Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady have best MVP odds

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Aaron Rodgers has two NFL MVP awards. Tom Brady has three.

Not surprisingly, the two are betting favorites for the official Associated Press MVP award for 2018, per Bovada. Rodgers has 13-2 odds, while Brady, who repeated as the top-ranked player in the NFL Network’s Top 100, currently is at 7-1.

The top 17 players — those with 30-1 or lower odds — are quarterbacks. Quarterbacks have won 10 of the past 11 MVP awards, with running back Adrian Peterson winning it in 2012.

A quarterback or running back has won the award every year since 1986 when voters honored Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor.

2018 NFL regular-season MVP odds to win:

Rodgers 13/2

Brady 7/1

Carson Wentz 19/2

Drew Brees 15/1

Russell Wilson 15/1

Jimmy Garoppolo 20/1

Cam Newton 20/1

Matt Ryan 20/1

Deshaun Watson 20/1

Kirk Cousins 22/1

Jared Goff 22/1

Philip Rivers 22/1

Ben Roethlisberger 25/1

Derek Carr 28/1

Andrew Luck 30/1

Dak Prescott 30/1

Matthew Stafford 30/1

Le’Veon Bell 40/1

Todd Gurley 40/1

David Johnson 40/1

Marcus Mariota 40/1

Antonio Brown 50/1

Ezekiel Elliott 50/1

Case Keenum 50/1

Eli Manning 50/1

Jameis Winston 50/1

Patrick Mahomes 55/1

Saquon Barkley 60/1

Leonard Fournette 60/1

Kareem Hunt 60/1

LeSean McCoy 60/1

Alex Smith 60/1

Blake Bortles 66/1

Alvin Kamara 66/1

Julio Jones 70/1

Joe Flacco 75/1

Mitchell Trubisky 90/1

Andy Dalton 100/1

Devonta Freeman 100/1

AJ Green 100/1

Rob Gronkowski 100/1

DeAndre Hopkins 100/1

J.J. Watt 100/1

Sam Bradford 125/1

Nick Foles 125/1

Tyrod Taylor 125/1

99 responses to “Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady have best MVP odds

  1. Winston at 50 -1 is hysterical. Also funny that several of the players rated in the top 10 are higher odds than Rodgers to win the MVP

  2. Not PFT’s Rodgers – he won’t go a whole season at pre-injury levels on his clavicle, and if he can, rest of GB/coaches haven’t taken a step up, and Rodgers can’t carry them to an SB like Brady.

  3. Rodgers was in the mix for MVP talk when he went down last year. So anyone knocking that odds number is just running gums. And the Pack was 5-1. Its going to pick up right where it left off. GO PACK GO.

  4. Rodgers can’t carry them to an SB like Brady.
    =====

    Right, let me know when Brady overcomes a terrible defense and an incompetent head coach. It will be the first time he’s had to.

  5. IrishGary you are aware that Aaron Rodgers 13/2 are the best odds of those listed right?

    Don’t be a epic failure at trolling if you are going to attempt it👍

  6. Nevermind Gary😃

    I misread your post. You were referring to the NFL Networks Top 100 and Top 10.

    I thought at first you were trying to troll Aaron. I’m so used to trolls trolling The Pack…Again I am man enough to apologize when I make a mistake🤙

  7. NE and GB are very similar when Brady and Rodgers are healthy. When they aren’t, NE is still a top team whereas GB is in the bottom handful of teams. McCarthy & the coaches he likes have kept this team from being as dominant as NE over the years. There’s no question who is the GOAT. If you prefer Brady, that’s great. We are very happy with Rodgers.

  8. freefromwhatyouare says:

    June 26, 2018 at 3:11 pm

    Nevermind Gary😃

    I misread your post. You were referring to the NFL Networks Top 100 and Top 10.

    I thought at first you were trying to troll Aaron. I’m so used to trolls trolling The Pack…Again I am man enough to apologize when I make a mistake🤙
    ==================================================================
    Every post you make is a mistake.

  9. NE and GB are very similar when Brady and Rodgers are healthy. When they aren’t, NE is still a top team whereas GB is in the bottom handful of teams. McCarthy & the coaches he likes have kept this team from being as dominant as NE over the years. There’s no question who is the GOAT. If you prefer Brady, that’s great. We are very happy with Rodgers.
    ====

    ^ Well said!

  10. aarons444 says:
    June 26, 2018 at 2:57 pm
    Rodgers can’t carry them to an SB like Brady.
    =====

    Right, let me know when Brady overcomes a terrible defense and an incompetent head coach. It will be the first time he’s had t

    ——-

    Little Aaron wants so much money that the team won’t be able to afford a decent defense

  11. How Brees doesn’t have one, I will never know. He single handedly kept saints with winning seasons as the defense was historically bad.
    ___________________

    Don’t get me wrong, I like Brees, but the Saint’s have had 6 winning seasons out of the 12 he’s been there, 1 .500 season and 5 below .500.

    W/L record is not a QB stat.

  12. Brady has great odds….if Rodgers and Wentz get hurt again.
    ______________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Tell that to their peers, who just voted Brady #1, Wentz #3, and Rodgers #10 for the upcoming season. Let me guess, they are delusional homers as well?

    Rodgers might very well win the MVP this year. If so, good for him. Call me in 6 years when he does it at the age of 40.

  13. But this can’t be. Nhpats and the rest of the patriot trolls are telling us that Luck is finished. I guess Vegas knows more than you clowns do. Won’t you look at that and take a screenshot

  14. aarons444 says:
    June 26, 2018 at 2:57 pm

    Rodgers can’t carry them to an SB like Brady.
    =====

    Right, let me know when Brady overcomes a terrible defense and an incompetent head coach. It will be the first time he’s had to.
    =====================================================

    Uhh- how about last year, and how about 2011, and Uhh 2006, and Bill’s coaching was ATROCIOUS in 2015, directly costing home field in Championship game, and also got out coached by Kubiak in that game.

    Love Bill, but no Brady no winee!

  15. -djvh2, you’re right, there is no question who is the goat. GB fans can’t seem to figure it out like the rest of the world.

  16. I will not dignify the post from Rob on his Bill T screen name.

    Poor guy is mad😃 I do hope things get better for him.

    Anyone else feel like Derek Carr should have better odds to win the MVP than Kirk Cousins? Matthew Stafford as well.

  17. Little Aaron wants so much money that the team won’t be able to afford a decent defense
    =====

    Brady’s cap number is 1.4 mil and change higher than Rodgers this year.

    And Brady may well beat Rodgers to the finish line on a new deal.

  18. Uhh- how about last year, and how about 2011, and Uhh 2006, and Bill’s coaching was ATROCIOUS in 2015, directly costing home field in Championship game, and also got out coached by Kubiak in that game.
    =====

    14 of 16 seasons Brady has played with a top 10 defense. 7 seasons in the top 5. 4 seasons #1 or #2.

    Yeah. Bill is horrible……..

    Better call the whambulance.

  19. aarons444 says:
    June 26, 2018 at 5:19 pm
    Uhh- how about last year, and how about 2011, and Uhh 2006, and Bill’s coaching was ATROCIOUS in 2015, directly costing home field in Championship game, and also got out coached by Kubiak in that game.
    =====

    14 of 16 seasons Brady has played with a top 10 defense. 7 seasons in the top 5. 4 seasons #1 or #2.

    Yeah. Bill is horrible……..

    Better call the whambulance.
    ——
    No offense but that’s a little disingenuous to say he always benefited from a top 10 defense. That’s because if you also look at yards it paints a very different picture than you’re trying to make. Yes, I know it’s all about points. But there are exceptions and this is one of them. If a defense gave up a ton of yards that means your GOAT QB is on the sidelines and isn’t getting to score points himself. Is that really any different than a defense giving up points anyway?

    So let’s look at the true measure of the defense that Brady “benefited” from. Points AND yards.

    Seasons where Brady benefited from a top 5 defense in points and yards: 1*.
    I mark that with a * because that was 2007, as the defense unquestionably benefited from a historic offense. Funny how the logic is actually reverse of what people think it is huh? 🙂

    Seasons where Brady was on a Patriots team that was BOTTOM 10 defense in yards: 8. Won 1 Super Bowl and 2 AFC Championships with such defenses. So I’d say much credit to that belongs to Brady and the offense.

    Nothing wrong with saying Brady and Belichick together made each other’s success what it is. GOAT and GOAT. 🙂

  20. NE and GB are very similar when Brady and Rodgers are healthy. When they aren’t, NE is still a top team
    ————-
    Dunno if I’d go that far. Take Brady off this team and the Patriots are just another football team, one of many in the AFC.

  21. No offense but that’s a little disingenuous to say he always benefited from a top 10 defense…
    =====

    You lost me there…..

    To win, you have to score more points than the other team. There isn’t a more important stat.

    So you’ll never convince me having a top scoring defense ISN’T an advantage.

    .. You want to talk yards, we’ll also talk turnovers, in which case, 14 of 16 years the Pats have been top 10. Top 3 7 times.

    Bottom line; Bill’s D gets stops when they need them. Talk smoke, mirrors and circumstance all you want. They’re not the D they were from 2001-2004. They’ve clearly shifted to being an offensive team. But they’ve been consistently better than any other defensive unit in football during this run.

    Rodgers has only played with a top 10 D twice. Winning the Super Bowl the only year in the top 5. 50%.. I’ll take those odds all day long, and every Sunday.

  22. Congratulations to the Packers for another offseason victory. Vegas odds and comments from TV announcers trying to ingratiate themselves to the local fans are more important to their fans than the actual games.

  23. Rodgers was voted #10 while only playing 5 games? That’s a huge affirmation as to th man’s talent in my book.

    Brady is more than likely the best QB all-around … solely because he wins. Where I come from, that’s why the games are played.

    Neither has any reason to hang their head. On the flip side, nobody posting here has any right to beat their own chest over someone else’s accomplishments. Hey kids, sit back…enjoy the show and shut up. You have no vested interest. Lighten up, kids.

  24. freefromwhatyouare says:
    June 26, 2018 at 3:11 pm
    Nevermind Gary😃

    I misread your post. You were referring to the NFL Networks Top 100 and Top 10.

    I thought at first you were trying to troll Aaron. I’m so used to trolls trolling The Pack…Again I am man enough to apologize when I make a mistake

    //////////////////////

    Get a room boys, keep it off PFT

  25. -djvh2, you’re right, there is no question who is the goat. GB fans can’t seem to figure it out like the rest of the world.

    Actually GB fans don’t set the odds. That would be the experts in Vegas who continually remind the sports betting world via their insane profits who is actually knowledgeable, fair weather fans or experts.

  26. aarons444 says:
    June 26, 2018 at 2:57 pm
    Rodgers can’t carry them to an SB like Brady.
    =====

    Right, let me know when Brady overcomes a terrible defense and an incompetent head coach. It will be the first time he’s had to.

    ======

    Brady has most certainly overcame bad defenses to have deep post season runs, and there’s been a lot worse coaches in the NFL than Green a bay has had over last dozen years or so. Not disputable.

  27. aarons444 says:
    June 26, 2018 at 2:57 pm
    Rodgers can’t carry them to an SB like Brady.
    =====

    Right, let me know when Brady overcomes a terrible defense and an incompetent head coach. It will be the first time he’s had to.

    =====

    Laughable. Brady led Pats would be 8-0 if defense could have held a 4th qtr Super Bowl lead.

  28. aarons444 says:
    June 26, 2018 at 5:19 pm
    Uhh- how about last year, and how about 2011, and Uhh 2006, and Bill’s coaching was ATROCIOUS in 2015, directly costing home field in Championship game, and also got out coached by Kubiak in that game.
    =====

    14 of 16 seasons Brady has played with a top 10 defense. 7 seasons in the top 5. 4 seasons #1 or #2.

    Yeah. Bill is horrible……..

    Better call the whambulance.
    =======

    Better call the fact-ulance, not remotely true. …..

  29. So the two best QBs have the best odds for MVP. In other news water is wet, Donald Trump is President and as of yet I’ve not successfully grown a pizza plant.

  30. Aaron Rodgers is a great player but he shouldn’t be in the top 100 for last season. And all rankings are writers and Networks way of giving you something that is really nothing. It is a waste of your time. I do not know why some fans watch this stuff even in the off season and get all bent out of shape over it.

  31. 13

    You do realize that betting odds are a method to balance out the bets and have very little to do with probability.

    Vegas knows that Packer fans are prone to bet like drunken sailors, so they typically make the Packers and or their players the “better” odds on the off chance they might actually win.

  32. aarons444 says:
    June 26, 2018 at 6:31 pm

    No offense but that’s a little disingenuous to say he always benefited from a top 10 defense…
    =====

    You lost me there…..

    To win, you have to score more points than the other team. There isn’t a more important stat.

    So you’ll never convince me having a top scoring defense ISN’T an advantage.

    .. You want to talk yards, we’ll also talk turnovers, in which case, 14 of 16 years the Pats have been top 10. Top 3 7 times.

    Bottom line; Bill’s D gets stops when they need them. Talk smoke, mirrors and circumstance all you want. They’re not the D they were from 2001-2004. They’ve clearly shifted to being an offensive team. But they’ve been consistently better than any other defensive unit in football during this run.

    Rodgers has only played with a top 10 D twice. Winning the Super Bowl the only year in the top 5. 50%.. I’ll take those odds all day long, and every Sunday.
    —————————————————
    Gotta disagree with you there my man. 🙂

    You can’t convince me that a team that is ranked high in scoring but bottom 3 in yards (as the Pats were in 2017) is a good defense. Especially not this team. You can’t tell me that a Patriots defense that gave up no points on a drive but lets another offense chew up clock, giving up 3rd down conversion again and again, keeping Tom Brady on the sidelines…did a good job. They didn’t.

    Points are everything when it comes to who wins or loses. But they are not everything when it comes to evaluating how good a defense is. It’s points, yards, forced turnovers AND sacks. Together. The Patriots haven’t had anything resembling a top defense in several years. It’s been Brady that’s been the difference between this team being a perennial contender and just another football team.

    I think it’s interesting that Patriots critics talk about how they supposedly play an easy schedule and division…and yet those same critics will criticize Brady by saying he benefits from a top defense every year… a defense who just happens to benefit from that very same supposedly easy schedule. They just can’t win I guess. 🙂

  33. 14 of 16 seasons Brady has played with a top 10 defense. 7 seasons in the top 5. 4 seasons #1 or #2.
    =======
    Better call the fact-ulance, not remotely true
    ——

    Yep, you’re right… its only 13 of 16..

  34. Laughable. Brady led Pats would be 8-0 if defense could have held a 4th qtr Super Bowl lead.
    ======

    Laughable indeed that he lost to those pathetically average Giants teams.

    17th in 2007
    25th in 2011.. possibly the worst team in Super Bowl history.

    He should have lit them up like a pinball machine.

  35. If Brady sat in the Super Bowl…Eagles win that game by 40. No question about it. Brady’s game was the only reason why that was a 1 score game at all. So don’t come @ me with dreck about the Patriots having a good defense and that’s the only reason why Brady wins a lot. 🙂 America saw for themselves how “good” the defense was last February.

    It’s also fun to look at Joe Montana, a guy who is right up there among the greats…but unlike Brady, he unquestionably benefited from a great defense every year.

    Never qualified for a Super Bowl with less than a top 8 scoring defense.
    1981 – won SB – #2 in points allowed, #2 in yards allowed
    1984 – won SB – #1 in points allowed, #10 in yards allowed
    1988 – won SB – #8 in points allowed, #3 in yards allowed
    1989 – won SB – #3 in points allowed, #4 in yards allowed

    In fact – not counting the strike season Montana never had a season as a 49er with a defense ranked outside of the top 10 in scoring. Huh. 🙂

  36. and there’s been a lot worse coaches in the NFL than Green a bay has had over last dozen years or so
    ======

    Name another coach in NFL history that has managed to lose games the way McCarthy has?

    5 losses on the last play of the game.

    Horrific defensive displays, giving up 500+ yards in teh post season twice. 444 to Kaepernick by himself. A guy who can’t find work!

    Name another coach who blew a double digit lead with under 4:00 to go.

    .. he nearly gave away the Title he won! 21-3 lead just before halftime. Rodgers had to bail him out.

    McCarthy is terrible.

  37. aarons444 says:
    June 27, 2018 at 9:35 am

    and there’s been a lot worse coaches in the NFL than Green a bay has had over last dozen years or so
    ======

    Name another coach in NFL history that has managed to lose games the way McCarthy has?

    5 losses on the last play of the game.

    Horrific defensive displays, giving up 500+ yards in teh post season twice. 444 to Kaepernick by himself. A guy who can’t find work!

    Name another coach who blew a double digit lead with under 4:00 to go.

    .. he nearly gave away the Title he won! 21-3 lead just before halftime. Rodgers had to bail him out.

    McCarthy is terrible.
    ——————————————–
    Who do you think rebuilt Rodgers poor mechanics out of college? 🙂 There was a good reason why 20 (?) teams passed on him…

    Just sayin’

  38. aarons444 says:

    June 27, 2018 at 9:27 am

    14 of 16 seasons Brady has played with a top 10 defense. 7 seasons in the top 5. 4 seasons #1 or #2.
    =======
    Better call the fact-ulance, not remotely true
    ——

    Yep, you’re right… its only 13 of 16..

    =====================================

    Too bad….

    Pats defensive DVOA in Super Bowl appearance seasons
    2017 – 31st
    2016 – 16th
    2013 – 20th
    2011 – 30th
    2007 – 11th
    2004 – 7th
    2003 – 2nd
    2001 – 13th

  39. Who do you think rebuilt Rodgers poor mechanics out of college? 🙂
    ======

    Fair enough.

    If he’s good with QBs, why is Rodgers the only one that has had great success?

    Matt Flynn washed out immediately with two other clubs.

    He stood fully behind Brett Hundley last year when Rodgers went down, and he was a catastrophe.

  40. .. and can you answer any of the questions posed, BTW?

    Honestly. Name coach who has taken worse post-season losses.

    If you can, I’ll stop bashing the guy.

    (so consider that rhetorical.. 🙂)

  41. Too bad…
    Pats defensive DVOA in Super Bowl appearance seasons
    =====

    Just so I’m clear;

    A defense that doesn’t give up points and takes the ball away isn’t good?

    .. generally I like PFF, but I can see why many don’t with that line of “reasoning”

  42. Uh, I’d take a coach with a Super Bowl over a Ryan brother, Chip Kelly or Marvin Lewis ( 15yrs, 7 one and dones, ouch!) or many of the other coaches who have come in and out of the league in the last 12 years or so. Even a pretty good coach like Andy Reid has some brutal weak points (clock management) that has cost his teams many games.

  43. aarons444 says:

    June 27, 2018 at 10:38 am

    Too bad…
    Pats defensive DVOA in Super Bowl appearance seasons
    =====

    Just so I’m clear;

    A defense that doesn’t give up points and takes the ball away isn’t good?

    .. generally I like PFF, but I can see why many don’t with that line of “reasoning”

    ========================

    Why? It gives a much clearer picture for how a defense performed and is a much better indicator for how a defense will perform in the postseason when the opponents obviously get tougher. Saying the Pats had a “top 5” defense last year is crazy. They were 29th in yards allowed and their pass rush was non-existent. And the offense obviously ate a lot of clock time for them. If your facing the Browns you can get away with that, but not so much when your facing a playoff team with a decent offense. Nick Foles and Doug Pederson certainly didn’t seem to have any fear carving up that vaunted “top 5” Pats D.

  44. aarons444 says:
    June 26, 2018 at 2:57 pm
    Rodgers can’t carry them to an SB like Brady.
    =====
    Right, let me know when Brady overcomes a terrible defense and an incompetent head coach. It will be the first time he’s had to.

    ————-

    How do you explain what happened in 2011? They sure looked like they had a good defense and a good coach at 13-0.

  45. Uh, I’d take a coach with a Super Bowl over a Ryan brother, Chip Kelly or Marvin Lewis ( 15yrs, 7 one and dones, ouch!) or many of the other coaches who have come in and out of the league in the last 12 years or so. Even a pretty good coach like Andy Reid has some brutal weak points (clock management) that has cost his teams many games.
    ======

    I’d take Marvin Lewis over McCarthy. The defense wouldn’t have been the shambles its been since 2010.

    .. I’d give up body parts for Andy Reid. ‘course I’m a complete homer on that one, considering the success he had here with Favre in his MVP years.

  46. How do you explain what happened in 2011? They sure looked like they had a good defense and a good coach at 13-0.
    ======

    Same broken record that’s been playing ever since.

    McCarthy making his living off Rodgers greatness, completely inept to solve routine problems.

    2011 the defense was horrific. Worst in League history to that point in terms of yards allowed.

    .. Wasted the best year any QB has ever had.

  47. Why? It gives a much clearer picture for how a defense performed and is a much better indicator for how a defense will perform in the postseason when the opponents obviously get tougher. Saying the Pats had a “top 5” defense last year is crazy.
    =====

    The Packers are a bottom 10 defensive unit, and have been almost every year since 2010.

    They give up points and yards.

    At least Belichicks D makes stops and keeps teams out of the endzone. Want to call it luck because they give up yards? If it was luck why has it happened 13 of 16 of Bradys seasons?

    Rodgers doesn’t get that luxury. As I said earlier, the 1 year he had a top 5 scoring D, he won the SB.

    I know what I’d rather watch, as a fan. I’m relatively certain what the result would be as well.

  48. In one universe, the Patriots defense give up a long opening drive of 60 yards. 7 minutes. Lots of third down conversions. Then the other team misses a field goal. 0 points allowed. 0-0 score after 7 minutes.

    In a parallel universe, the Patriots defense gets a 3 and out on the opening series. Also 0 points allowed. But Brady and Pats take the punt and drive for a TD, all in the span of those same 7 minutes. 7-0 Pats after 7 minutes.

    Both defenses allowed 0 points. But as you can clearly see, not everything is as equal as it seems. 🙂

  49. Both defenses allowed 0 points. But as you can clearly see, not everything is as equal as it seems. 🙂
    =====

    I’ve been watching Dom Capers the last 9 years.

    Defense?

    Doormat.

  50. aarons444 says:

    June 27, 2018 at 11:37 am At least Belichicks D makes stops and keeps teams out of the endzone. Want to call it luck because they give up yards? If it was luck why has it happened 13 of 16 of Bradys seasons?

    ================================

    I didn’t say it was luck. Its not luck that they had some really good defenses (not Ravens good or early ’00’s Tampa good, but good) especially in the beginning of the Brady era. Its also true though, that they’ve had some really average to flat out bad defenses during that stretch. Your “13 of 16” stat is completely misleading and skates past deeper issues with those team defenses. You refused to answer my points especially about the 2017 Pats, the defense you hold in such high regard. They were awful.

    And since you enjoy points against stats so much, the 6 toughest regular season opponents the Pats faced last year (KC, NO, CAR, HOU w/ Watson, ATL, Pitt) averaged a sweet 26.5 points against/game. Which proves my point. DVOA is a better indicator. Pats defense was crappy last year and when the opponents got tougher, they were exposed. Its why they lost the Super Bowl to a back up QB. Fact.

  51. aarons444 says:

    June 27, 2018 at 11:26 am

    Uh, I’d take a coach with a Super Bowl over a Ryan brother, Chip Kelly or Marvin Lewis ( 15yrs, 7 one and dones, ouch!) or many of the other coaches who have come in and out of the league in the last 12 years or so. Even a pretty good coach like Andy Reid has some brutal weak points (clock management) that has cost his teams many games.
    ======

    I’d take Marvin Lewis over McCarthy. The defense wouldn’t have been the shambles its been since 2010.

    .. I’d give up body parts for Andy Reid. ‘course I’m a complete homer on that one, considering the success he had here with Favre in his MVP years.

    ======================

    Whereas if you were an Eagles or Chiefs fans, you’d be throwing body parts at the tv because Andy Reid has misused his timeouts….again. And Marvin Lewis is the epitome of just barely good enough to not get fired. Perpetually average. And he’s had some pretty good offensive talent go to waste with MUCH less success to show for it than McCarthy .

  52. DVOA is a better indicator. Pats defense was crappy last year and when the opponents got tougher, they were exposed. Its why they lost the Super Bowl to a back up QB. Fact.
    =====

    You certainly are entitled to that opinion.

  53. aarons444 says:

    June 27, 2018 at 12:53 pm

    DVOA is a better indicator. Pats defense was crappy last year and when the opponents got tougher, they were exposed. Its why they lost the Super Bowl to a back up QB. Fact.
    =====

    You certainly are entitled to that opinion.

    ========================

    Considering the recent Super Bowl was the first game in NFL history where a 500yd no INT QB wasn’t on the winning team, its a fact.

  54. Chill_Donahue says:
    June 27, 2018 at 1:05 pm
    aarons444 says:

    June 27, 2018 at 12:53 pm

    DVOA is a better indicator. Pats defense was crappy last year and when the opponents got tougher, they were exposed. Its why they lost the Super Bowl to a back up QB. Fact.
    =====

    You certainly are entitled to that opinion.

    ========================

    Considering the recent Super Bowl was the first game in NFL history where a 500yd no INT QB wasn’t on the winning team, its a fact.

    \\\\

    The pats defense last year definitely reminded me of a Capers unit that can’t get off the field.

    Brady put up big numbers and lost the game.

    Sounds even more like how the Packers have exited the playoffs the last few years.

    Your kind of proving aarons444’s point. When the defense can’t get stops, Brady lost just like Rodgers does. When your defense gave up big plays at the end of the game, Brady lost to the giants, twice. The first 3 super bowls Brady won he was a game manager.

  55. andrwken says:

    June 28, 2018 at 1:41 pm

    Chill_Donahue says:
    June 27, 2018 at 1:05 pm
    aarons444 says:

    June 27, 2018 at 12:53 pm

    DVOA is a better indicator. Pats defense was crappy last year and when the opponents got tougher, they were exposed. Its why they lost the Super Bowl to a back up QB. Fact.
    =====

    You certainly are entitled to that opinion.

    ========================

    Considering the recent Super Bowl was the first game in NFL history where a 500yd no INT QB wasn’t on the winning team, its a fact.

    \\\\

    The pats defense last year definitely reminded me of a Capers unit that can’t get off the field.

    Brady put up big numbers and lost the game.

    Sounds even more like how the Packers have exited the playoffs the last few years.

    Your kind of proving aarons444’s point. When the defense can’t get stops, Brady lost just like Rodgers does. When your defense gave up big plays at the end of the game, Brady lost to the giants, twice. The first 3 super bowls Brady won he was a game manager.

    ===================================================================

    The point I’m disputing is @aaron444’s over-reliance on points allowed as best indicator for how good a defense is. Pats were 5th best in NFL in points allowed, yet 29th in yards allowed and 31st in defense DVOA. The Pats kept bad teams out the end zone but good teams scored pretty frequently against them. They were a pretty abysmal defense, despite what aaron444 thinks.

    And Pats defense was really good in the early Brady years, but the certainly don’t win those Super Bowls with just an average QB or even Bledsoe. Brady’s stats weren’t anything special back then. But he, like lots of players on those early teams, came up big when it mattered.

  56. They were a pretty abysmal defense, despite what aaron444 thinks.
    =====

    I know all about bad defense, as a Packer fan.

    The Patriots haven’t been bad since 2001.

  57. And Pats defense was really good in the early Brady years, but the certainly don’t win those Super Bowls with just an average QB or even Bledsoe.
    ======

    Brady and Bledsoe’s numbers were pretty similar 2002-2004.

    I’d bet Belichick could have won A Ring with him. Definitely not a dynasty with him though.

  58. aarons444 says:

    June 28, 2018 at 4:21 pm

    They were a pretty abysmal defense, despite what aaron444 thinks.
    =====

    I know all about bad defense, as a Packer fan.

    The Patriots haven’t been bad since 2001.

    ===================

    Overall as a team, they haven’t been “bad” although 02 and 08 could have been a little better, but that’s greedy.

    As a defensive unit, I definitively proved that yes, the Pats have had some average to flat out bad defenses during the Brady era, and not just your empty “13 of 16” point. Indisputable.

  59. And Pats defense was really good in the early Brady years, but the certainly don’t win those Super Bowls with just an average QB or even Bledsoe. Brady’s stats weren’t anything special back then. But he, like lots of players on those early teams, came up big when it mattered.
    ——-
    2003 was the best defense in the Brady/BB era. Tremendous. Especially at forcing turnovers. 2004 was excellent too.No other Patriot defenders since then has come close to measuring up.

    And yet the 03 defense got lit up by Jake Delhomme in the Super Bowl – and bailed out by “game manager” Brady who finally had the reins taken off. Go figure 🙂

  60. Overall as a team, they haven’t been “bad” although 02 and 08 could have been a little better, but that’s greedy.
    ——-
    08 is self explanatory. They also weren’t bad in 09 but something was definitely off about that team.

  61. Your kind of proving aarons444’s point. When the defense can’t get stops, Brady lost just like Rodgers does. When your defense gave up big plays at the end of the game, Brady lost to the giants, twice. The first 3 super bowls Brady won he was a game manager.
    ——
    Brady demonstrated he can win when his defense doesn’t get stops. 4th quarter of the 03 Super Bowl against Jake Delhomme says hello. 🙂

  62. As a defensive unit, I definitively proved that yes, the Pats have had some average to flat out bad defenses during the Brady era, and not just your empty “13 of 16” point. Indisputable.
    ======

    In your mind, sure.

    I know better, having watched FAR too many terrible Packer defenses from 2006-present.

  63. Actually GB fans don’t set the odds. That would be the experts in Vegas who continually remind the sports betting world via their insane profits who is actually knowledgeable, fair weather fans or experts.
    ************************************

    You do realize that Vegas sets odds so that suckers, err customers, will jump on them and throw their hard earned cash at them, right? A better way of looking at it is this – would you take AR or the field (ie, the rest of the league) in an MVP bet? See, I’d be more confident in someone OTHER than AR winning the MVP this coming year than I would be of AR winning it, simply based on last year and his injury.

    On the other hand, I’d be more inclined to bet ON TB12 vs the field, again based on what happened last year – you know, where he actually won the MVP.

    Vegas simply knows that many GB fans will drop tons of money on the 13-2 odds of AR winning the MVP and it’s free money for them because he won’t win it.

  64. Brady has played in 100 games decided by 7 points or less. He’s 69-31 with am 89.4 QB rating.

    Rodgers has played in 61 games decided by 7 points or less. His record; 32-29 with a 97.1 rating.

    What are your deductions on that, Sherlock?

  65. aarons444 says:

    June 28, 2018 at 4:54 pm

    As a defensive unit, I definitively proved that yes, the Pats have had some average to flat out bad defenses during the Brady era, and not just your empty “13 of 16” point. Indisputable.
    ======

    In your mind, sure.

    I know better, having watched FAR too many terrible Packer defenses from 2006-present.

    =======================

    I wasn’t comparing the Packers to the Patriots, I don’t know enough about the Packers D. But I proved definitively that the Pats have had some shakey defenses in the Brady era, example 1A being in 2017.

  66. aarons444 says:

    June 29, 2018 at 11:17 am

    Brady has played in 100 games decided by 7 points or less. He’s 69-31 with am 89.4 QB rating.

    Rodgers has played in 61 games decided by 7 points or less. His record; 32-29 with a 97.1 rating.

    What are your deductions on that, Sherlock?

    =========================
    That he’s the all time NFL leader in playoff 4th quarter comebacks for a reason?

  67. A. Rodgers-era Packers defense DVOA
    2008 – 12th (Pats 17th)
    2009 – 2nd (Pats 14th)
    2010 – 2nd (Pats 21st)
    2011 – 25th (Pats 30th)
    2012 – 8th (Pats 15th)
    2013 – 31st (Pats 20th)
    2014- 16th (Pats 12th)
    2015 – 9th (Pats 12th)
    2016 – 20th (Pats 16th)
    2017- 20th (Pats 31st)

    Packers avg, = 14.5th Patriots avg. = 18.8th

    Neither team has had a consistently good defense since Rodgers started in the NFL.

  68. aarons444 says:

    June 28, 2018 at 4:34 pm

    And Pats defense was really good in the early Brady years, but the certainly don’t win those Super Bowls with just an average QB or even Bledsoe.
    ======

    Brady and Bledsoe’s numbers were pretty similar 2002-2004.

    I’d bet Belichick could have won A Ring with him. Definitely not a dynasty with him though.

    ========================

    Yikes, except that Bledsoe/Belichick combo started off 5-13. Then Bledsoe gets hurt and a lightly regarded backup galvanizes the same roster to a Super Bowl win. There’s a reason Belichick stuck with Brady after Bledsoe was healthy enough to play (and who also had recently signed a $100mil deal). Brady obviously wasn’t the fully formed stat monster he’d become later on, but the intangibles and leadership qualities were there.

  69. QB rating in losses
    Rodgers – 85.9
    Brady – 73.9

    QB rating with score tied
    Rodgers – 106.0
    Brady – 98.5

    QB rating, tied under 4:00 to go
    Rodgers – 93.8
    Brady – 58.6

    QB rating, tied under 2:00 to go
    Rodgers – 114.8
    Brady – 68.3

    QB rating when trailing
    Rodgers – 98.0
    Brady – 90.8

    QB rating, trailing under 4:00 to go
    Brady – 88.6
    Rodgers – 82.9

    QB rating, trailing under 2:00 to go
    Brady – 83.4
    Rodgers – 73.7

    Rodgers isn’t any less of a QB than Brady. He arguably better in many respects, aside from those that are most obvious.

    The difference is the organizations they are a part of.

  70. Of course Rodgers is an incredible QB, among the very best ever. Physically he can obviously do more things than the likes of Brady, Brees or Peyton did. Intangibles, leadership, preparation, game smarts…I’d give Brady and Peyton an edge there.

  71. Packers avg, = 14.5th Patriots avg. = 18.8th

    Neither team has had a consistently good defense since Rodgers started in the NFL.
    ======

    So why does the QB that played better (Rodgers) LOSE, while the guy who plays worse on average (Brady) WINS?

    Simple; points allowed

    The Patriots make stops when they need to. The Packers get trampled.

  72. And relying solely on points allowed…which was debunked already, is silly. Again, going in circles. You can shutout the Browns and then give up 30 to the Saints and still have a top tier points allowed defense. Doesn’t mean your defense is among the best.

    Why did the Pats have a “top 5” points allowed defense last year, yet against their toughest opponents, they let up 26.5 pts per game? “Good” defenses are defenses that can win you games against talented offensive teams.

  73. aarons444 says:

    June 29, 2018 at 1:08 pm

    Packers avg, = 14.5th Patriots avg. = 18.8th

    Neither team has had a consistently good defense since Rodgers started in the NFL.
    ======

    So why does the QB that played better (Rodgers) LOSE, while the guy who plays worse on average (Brady) WINS?

    Simple; points allowed

    The Patriots make stops when they need to. The Packers get trampled.

    ===================================

    And QB rating is hardly a complete picture. Offensive line performance, offensive skill position talent, strength/skill of opponent, reg. season/post season, these are all important factors as well.

  74. Why did the Pats have a “top 5” points allowed defense last year, yet against their toughest opponents, they let up 26.5 pts per game? “Good” defenses are defenses that can win you games against talented offensive teams.
    =====

    Other than the Seahawks (2011-present) and Steelers (2004-2012) the Patriots are the best defense overall the last 15 years.

    Absolute fact.

  75. Denver’s has had a great recent run including a Super Bowl based almost solely on their defense, Baltimore obviously, and since 2012, both Arizona and Carolina have had consistently good defenses. Arizona has been a top 7 DVOA defense every year since 2012. That’s a much, much better showing than the Pats over that stretch.

  76. aarons444 says:

    June 29, 2018 at 2:05 pm

    Why did the Pats have a “top 5” points allowed defense last year, yet against their toughest opponents, they let up 26.5 pts per game? “Good” defenses are defenses that can win you games against talented offensive teams.
    =====

    Other than the Seahawks (2011-present) and Steelers (2004-2012) the Patriots are the best defense overall the last 15 years.

    Absolute fact.

    ======================================

    Where’s the evidence? And that doesn’t answer the question I posed. And limiting it to last 15 years actually makes it worse for the Pats argument as it would omit the good defenses they had from ’01-’03. Brady would love to have one of those units today.

  77. 13 of 16 seasons top 10 scoring defense
    7 of 16 seasons in the top 5.. 5 of the Super Bowl seasons
    4 seasons #1 or #2.. 3 of which they won the Super Bowl

    12 years in a row they’ve been top 10 in point differential.. 7 times they led the League in that category.. 5 of those seasons they went to the SB.

    There is no single greater number relating to wins than points, for or against.

    Disagree. Be my guest.

    As I’ve said, I know what Rodgers would be doing on those types of teams.

  78. “There is no single greater number relating to wins than points, for or against.”

    Too bad you have provided zero evidence that regular season points average somehow is the best indicator. Its disappointing that you don’t have more to rest your argument on. I’ve already proven this false, definitively and conclusively. You still think the 2017 Pats were a top 5 defense when no NFL expert or in depth statistic would back that up. And you have no answer STILL, as to why the Pats 2017 defense was so averge to just plain bad against good opponents?

    You say the Pats have had one of the top 3 defenses of the last 15 years with no proof and no counterpoint to their up and down DVOA’s or uneven performance against quality opponents.

  79. Funny thing is, we’ve had this discussion in the past, as it relates to how great Belichick is, and I believe we landed on the same side of the fence.

  80. Chill_Donahue says:
    June 29, 2018 at 4:16 pm
    “There is no single greater number relating to wins than points, for or against.”

    Too bad you have provided zero evidence that regular season points average somehow is the best indicator. Its disappointing that you don’t have more to rest your argument on. I’ve already proven this false, definitively and conclusively. You still think the 2017 Pats were a top 5 defense when no NFL expert or in depth statistic would back that up. And you have no answer STILL, as to why the Pats 2017 defense was so averge to just plain bad against good opponents?

    You say the Pats have had one of the top 3 defenses of the last 15 years with no proof and no counterpoint to their up and down DVOA’s or uneven performance against quality opponents.
    —————-
    Bottom line is…

    With Brady…2017 AFC Champions. Without Brady- miss playoffs
    With Brady…2016 SB Champions. Without- Wild Card one and done at best
    With Brady…2015 AFC Championship appearance. Without- miss playoffs
    With Brady…2014 SB Champions. Without- Wild Card one and done at best.
    With Brady…2011 AFC Champions. Without- miss playoffs
    With Brady…2007 AFC Champioms. Without- miss playoffs

    And so on.

    Brady didn’t benefit squat from a defense. It was mostly his doing. Period. Stone cold hard fact.

    #FactsAreFacts
    #TruthIsTruth

  81. Oh good! Random conjecture, my favorite.

    Rodgers + Belichick, 2007-present; undefeated 11 seasons in a row.

    Brady on any other team = wannabe Eli Manning.

  82. aarons444 says:
    July 2, 2018 at 10:49 am
    Oh good! Random conjecture, my favorite.

    Rodgers + Belichick, 2007-present; undefeated 11 seasons in a row.

    Brady on any other team = wannabe Eli Manning.
    ——
    Except Rodgers is a GB Packer and that would be no different whether Brady is playing or not. Your analogy is irrelevant 🙂

  83. How good or successful would Brady be without Belichick? Nobody knows for sure.

    I happen to think he still would be great and very successful! This is not just because Im a Patriots fan, there are actually many tangible and sound reasons for thinking this would be the case, all of which I would be happy to debate with anyone. 🙂

    I just think it’s interesting that most criticism of Brady as a QB today is using logic that is stuck way back in 2002.

    🙂

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