PFT’s Week Six picks

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We’re finally doing better when it comes to picking games. Or more accurately not as poorly.

Last week, I got 10 of 15 games right, with MDS at 9-6.

For the year, I’ve nudged my record to 47-31, which finally puts me over the 60-percent threshold. MDS is five games back, with a 42-36 mark.

This week, we disagree on four of the 15 games. For all of the Week Six picks, scroll down. For the weekly “Best Bets,” check out the video that soon will be attached to this post.

In that category, I was 2-1 last week, and MDS was 0-3. For the year, I’m 7-7-1. He’s 4-10-1.

Eagles at Giants

MDS’s take: Carson Wentz has not played particularly well in his return from last year’s knee injury, but I’m expecting him to have a good game in a division contest the Eagles have to win.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 28, Giants 17.

Florio’s take: The Eagles aren’t what they were a year ago. The Giants may not be, either. At least for one night.

Florio’s pick: Giants 23, Eagles 20.


Buccaneers at Falcons

MDS’s take: Jameis Winston gets his first start of the season against a depleted Falcons secondary, but Matt Ryan will have a bigger game in a close win.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 28, Buccaneers 27.

Florio’s take: Take the over, no matter how high it is.

Florio’s pick: Falcons 45, Buccaneers 38.


Panthers at Washington

MDS’s take: It’s hard to bet on Washington after that ugly performance on Monday night.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 20, Washington 17.

Florio’s take: Short week after a blowout loss could mean another blowout loss for a Washington team that won’t be in first place much longer in the NFC East.

Florio’s pick: Panthers 30, Washington 21.


Seahawks at Raiders

MDS’s take: I have a hunch the Seahawks are heading toward a big decline, and the heartbreaking loss to the Rams took a lot of wind out of their sails. The London games are often unpredictable, and the Raiders should pull the upset.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 20, Seahawks 17.

Florio’s take: This should be the easiest game plan Jon Gruden ever draws up. 1. Give it to Marshawn. 2. Give it to Marshawn. 3. Give it to Marshawn. 4. See steps one through three.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 23, Seahawks 20.


Colts at Jets

MDS’s take: I don’t know if the Jets can replicate all the big plays they had against the Broncos, but I do think Sam Darnold is in for a big game against the Colts’ defense.

MDS’s pick: Jets 24, Colts 21.

Florio’s take: The 1-4 Colts could be 5-0. With extra time to prepare and a Jets team that is inconsistent, the visiting team wins the reunion of an AFC East rivalry.

Florio’s pick: Colts 24, Jets 17.


Cardinals at Vikings

MDS’s take: The Cardinals finally got a win, but they still may be the worst top-to-bottom team in the NFL.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 20, Cardinals 10.

Florio’s take: The Vikings have underachieved at home this year. As they enter a softer spot of the schedule, they can’t continue to screw around with inferior teams.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 31, Cardinals 17.


Steelers at Bengals

MDS’s take: This is the Steelers’ last-gasp chance at staying in the division race. Lose this one and it’s very hard to see them coming back in the AFC North. I think they’ll lose this one.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 28, Steelers 21.

Florio’s take: If the Steelers can avoid digging themselves a deep hole, they can bury the Bengals.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 30, Bengals 20.


Chargers at Browns

MDS’s take: The Browns are an undeniably better team than they were a year ago, but I think they’re going to come back to earth a bit against the Chargers.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 20, Browns 10.

Florio’s take: Never let a good story get in the way of a good pick. The Browns are a good story, but the Chargers are currently a better play.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 27, Browns 21.


Bills at Texans

MDS’s take: This should be an easy home win, as J.J. Watt makes Josh Allen‘s life miserable

MDS’s pick: Texans 17, Bills 3.

Florio’s take: It’s easy to ask how these teams are each 2-3, but for very different reasons.

Florio’s pick: Texans 23, Bills 10.


Bears at Dolphins

MDS’s take: The Bears have looked like world-beaters and the Dolphins have struggled of late, but I think a course correction is coming for both teams.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 21, Bears 20.

Florio’s take: Matt Nagy gets two weeks to prepare for the Dolphins, but it won’t be enough to hang a third straight loss on a Dolphins team that didn’t get to 3-0 accidentally.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 20, Bears 17.


Rams at Broncos

MDS’s take: A cold and perhaps snowy day in Denver won’t be enough to slow down the Rams’ offense.

MDS’s pick: Rams 24, Broncos 17.

Florio’s take: The L.A. defense has been suspect in recent weeks, and the Broncos are getting desperate. Besides, if Case Keenum can’t take down one of his various former teams, he may soon be the former starter in Denver.

Florio’s pick: Broncos 27, Rams 24.


Ravens at Titans

MDS’s take: Joe Flacco is playing a little better this year than he did last year, but I’m not really sold on this idea that he has improved significantly thanks to the presence of Lamar Jackson. I think he’ll have a rough outing in Tennessee.

MDS’s pick: Titans 20, Ravens 13.

Florio’s take: Both teams underachieved in Week Five. The Titans will keep it close, as they always do. This time around, the Ravens should be able to find a way to score a few more points than their foe does.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 16, Titans 13.


Jaguars at Cowboys

MDS’s take: The Jaguars’ ugly loss to the Chiefs has scared me off them. Granted the Cowboys are not the Chiefs, but I think Dallas is going to take a low-scoring game at home.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 10, Jaguars 7.

Florio’s take: The down-up-down-up-down Cowboys are due to have an up week. Their defense should be able to shut down the Jacksonville offense, and the Dallas defense should be able to score enough points to prevail.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 16, Jaguars 12.


Chiefs at Patriots

MDS’s take: The best matchup of the week is on Sunday night, and I think the Chiefs will prove they’re the class of the AFC.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 24, Patriots 21.

Florio’s take: Bill Belichick likes to take away what the opposing offense does best. Rarely does he face an offense that does everything best.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 34, Patriots 31.


49ers at Packers

MDS’s take: This has the potential to be the second consecutive Monday night blowout. I don’t see the 49ers keeping it close in Green Bay against a Packers team that has its back against the wall.

MDS’s pick: Packers 31, 49ers 14.

Florio’s take: If the Packers lose this one, it’s going to be a long year in Green Bay.

Florio’s pick: Packers 30, 49ers 13.

77 responses to “PFT’s Week Six picks

  1. Ahh, I see MDS has figured out he can’t just go with the Vegas line for his picks. Both Florio and MDS picking the Cowboys over the Jags should make all Boy’s fans nervous.

  2. Florio’s take: It’s easy to ask how these teams are each 2-3, but for very different reasons.
    ________________________________________________________________

    Yeah, The difference is the Texans lost to a team(Tennessee)the Bills beat and won against two teams that are very average(Dallas, Indianapolis).

    The Bills three losses are from LAC, Green Bay & Baltimore… Three tough teams.

    Don’t count on this being an easy Texan win Florio.

  3. Patriots game 6. Have you guys not learned anything over the last dozen years? And if you can’t beat the Raiders you suck.

  4. KC’s is suspect, especially now if Berry and Houston are out. The Patriots will have no problem moving the ball and scoring. They just need to do it slow enough to keep the defense off the field as much as possible. Pats 31 – KC 28

  5. Bears are playing close to the best D in the league and the Fins are playing close to the worst offense in the league. My guess is neither one of you guys are putting money on it.

  6. PFT’s week 6 power Rankings: Bears #10, Dolphins #16. Naturally that means Dolphins beat Bears this week. Huh?

  7. I don’t think the Bears lose to the Dolphins, the Jags lose to the Cowboys, or the Colts go 5-0 in even the darkest of timelines. Even Thanos with the power of the 7th brown infinity stone couldn’t force that on the universe.

  8. If the Pats don’t turn it over they’ll win mainly because they are at home and not at Arrowhead ansd KC”s D is atrocious.

    BB will see how Denver defended KC and go from there.

    There’s plenty of film no on Mahomes, too, so I expect some fresh gadgetry from Andy Reid, so there’s that, but Brady will carve up that rebuilding defense and KC will be overwhelmed, especially if NE gets up 14-0 or something that 1st qtr.

    I realize people want to crown a new soup du jour team to convince themselves somehow, some way this is the year, but I watched Denver completely slow down the Chiefs offense and NE’s D is superior to Denver’s. Not debatable.

    This will be that game like last year in Mexico City where everyone wanted to badly for the upstart Raiders to win and be that new soup du jour team, but all it was, was yet another October game that sends NE on a long winning streak.

    KC will move the ball and score, but it won’t be more than what NE does with KC’s horrendous defense.

    34-21 Pats.

  9. PFT’s week 6 power Rankings: Jaguars #7, Cowboys #24. Naturally that means Cowboys beat Jaguars this week. Huh?

  10. The Raiders aren’t going to beat the Seahawks. They meet on a mutual field so no home field advantage. Both teams have a running game to pack to England, but Seahawks have a strong run defense and know Marshawn better than anyone. Russell Wilson is a better QB than Carr, but Carr has better weapons on the outside to throw to. Seahawks have the better defense. Seahawks win.

  11. Keenum is a one hit wonder ,

    He holds every passing record in major college football and STILL wasn’t drafted . Tell anybody anything ???

  12. .
    The Patriots-Chiefs game will be decided on which team can run the ball and control the clock. For the Patriots the game hinges on rookie Sony Michel. If he’s moving the chains and New England is scoring TDs in the red zone, then they have a chance.
    .

  13. Falcons over Bucs – Both struggling on defense and both WERE successful on offense but taking out “the magic” for a guy who has never played at that level will set the Bucs back..
    Fitz accuracy and anticipating throws made them great and JW has neither skills so the receivers return to struggling while the Falcons use this game to correct errors and right their path… 38-17

    Panthers over Redskins – Panthers are rested while Redskins coming off of a short week and a brutal lose… this game will be close… 28-24

  14. Florio’s take: Bill Belichick likes to take away what the opposing offense does best. Rarely does he face an offense that does everything best.

    —————–

    Really? 2001 Rams, Every Colts team from 2003-2009. KC are great, but it’s not the first unstoppable offense the Patriots have faced. The question isn’t the coaching in this one, it’s if the roster is good enough to execute the strategy to stop a team like this.

  15. 6ball says:
    October 11, 2018 at 12:02 pm
    .
    The Patriots-Chiefs game will be decided on which team can run the ball and control the clock. For the Patriots the game hinges on rookie Sony Michel. If he’s moving the chains and New England is scoring TDs in the red zone, then they have a chance.

    ——–

    That’s one way it could go, but it could easily turn into an unhinged shootout too. Really depends on if the Patriots can take away the big plays for KC and tackle well enough to limit the shorter plays and runs to slow KC down. If not, Brady will put the pedal down and we will see a game closer to Steelers-KC. If it goes that way it will come down to a drive or two where one team doesn’t get it in the end zone or throws a pick.

    The KC defense isn’t good enough to stop the Patriots, but they can make a few big plays. Hopefully the Patriots can match.

  16. The Seahawks gave the Rams the most competition they’ve had all year. That took the wind out of their sails and suggests they are about to decline?

    Nice logic.

    Hawks 27
    Raiders 17

  17. The Chiefs defense is last in the NFL in drives allowed, they allow the most points and yards on drives and the 5th highest time of possession. They also allow a dreadful 5.8 yards per rush, also last in the league.

    That profile matches up poorly with the short pass quick release kind of offense the Patriots run, plus Michel has all of a sudden turned into an early OROY threat. Advantage Patriots. 27-17. 🙂

  18. Anything can happen at any given Sunday and I realize the Broncos tend to play better at home, but based on what I saw from their defense last week I don’t know how you think they’re going to slow the Rams offense down.

  19. Florio’s take: The Vikings have underachieved at home this year. As they enter a softer spot of the schedule, they can’t continue to screw around with inferior teams.
    ___________

    Well yeah, but they’ve only played two home games and lost one of them to an inferior team. I don’t know if that necessarily constitutes a trend.

  20. Florio’s take: The L.A. defense has been suspect in recent weeks, and the Broncos are getting desperate. Besides, if Case Keenum can’t take down one of his various former teams, he may soon be the former starter in Denver.
    __________

    We’re supposed to expect the Broncos to beat the Rams because Case Keenum needs to beat one of his former teams to keep his job?

  21. Rodgers realizes that if he throws this game, McCarthy might be out of his hair before the season is even over. Hmmm, win the game to save any semblance of a decent season…or throw the game and get rid of the coach he hates? Decisions decisions.

  22. I hope the Browns continue to fly under the radar. Other than the Jets game, no one has picked them to win anything despite them being undefeated at home. I expect the same outcome this weekend with the Browns winning over the Chargers in regulation.

  23. seabrawk12 says:
    October 11, 2018 at 12:18 pm
    The Seahawks gave the Rams the most competition they’ve had all year. That took the wind out of their sails and suggests they are about to decline?
    ###

    The Seachickens were playing at home and gave up 9 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to lose the game.

    That would be “taking the wind out of their sails”…

  24. Chiefs D has been horrible in giving up yards, yes. But they haven’t been horrible giving up points or on 3rd down this year. And, the pass rush has been in a groove the last several weeks, led by Dee Ford, NOT Justin Houston. Having said that, I think this game turns into a shootout. NE is going to struggle to contain the weapons of the Chiefs as much as KC might struggle to contain NE. In Mahomes I trust!

  25. Lol, yeah Carson Wentz has been the problem:

    3 games played…82/122 67.2% 914 YDS 5 TDs 1 INT

    Clearly isn’t the offensive and defensive lines and secondary sucking. It’s Carson. Do you people actually research before you type?

  26. Andy Reid has the Chiefs’ offense clicking. He plays against Belichick’s team this week. It’s perfect timing for Andy to pull his annual ‘if it works, fix it’ strategy and change what they are doing.

  27. The Pats versus Chiefs game is definitely going to be a shootout neither defense is equipped to stop the weapons on either offense. Mahomes will find Hill and Hunt for a lot of yards and points just as much as the Pats will find White and Edelman for theirs. In the end though I think finally Mahomes makes a mistake and throws a key pick to seal a nailbiter for the Pats 38 to 31. My lock of the week has to be Jets over the Colts 20 to 13 as much as I hate saying it. Darnold might be slightly inconsistent but seems to have a good arm and the Colts have way too many injuries to help Luck. My upset of the week has to be Browns over the Chargers 17 to 10 as the Browns defense will frustrate Rivers and Mayfield will do just enough.

  28. TyLaw…you could be right, but we all know if the Chiefs beat the Pats you will be on the boards blaming the refs and Goodell.

  29. “Kansas City had wide receiver Marcus Kemp practicing at safety on Wednesday, filling in while safeties Eric Berry and Eric Murray were out of practice with injuries, after safety Armani Watts had already been placed on injured reserve. ”

    Sounds like there’s a gaping hole in the middle of the KC secondary

  30. GoodellMustGo says:
    October 11, 2018 at 12:28 pm

    That profile matches up poorly with the short pass quick release kind of offense the Patriots run, plus Michel has all of a sudden turned into an early OROY threat. Advantage Patriots. 27-17

    @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

    Michel has had two good games through five. Miami and Indy. OROY? tylaw,nhpat now you, some kind of crazy in NE

  31. The only way for the cowboys to win is if they kick5-6 field goals against the Jag defense! Zeke barely breaks 50 yards and they can’t score multiple TD’s against bad defenses. Jags win another snoozer!

  32. Chiefs have no problem with planning for B.B. or Tom as is evident in the last couple of regular season games where they we’re completely dominant and an Alex Smith led team hung 40+ on them. The fact that the Pats have owned them in the post season is a chip on their shoulder. The lack of intimidation is an X factor and Chiefs hang another 40+. Can the pats score 50+? That’s what it comes down too.

  33. KCs problems on defense are far far bigger than the problems KCs offense can give the Pats.
    And the dolphins over the Bears? Broncos over the Rams? Don’t see that happening at all

  34. “Carson Wentz hasn’t played particularly well since his return”? He’s completed 67% of his passes for nearly 1,000 yards, 5 touchdowns and only 1 interception in only 3 games! I guess he set the bar TOO high last year!

  35. SMichel is absolutely in the conversation for OROY. Despite a slow start after missing
    training camp, he’s gotten better every gm and is right there w/Barkley in rushing yrds. Ridley is the front-runner, but it’s possible.

  36. The Pats could control the clock with their running and screen game, with potential for big plays down field if the Chief’s move up to try and stop it. The Chief’s can likewise control the clock with their speed and ability to extend plays on a defense that has trouble holding up against these types of QB’s. This game comes down to Red Zone Defense, which has been a New England specialty in their bend/don’t break past. KC may not be healthy enough to match them in that area right now. KC is dead last in giving up passing yards, and bottom 20% against the run, while giving up 26 points per game. New England is in the top half of the league against the pass and run, and in the top 10 scoring defenses, which is almost par for them. Playing at home is a big plus here. Stats for both are skewed a bit due to KC blowouts and New England personnel issues in the early season, but they aren’t that badly off. New England has to avoid helping KC go on any scoring runs. They don’t need the help. Consistent third down conversions and no turnovers is a must because KC will likely be converting third downs much of the time against this Patriots defense. Failure to convert easy third downs is like a turnover. We saw that in the Pat’s/Colts game and it aided the Colts temporary come back. I give a slight edge in maintaining intensity to the home team, but the crowd needs to be in full throat for the Pat’s. I’m glad we have an exciting game on deck!

  37. isithockeyseasonyet says:
    October 11, 2018 at 2:39 pm

    Something tells me you actually think global warming IS a hoax drzzy and if you do, you’re a bigger moron than I could’ve imagined
    _________

    You seem to think you’re pretty smart, so you must have studied this extensively. Why don’t you explain to us all how it works?

  38. Good, keep picking against the Bears. It seems to be working for them. I think Trubisky will come back down to earth but they shouldn’t need 6 TDs to win most games with that defense. And they seem to be learning how to win under Nagy.

  39. Both taking Cowboys over Jags?
    I’m tired of hearing about the big, bad Chiefs. I’ll bet New England is, too.

  40. I noticed Mahommes has a kind of side armed release. If you can keep him in the pocket you might be able to bat down some passes. Just something I noticed as we get to see more of him…

  41. unclebluck says:
    October 11, 2018 at 11:30 am
    The jury is still out on my Bills but the Texans are no better so we’ll see….
    —————-
    Actually, the Texans are better, despite the teams they’ve played. What isn’t better is O’Brien’s play calling. Bills will be a tough win…or loss.

  42. We all know how Belichick outcoached Martz and won the Super Bowl in 2001 with a waiver wire, tougher team. One if the all time great coaching and exhibition of guts in NFL history

  43. fcox91 says:
    October 11, 2018 at 1:09 pm
    Lol, yeah Carson Wentz has been the problem:

    3 games played…82/122 67.2% 914 YDS 5 TDs 1 INT
    *********************************

    Just curious, are you insinuating that throwing 5 TDs in 3 games is good?

  44. patsfan1820 says:
    October 11, 2018 at 1:17 pm
    The Pats versus Chiefs game is definitely going to be a shootout neither defense is equipped to stop the weapons on either offense. Mahomes will find Hill and Hunt for a lot of yards and points just as much as the Pats will find White and Edelman for theirs. In the end though I think finally Mahomes makes a mistake and throws a key pick to seal a nailbiter for the Pats 38 to 31.
    ====================
    The Chiefs may lose, but predicting that Mahomes will cause it by screwing up is just ridiculous. If you’d actually watched him play, you wouldn’t have posted this theory.

  45. I just love reading all the “experts” prediction here. Who all “guarantee” their predictions. Fact is 70% of you will be wrong. How many of you will man up and admit to it? That’s what I thought.

  46. Interesting picks. Think you are right on the Bears, wrong on the Browns, at least by spread. Rams will win easily, Titans will lose, probably easily. Pats will get destroyed. They are not a serious offense, so the Chiefs’ lack of D won’t matter. And that offense will eat up the lack of a Defense (again) in NE. I spot 14.

  47. I agree with Smith, the Packers play well with their backs against the wall. Rodgers will do what he does best – whip them into shape, have them prepared, and dominate this week. Packers 42 49ers 3

  48. The Patriots defensive weakness is team speed. Focus will be on keeping the QB in the pocket and forcing him to beat you on non-broken plays.

    That is the one thing teams have failed to do to KC. Keep the QB in the pocket.

  49. bassplucker says:
    October 11, 2018 at 3:38 pm
    Good, keep picking against the Bears. It seems to be working for them. I think Trubisky will come back down to earth but they shouldn’t need 6 TDs to win most games with that defense. And they seem to be learning how to win under Nagy.
    ————-
    Keep in mind that in 2016 the Vikings were 5-0, went on a bye, became obsessed w their own NFL “sweetheart” status, and started on their 8-8 downward trend. The Bears haven’t really beat ANYONE yet. Seattle w half their team benched, the Cards w Bradford as QB, the Bucs who were destined to fall eventually w Ryan Fitzpatrick. Let’s see how they do against playoff teams. They haven’t been there yet.

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