PFT’s Week Five picks

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After three sluggish weeks of picking games, I finally found my groove, going 12-3 in Week Four and opening up a four-game lead over MDS, who was 9-6.

For the year, I’ve nudged my record to 37-26. MDS stands at 33-30.

This week, we disagree on only one game. For all of the Week Five picks, scroll down. For the weekly “Best Bets,” check out the video that soon will be attached to this post.

In that category, I was 0-3 last week, and MDS was 1-1-1. For the year, I’m 5-6-1. He’s 4-7-1.

Colts at Patriots

MDS’s take: Any doubts that anyone had about the Patriots should have been erased last week. New England remains one of the best teams in the AFC.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 31, Colts 17.

Florio’s take: The rivalry is back on. And then the game will begin.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 42, Colts 17.


Titans at Bills

MDS’s take: I’m starting to think I sold the Titans short this year. I certainly think they’ll get to Josh Allen often and shut down Buffalo’s offense.

MDS’s pick: Titans 20, Bills 10.

Florio’s take: It’s a Music City Miracle reunion game, but Mike Vrabel’s Titans make their own magic. 

Florio’s pick: Titans 20, Bills 17.


Falcons at Steelers

MDS’s take: The Steelers’ backs are to the wall as they’ve fallen behind both Baltimore and Cincinnati. I think they’ll get the big win they need at home.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 28, Falcons 27.

Florio’s take: The Steelers lead the all-time series 13-2-1, and the Falcons have never beaten the Steelers in Pittsburgh. They’ll have to wait eight years for their next opportunity.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 33, Falcons 27.


Broncos at Jets

MDS’s take: The Broncos are coming off a heartbreaking loss, but they should bounce back against a Jets offense that is barely even playing the same sport as the Chiefs offense that Denver faced on Monday night.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 17, Jets 14.

Florio’s take: The Jets chase a three-game losing streak with a three-game home stand. It gets off to a rough start.

Florio’s pick: Broncos 27, Jets 17.


Jaguars at Chiefs

MDS’s take: The Jaguars have the defense that could slow down Kansas City’s offense. But “slow down” does not mean “stop.”

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 21, Jaguars 17.

Florio’s take: Irresistible force meets immovable object. Which means that the game will come down to whether Kansas City’s so-so defense can slow down Jacksonville’s so-so offense. Advantage, so-so defense.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 24.


Packers at Lions

MDS’s take: Aaron Rodgers will outplay Matthew Stafford, as he so often has through a decade of NFC North battles.

MDS’s pick: Packers 27, Lions 20.

Florio’s take: Aaron Rodgers has been talking a lot about drinking scotch lately. Lions fans will need some of it on Sunday night, and not for celebratory purposes.

Florio’s pick: Packers 27, Lions 20.


Ravens at Browns

MDS’s take: Baker Mayfield will take some lumps against a Baltimore defense that is one of the best in the NFL.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 28, Browns 17.

Florio’s take: The old Browns make their annual trip home to face the new Browns. And even though the new Browns are finally the new Browns, the old Browns continue to be the same old Ravens.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 24, Browns 20.


Giants at Panthers

MDS’s take: Eli Manning just isn’t making the plays the Giants need him to make. Cam Newton will make plays with his arm and his legs as the Panthers win this one easily.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 30, Giants 17.

Florio’s take: The team Dave Gettleman built hosts the team Dave Gettleman hopes to rebuild. Advantage, finished product.

Florio’s pick: Panthers 31, Giants 20.


Dolphins at Bengals

MDS’s take: A good game between two first-place AFC team. I’ll take the home team.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 28, Dolphins 21.

Florio’s take: It won’t be easy for the Dolphins to quickly forget about the drubbing they endured in New England. Especially since the Bengals are better than they were expected to be this year.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 24, Dolphins 20.


Raiders at Chargers

MDS’s take: Jon Gruden waited a long time for his first win in his return to Oakland. He’ll have to wait a while for his second win as well.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 26, Raiders 20.

Florio’s take: The Raiders host the Chargers in L.A. The Chargers will win yet again as the perpetual road team.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 24, Raider 20.


Cardinals at 49ers

MDS’s take: The Cardinals may be the worst team in the league right now. Josh Rosen is better than Sam Bradford, but not enough better to get Arizona a road victory.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 20, Cardinals 13.

Florio’s take: Once the worst home-and-home series the NFL had to offer, this one is slipping back toward that distinction. The Cardinals looked better than expected with Josh Rosen, the 49ers looked better than expected with C.J. Beathard. Edge goes to the home team.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 24, Cardinals 20.


Vikings at Eagles

MDS’s take: This is a big one, as the 2-2 Eagles and 1-2-1 Vikings both need to turn things around in a hurry. I like the defending champs.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 24, Vikings 17.

Florio’s take: The Vikings had extra time to get ready for an Eagles team that went deep into overtime. Neither team is what it was a year ago, but the Vikings should be able to exorcise their biggest demon from 2017.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 30, Eagles 27.


Rams at Seahawks

MDS’s take: The Rams have an opportunity to run away with the NFC West, and with a win here they’ll be well on their way to doing just that.

MDS’s pick: Rams 30, Seahawks 20.

Florio’s take: Seattle has rebounded nicely since starting the year 0-2. But the Rams are one of the best teams we’ve seen in recent years, and it will be very hard for the Seahawks to overcome a team that isn’t just balanced but great on both sides of the ball.

Florio’s pick: Rams 27, Seahawks 21.


Cowboys at Texans

MDS’s take: J.J. Watt has an incredible five sacks and four forced fumbles after spending two years dealing with injuries. He’ll make Dak Prescott‘s life miserable.

MDS’s pick: Texans 17, Cowboys 7.

Florio’s take: The Cowboys have been consistently inconsistent this year, and the better-than-their-record-would-suggest Texans will have extra incentive to find a way to win the latest installment of their once-every-four-years rivalry. 

Florio’s pick: Texans 24, Cowboys 20.


Washington at Saints

MDS’s take: Drew Brees is four away from 500 career touchdown passes, and he would love to do it at home in prime time.

MDS’s pick: Saints 28, Washington 20.

Florio’s take: Washington has performed better than anyone would have expected, but the Saints finally are performing the way that everyone expected. Mark Ingram is back, and the Saints are ready to roll.

Florio’s pick: Saints 30, Washington 20.

63 responses to “PFT’s Week Five picks

  1. God I hope the Rams don’t overlook this game. Wilson is still lethal no matter how bad the team is around him. This is a must win game for the Sea chickens too.

  2. I’m a Seahawks fan and I have a hard time thinking they will be able to stay within 2 touchdowns of the Rams and that’s being generous. Which is fine. They owe us about a decade of straight losses to even things out.

  3. Falcons over Steelers – this 1 is hard to decide because both are struggling… Steelers would have lost to the Bucs if the defense had not scored… Falcons have no trouble scoring so if they can help the Steelers stay under 30 points, the Falcons get the win.

    Panthers over Giants – The Panthers aren’t flashy but they find ways to win… Giants are still trying to claw their way out of recent woes.

    Saints over Redskins – one thing the Saints are consistent at each season is going on winning streaks… The Redskins won’t be able to match points for points…

    Bye over Bucs – Bucs are 1 of few teams that lose, even on their day off. {LoL}

  4. You sure are being generous with the predicted scores of the Rams-Seahawks game. I’m thinking more like 34-10.

  5. Rams, Panthers, Falcons…. against the spread not the 5 dollar office pool. That Niners/Cards game could get worse ratings than dancing with the stars.

  6. “Welcome to the NFL, Baker Mayfield.”

    – Terrell Suggs

    Ravens 30
    Browns 13

    Also, I think this is the first time I’ve ever seen MDS and Florio predict the exact same final score in their picks (Packers/Lions).

  7. Hawknballs says:
    October 4, 2018 at 12:22 pm
    I’m a Seahawks fan and I have a hard time thinking they will be able to stay within 2 touchdowns of the Rams and that’s being generous. Which is fine. They owe us about a decade of straight losses to even things out.

    I completely agree with the first part. As far as the second part, the Hawks have a 9-7 record against the Rams in the Pete Carroll era. That’s hardly dominance.

  8. Hopefully Brady will help Dorsett will run up the score against his former team, forcing the Colts to spin their Excuse-O-Wheel and blame the dewpoint or a smelly garbage can behind their bench or whatever.

  9. Call me nuts, but if a defense gives up 500 yards of offense, with no sign of getting better, you can’t really pick that team to win against the defending champs.

    The Bears have a better chance of winning this week than do the Vikings.

  10. Patriots 27 Colts 14 I think the Colts will actually keep up for a half until Michel, White, and Edelman grind the clock out with runs and medium range passes. Luck will turn over the ball which will ice the game. Ravens 20 Browns 13 I think Mayfield is going to get clobbered. Cowboys 17 Texans 10 the Dallas defense will win this one.

  11. Vikings at Eagles. Who knows? But, I’m not picking my Vikings for any game until I see less receivers running free in the 20-25 yard range. Seriously. On pace for twice as many deep passes given up as last year? With the same bodies playing? I gotta put this on Coach Zim early on. If the defense figures it out, then the Vikings win. A huge IF.

  12. Ya know why you easily beat MDS last week, Florio? Because ALL MDS does is look at the Vegas line and pick the favorite. Take this week as an example. He picks exactly one game against the Vegas spread (Broncos – Jets.) You usually do the same thing except you picked several against the spread last week. MDS – to pick the winners straight up at 52% is awful. There are many sharps in Vegas that beat the vig and hit higher than that against the spread.

  13. I dont believe Buffalo will beat the Titans either and would be more than happy to see the Bills put up 17 points in a loss as you predict, but I dont believe they will
    …A bills fan…

  14. Florio’s take: The Raiders host the Chargers in L.A.
    ———————–
    That soccer stadium will be taken over by Raider Nation. Way more popular there than the Chargers.

  15. I think Matty Ice and Julio Jones will absolutely shred the Steelers secondary and the Steelers still have no running game.

    Falcons 30
    Steelers 21

  16. I would not be surprised to see the Colts take the lead into the halftime locker room.

    I would not be surprised to see the Patriots make halftime adjustments and win the game.

  17. “Florio’s take: Irresistible force meets immovable object. Which means that the game will come down to whether Kansas City’s so-so defense can slow down Jacksonville’s so-so offense. Advantage, so-so defense.

    Florio’s pick: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 24.”

    The Chiefs have the worst defense in the league. So-so?

  18. schmitty2 says:
    October 4, 2018 at 12:41 pm
    Hawknballs says:
    October 4, 2018 at 12:22 pm
    I’m a Seahawks fan and I have a hard time thinking they will be able to stay within 2 touchdowns of the Rams and that’s being generous. Which is fine. They owe us about a decade of straight losses to even things out.

    I completely agree with the first part. As far as the second part, the Hawks have a 9-7 record against the Rams in the Pete Carroll era. That’s hardly dominance.
    ________________________________________

    You’re correct, not a dominant head to head record, but considering Seattle’s dominance of the NFC west in general since joining it, the Rams owe seattle a few.

  19. “Hopefully Brady will help Dorsett will run up the score against his former team, forcing the Colts to spin their Excuse-O-Wheel and blame the dewpoint or a smelly garbage can behind their bench or whatever.”

    Screw that I want to see Gronk and Gordon trample and throw the entire Colts secondary out of the club.

  20. I used to think Florio’s pro-Vikings and anti-Eagles bias was in my head. I don’t any more. Why would you pick the Vikings here? Not to say they can’t win. But the Eagles are utterly embarrassed and furious over that loss last week. Even as bad as we played, it was competitive. It’s a 4:25 game, beautiful weather predicted at the Linc, which will be insane by kickoff. The vikings Defense is a fraud. I say birds 30-17.

  21. Teams who have played 70 minutes of football in one game over the last 10 years have gone 1-9 the following week (including 0-4 this season). The Titans beat the Eagles in 69 minutes and 55 seconds. Spots for Vikings and Bills backers.

  22. .
    You have to consider the Falcons as a live underdog at +3. You may like the 57.5 over/under even more.
    .

  23. “I think Matty Ice and Julio Jones will absolutely shred the Steelers secondary and the Steelers still have no running game.”
    It will be more than 2 Falcons shredding the “Still Flirtin”.

  24. I can understand why they are picking the Steelers over the Falcons. The Steelers are at home, need a win, and the Falcons defense sucks…..

  25. dsigrey says:

    October 4, 2018 at 1:31 pm

    Indy won’t score a TD until late in the 4th when it’s junk time. No TY, no running game and Luck will turn the ball over.

    I hope it’s a junk time Hail Mary…who will throw it? That’s the question.

  26. All just guesses! Parity! You never know which team is going to actually show up and play from week to week!

  27. The Falcons are 3 point dogs in Pittsburgh. Take the points and bet the farm. Big Bum has scored 21 points against the Browns, 23 against the Bucs and 14 against the Ravens. He got some garbage yards and 37 points against the Chiefs soft prevent defense but the game was never in doubt. This one won’t be either.

  28. The Raiders possess the #2 offense but the #1 disrespect from the media who rank them among the bottom of the NFL. This week they will make them eat their words. Raiders 37 Chargers 31

  29. MDS’s take: The Jaguars have the defense that could slow down Kansas City’s offense. But “slow down” does not mean “stop.”

    That was so well said.

  30. screamingyellowzonkers says:
    Lions in a shocker !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    ==

    At this point in the season a Lions win over the Packers at home would be a mild upset at best.
    Your Vikings getting manhandled at home by the Buffalo Bills? Now THAT was a shocker, not to mention a little embarrassing !!!!!!!!!!

  31. I’ve been picking games and stocks since 1972 with a simple formula. Winners win and losers lose. The trend is your friend.

  32. These charger/Raider games are always weird it seems like, if you told me either team won by 30 or by 3, I’d believe you (Raiders 27 – Chargers 24 by the way)

  33. J V says:
    October 4, 2018 at 1:28 pm
    “Florio’s take: Irresistible force meets immovable object. Which means that the game will come down to whether Kansas City’s so-so defense can slow down Jacksonville’s so-so offense. Advantage, so-so defense.

    Florio’s pick: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 24.”

    The Chiefs have the worst defense in the league. So-so?
    —————
    Actually the Chiefs D is ranked 25th and the Jags O is ranked 21st. I’ll take the #1 offense and the 25th ranked defense everyday of the week.

  34. frodoftw7 says:
    October 4, 2018 at 3:02 pm
    The Raiders possess the #2 offense

    —————-

    Please child

  35. I am A hawks fan but I am old and was actually born an LA Rams fan (Not ST Louis) before the Hawks existed so as much I root for the Hawks I love this LAR team. 1979 was a bummer SB loss for me against the Steel Curtain so I hope for a rematch. Only issue is Pit not looking good currently but the Rams look destined. I see it 44-13 Rams this week.

  36. Calling on all Bengal Fans rocky PBS on Sunday. I think they will need the juice a home crowd can give them against a good miami team. Waiting for the DLine to feast, Cuzco if they don’t It could go down to the wire. This is a trap game with the STeelers looming next week.

  37. These guys aren’t any more “expert” than any hardcore objective fan. Writing a blog doesn’t make one an expert. The predictions can be humorous at times, though.

  38. This is one brutal stretch for the Vikes. The Eagles will not lose at home nor for a second straight game nor to a team it crushed in the NFCCG. Eagles 27 Vikes 17.

    The Browns will beat the Ravens. 24-20.

    No way the Chargers are over .500 this early in the season. Chargers storm back from 34-0 deficit to lose w dignity. Raiders 37 Chargers 31.

    Chiefs have one more win in them before the losing begins. Chiefs 28 Jax 20.

    I think the Falcons are the better team but the Steelers win anyway 26-18.

    Jets will surprise the Broncos 23-19.

    Redskins will surprise Saints 23-21.

  39. “citizenstrange says:
    October 4, 2018 at 2:56 pm

    The Falcons are 3 point dogs in Pittsburgh. Take the points and bet the farm. Big Bum has scored 21 points against the Browns, 23 against the Bucs and 14 against the Ravens. He got some garbage yards and 37 points against the Chiefs soft prevent defense but the game was never in doubt. This one won’t be either.”

    “notwhoyouthinkitis says:
    October 4, 2018 at 3:59 pm

    If the Steelers win, you can be sure citizenstrange won’t come around to admit being so wrong. And that includes even a close Falcon win.”

    Yep, exactly as I said, and citizenstrange is nowhere to be found. Classic internet coward.

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