My money would be on Hue.

  16. hagemeisterpark920 says:
    June 25, 2018 at 12:21 pm

    Rob Brzezinski is a Magician says:
    June 25, 2018 at 12:09 pm
    Guys like Harbaugh, Gruden, and Carroll are on the list and Mike McCarthy isn’t?
    —————————————–
    Hilarious – another viking fan that has to comment on the Packers. Coach McCarthy has been at the helm for 12 years. Won the North 6 of those years. Including 1 year when Rodgers was out with a broken collar bone. Guy took the Pack to the playoffs 9 out of 12 years. Zimmer is more on the hot seat by a long shot – especially now that he is “make or break” with the biggest risk free agent QB. Mike McCarthy isnt going anywhere. And there arent any Packer fans that want to see him leave. 1. He would be picked up by someone else in a heart beat. And 2 – There isnt anyone else out there as a better option .
    __________

    Go to any PFT story about McCarthy and you’ll see plenty of Packer fans complaining about him. I went to one and found these examples from noted Packer fans:

    nyneal says:
    June 18, 2018 at 9:59 am

    Mike McCarthy is the most over-rated head coach in the NFL. If he hadn’t had Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers as his QB’s — he’d be coaching a high school team somewhere.
    I’ve been a Packers fan since 1960 and it amazes me how everyone else around him takes the heat and even loses their job, but he continues to keep his job.
    Every time I hear the clueless media types call him an offensive genius and a QB guru, I cringe. Brett Hundley showed how great of a QB guru McCarthy really is — and then McCarthy even said that Hundley was not as prepared as he should have been in his last press conference of the year. Well — duh!!! Whose fault is that, huh Coach?
    If Dom Capers wasn’t a classy guy, he’d have told everyone what the problem was with his defenses. They started and ended with Ted Thompson not getting him enough quality players and Mike McCarthy adding to his problems by coaching conservatively too many times and forcing Capers’ outgunned defenses to take all the heat. I’m not defending Capers, because he was part of the problem too, but McCarthy made him the scapegoat, for sure.
    For two of the greatest QB’s who ever played in the NFL to have just one Super Bowl win each in GB is McCarthy’s true legacy.

    aarons444 says:
    June 18, 2018 at 10:38 am

    They had enough talent 2007-2011. McCarthy was the problem.

    Look at the Playoff losses. He was embarrassed in every one of them.

    aarons444 says:
    June 18, 2018 at 11:38 am

    McCarthy is 5-12-1 (.277) in games Rodgers has missed due to injury since 2008.

    I believe he has lost every game Rodgers left due to injury as well.

    They’re not a 6 win team without Rodgers at this point.

    stellarperformance says:
    June 18, 2018 at 3:00 pm

    Hundley.

    “Not Ready” is the understatement of the year.

    It should’ve cost Mccarthy his job. You can bet he’s under pressure to win, and win big.

  17. Carroll will never get fired. He turned seattle from a garbage team to a powerhouse just like that. You may hate the man but its true. I as a steeler fan am shocked tomlin isnt on this list. The teams underachieving and out of control. The dolphins are a huge wildcard. Teams had alot of turnover. Jay gruden i think is a pretty ok coach with a bad roster but bruce allen is a egomaniac. I think if the browns are 0-4 hue gets canned. Same with vance. They have a winner at QB now and he also let wade phillips go for his guy. Also think McCarthy should be on the list.

  18. hagemeisterpark920 says:

    June 25, 2018 at 12:52 pm

    aarons444 says:

    There isn’t a better option?.. that’s the worst line of reasoning ever.
    ————————————————
    There isnt a better option because McCarthy is 2nd only to Bill Belichick amongst active coaches. And he ranks 16th all time in the whole NFL history in amount of wins. 16th. SIXTEENTH. EVER. Keep trying. Laughable if anyone would want someone else. On that note – who would be a better option than McCarthy? Who? Nobody. You cant replace greatness.
    ______________________________________________________________
    Jeff Fisher and John Fox have more wins than McCarthy, would you consider them an upgrade?

  19. who would be a better option than McCarthy? Who?
    ======

    Anyone.

    Literally, anyone else.

    McCarthy is a choker. Its been proven beyond any reasonable doubt.

    Regular seasons wins? Big whoop. Marty Schottenheimer got plenty of those too.

  20. I think if Harbaugh misses the playoffs again he would be gone even before Hue.

    If Hue wins 8 games and the team looks on the rise I could see Dorsey keeping him. I do think Dorsey has the coach he wants in mind and if that coach becomes available and is interested it would be bye bye Hue even at 8 wins.

    If Harbaugh misses the playoffs he is gone. Stop getting me thinking about betting big money Florio. My wife may have spies here😉

  21. Top of the list (hottest seat):

    Hue Jackson {Browns} they have barely even won under his time…
    Dirk Koetter (Buccaneers) irrelevant in most games… all 3 phases floundering..
    Todd Bowles (Jets) Haven’t even finished better than the Bills or Dolphins when they were struggling…

  22. If you watched the Redskins draft you wouldnt put Jay Gruden on the list!Last season injuries tore through that defensive line and the Result was a last place rushing defense.They wont be last against the run this year and you can bank on that!

    This is why I tell everybody that last year is just what it is!!! Last year in other words what happened last year wont happen this year! And by the way that RB the Redskins drafted,Derrius Guice! that guy is going to be a beast! that is all and enjoy your day!!!

  23. mantastic54 says:

    Jeff Fisher and John Fox have more wins than McCarthy, would you consider them an upgrade?
    ——————————-
    I would not. Jeff Fischer and John Fox each have 64 more games coached than McCarthy so that isn’t even a logical comparison. Give McCarthy 4 more years to match their career longevity and he will have 50 more wins under his belt.

  24. The Wade Phillips comp isn’t a strong justification for considering an early firing for Jason Garrett. Phillips was in his third real stink as a team’s dedicated Head Coach, and was becoming known as a better DC than a HC. Garrett was Jones’s chosen “once and future HC”, meaning that he has much more favor with Jones than Phillips ever did. Chance to be fired after 2018? Sure. During the season? Very, very slim. And remember, Dallas won 9 games in a season in which a ton went wrong – how exactly is the team supposed to be bad enough, so much worse than in 2017, to get Garrett fired? Bet on him being fired if you wish, but you would be throwing your money away.

  25. It’s really sick to speculate this early, when the season hasn’t even started, which person will be fired.

    Really?

  26. When the Vikings win the NFC North once again. McCarthy will be gone. Praying they keep him as he can’t win without Favre or Rodgers saving his bad coaching, but now with a Gutey (a minnesotan) in charge he’ll be gone. If GB is stupid enough to keep him, the NFC North will be owned for the Vikings for the next 5 years minimum….

  27. The only reason Lewis hasn’t been fired is because the Bengals are too cheap to pay someone not to coach.

    ——————————————
    Should have fired him while Mike Zimmer, Jay Gruden and Hue Jackson were on the coaching staff.

  28. Viking fans sure want Mike McCarthy out according to these comments. The only thing that says, is the guy steamrolled your team so often in his tenure that you cant wait for him to leave. Otherwise, if you really think he stunk as much as you are saying, why would you want him to be out? Newsflash – he isnt going anywhere and the beat down of the queens will continue.

  29. “Why is Jon Gruden on this list? This goes to show you how unintelligent some in Las Vegas truly are.”

    ***

    Quite the opposite, my friend. It’s pretty smart for the house to make bets that have almost no chance of losing.

  30. Doug Pederson is gone if the Eagles don’t repeat.

    No? Ok, how about Belichick being gone if the Patriots don’t win the super bowl?

    Not buying that either? Well, all thats left is Hue Jackson. Except with a new GM who actually brought in a QB I can see the Browns winning at least 5 games. So Hue probably gets another year.

    Who does that leave?
    ….
    I guess I’ll select one of Marvin Lewis, Jason Garret, Vance Joseph, or Mike McCarthy. I’ll flip a coin …

    Marvin Lewis it is.

  31. I’m in favor of McCarthy getting fired, he has consistently failed to make in-game adjustments and win the close games. No doubt he has plenty of talent and that talent often overcomes much of his coaching shortfalls.

    That being said, he has two very accomplished and successful coordinators on both sides of the ball so he actually stands a chance of going deep into the playoffs. Again, very little can be attributed to McCarthy other than he hired them but I don’t get why Mark Murphy has done the right thing and that is to fire McCarthy.

  32. Alan Light: “But now with Gutey(a minnesotan) he will be gone”

    =================

    Nice try!

    Brian Gutekunst ‘Gute’ was born in North Carolina and went to school at Wisconsin-LaCrosse. He is 44 years old and has worked for the Packers since 1998.

    More Vikings fans trying to associate themselves with the Packers. Status Quo.

  33. Viking fans sure want Mike McCarthy out according to these comments.
    =====

    There isn’t a single NFC team that wants McCarthy gone.

  34. hagemeisterpark920 says:
    June 25, 2018 at 2:07 pm

    Give McCarthy 4 more years to match their career longevity and he will have 50 more wins under his belt.
    ________

    Considering the best 4-year stretch of McCarthy’s career is 47 wins and the last four years have produced 39 wins with a steady downward trend, I’d say you’re being a bit overly optimistic about the immediate future.

  35. Rob Brzezinski is a Magician says:

    Considering the best 4-year stretch of McCarthy’s career is 47 wins and the last four years have produced 39 wins with a steady downward trend, I’d say you’re being a bit overly optimistic about the immediate future.
    ——————————————
    You got me Magic Mike – McCarthy is an awful coach. Just look at these pathetic numbers. What was I thinking??

    2007 – 1st place NFC North
    2009 – 2nd place NFC North
    2010 – 2nd place NFC North – SuperBowl Champs
    2011 – 1st place NFC North
    2012 – 1st place NFC North
    2013 – 1st place NFC North
    2014 – 1st place NFC North
    2015 – 2nd place NFC North
    2016 – 1st place NFC North

  36. You left out a couple years there, Champ.

    I’m not arguing that McCarthy’s teams haven’t done well when Rodgers has played. I’m just saying that they’re 5-12-1 when he’s injured and all of those wins were against bad teams and were extremely close. If you can show me that the team isn’t the picture of ineptitude without Rodgers, then I’ll agree that he’s a great coach. There’s nothing you can show me that would convince me they have a chance of winning 50 games in the next four seasons.

  37. Look at the Marvin Lewis coaching tree of ineptitude headlining this list. Lewis, Jay Gruden, Vance Joseph, and Hue. All Bengals coaches under Might Marv. Losing breeds losing. Marvin Lewis is a loser.

  38. Top three on the list:
    Adam Gase- betting on a QB in Tannehill who will likely lead to the demise of Gase. Team seems very soft. Dolphins fans still are MAD that Stephen Ross didn’t listen to Parcells and hire Mike Zimmer a few years ago. Dolphins should have moved up in draft to get a QB and start over, instead they bring back Tannehill to see if they can be a middling .500 type team.

    Dirk Koetter- In a brutal division, a very tough schedule, and last year it seemed he was losing the locker room at end of season… Don’t expect him to survive past this season..

    Jason Garrett- Cowboys offensive passing game looks very questionable, expect teams to load up to slow down Elliott. Also, defense relies to heavily on an injury prone player in Sean Lee. Love Lee but you know he is going to suffer some injuries and miss at minimum a few games. Offensive Line also seems very thin.

  39. I feel so bad for Bengal fans. Until recently they’ve had the talent to be special for several years, only to be held back my horrific coaching when the games truly counted.

    Lewis is what, 0-7 in the wild card round? And has he ever won a primetime game?? Blows my mind bengals ownership keeps the guy around… If I’m a bengals fan I’m staying away from that stadium until the owner makes a change. Stop giving the guy money when he keeps trotting out Marvin freaking Lewis

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