CN105719062A  Method for assessing risks and weak links of power grid, with double fault probability characteristics considered  Google Patents
Method for assessing risks and weak links of power grid, with double fault probability characteristics considered Download PDFInfo
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 CN105719062A CN105719062A CN201610028535.9A CN201610028535A CN105719062A CN 105719062 A CN105719062 A CN 105719062A CN 201610028535 A CN201610028535 A CN 201610028535A CN 105719062 A CN105719062 A CN 105719062A
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 G06Q—DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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Abstract
Provided is a method for assessing risks and weak links of a power grid, with double fault probability characteristics considered. Firstly, system basic technical data, system running constraint condition data and component reliability data are acquired from an electric power system planning department. Then, the basic power flow distribution situation of the system is calculated. According to the load shedding amount and the system N1 fault state probability of the N1 condition and the load shedding amount and the system N2 fault state approximate probability of the N2 condition, risk participation factors of the Expected Power Not Supplied (EPNS) of the system of an electric generator or power transmission equipment are calculated. The risk participation factors are ranked. If the risk participation factor of some component is relatively large, then the component is relatively weak in the power grid and is a weak link of the power grid. In the invention, since double fault and probability information is considered, calculation results are relatively accurate and achieve relatively great reference value. The method of the invention significantly reduces computing resource consumption and shortens the computing time while guaranteeing the accuracy of system probability indexes.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to Electric Power Network Planning technical field, relate to a kind of electrical network wind considering probability and double fault
Danger and weak link appraisal procedure.
Background technology
In the Power System Planning stage, the assessment most typical method of electric network security is N1 static security analysis.
After this criterion calls arbitrarily disconnects an element in power system, system remains to keep safe operation, i.e. N1
Criterion.This kind of method be widely applied at present power system planning, design, the link such as operation.But,
The serious power outage repeatedly occurred promotes it was recognized that the N1 criterion that uses for many years of power industry, the most not
Be enough to keep the rational risk level of power system.
N1 criteria evaluation method two subject matters of existence: 1) element in network is not carried out probabilistic Modeling,
The consequence that fault causes can only be provided, but cannot provide the probabilistic information of this event of failure, along with Electric Power Network Planning
The uncertain factor being faced with gets more and more, and is difficult to obtain preferably in terms of solving probabilistic problem
Effect.2) furthermore, N1 criterion is single element fault criterion, in current complicated network system,
The major accident multiple failure often that occurs of system causes, and this situation N1 criterion cannot consider.
In order to solve the abovementioned two problems of tradition N1 criterion, occur in that power system based on Risk Theory
Methods of risk assessment.Compared with previous methods, risk assessment can by accident occur probability with produce consequence (as
Economic loss etc.) the order of severity combine, risk and benefit to system are considered as a whole, by system
Economic security index quantify.But, in order to obtain system index accurately, it is necessary for carrying out greatly
The Monte Carlo sampling of amount, which results in calculating resource consumption big, calculates timeconsuming long problem.Especially should
Being used in practical power systems, the calculating time generally requires tens hours, greatly limit its application.
Summary of the invention
For overcoming the problems of the prior art, it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of result of calculation more accurate,
Save the calculating time and power grid risk level and weak link can be given, the electric power of reference is provided for planning personnel
System evaluation method.
For achieving the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme that:
A kind of power grid risk considering double probability of malfunction characteristic and weak link appraisal procedure, including following step
Rapid:
Step 1: obtain system basic technical data from Power System Planning department, system runs constraints number
According to, component reliability data；
System basic technical data include node data, transmission line data, transformator data, load data with
And alternator data；
System run constraints include each generating set exert oneself upper lower limit value, reactive source is idle exerts oneself bound
Value, node voltage upper lower limit value and Branch Power Flow upper lower limit value；
Component reliability data include the forced outage rate FOR of element i_{i}；
Step 2: calculate the basic trend distribution situation of system；
Step 3: consider N1 situation: on the basis of the trend distribution situation of basis, faultfree is broken one by one in step 2
Exploitation motor, circuit, transformator carry out Load flow calculation after single element, checks Power grid structure change
The outoflimit situation of the power of circuit and transformator front and back；If creating the feelings that power is outoflimit or trend does not restrains
Condition, then use optimal load flow model to carry out cutting load, record cutting load amount, and calculate system N1 fault shape
The probability that state occurs；
Step 4: consider N2 situation: on the basis of trend distribution situation, gradually faultfree disconnection is sent out in step 2
Motor, circuit, transformator carry out after any two element Load flow calculation again, checks Power grid structure
The outoflimit situation of the power of circuit and transformator before and after change；If created, power is outoflimit or trend does not restrains
Situation, then use optimal load flow model to carry out cutting load, record cutting load amount, and calculate system N2 therefore
The approximation probability that barrier state occurs；
Step 5: the probability that the cutting load amount obtained according to step 3 and system N1 malfunction occur, and
Cutting load amount that step 4 obtains and the approximation probability that system N2 malfunction occurs, use probability weight
Mode calculates systematic electricity shortfall probability LOLP when considering double fault and underpower expected value EPNS；
Step 6: according to the systematic electricity shortfall probability LOLP and underpower expected value EPNS of step 5,
Calculate each electromotor or the transmission facility contribution situation to system power deficiency expected value EPNS, i.e. risk to participate in
The factor；
Step 7: the risk participation factors of electromotor each to whole system and transmission facility is ranked up, if certain is first
The biggest then this element of risk participation factors of part is the weakest in electrical network, belongs to the weak link of electrical network.
The probability P that in described step 3, system N1 malfunction occurs_{k,N1}Obtained by formula (1):
P_{k,N1}=FOR_{i}∏_{N1}(1FOR_{j}) (1)
In above formula, i is the element broken down, and j is the element not broken down, FOR_{i}It is forcing of element i
Outage rate, ∏_{N1}(1FOR_{j}) it is that beyond element i, the troubleproof probability of all elements is longpending.
The approximation probability P that in described step 4, system N2 malfunction occurs_{k,N2}Obtained by formula (2):
P_{k,N2}=FOR_{m}×FOR_{n} (2)
In above formula, FOR_{n}And FOR_{m}It is the forced outage rate of fault element n and m respectively.
In described step 5, systematic electricity shortfall probability LOLP and underpower expected value EPNS is by formula (3)
Obtain with formula (4):
LOLP=1∏_{k∈I}(1P_{k}) (3)
EPNS=∑_{k∈I}P_{k}W_{cut,k} (4)
In both the above formula, it is that all meetings obtained in step 3 and step 4 cause system cutting load
The set of N1 and N2 malfunction；P_{k}It it is the probability of system fault condition k generation；W_{cut,k}It is at system
Cutting load amount after being adjusted by optimal load flow when malfunction k.
In described step 6, the risk participation factors of each electromotor or transmission facility is obtained by formula (5):
R_{Loss,i}=(∑_{k∈A}W_{cut,k}P_{k})/EPNS (5)
In above formula, R_{Loss,i}Being the risk participation factors of transmission facility i, A is all in transmission facility i fault
There is to lose the malfunction of load in simultaneity factor.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention is:
1) in the assessment probability index of system, it is accurate that the present invention has result of calculation simultaneously, calculates the shortest
Advantage.Contrasting traditional N1 criterion, in the present invention, the method for proposition is owing to only need to consider double fault,
Greatly reduce the system mode number needing to be estimated, decrease calculating resource consumption, when shortening calculating
Between；And owing to the probability that double above fault occurs in electrical network is the least, institute of the present invention extracting method still may be used
To calculate the probability level with high accuracy.
2) finding in power system weak link, the present invention assesses based on probability N2, gives risk ginseng
With level of factor, compensate for tradition risk assessment and carry out mainly around node load, and the most directly characterize
The index defect of Net Frame of Electric Network importance.And according to risk participation factors index, can preferably grasp electrical network
In may produce the Net Frame of Electric Network weak link of serious consequence because of fault.
Power department is mainly based upon deterministic N1 standard to the risk of electrical network and the assessment of weak link at present
Then, the present invention proposes a set of brandnew complete electric network reliability and weak link appraisal procedure, contrasts base
In the Model in Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems of Monte Carlo simulation, the present invention can ensure that system probability level is certain
While degree of accuracy, greatly reduce calculating resource consumption, shorten the calculating time.The method can become tradition
The important supplement of certainty criterion, has bigger using value in China's Power System Planning field, gram
Having taken N1 criterion in prior art and can not reflect probabilistic information, result of calculation is inaccurate and power system can
The problem calculating overlong time by property assessment.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is power grid risk of the present invention and the calculation process schematic diagram of weak link assessment.
Detailed description of the invention
The invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, but present disclosure is not limited solely to this.
In the present invention, element includes electromotor, transformator and transmission line of electricity.
When applying institute's extracting method of the present invention, need first to obtain related data from Electric Power Network Planning department.From electrical network
System basic technical data, system that planning department obtains run constraints data, component reliability data；
System basic technical data include node data, transmission line data, transformator data, load data with
And alternator data；
System run constraints data include each generating set exert oneself upper lower limit value, reactive source is idle exert oneself on
Lower limit, node voltage upper lower limit value and Branch Power Flow upper lower limit value.
In addition to the above master data being used for Load flow calculation, in addition it is also necessary to acquisition component reliability data:
Component reliability data include the forced outage rate of element (electromotor, transformator and transmission line of electricity) i
FOR_{i}。
See Fig. 1, after Electric Power Network Planning department obtains abovementioned information, the most successively electrical network is examined
Consider risk and the weak link assessment of probability and double fault.
Step 1, obtains the power system basic technical data of planning from Power System Planning department.
Step 2, calculates the basic trend distribution situation of system.
Step 3, it is considered to all N1 malfunctions, i.e. step 2 basis Load flow calculation on the basis of one by one without
Fault carries out Load flow calculation after disconnecting the single elements such as electromotor, circuit, transformator, check Net Frame of Electric Network knot
The result such as the outoflimit situation of power of circuit and transformator before and after structure change.If it is outoflimit or damp to create power
The situation that stream is not restrained, then utilize with the system minimum object function of cutting load amount, it is considered to operation of power networks retrains
The optimal load flow model of condition, it is judged that system the need of excision load, if desired cutting load, then records this
Time cutting load amount, and calculate current system N1 malfunction occur probability.The element that note is currently cutoff
For i, the then probability P that current system N1 malfunction occurs_{k,N1}As shown in formula (1).
P_{k,N1}=FOR_{i}∏_{N1}(1FOR_{j}) (1)
In above formula, ∏_{N1}(1FOR_{j}) it is that beyond element i, the troubleproof probability of all elements is longpending.
It should be noted that the currently practical operation electrical network overwhelming majority meets N1 criterion, i.e. can skip
This step；But the electrical network of new planning differs and meets N1 criterion surely, it is still desirable to this step.
Step 4, it is considered to all N2 malfunctions, the most in step 2 on the basis of Load flow calculation the most without reason
Barrier disconnects and carries out Load flow calculation in electromotor, circuit, transformator after any two element again, checks electrical network
The result such as the outoflimit situation of power of circuit and transformator before and after grid structure change.If it is outoflimit to create power
Or the situation that trend does not restrains, then utilize with the system minimum object function of cutting load amount, it is considered to electrical network is transported
The optimal load flow model of row constraint condition, it is judged that system is the need of excision load, and if desired excision load is then
Record cutting load amount now, and calculate the approximation probability that current system N2 malfunction occurs.Note is current
The element cutoff is m and n, then the approximation probability P that current system N2 malfunction occurs_{k,N2}Such as formula (2)
Shown in.
P_{k,N2}=FOR_{m}×FOR_{n} (2)
In above formula, FOR_{m}And FOR_{n}It is element m and the forced outage rate of element n respectively.
Step 5, the probability occurred according to the cutting load amount obtained in step 3 and current system N1 malfunction,
The mode using probability weight calculates system index loss of load probability LOLP when considering double fault and power
Not enough expected value EPNS.Shown in its expression formula such as formula (3) and formula (4).
LOLP=1∏_{k∈I}(1P_{k}) (3)
EPNS=Σ_{k∈I}P_{k}W_{Cut, k} (4)
In both the above formula, I is the N1 that all meetings obtained in step 3 and step 4 cause system cutting load
Set with N2 malfunction；P_{k}It it is the probability of system fault condition k generation；W_{cut,k}It is that system is in event
Cutting load amount after being adjusted by optimal load flow during barrier state k.
Step 6, in order to embody the different transmission facility contribution situation to system power deficiency expected value EPNS,
Find out the weak link of electrical network, according to systematic electricity shortfall probability LOLP and the underpower expectation of step 5
Value EPNS, calculates each electromotor or transmission facility (transmission facility includes circuit, transformator) to system power
The contribution situation of not enough expected value EPNS, i.e. risk participation factors, as shown in formula (5).
R_{Loss,i}==(∑_{keA}W_{cut,k}P_{k})/EPNS (5)
In above formula, R_{Loss,i}Being the risk participation factors of transmission facility i, A is all in transmission facility i fault
There is to lose the malfunction of load in simultaneity factor.
Step 7: the risk participation factors of electromotor each to whole system and transmission facility is ranked up, if certain
The risk participation factors of element is relatively big, illustrates that the impact that it breaks down is more serious, and belong in electrical network is thin
Weak link.
The present invention proposes a kind of power grid risk considering double probability of malfunction characteristic and weak link appraisal procedure,
And electric network reliability index and the weak link confession planning personnel's reference considering under double failure condition can be given at.
The electrical network appraisal procedure that the present invention is carried has two functions: 1, assess the risk indicator of system, and 2, find out
The weak link of Net Frame of Electric Network.
First, the present invention is by assessing all double malfunctions, and calculates its probability occurred, with weighting
Mode obtain the risk indicator of system；Second, the present invention proposes the concept of risk participation factors, by meter
Calculate different elements and the contribution situation of EPNS is found out the weak link in electrical network.Contrast traditional N1 criterion,
Due to the fact that and consider double fault and probabilistic information, result of calculation is the most accurate, has more reference value；
Contrasting Model in Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems based on Monte Carlo simulation, the present invention can ensure that system probability refers to
While marking certain degree of accuracy, greatly reduce calculating resource consumption, shorten the calculating time.To sum up, the present invention
There is in the Power System Planning of current China preferable application prospect, can be as power network planning scheme
Effectively appraisal procedure.
Claims (5)
1. the power grid risk considering double probability of malfunction characteristic and weak link appraisal procedure, it is characterised in that:
Comprise the following steps:
Step 1: obtain system basic technical data from Power System Planning department, system runs constraints number
According to, component reliability data；
System basic technical data include node data, transmission line data, transformator data, load data with
And alternator data；
System run constraints include each generating set exert oneself upper lower limit value, reactive source is idle exerts oneself bound
Value, node voltage upper lower limit value and Branch Power Flow upper lower limit value；
Component reliability data include the forced outage rate FOR of element i_{i}；
Step 2: calculate the basic trend distribution situation of system；
Step 3: consider N1 situation: on the basis of the trend distribution situation of basis, faultfree is broken one by one in step 2
Exploitation motor, circuit, transformator carry out Load flow calculation after single element, checks Power grid structure change
The outoflimit situation of the power of circuit and transformator front and back；If creating the feelings that power is outoflimit or trend does not restrains
Condition, then use optimal load flow model to carry out cutting load, record cutting load amount, and calculate system N1 fault shape
The probability that state occurs；
Step 4: consider N2 situation: on the basis of trend distribution situation, gradually faultfree disconnection is sent out in step 2
Motor, circuit, transformator carry out after any two element Load flow calculation again, checks Power grid structure
The outoflimit situation of the power of circuit and transformator before and after change；If created, power is outoflimit or trend does not restrains
Situation, then use optimal load flow model to carry out cutting load, record cutting load amount, and calculate system N2 therefore
The approximation probability that barrier state occurs；
Step 5: the probability that the cutting load amount obtained according to step 3 and system N1 malfunction occur, and
Cutting load amount that step 4 obtains and the approximation probability that system N2 malfunction occurs, use probability weight
Mode calculates systematic electricity shortfall probability LOLP when considering double fault and underpower expected value EPNS；
Step 6: according to the systematic electricity shortfall probability LOLP and underpower expected value EPNS of step 5,
Calculate each electromotor or the transmission facility contribution situation to system power deficiency expected value EPNS, i.e. risk to participate in
The factor；
Step 7: the risk participation factors of electromotor each to whole system and transmission facility is ranked up, if certain is first
The biggest then this element of risk participation factors of part is the weakest in electrical network, belongs to the weak link of electrical network.
2. a kind of power grid risk as claimed in claim 1 and weak link appraisal procedure, it is characterised in that: institute
State the probability P that in step 3, system N1 malfunction occurs_{K, N1}Obtained by formula (1):
P_{K, N1}=FOR_{i}Π_{N1}(1FOR_{j}) (1)
In above formula, i is the element broken down, and j is the element not broken down, FOR_{i}It is forcing of element i
Outage rate, Π_{N1}(1FOR_{j}) it is that beyond element i, the troubleproof probability of all elements is longpending.
3. a kind of power grid risk as claimed in claim 1 and weak link appraisal procedure, it is characterised in that: institute
State the approximation probability P that in step 4, system N2 malfunction occurs_{K, N2}Obtained by formula (2):
P_{K, N2}=FOR_{m}×FOR_{n} (2)
In above formula, FOR_{n}And FOR_{m}It is the forced outage rate of fault element n and m respectively.
4. a kind of power grid risk as claimed in claim 1 and weak link appraisal procedure, it is characterised in that: institute
State in step 5 systematic electricity shortfall probability LOLP and underpower expected value EPNS by formula (3) and formula (4)
Obtain:
LOLP=1Π_{k∈I}(1P_{k}) (3)
EPNS=∑_{k∈I}P_{k}W_{Cut, k} (4)
In both the above formula, I is that all meetings obtained in step 3 and step 4 cause system cutting load
The set of N1 and N2 malfunction；P_{k}It it is the probability of system fault condition k generation；W_{Cut, k}It is at system
Cutting load amount after being adjusted by optimal load flow when malfunction k.
5. a kind of power grid risk as claimed in claim 1 and weak link appraisal procedure, it is characterised in that: institute
The risk participation factors stating each electromotor or transmission facility in step 6 is obtained by formula (5):
R_{Loss, i}=(∑_{k∈A}W_{Cut, k}P_{k})/EPNS (5)
In above formula, R_{Loss, i}Being the risk participation factors of transmission facility i, A is all in transmission facility i fault
There is to lose the malfunction of load in simultaneity factor.
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CN109583779A (en) *  20181206  20190405  重庆大学  A kind of weakness elements of electricgas interacted system determine method 
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CN101446990A (en) *  20080818  20090603  中国电力科学研究院  Method for appraising voltage stability in case of large disturbance probability 
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